Joe and Cole each have a 2/3 chance of ending up on a beach that still has an idol hidden 5' from the water well assuming the idol is hidden the same in all 3 camps.
FlowerPower is on a winning streak...
At risk: Ashley, Joe, Jessica,
At risk: Lauren,
At Risk: Joe, Ryan, Lauren, Jessica, Alan
(though you did pick 1/3 of the players remaining to be at Risk this week
Of those 5 I think Alan might be in the biggest trouble if he gets separated from the Heroes.