LAST EDITED ON 10-14-17 AT 06:08 PM (EST)

episode      | 1 | 2 | 3 | total
Ryan     hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 12
Ali      hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 8
Alan     hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 7
Lauren   hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 7
Ben      hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 6
Patrick  hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
Ashley   hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 5
Jessica  heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5
Joe      heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 5
Cole     heal| * | 2 | 2 | 4
Chrissy  hero| 2 | 2 | * | 4
Devon    hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Mike     heal| 3$| * | * | 3
JP       hero| 1 | 1 | * | 2
Desi     heal| 1 | * | 1 | 2
Roark    heal| 1 | * | 1 | 2

F18 Katrina  hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone   hust| * | 2 | 2X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

This week the stars of the show were Ryan, Lauren, and Jessica. Jessica moves from 0 - 4 confessionals, a large jump. I will start with Ryan, who also has the most confessionals of anyone this season.

His first confessional was regarding all of the clothes that Simone left, it was narrational. His second was his opinion on comparing the 2 girls. Ali was in their age range, Lauren didn't have anything going on with anyone so she'd probably be the next one to go. The confessional ended with Patrick waving a machete and chopping in front of Ryan. His next was commenting on Patrick looking for the idol, like Survivor 101, you don't search for it in front of everyone because it doesn't help to build relationships and it makes everyone paranoid. Finally, he notes: Devon and I we are in position where we can kind of dictate the vote. The options now are vote off Lauren, or vote off Pat. This is obviously a big decision and I don’t exactly know what to do yet... We see he and Devon discussing it and Ryan tells him he wants Pat and it will be boys to the merge...Devon is the one that disagreed. And we know how the show ended, it ended with Devon's preference going out. I have to wonder, who is steering the "strategic one" of the partnership?

I feel as though Ryan is becoming the narrator of the tribe, he's commenting on the events and his observations.

Lauren got 4 confessionals and jumped from 2 - 4 as the decoy boot. It was her turn to hustle even more than last week. Her first confessional notes that even though she didn't get any votes, except from Simone, she still feels on the outs. She notes that she's the single mom, and they are the high school kids, she feels like the damn teacher. She continues with her plan noting that at TC Patrick slipped up and referred that he didn't trust everybody...could have been Simone, or others. Now she's going to take that opportunity to target Patrick. Then, we see her questioning Patrick in front of them all..."when you say that in front of all of us it does put us un at ease because ....all of them or most of them?"

Her second was at the critical spot of post challenge; We just lost the challenge but Patrick didn’t want to stop, he’s like a one man show ...I’ve been playing center field for 25 years, I can hit a catcher in the forehead. And, I think everybody is pretty much over Patrick for they way he performed today and I want to make sure that Patrick is going home. Her 3rd was more of the same complaint about Patrick...he was a one man team, I would much rather lose as a team than one person lose for everybody, redheads don't lie very well, all he could do is grin, she knows he's writing her name down, then she added that when she fishes she doesn't sit there and wait for the same fish to come by, she tries different things and never throws her hands in the air with out trying her hardest.

Her last confessional was also the last confessional before TC...I can be a hot head but at the same time, I know when to turn it on and I know when to turn it off. I feel like i’ve done every thing that I can do, but obviously I’m a hustler for a reason. See them leaving for TC. So, if it is me going home tonight, I can promise you I am not going to go home without a fight...

Lauren perceives where she is on the pecking order well and she had a plan and executed it well. She's a good player, but is dismissed. If she makes it to the final merge she could last a long while, perhaps?

Jessica also had 4 confessionals, going from UTR to 4. A lot. She is narrating what she sees at camp. Mostly about how she feels about Cole, fishing - 100% bonding for them, she's a virgin, her face is red, blah, blah......then delight at him confiding in her, t's power in the game, she gave him a kiss for it, that's big! Then, she tells us how he "word vomits" the info to Roark and then to Desi, and she's pissed, should have waited till after the challenge and then WE decide what to do. Finally, she's pissed, he lost a lot of power with me, last thing they want is for Joe to find out, would come after most likely Cole, she's not sure that they should blindside Joe.

Jessica narrated all of the events that happened at Healer beach.

Ali and Patrick had 3 confessionals. Ali's first is comparing Patrick and Lauren. Patrick was blurting out words at TC, doesn't know what's going on with him, but he's good at competitions & he works hard...easier to tolerate than someone that doesn't bring much...(see Lauren). Patrick doesn't understand the social game, but she needs him so she needs him not to rub people the wrong way.

Her second was that she needs Patrick so she will help him mesh better with the group. Then we see her do just that. Don't look for the idol in front of others, and don't dwell on the past, move to the future....

Her last confessional: Patrick being the strong guy that he is was supposed to be the strong one in the challenge but again, when it came down to it, we didn’t win. (see Patrick bashing a stick against the tree and he hurts his finger). Just is kind of like a repetition for us, so I have to figure out if Patrick being around is really an advantage any more?

Patrick's confessionals were I have idol fever, keep moving, my moving company in Auburn, Alabama, I work harder than all my tribe members looking for the idol. Next was that Ali has my back and I have hers. Then, finally, he admits that he should have let someone sub in, Lauren's not happy with him, but, he's got the guys on his side and he's comfortable knowing Lauren's going home....

Ben and Cole had 2 confessionals each. Ben's first confessional was another one that was broken up with scenes of the events. It begins: So, 7 days into the heroes tribe you could say that Chrissy and I are driving the train. But, moving forward, Chrissy and I need to figure out who is going to be the next target.
Ashley is a good hard worker and she’s fun (see Ashley collecting wood on the beach), so the better choice is for JP or Alan. (See Alan with a machete dragging palm fronds toward the shelter). Alan and I were aligned from day one, but Alan’s a hot head and loose canon and JP, he’s walking around here like he don’t know what’s going on(see JP heading to the water with the scuba gear and spear). But, JP would be good to have around camp because he does fish and everything, so right now Chrissy and I have not made any decision...(narrational?)

He continues with his second: Ashley is grouped into a power couple, that’s the whole Alan thing, now whether or not that’s true, I cannot fully trust Ashley at this point because she keeps pulling for JP to stay in the game which makes me think that JP and Ashley are still working together, (See JP return from fishing with his fins). And, normally as a power couple on S, it don’t work out good. Cut from Ashley staring to Ben. So, I have to wonder, if Ben and Chrissy are the new power couple driving the train, will it not work out so 'good'? Foreshadowing?

Cole was the supporting player to Jessica this week...HIs first was about Jessica, she kept showing me more of herself and I like it, she's my dream girl so he wanted to share the information that he had. His second justifies his actions: Joe complains a lot around camp so he’s already rubbed some people the wrong way, see Roark and Desi. And then, on top of that, Joe has the idol. And, the more I thought about Joe having the idol, the more I realize that Joe has all the power, and I don’t like that at all....The idol is unpredictable especially in an unpredictable players hands and it has a lot of power and I don’t want that power being thrown around without my say in it.

Six players had 1 confessional, Ashley, Alan, Joe, Roark, Desi, Devon, and 3 were UTR; Chrissy, Mike and JP. Ashley's confessional was all about JP getting dreamier and dreamier and she's pissed because she cannot spend any time with him so she's ready for Alan to go...doesn't know when he'll go off again.

Alan has a totally irrelevant confessional about how frustrating it is that he cannot cut the coconuts, and he's an NFL player out of his element, it's hard out here.

Joe: I’m feeling good! We’ve won every challenge, we are a dominant tribe. Life at camp is great. Everyone is still on the same page with, (see Mike walking off into the woods), Mike being the number one vote out because I got everyone believing that Mike has the idol. So, I’m cool and collected right now, things really couldn’t go better at this point. The only thing is Cole knows I have the idol so I just, I mean that is a concern of mine. (watches Jess and Cole pushing the boat out to sea...) I don’t think Cole has told anybody, but I am definitely concerned about his relationship with Jessica. They’ve been spending alot of time together fishing and things like that. You know Cole is like a love bird and that love bird disease is dangerous, it’s worse than the flu... Joe is correct to have concerns.

Desi and Roark's confessionals were in regard to Joe and then Cole giving them knowledge that Joe has the idol and he's wanting to blindside Joe if they go to TC....First Desi tells us how Joe complains at camp and he chucks food that he doesn't like...food is scarce.

Roark is definitely on board with the blindside Joe plan... Joe is an amazing blindside candidate cause he's locked on Mike.

Devon weighs in on the Lauren or Patrick boot: Pat stepped up at the challenge but, If you step up, you better be able to deliver (See Pat trying to break the tree limb unsuccessfully...) It was just Pat choking, and I do believe we lost because of that....Lauren, (see Lauren walking on the beach), on the other hand, she’s very steady, I trust her, but she doesn’t really fit in with the other tribe members. And, if we keep Lauren around we are more likely to lose the next immunity challenge and we’ve already lost 2 in a row.

Weighing all the odds...but, when we saw Ryan and Devon discussing who to boot at the water well, Ryan was pro Patrick, and it was Devon that preferred booting Patrick. Food for thought. We can ASSume that Ryan, Devon, and Ali are the core 3. We know that Ali probably would have preferred Lauren to go, because she knew that Patrick would stay loyal to her...so she was most likely influenced by Devon as well?

Chrissy went from 2 to zip. Flying under the radar, but she's seen talking with Ben about how they are the two in control. She also performed well at the challenge stacking the blocks. Mike UTR again. JP falls UTR, seen fishing, and was spoken about positively by Ashley, negatively by Ben.

This coming week we know there will be a tribe shuffle. Who will this benefit? It should benefit the people who are next on the chopping block, namely Lauren, Alan, Ashley, Mike, and Joe. But, Lauren is still an outlier with being one of the oldest and a single mom on a young season. Joe has an idol, that everyone knows about. The shuffle could help Joe and Cole possibly locate ANOTHER idol. (I have to wonder since Cole told everyone about the idol, did he recall the whereabouts of it as well? If so, other Healers could find one?)

Who will it possibly hurt? Alliances....namely Ben/Chrissy, Ryan/Devon/Ali, Cole/Jessica, JP/Ashley.

So, we know that we are shuffling into 3 tribes of 5, so they still need to value their strength. Something to keep in mind.

Safe: Cole: He's in the majority tribe, he's strong and should be valued for his strength at this point, he knows where the idol's are hidden, could find another if at another camp.
Mike: He's been flying under the radar after a good showing in the first episode. Jiffy loves him, so I doubt he'll be an UTR boot. So, we need to watch closely for when his story begins in earnest. We know he's marked by Joe. But, he's social and endearing and a good worker, and good at puzzles. He's in the majority tribe. He's safe.

Slight Risk: Ben ~ he's at slight risk, but he's a diplomat, most likely valued for his strength at this point, I placed him at slight risk because of his over confidence.
Chrissy: she's an older person, mom in a game of younger contestants, could be split from Ben, but she's savvy and good most likely with puzzles. Went UTR in confessionals. Could hook up with Ryan?
Devon: I think of all the red tribe, he's the most valued for his strength. He's good in challenges, he's chill and easy going, he's got charm. I thought about making him safe, but he's in the minority tribe, and at slight risk.
JP: He's a strong male, he's a provider that's quiet and won't make waves but he's been talked about as being a follower.
Desi: Weaker female, but in the majority tribe, could be at slight risk
Roark: Same as Desi, but older, good at puzzles, smart.
Ali: She's a strong female with great social skills, but she's on the minority tribe currently, so I put her at slight risk.
Ashley: She's a strong female, that's quieter. She's at slight risk at this point. Would be funny if she landed on Alan's tribe.

At Risk: Joe. Everyone is going to know that he has the idol....soon, imo. We saw that his tribe doesn't really like him. Can't swim well, weaker in challenges, eats a lot. (Could potentially find another idol?)
Ryan: Ryan has great social skills, could look to join up with Chrissy if they get on the same tribe, he's on the minority tribe and he's a small male. His confessionals are HIGH, could be up for a big fall? HIs arc is rising?
Lauren: Her arc is definitely risen. She's been on the hot seat for the past 2 episodes. She is loyal, but if she's split from her group, and she's the weakest link, she could be in grave danger.
Jessica: She's a strong female, on the majority tribe pre-shuffle, but she's in a "power couple", and she had a large spike in confessionals.
Alan: Alan is a very strong ex-Professional athlete, which makes him valuable until the merge. Therefore, I considered making him safe. But, he's dramatic and causes drama and has enemies...JP and Ashley. If he begins life on his new tribe as he did with his old tribe, he could be at risk, he will be the BOOT.

ETA: Moved Alan from slight risk to at risk.