episode      | 1 | 2 | total
Ryan     hust| 5 | 3 | 8
Alan     hero| 5 | 1 | 6
Ali      hust| 2 | 3$| 5
Ashley   hero| 3 | 1 | 4
Ben      hero| 2 | 2 | 4
Chrissie hero| 2 | 2 | 4
Joe      heal| 2$| 2 | 4
Lauren   hust| 1 | 2 | 3
Mike     heal| 3$| * | 3
Patrick  hust| 1 | 2 | 3
Cole     heal| * | 2 | 2
Devon    hust| 1 | 1 | 2
JP       hero| 1 | 1 | 2
Simone   hust| * | 2 | 2X
Desi     heal| 1 | * | 1
Jessica  heal| 1 | * | 1
Roark    heal| 1 | * | 1

F18  Katrina  hero| 1 |  1X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

I first want to distinguish how I count confessionals. If someone has a confessional and it is interrupted by a scene of them in regard to what they are talking about, then pick up with the same confessional, I count that as one. If someone has a confessional and it is broken up by someone elses confessional, or too much time passes and events change, I count that as 2 confessionals.

This week Ryan remains a star of the show and Ali is with him, they both had 3 confessionals. Many of them spoke of what they bring to the Survivor table. Ryan's first confessional was in regard to feeling good about the Hustler tribe, owning the Hustler mantra, he busts his bum, and he feels in a good spot socially....he and Devon are really tight, he's connected with everyone except Simone, who is weird.

His next one was in regard to Chrissy and giving her the idol, and this confessional was at the start of the IC when he sees who was voted off for the first time. Chrissy doesn't know that it was he that gave her the idol, maybe it saved her and she used it, but he hopes she sticks around so he can use that connection down the road. FORESHADOWING

Finally, he got the last confessional of the show when he weighs the benefits of going with trust vs predictability...Initially, I kind of wanted Simone out, but, it’s alot of uncertainty with Patrick. It’s like you got a newborn baby....you want to really like it, but, and take care of it, but it’s really, really annoying cause you gotta watch it every single second. He’s really good around camp and he’s great in challenges as well, but he’s unpredictable, and predictability is one of the best things I can have in an alliance. That’s why I like Devon so much, he’s loyal. Cut to see Devon. But, it’s not like I am even dragging along a lemming, it’s Simone. She scares me, she’s really smart. I want to be aligned with predictable people who are really loyal and want to listen to me. And, tonight is about who can we trust more moving forward and who is going to be the most loyal. And, it’s really scary but you put your trust in people in this game but in a 6 person tribe there is no place to hide.

Ali also had 3 confessionals: First one was Ali talking about her strengths and using it in the game....This game is all about handling different personalities and I think that is something that I am good at, and I don’t know if every one is thinking that, Oh, Simone’s just dizzy and I don’t want to deal with that but I see Simone’s value at this time ....I mean being here with a whole bunch of random people, it’s a big step for her. Um, I could definitely use that for my advantage, kind of pull Simone onto my side..... Then we see Ali giving advice to Simone, don't doubt yourself, if you don't hype yourself up, who will...etc. She continues, I could see her being really loyal for a long time, you know I could definitely mold her, you know, I am here to win! ($$$ Quote?) So, I feel like Simone, I could use as putty in my hands.

Her next confessional re: Patrick. Patrick’s name is starting to come up and it’s so early and I am like how am I supposed to work with him if Patrick is getting on people’s nerves? (see Patrick goofing around), and he’s nuts....With Patrick, I feel like I am babysitting a lot. I don’t want that to be my job, I am here to play for me. I’m not here to play for anybody else....I think I am definitely going to have to think about where we stand and where this relationship is because if people decide to vote Patrick out, I don’t think I need him in this game anymore.

Her final confessional: Going into tonight, I definitely have options. I know Simone will listen to me and I know that she will follow me, but me and Pat have been together since day 1 and when he looks at me I can tell that he trusts me more than anyone in this game. My only concern is that people are not certain about Patrick for the long haul, I think everybody knows he’s so unpredictable, I think they never know what he’s going to do.

Ali has definite social skills. She's empathetic, she's able to get along with everyone on her tribe, she builds trust. She has used it to her advantage and she does indeed have "options". She's a player to watch, imo. And, she also had a $$ quote this episode!

Seven people had 2 confessionals. We'll start with Chrissy. Chrissy got the first confessional of the show, again. She first states how heated and angry TC got and that it was great for her. She started out on the bottom, but all the little cracks came out...she didn't use the super idol, but she's happy because now she can use it down the road if she's ever on the chopping block, as a decoy. It has no power but it still has power. The camera fades on her as she is illuminated by the fire, she's a smart cookie.

Her next confessional was stellar, and it showed her working it. It was dispersed through her going from tribe member to tribe member feeling them out and assessing each. It went like this: I needed to get through that first Tribal, and I got through it and now I really do believe that I can go far in this game. I just need to figure out who I can go with because I do believe you need a strong partner to get to the end of the game with. She starts with JP, and we see her talking to JP...So, what I do as an actuary is analyze data and figure out what is my next best move, given every thing that I know. And, here’s waht I know. JP can be helpful in challenges but truthfully, he’s not smart.

Next she moves to Ashley...see them talking....Ashley is a very good player but I don’t entirely trust Ashley, I am not convinced there is not a power couple.

Then she is with Alan...Then, after Alan had his blow up, I’m concerned about having a twosome with Alan....At this point the data shows that Ben is a better option for me. Ben has a lot of social charm and I can think several steps ahead strategically so together we complement each other very well.

Then, we see her woo Ben. And the deal is done. We hear Chrissy's plan and we see her execute it to perfection. Chrissy is a star player and one to watch.

Ben also has 2 confessionals: Man, this group is like old paint. It’s cracked and fractured everywhere. I am not sure who I can trust. The core 4 is gone. The perception might still be there in some people’s heads, actually, no it’s not. It’s done, the whole thing is shot. Now, it’s every man for himself. Cuts away with him seen shaking his head. Next, we hear his thoughts...Alan and I were aligned from the gitgo, but Alan, after he blew up at Tribal the other night, I just don’t know if I can work with him? Chrissy is a smart woman and she has a good head on her shoulders, and that’s going to help me get further in the game....At this point, Chrissy and I are in the drivers seat and what ever we decide to do is what is going to happen.

Ben is in a good position here now as well as he is the voice of reason and a real asset to his tribe. He is the diplomat and appears to have the best social game on the Heroes.

Cole and Joe had 2 confessionals from the Healer tribe. Joe: His first is in regard to liking Mike so much better, but he's still public enemy number 1, but his accusations have backfired a bit cause he's not able to spend as much time looking for the idol as he would like, yet still can find some time. Next confessional: Showing Cole the clue was like a major risk, but I needed help, like I don’t, honestly think I would have figured it out on my own.....in my mind, if anything pops out of that ground, I am grabbing it! I want it and I ‘m going to find it today.....”Got it!” ...I have the idol, I feel good! I feel good! Now I know no one else has it, but I ‘m concerned because the fact that Cole knows I have the idl could backfire. It’s all about power and knowledge and he (see Cole’s back as he walks away), He has too much knowledge. I don’t think he’s going to use it against me but at the same time, if he does, I might have to put a target on his back.

Joe first targeted Mike, now he's may target Cole. Hmmmm?

Cole's first confessional was all about how smitten he is with Jessica...supercute, could see myself with her...his next one was related to finding the idol with Joe...Joe brought me in on the fact that there’s a clue in the back of the woods that I haven’t seen. I can’t believe it! I am beside myself like this is the greatest day so far and this is why I am here to play survivor, it’s to find the idol and have the power, but I am kind of suspicious that the idol is on the raft, it’s just been out fishing all day, so I am like, dude, I need to see this clue.....Dude, through wilderness therapy and rock climbing, it’s just second nature for me to help people and help them accomplish their goals and that skill set is giving me power in this game. Since Joe would have probably never found that by himself, he probably sees me as a really good resource now....
Cole applying his real life skills to Survivor is helping him in his assessment, while we know that it's putting a target on his back per Joe's confessionals. Cole is not a smart Survivor player. He's getting into a relationship with a girl that all can see, and he led another person straight to the idol, where as he could have kept his mouth shut and gotten it for himself....he's strong in challenges, but....

Next we go to the Hustler tribe where Patrick, Lauren, and Simone all had 2 confessionals. We will start with Lauren. First one: Patrick’s kind of getting on my nerves. He wants to be the highlight....he wants to be in the spotlight. (See Patrick clowning around, Australian accent, you want to get some shrimp on the barbie with me, hear Australian music)....He’s just all around the place, it’s like, Sit STILL...(see him bouncing around)....and, he’s just too loud for me, his volume is at a 10, and he needs to be at a volume 2. (See Patrick carrying on and laughing.) He is a big kid. He’s a 25 year old boy, you can look him dead in the face and say, ‘Patrick, do not touch that’, and, he will look at you and touch it. You know when it’s like, Really? I just cannot come out and say, ‘shut the hell up!’, just because I am older. I would think that they would want to stick together. It’s very tough for me, I mean, I am not a social butterfly...Being a commercial fisherman, you work alone. You know, I don’t want to be excluded, so I am trying to build a relationship with Ali. Try to get on the same page with her...

Her second: Patrick is unpredictable, I don’t trust him. And, he doesn’t follow directions and he could hurt us. See Patrick eating or trying to eat a stick and spitting it out. You know, even though he’s strong. Strong is not always what you need, you know Simone is not great at challenges, but, you know, Simone at least listens.

Lauren is different in her tribe just as the 2 moms were in the Hero tribe. Her assessments are spot on, but she is in a difficult spot. She confides how her lack of social skills is something difficult for her in the midst of a social game. Her physicality does not compare to Patrick's. She's fighting for Simone, as well as herself. Note that she seeks Ali out, as did Patrick, and Ryan in this episode.

Next Patrick: First he speaks about being afraid of crabs, and he's a lot bigger. He's a wild banshee and it's his strategy to keep everyone having fun cause when you do that you don't have to worry about being the bullseye. He tells us his strategy. This is validated at the moment when we see the whole tribe laughing at Patrick.

His second: Tonight at TC, Simone will be the one going home. I haven’t seen her in any way helping us as a tribe. You know it seems as if every body else is on the same page as me, the boys are already together and Ali’s on my side, so we gotta majority here so I think this tribe is definitely better without Simone.

Simone spoke about this being difficult for her, she's a city girl, she was proud of her greatest accomplishment of relieving herself in the ocean, and it's hot out here, there's no air conditioning....ugh. Her last confessional: As far as challenges, I am not the strongest one here so I think that I could be an easy vote, so what I think I need to do is to start shaping the narrative of this tribe. Clearly Patrick is getting on Lauren’s nerves and that’s going to play to my advantage. See the girls walking alone....It’s very easy for people to have opinions about Patrick so it’s very easy to shape the narrative around him.

Alan, Ashley, JP, and Devon all had 1 confessional. Alan started with the second confessional of the show, TC was intense, I mean I was not expecting this to start flying like that. But, at the end of the day, I think I got what I wanted in terms of people really thinking of Ashley and JP as a power couple. Like, so my plan worked essentially, Like whether I am right or whether I am wrong, I think I created some kind of suspicion. A lot of times suspicion gets you the kind of results that you want. Alan has a confessional that tells us he thinks he was successful with the tribe and placed doubt on the power couple, Ashley and JP. However, we heard from every member of the tribe and they all confirmed that his drama only alienated him. Trouble for Alan.

Ashley told us: The whole spectacle that Alan created tonight at TC sort of shows how off the hinges he really is. I’m not going to sit back and tell my whole tribe that I am in a power duo with JP, and we are hiding idols. I think he went from a really safe place with the core 4 and now, he’s put a huge target on his back.

Then JP gives us his strategy and his thoughts...In the firehouse it’s all about getting things done, taking care of business, so I am out fishing, trying to get some food on the table, or, go one step at a time and go from there....Ben notices his lobster....you know I’ve never been super into drama, i’m not the confrontational type or anything like that so If I can get some fish, some lobster and make sure everyone’s got a full belly, everyone will be happy and taken care of....The other night at TC, Ashley and I got called out as the power couple, that label sucks. I don’t see us as a power couple at all! We are not dating, we are not hooking up, we are not doing any of that kind of stuff....I mean if you are a power couple you might as well be hooking up and being a power couple, know what I mean? Might as well take advantage of everything! So, Ash and I’s connection, I think it’s more on the back burner right now, see Ashley with Chrissy cleaning their teeth....but, at the fire house, that’s kind of my position, stay calm, stay patient. I may not be the guy that is out there talking strategy with everybody but I know that I need to clean my rep up and with time that will straighten things out.

Devon had one confessional that was in the post IC loss slot. He saw Simone as the weakest tribe member, she proved tonight that she can't do puzzles, she's gotta go.

Mike, Jessica, Desi, and Roark all fly under the radar. Interesting that all 4 with no confessionals are on the Healers tribe. Was it because their tribe won, and that the only drama over there was the finding of the idol?

One thing I noticed about this episode was that a lot of the confessionals were about the skills that they had in their everyday life and how they perceived that those skills would help them in Survivor. They provided windows into their individual strategies. Some we can predict will serve them well...Chrissy, Ali, Ryan. Some of those skill sets may place targets on their backs and perhaps will not be so successful...Cole, Lauren, and certainly Simone.

I think the folks that flew under the radar at Healers will all be safe....there could be a surprise boot, but they stayed away from any drama or conflict, they were seen getting along. If Healers go to TC, I see Cole and Joe at the heart of the conflict...perhaps Jessica could be slightly at risk for her association with Cole.

Here are my assessments for the week:

Safe: Ryan, Ali, Ben, Chrissy, Roark, Desi, Dr. Mike, Devon, JP (safe as he's a challenge strength)

Sight risk: Jessica, Cole, Ashley, Alan

At risk: Lauren, Patrick, Joe

Patrick and Lauren's arcs are rising together, they are in conflict. One of them should be the boot, imo. Cole's rose up 2 from 0 in the first episode, but I really think when the tribe decides to get rid of one or the other it won't be Cole first? I see Joe more at risk, because he's already alienated Dr. Mike, and I think the girls see it too. While Dr. Mike fell totally under the radar, I think it's more of a positive this week. We see the conflict that he had last week dissipate as Joe sets his sites on a new adversary, Cole.

Alan had the most movement from 5 to 1. And, we saw that he is not assessing his drama accurately. If the heroes go to TC, he could be in trouble, but I don't see them going to TC...