LAST EDITED ON 12-10-17 AT 11:11 AM (EST)
Thank you for the kind words, CTGirl!
episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | 10| 11| 12| total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 36
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 38
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 28
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25X
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 23
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19
F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F14 Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X
F13 Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15X
F12 Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 8X
F11 Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18X
F10 JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | 5X
F9 Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 25X
F8 Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25X
$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote
At this point in time we are able to go back and review the confessionals for patterns. So, I went back and paid attention to the episode preceding the boot episode. If there was a rise in confessionals preceding the boot episode, it's in a story arc that is peaking. If there was NO rise or fall in confessionals preceding the boot episode, OR, if there was a decrease in confessionals preceding the boot episode, it's a hidden boot. The story arc is declining prior to their boot episode.
Here is what I found:
Simone: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Patrick: boot preceded by +1 = Rising story arc
Alan: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Roark: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Ali: boot preceded by +2 = Rising story arc
Jessica: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Desi: boot preceded by -1 = HIDDEN boot
Cole: boot preceded by -1 = HIDDEN boot
JP: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Joe: boot preceded by -1 = HIDDEN boot
Lauren: boot preceded by -2 = HIDDEN boot
Results: I didn't really count Katrina as she had no preceding episode.
5/11 had no rise or fall(they stayed the same) in confessionals preceding boot
4/11 had a decrease in confessionals preceding boot
9/11 had HIDDEN boots
2/11 had rising confessionals preceding boot
81% of the boots are preceded by an episode where their confessionals either stay the same from prior episodes, OR, decrease. 18% of boots go out as their counts are climbing.
Not that we can deduce really anything from this, but we can say that the pattern, if any, of the season points to hidden boots.
So, applying this to the upcoming episode: the only one that has rising confessionals is Mike. Mike = safe?
Ryan, Ben, Devon = decreasing confessionals prior to next episode
Chrissy and Ashley = 0 change in confessionals prior to next week
Now on with the confessionals:
This week Chrissy and Mike had the most confessionals, each with 4. Mike begins the show with the first confessional: Again I got blindsided. I just believe people when they tell me something. see Devon. And, each and every time I get screwed. Iím going to get through this, I just have to figure out how.
His second confessional came after the IC...I thought I was screwed but Lauren has all these advantages in the game. But, Ben wants to get rid of her and all of a sudden, I feel like I am back on top. So, never underestimate Dr. Mike.
Third: Chrissy wonít commit to taking out Lauren. This is vengeance more than anything else...Sheís playing emotionally at this point and I donít know whatís going to happen tonight. Survivor rule number 2, have a plan B.
His last confessional was the last one of the episode: Lauren gave me a piece of her idol, to say, Look, I trust you. It falls into one of those stupidest moves ever in Survivor history. And, the only question is, do the Survivor gods make her pay for it or not?
Chrissy also had 4 confessional as the woman scorned. *snicker*
She begins: I get the fact that this is a game, but I felt very close to Ben. His response was inhuman. And, he wasnít even a friend about it. He was kinda being a jerk...It looks like my days are numbered but I am not going to roll over and die. And, I have to do every thing I can to make it to the end for my family, and, If I get a chance to get back at Ben, Iím gonna take it.
Second: Post RC win: Poor Ben picked the wrong time to pick a fight with me because he did not get to see his sweet Kelly. Now, I Ďm going to make sure that he regrets that he ever crossed me.
Third: During the RC: The reason I picked Ashley is because I felt like Ashley would be the easiest of the 4 to break. Itís a long shot, but if I can bring just one person to our side then we have the majority in numbers and we can control the next vote.
Final: I was ready to go to tribal and vote out Ben, but OMG, if by voting out Lauren, that will keep me safe, I have to consider it...the problem is that for 6 days, Ben has lied to me and used me. How am I supposed to trust him, how am I to know that he just wonít come back to camp and say, ďHa Ha, I duped you againĒ?
Ben and Lauren had 3 confessionals each:
Lauren's: First one complains about Ben and his fake idol...Benís got this fake idol, but what is it gonna do? Whoís it gonna benefit? ....he just wants Chrissy to give that fake idol to Jeff and Jeff throw it in the fire and embarrass herself. Itís cause he has a personal thing against Chrissy and thatís my problem with Ben. (See Ben, Devon, and Lauren looking for the real idol) Heís taken all these factors to the personal level.
Then, we see Lauren find the HII...and her confessional continues...At this point the only thing I have is a leather string. So, at the next immunity challenge I have to get that shell complete to be in play.
The next confessional for her was in the spot of doom, post IC: Picking up the shell completed the idol, so with 7 of us and 4 of us all voting the same way, case closed, itís either Mike, Chrissy, or Ryan.
Final: I just heard that Benís trying to blindside me, what the he!! is going on?
So, I still have that extra vote, but first I want to see if I can still get some numbers back. on my side. Then, she proceeds to give Mike half of her idol...
Ben: Ryan played an idol at TC, traditionally once an idol is played, another comes back into the game. With that one coming back into the game, we need to find it. So, I decided to make a fake idol and Iím going to plant that somewhere while I go look for the real idol. ...If Chrissy, Mike or Ryan finds the fake idol, theyíll stop looking and that will give us more time to look for the real one. See a snake on the log.
Second: I came up to the well and I seen Devon, AShley and Lauren kinda talking underneath their breath and I heard my name, and they seen me coming and they stopped talking. The whole thing was really suspicious....Something is really going on around here, they are saying Chrissy, but I feel that it could be me? So, I gotta do whatever I gotta do.
Third: I was trying to talk to Chrissy and she just blew me off. Sheís holding a grudge in this game and taking it too personal. Half of me was like screw it, I have an idol. But, Iíd rather save it for like 5. (See Chrissy following Ben out into the jungle.) To do that, Iím going to need Chrissy...
Ryan, Devon, and Ashley all had 2 confessionals each.
Ryan: HIs story arc declined by 1. First: I was just frigging hood winked, I was just duped. Apparently Ben was with Lauren, Devon, and Ashley. And, I played my idol, I didnít have to, they got me, Iím in an awful spot right now. I have no allies except Chrissy, who has no power. But, other than that it went really well. Reaction from going to power to no power.
Second: I was shocked! Ben wants to vote out Lauren! Now, he can be very vague, but thatís all I needed to hear because as long as itís not on me, Iím down. The only problem is for this to work, we need Chrissy, and she hates Ben.
Ryan taking a back seat toward the end of the show is encouraging to me, regarding his chances.
Devon: He drops 3 confessionals from a peak of 5, by far the most decline. But, just as Ryan is taking a lower profile at the end of the, could Devon be as well?
His first just comments on Ben making the fake II: Ben made a fake immunity idol and it looks really legit...turns out Benís pretty crafty, Iím impressed!
Next, he disagrees with Ashley wanting to vote out Ben...
Ashley still wants to vote out Ben, she sees him still as the biggest threat in this game, but I see Chrissy being a threat too. (see Chrissy in the water.) With challenge capabilities and who the jury might want to see win in the end.
Devon is mostly commenting on what others are doing or want to do.
Ashley: Of course Chrissy is going to say anything she can to get the numbers on her side but itís interesting because she might be right. Both alliances know that Ben is a huge threat at the end, so do I just go ahead and initiate that right now? To be able to say that I made a big move?
Next: Having the IN at TC tonight is going to feel amazing. I see myself in a great position because I have an alliance I can trust, sees Lauren, Devon, and Ben (over confidence noted), we have the numbers. But, I realize I may not have that many big moves on my resume, and for me to win this game I got to get rid of the stronger players. See a snake slithering...
So, there we have it. Now, what does it all mean?
As we get down to the penultimate episode, it looks like a case could be made for each and everyone of them to be the next boot. Taking everything into consideration, here is how it could go....
Safe: Ben, Mike
Slight risk: Chrissy, Ryan
At risk: Ashley, Devon
Ashley is rock stable. We hear Ashley's name get mentioned by Chrissy at the end of the preview promo. Devon dropped from 5 to 2 confessionals. He had the greatest drop, just as Lauren dropped before her boot last week.