episode      | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| total
Ryan     hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 23
Ben      hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 17
Jessica  heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Lauren   hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13
Joe      heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 13
Chrissy  hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13
Devon    hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12
Cole     heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 12
Ashley   hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11
Mike     heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10
Desi     heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 7
JP       hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 4

F18 Katrina  hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone   hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick  hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan     hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark    heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F16 Ali      hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

Starting out, just looking at the numbers, here is what I could predict:

Safe: Ryan, Ashley
Slight risk: Lauren, Joe, Chrissy, Mike (Lauren, Mike, and Chrissy have a bump by one confessional, which could be the start of their final arc. Joe is stable in confessionals but no longer has an idol.
At risk: JP, Desi at risk for being a surprise boot as both were UTR. Ben, Devon, and Cole at risk as they have a spike in confessionals. The beginning of the end?

Star of the show was Ben, the man in the middle. Ben first told us that he'd do okay if he stuck with the Yawa 5, but he's concerned with Cole...he and Jess sit right down and play patty cake, it's hard to trust them.

2nd: This is the greatest feeling ever! You want to make the merge because then S. starts....see zoom in on DEVON. That’s when you start finding your true alliance, but you gotta be on top of your game and the merge is the first step to getting to that million dollars. Spelling it out for us, I had to note that when he said this is when Survivor starts they zoomed in on Devon. Is he narrating his own game plan, or what Devon will do?

3rd: Before the tribe swap, Chrissy and I were pretty tight. But, no one knows that we were working together. And, she’s wanting to talk in front of everyone, see Ryan, and that’s kind of concerning because I don’t want us two to seem like a tight alliance.

4th: Right now I am listening to everyone, I could go with the old heroes and old hustlers or I could see if we could get that Yawa 5 working. The question is could I trust Cole? (See Cole eating a cinnamon stick.) He’s selfish and I don’t think Cole respects anyone here, ominous music playing. He just respects himself and you need help to get to the end, period. Right now I need someone that I can trust and right now Cole’s up there eating freakin’ cinnamon sticks...

5th: Cole came up to me and apologized and I did my, Oh no, bud, it’s all good...
ya know he’s offended me the whole time I’ve been at camp with him....like separating from the old Yawa tribe, see Lauren and Jess walking...could burn me later...I got to be tactically and not emotionally. Tactically if I have to work with Cole to get further in the game then I will.

6th: Also the last confessional of the episode: Chrissy? She trusts me, so tonight am I going to have to break that with Chrissy and vote her out or break away from the Yawa 5 and get a healer out? I am sitting in the middle and and having to choose a side is the worse thing you can do in a game for a million dollars. But, tonight the battle lines will be drawn, we’re going to war and war is not a pretty thing cause we are going to war tonight! With this, Ben is propelled up the leader board and therefore, with a big spike, he's hot for booting...but, with his reunion with Chrissy and Co., he's most likely safe.

This episode could have been called, WWBD? A case for the man in the middle. We all knew that Ben would go with Chrissy, so there really wasn't that much drama to be had in this show. We also all suspected it would indeed be a Healer that went. But, Ben goes from 2 to 6 confessionals, that places him at risk.

The second star of the show was Michel's numero uno, Cole. He was the boot decoy, and he was without an idol. They gave Cole 5 confessionals. First one was about how much he trusted his new group of the Yawa 5, Ben's a great guy and Lauren, he thinks they are going to stick with them. Then, if they could get Joe and Desi back!

2nd: He usually eats 8000 calories/day, now he's starving, now there is Outback Steak House, if S. is a Mtn. then he feels that he is more than halfway, that's how to conquer a mtn, one step at a time.

3rd. The goal was to get to the merge and now that we have gotten here it feels like we have been given new life. It’s a start over. We have hammers now, multiple machetes, see Ben chopping away (a good sign he’ll chop some folks!), we even have these massive nails to build a great shelter. See JP, putting fronds on the roof.
....but at this point in the game all bets are off. People are gonna be out for themselves so the thought crossed my mind that I should be looking for some kind of a clue or advantage. See him looking than pull a nail out, and we see the clue right in with the nails, but he doesn’t. (Just another example of what a “dumb” player Cole is edited to be. Will he be the goat that gets to the end? ) But, I couldn’t find anything, but I feel that I need to keep actively looking just because people are going to be with other people now, talking a lot. (see Desi, plotting and strategizing and trying to build new alliances, see Joe)

4th: He's now experiencing Survivor paranoia, but just like when your gear fails and you fall from the top to the bottom, I have to trust my gear and my gear is my alliance, he's praying it keeps his Survivor life going.

5th: He's very worried, rubbed Ben the wrong way with his eating habits, he's trying to find a way out of the trouble...goes to apologize.

Cole: Cole is playing recklessly, and he's not observant or in tune to the people around him. The editing underlines what a poor player he is. Clearly remains in the crosshairs, he's a physical threat, without an idol. At risk.
The big spike in confessionals is also a big red flag.

Next up is Devon with 4 confessionals. We all know how they love to give confessionals to those that underline how difficult Survivor is....Devon's first confessional is intriguing...

I’m running on empty, there is not a single calorie left in my body that is usable...my brain feels dead and every single one of my limbs feels like it weighs a 1000 pounds. This game is a lot more serious than I thought. And, going in to the next RC, if I don’t get this win, I don’t know? I don’t know what I am going to do.....confessional ends with a shot of Devon laying flat out on the beach arms spread open....(Reminds me of all the Jesus comparisons with Ethan in Africa?) Then the camera pans out on the spread out Devon, right over top of him. Then cut to the challenge, and we see Devon carrying the banner, (the CROSS). It was very obvious to me, the religious association. Wonder what that means for Devon? Just saying.

His second was with him holding his big beer mug, OMG, I am in just perfect bliss right now...(see Jessica, Cole, and Desi toasting.) To make the merge is such an accomplishment and to go from such a low this morning, see Chrissy and Ryan toasting, and to be with all these amazing people and then to eat this Outback. It’s just such happiness, I feel like a King, man! This is the life! See Joe ordering...2!

3rd: This one is also narrational for him...he looks around and feels the strongest made it to the merge. But, the healers and heroes have seen themselves as a threat this whole game, but, as we see him telling Lauren, that puts the hustlers in a good spot. The hustlers have been flying under the radar, with all their trips to TC, which puts them in the good spot. We see him tell Lauren, don't let anyone know what you are going to do, he tells her, "Us 7, take out the 5!".

Then we see Devon, Chrissy, Ben at the water hole. Devon has his final confessional: Joe knows how to play the game which makes him a threat to others, and Cole is a big physical threat, if he does end up losing the first immunity challenge it would be a good time for him to go.

Devon is mostly narrating. But, with a spike from 1 to 4, he's at RISK.

Chrissy, Ryan, Jessica, and Mike all had 3 confessionals.

Once again, Chrissy has the first confessional of the show. Could be significant, it's as though Chrissy's opinion dictates the show. First: I think I have been dominating the social game, I play 24 hours a day, both guys closer to me than they are to each other, I'm set up for a nice future run in this game.

Second: Joe, so glad I have not played the game with him so far, he's obnoxious and loud.

Her third was a long, drawn out confessional cut multiple times by letting us see the action...Right now the decision is either Cole or Joe. The tricky part is we don’t know if either of them has an idol.....I would be agreeable in voting for Jessica out because we think that Joe might have an idol or give an idol to Cole, and I think it’s unlikely that Jessica has an idol. Plus, Jessica and Cole have gotten very tight and we want to split them up. I’ve been applying for this show for 16 years, so I am a student of this game enough to know that Tribal is live and that people do change their vote. I just hope that I am on the right side of it tonight.

Chrissy, although she was a target this week, is at slight risk with only one rise in confessionals. But, really, I think she's safe. Interesting that she's called out for being loud herself, by Ben, and she's reckless herself by responding at the IC to Jeff's math questions.

I thought it was great that Chrissy is recognized as threatening, by Mike!

Ryan: He's excited, his tribe was down to 3, a disaster, now this is the playoffs, this is what you dream of. (Reactionary)

Second: Waiting to talk to Devon, like 2 old friends; suggests the Hero/Hustler alliance, 3 hustlers, and he's tight with 2 heroes...like the merge vote is like the cream of the crop of Survivor. This decides who is going to dictate the rest of the game. And, a Hustler doesn’t wait, (see Ryan AND Devon), a Hustler goes and makes alliances. At the end of the confessional, the camera zooms in on Ryan, as we hear some rapid percussion, like a snake rattle.

Third: Going into a merge vote, it is of great importance to take out a threat. There are so many threats out there, (see Cole, then JP), so now is the time for this Hustler and Hero alliance to come together and try and take out the healer tribe.

Ryan is safe for the next episode. Ryan looked more like a follower than a leader in this episode, yet told us his thoughts.

Jessica had 3 confessionals in her boot episode. Her first was flirting with the Outback Steakhouse waiter, and she's a virgin and tries to act holy and moral, but at the end of he conf. she is optimistic that her nuYawa 5 will stick together and reign in Joe and Desi.

Next, she's spoken with Desi and she's happy to know they are still working together and she feels like a Queen Bee right now. The last one was about Cole, she needs him hear so she will have a chat with him.

Jessica is out because I think she lacked social awareness as well. The couple is split.

Mike also has 3 confessionals. He's the one that Lauren and Ben like the most from the nuYawa tribe, so he could have hope in this game for a while, and there is the fact that he has the HII, and Jessica, the only one who knew about it is gone.

Mike was in full diplomat mode this episode, trying to ensure Ben would stay with them.

First: Lauren tells me immediately that Devon wants to get out all of the healers.
Lauren tells Mike as they walk off, I made a vow to you, MIke.
Mike continues: I am concerned that the healers could be ganged up upon by the original heroes and hustlers. But, the reality is that we are still 5 healers strong, plus I am strong with Lauren and I am strong with Ben, so the line is being drawn in the sand and I expect a war. As he throws the bamboo that he dragged in...

Second: Mike tells us that the nuYawa was 5 strong but now Ben is wavering, and that post merge dynamics are nothing that he thought they would be, he thought he'd be the only one playing the game but as it turns out everyone is playing the game.

Third: Mike is the one that targets Chrissy...The first person that needs to go is Chrissy because you gotta get out the really smart ones, see Chrissy walking alone on the beach. They can trick people. So, tonight we will be 5 healers strong against Chrissy. It’s Chrissy and I think I can trust Lauren to vote with us. Lauren came to us and we all became tight, so now it is 6 people.

Mike seems smart but if he were a really savvy player he would have gone to Ben and told him to choose the target, and they would follow.

Mike's arc has peaked at 3, which is not a good sign, but he'll be at slight risk because he does have an idol.

Lauren and Joe have 2 confessionals each. Lauren is starting a story arc, while Joe is in the midst of one.

Lauren tells us what the plan is, to take out the healers, but that is not good for her, she's with the Healers and she really likes Dr. Mike. See her tell Dr. Mike the plan. Her next confessional: Ben and I, we’ve been together since Yawa and he was the only one from heroes and I was the only one from Hustlers, but now WE are really in the middle. She's speaking about her own predicament.

Lauren is beginning a new arc, but she went with the majority so I would say she's safe at this point.

Joe, OTOH, found an idol 2 episodes ago, then hastily got rid of it in the last episode. He is seriously at risk. First he's thrilled about the merge, he's 5 strong with the healers while every other group has less numbers, and besides, he's got the idol. Next, he's telling us what a strong player he is, when it comes to strategy, and that people are terrified of him. He notes that Ben is playing both sides and that his tribe has been compromised. But, at TC, if he's feeling the heat, he'll play his idol.

Joe at least does see the forest through the trees, he sees plainly that Ben will not stay with them, while the others trust. But, Joe has antagonized Chrissy, so most likely his number is up, soon!

Ashley has 1 confessional: Tells us about how tough it is and if they don't get food soon they will be in serious trouble. Survivor is no joke, We are not joking when we say if we don’t get food today, we might die.

They always love it when the DAWS underline how tough the game is. Out of all the DAWS, I think that Ashley is one of the safest for now. She's quiet, she's a soldier, a number and she's in the majority. And, her confessionals are steady.

Flying under the radar: Surprise: JP and Desi. Poor Desi wins the first IC and doesn't get a confessional to talk about it. Not a good sign. Both JP and Desi are at slight risk for being "surprise" boots.

Post confessional analysis prediction:

Safe: Ashley, Ryan, Lauren

Slight Risk: Chrissy, Mike, JP, Desi

Risk: Ben, Cole, Devon, Joe

Devon and Ben are in the majority, Cole and Joe are on the targeted healer tribe. But, will an HII or secret advantage tip the scale another way, perhaps? If the secret advantage is maneuvered and the underdogs get a win, who would they most target? Ben? Devon?

But, isn't this game panning out to wwcd?