LAST EDITED ON 11-06-16 AT 08:51 AM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | total
David    Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 24
Zeke     Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Chris    Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 14
Taylor   Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14
Adam     Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13
Ken      Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | 12
Jay      Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 12
Jessica  Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11
Bret     Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 9
Hannah   Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 9
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 6
Sunday   Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 5
Will     Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 4
Eliminated:
Rachel   Tak     | * | 2 | 2X
Mari     Van     | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul     Tak     | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy     Van     | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece     Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie   Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
+ = Winner Quote
 

WOW, what a surprise! But, Michaela was at risk solely on her confessionals. Her boot is prompting me to make an assessment of risk based on CONFESSIONAL counts alone, and then another combining the confessional tracker with the editing, and promos. See what, if anything, that can tell us!

Michaela fell from 3 to 1 confessional in the week prior to her boot, which does spell trouble. When we coupled it with what we saw, her confessional about snitching immediately after Jay's million dollar confessional and poignant insight, put her at risk at least from Jay and his side kick Will. And, that is indeed exactly what happened. It was a red flag. Let's see if we can't get the next one!

This week Jay has the starring role with 4 confessionals, and it's his idea to make the BIG move. His first confessional is about Bret, who he thinks would be just the type that he would run from after making bonfires on the beach. He's too funny, too lively, to be a funeral director. His second confessional was right after the IC loss, when he notes that the Millennials have to come together and decide which one of the GenX'rs it will be....but considering that Bret keeps lying, sorry, he'll have to go. His third confessional is the revelation: Michaela’s got seashells, it’s like a football play, you know what I am saying? Okay, she’s like, okay, post merge we are eliminating this person and then she’s like there’s gonna be 4 seashells left, which is us. And, Michaela is a smart girl...so, that’s the problem. (Just as we see Michaela say, "ya’ll are 3 people I feel like I can trust and I don’t feel there are any other people that I can trust in this game..." Jay continues: Michaela is a huge threat cause she’s good in challenges, she’s a smart chick. So, I have this epiphany of saying, BOOP, Michaela should go HOME. Before the merge! See an iguana raise up on a rock and look around...

The editing has really honed in on Jay this episode. I noticed when they first came to the Ikabula beach, it was Jay that they focused in on. At the challenges, he got a lot of screen time. Now we see why...he's talking big move here! Finally, his last confessional: I’m nervous. Michaela is a great alliance and I’ve been with her since day one. And, I still don’t trust Bret. It’s crazy when you make a big move cause you are thinking, is this the right logical thing to do? Survivor is not a joke. This decision tonight could honestly mold the rest of my game either for a win or for a loss. I’m freaking out! And, we hear crescendo music playing and getting more and more frantic....

Jay casts doubt as to which way he'll go tonight. But, Jiffy practically hit us over the head with the comments about both of the other tribes voting out one in the majority, and will they do the same thing. All foreshadowing of the events going down.

This is a huge leap for Jay, this week going to 4 confessionals, but all along he's been a consistent player. Seems that he's taking his game to another level with this big move. We know he has an idol in his pocket, but from the looks of things he could be in trouble. WE hear that Hanna is out for revenge. Next, we see that Chris and company want to target and get rid of millennial numbers. He's good in challenges. He's clearly AT RISK. But he does have an idol. Will he be targeted, or will he play his idol?

Taylor, Hanna, and Michaela both had 3 confessionals. Michaela was the boot, so we got a lot of her thoughts, namely that she didn't want to be the one that others wanted to get out. Too late! She noted how focused she was and how intense. Too late. And, with the seashells she showed how smart and strategic she was, too late. Toast.

Taylor, as the one that was blindsided the most last week, next to Figgy, got 2 immediate confessionals that were reactionary to the events. First of all how TC sucked because now Figgy is not around and how he misses her, and then the next one regarding how it's all revenge right now, from here on out. Then his last confessional showed us that he could care less about politics and strategy....I hate talking about politics. No matter what one group of people is never going to be happy. I’m not so concerned about who is going to be president, I just really don’t want to put my hope in politics.. Clearly, there is no strategy to this guy, but revenge is something that he can buy into, and he is OUT for it.

Taylor goes from 2 to 3 confessionals, and he's a big competitive threat in this game. WE hear that Chris and company want to target a millennial, he's in the triforce. He's at RISK. I fear for Taylor as Figgy was his only strategy and now that she's gone, he's alone, but we know the merge is looming and will he be another side kick for Jay? That is certainly what I am betting on IF he isn't booted at the merge.

Hanna jumps from 1 to 3 confessionals, clearly this arc is underway. She was first mostly narrational, telling us about how they are appearing united but it's going to be one of the GenX'rs, she doesn't trust Bret regarding being a Funeral Director. Second confessional is that even though he looks and walks like a cop, she just wants the other Millennials to be sketched out by him. Then her last confessional tells us about the idea of splitting the vote, girls vote Bret, boys vote Sunday, then second vote to get Bret out.

She had a strong presence in the show as well. We heard her reaction first when the tribe with Figgy voted out appeared..."WOW". Then, next week, we hear in the promos that Hanna is vowing revenge on Jay and company. Hanna has a spike in confessionals, but she'll be reuniting with Zeke and Adam. She's certainly non-threatening in challenges, she'll be a number for others. She ought to be safe, despite her spike, but I will put her at slight RISK. But, clearly her arc is underway.

David, Zeke, and Bret all had 2 confessionals. David is still one of the characters and stars of the show. His first confessional was Sitting on the beach with the Vanua tribe, if we lose the next IC, Michelle is absolutely the one to go. But, I would not put it past Chris to try and pull a fast one and vote me out instead of Michelle. (See Chris shaking a tree to get coconuts, trying to shake up the game? ) But, I do feel like I have a stronger bond with Zeke than I do with Chris cause frankly, I think we are cut from the same cloth. (See them walking on the beach....) So, I am thinking of showing him my idol. That would establish a tremendous amount of trust. But, I hate sharing knowledge that I have an idol, it’s a very risky move, or it’s a great move! You just really never know.

A significant confessional for sure especially since we now know that SEG manipulated it in that it actually occurs post merge. David will bridge together Ken, Jessica, and Zeke will bridge with Adam, and I could see these folks going far. David's last confessional was just fluff at the RC...about Jeff underestimating the reward and he'd be raving about this even if it was an LA restaurant!

David has options for next week, when it's merge time! l think he is SAFE.

Zeke is also in a good spot. He is steady from last week with 2 confessionals each week. His first confessional this week was: David told me that he had a hidden immunity idol! Which, I was just delighted to hear, right? Cause if you can’t have an HII, it’s good that someone that you are close to has a HII. I think David and I could have a future in this game together. He has put his life in my hands and I’m going to take very very good care of his life for the time being. We know that this bond will help to bind these two. Zeke's second confessional was in regard to the reward challenge where he channeled his inner fat kid, to eat as much as he could because the more calories he can consume now, the more it will benefit him later.

I see Zeke is making friends left and right. He's associated with Adam and Hanna from team Millennial, both of which will most likely be happy to pick back up with him. Then, he's now gained Chris and David as ally's that he can foster post merge. I see Zeke as SAFE.

Brett: He is one that really escaped with his life, this past week. He and Sunday are now indebted to Jay and Will. Brett had 2 confessionals where as last week he had zilch. He's beginning a new story arc with 2, and that in and of itself could put him at risk. HIs first confessional was regarding his interrogation by Hanna, but he won't divulge the truth cause he knows that policemen don't necessarily do well on Survivor.

His second confessional was that he and Sunday were going to have to write each others names down, he hated having his fate in the hands of others, but But, it is Survivor and you never know what’s gonna happen. Touchee.

Brett is a big boy, that Jay is squarely suspect of and doesn't trust. He went from 0 to 2 confessionals. He's at SLIGHT RISK.

Chris, Adam, Jessica, Michelle, Sunday, and Will all had 1 confessional. Chris' was straight narration of the events at the RC, guys are animals, Michelle is still human eating with a knife and fork. Chris had 0 confessionals last week, so he's beginning a new story arc. He's beginning it in a very low profile way. He has ties to old GenX'rs, and to a millennial. He could be a challenge threat, I'll put him at Slight RISK.

Adam did damage control at the top of the episode with Taylor. His lone confessional was regarding he did what he had to do, and got himself in a position of moving forward with some GenX'rs. ETA: I should add, however, that he takes a bit of a down turn when we see what transpires between Taylor, Jessica, and Ken. Clearly, he's seen as more strategic and that may not be a good thing. So, I'm going to change my assessment and say that he should be golden. He's about to be reunited with Zeke and company and Zeke's new friend, David, is tight with Ken/Jessica too. SAFE

Jessica had an interesting confessional that was used to create doubt regarding the boot if their tribe lost. Jessica has been stable with one confessional for each of the last 3 weeks. Her confessional was in regard to the dimwitted by truthful Taylor as compared to the more strategic Adam. She and Ken are just gathering as much info as they can to make the right decision should their tribe lose. Being a female who will be seen as far more non-threatening, and one who is closely associated with Ken and David, who have new options, I see her as SAFE.

Michelle, otoh, has one confessional and she's coming out from under the radar last week. She's starting a new story arc, will it be her final story arc? Her lone confessional was: The boys and their bodily functions, her mom taught her manners, but she is not going to change who she is for the game. This is a game about adapting and change, so I'd say this is an ominous confessional for Michelle, that they chose to present. I'd say she is at RISK.

Sunday also comes out from under the radar where she had been for prior 3 weeks. Her lone confessional was about feeling isolated and having her fate in the hands of others, holding back tears, then she cries, ending with but that's Survivor and we both know it. She is beginning a new story arc, will it be her last? As a female, however, she is totally non-threatening and she does have a little bond with Hanna, and one with Brett. I'll say that she is SAFE for this week.

Like Sunday, Will has one confessional after being under the radar for the past 3 weeks. Could be beginning a new or final story arc. His confessional was to add doubt as to what Jay would decide to do regarding booting out Michaela or Brett. Michaela is so intelligent, and every time I talk to her she is so methodical, I just need to pick the right time to get her out because I really like Michaela, she’s a great positive vibe to have around camp and I don’t think any of us want to see her go.
I see Will's confessional at this point as far more ominous than Sunday's, however, because he is male, he's tighter with Jay and Taylor and Michelle. But, he does not appear to be much of a challenge threat, constantly sitting out challenges? I will say that Will is at RISK.

There was one DAW that goes under the radar this episode falling from 2 to 0 confessionals and that was Ken. Ken has been a player in this season and now falls under the radar right before the merge. He's the biggest challenge threat out there. He has no idol, but he has a BFF with one. If he doesn't win immunity, it's not hard to see him getting voted out as the biggest threat to win challenges. Ken is definitively AT RISK. You could see how it could happen if votes are split, and Jay receives votes but plays his idol, then Ken could be bounced.

SAFE: David, Zeke, Adam, Jessica, Sunday

SLIGHT RISK: Hanna, Brett, Chris

AT RISK: Jay, Taylor, Michelle, Will, Ken

ETA: An assessment just based off of the confessional counts alone!
SAFE: Zeke, Jessica
SLIGHT RISK: David, Chris, Taylor, Adam, Michelle, Sunday, Will
AT RISK: Ken, Jay, Bret, Hanna