LAST EDITED ON 09-28-16 AT 06:05 PM (EST)

So sorry I am late to the party this episode, but I did want to post this prior to the airing of episode 2.

We have 2 sections to note with the first episode. The confessionals that were chosen to be shown in the intro, and those that are shown post intro. I consider the intro to be the ones shown prior to when Jiffy says: 20 Survivors, 39 days, 1 winner. Here we go:

The first confessional went to Taylor who spoke of what a lot of us may think a "Millennial" is....essentially a "peter pan type". HIs confessional was: My generation, it’s all about doing what you wanna do, and I have done a lot....bee keeper, I’ve brewed beer, snow board instructor, I’ve gone to N Dakota. I'm definitely a peter pan type, like I’ll never grow up, this is who I am and I can’t change.

The second confessional the second confessional gave us more insight into what a millennial is and it came from Mari. Interesting to note that it delivered the first winning quote of the episode... I play video games online for a living. And, as an adult you are constantly told, grow up, stop playing, but, I want to make my entire life about playing and Survivor is the game of games and I am going to win.

The third confessional came from another Millennial, Zeke, but his contrasted from the first two....The thing about young people, they are always on social media. They are always on twitter, but I don’t like being tied to my phone. I generally resent technology. I think twitter is the worst thing ever invented. I mean I am on twitter but I still think it’s horrendous.

The fourth confessional was from a Generation X'er, Chris. He told us what it's like for a Gen X: I’m an attorney and I am 38 years old and I know the older generation, they take and they actually listen and they use those life experiences. If you haven’t ever been knocked down, then you don’t know how to get up and fight.

The fifth confessional also came from a Gen X'r, Sunday: I have 4 kids and I am actually quite surprised at the 25 year old kids that sit home and play video games, so I just feel like they are a little bit more due sera, sera...if it takes me 7 years to get through school, who cares, my parents are paying for it.

And, the final confessional of the intro was from David: I am a tv writer and it took me 14 years in assistant purgatory to finally become a writer, and I don’t think younger people would put that kind of time into whatever their dream is. They would just try to find a new dream.

The confessionals were divided between the 2 opposing sides, and their content gives us their views of not only themselves but from what they perceive the other side to be like. We know that they are chosen carefully to underline the theme of the season, but often the winner is mixed within. Last season, Michele did not have an intro confessional. I tend to think they may just take the best quotes that serve to set up the season.

With the intros discussed above, here is our first look at the confessionals as they line up in episode one:

episode      | I | 1 | total
David    Tak | 1 | 4 | 5
Jessica  Tak | * | 4 | 4
Mari     Van | 1+| 3 | 4
Zeke     Van | 1 | 3 | 4
Chris    Tak | 1 | 3 | 4
Adam     Van | * | 3 | 3
Bret     Tak | * | 3 | 3
Hannah   Van | * | 3 | 3
Cece     Tak | * | 2 | 2
Paul     Tak | * | 2 | 2
Rachel   Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Sunday   Tak | 1 | 1 | 2
Taylor   Van | 1 | 1 | 2
Will     Van | * | 2 | 2
Figgy    Van | * | 1+| 1
Jay      Van | * | 1 | 1
Ken      Tak | * | 1 | 1
Michaela Van | * | 1 | 1
Michelle Van | * | 1 | 1
Lucy     Van | * | * | 0
+ = Winner Quote
 

Here is how I see this so far:

David: He's certainly a character. He gives an intro confessional that I think serves to set up the perception of the other tribe, the Millennials, in contrast to himself as a Gen X. HIs next confessional introduces himself as a character...."He doesn't like bugs and such", but he does like to game and strategize. We see a lot of him and his reactions while trying to be helpful with the building of the shelter and it's really comical. We are left to think, what is he doing out there? But, I remember that I felt the same way about Cochran on his first chance. His second confessional of the post intro segment underlines his weakness in building the shelter, and starts to emphasize his paranoia over his lack of physical strength over any one else which could lead to his being on the chopping block....he tells us of his neurosis and his fear of dying. But, continuing on he notes that he IS a gen X'r, and so he won't quit or give up, and while he is noting this he's crying and we hear very sympathetic soft music. This is an underdog edit, but we are supposed to want to root for him, I think. This is the one that doesn't fit as the Survivor, yet I think that there is hope for him. We hear: I am going to work hard to make this happen and I am going to turn this game around for myself....cue nice sympathetic soft music. I need to start looking really hard for the immunity idol. It might be the only thing that can save me.

His third confessional was about being paranoid he'd be going home, and the final confessional of the episode noted that he was still afraid that he'd be going, he hopes his speech was enough, but he wouldn't know until TC.

David I think is going to be a big character for the season, and he's certainly starting out in a very dubious manner as the underdog. With his edit, he could have garnered sympathy from us and hope that he'd survive for JUST this episode, OR, it could have garnered hope that he'll SURVIVE. I think he has legs, and not just for this episode, perhaps? I think that David is safe, but he could be at slight risk?

Jessica had 4 confessionals post intro. The first 2 confessionals were about her finding the clue, and the next was telling us what it was, the legacy advantage. She intends to be the only one that will get it and last the 36 days herself. Her next 2 confessionals had to do with the scrambling at the end of the episode, post challenge, pre TC. First she notes how David was seen scrambling looking for the idol, and he has one it will complicate things and he will be going home. The last one was about how if someone doesn't do well in the challenge it will magnify them as a boot choice, so she wants to vote out Rachel, but she's still worried that someone has the idol.

Jessica finding the clue to the Legacy Advantage throws the spot light on her. She is shown to be with the 2 guys, Chris, Brett, and we know that she voted with the 6....Chris, Bret, Paul, Jessica, Sunday, and Lucy. Jessica is SAFE.

Mari got an intro confessional exemplifying what Jiffy wants us to think of Millennials. She also got 3 after the intro. Her first one noted that this is war but the others on the other tribe must also think that they are the best generation. Her next confessional was elation that none of the millennials have "regular" jobs, they are all over the map, they see things in a completely diff't way and that is their strength. The next confessional was in regard to playing the game. She acknowledges the "popular" group and they need to tear that popular group apart, she will play this game like a video game and pull the misfits and outcasts together. She will start putting in people's ears that the four pretty people are inseparable, that's dangerous so while they, the misfits, have the numbers, they need to strike.

Mari is the face of the Millennials, and at this point she's riding the misfit/outcast wave. She's SAFE!

Zeke: His first confessional in the intro was contrasting to the prior Millennial confessionals...he hates social media, he does it, it's horrendous. His next confessional builds on how he's different than the rest of them....they are a bunch of kids, that have never had a real job, while he's got the heart of an 80 year old. After the evacuation and return to camp, the tide changed. Zeke becomes the leader, re-building the shelter and then building fire without a flint: I would rate our camp at like pigpen level, it’s is just a mud flat with like sticks of bamboo that are just haphazard sticking out and I am thinking, great, we will build a base, we got a tarp, it’s not going to be as bad as last night. it’s hard though because the rain never lets up and like last night was one of the hardest nights of my life. So, I don’t understand how it could get must worse than that.

Cut to Jiffy arriving by boat.

So, we are standing around camp, and Jeff Probst pulls up and I don’t know what he’s going to say, but I am a little nervous.

HIs last confessional: We get back to camp and it’s a wreck. We have a base but we need a roof, so we needed to hobble the shelter together and Iike I led the building of the second shelter....look, i don’t know how to build a shelter, I live in Brooklyn, I know how to ride the subway and that’s like the extent of my outdoor skills. But, you know what, I stepped up and I did it, it’s like against all odds I have become the leader of the camp....see him making fire....I never think of myself as the person that feels adept out here in the outdoors, I am not that kind of a person, but I am in on the idea of proving how tough I am, so, in a weird way Survivor is helping me rise to my potential. We have fire, and I made it! I never in a million years thought that I was going to be the guy that makes fire without flint! I feel like a milestone has been reached in my life that I’ve like become a new man I feel like I am growing as a person out here , I am affected by this experience in a very positive way! I’m very proud of myself right now! GREAT MUSIC, coming of age!

Clearly, Zeke is rising to the occasion. In his group of kids he's becoming the leader and rising to the occasion. He's a journey player perhaps that is already starting to reach potential. Let's see what else he can rise to! SAFE

Chris had an intro confessional that sets up the generational differences from his perspective. I see his confessionals as mostly narrational. After the intro his first confessional was about Dave, up there scrambling, he's paranoid, but he's also funny and charming, but he's pushing too hard too early. Next, he speaks about receiving the tarp and the ominous sign that is concerning the weather. Finally, he notes that Rachel was barking out orders and David blew the puzzle so those two are on the chopping block. Chris appears in good with Paul and Brett and Jessica perhaps. He voted with the six, I see him as safe.

Adam was like Chris, mostly narrational. First he tells us that they are all so happy and will prove that people are wrong about Millennials. Then, he tells us all about the horrible shelter they have, no roof, etc, everyone is so happy, nobody seems to care, he talks about how Millennials don't believe if you set your mind to something and you can dream big, then you can go ahead and accomplish it...Then, he talks about when Jiffy came with the tarp....this is unprecedented! This is not all fun and games this is the real deal. This is a real cyclone and there are real peoples lives at stake! With 3 confessionals that are all narrational, I feel like he's SAFE for now.

Bret is also mostly narrational. He notes how David is afraid of his own shadow, how he was covering his ears, there are more girls with more testosterone than him! Next, I wanted to beat the Mil’s so bad, we really have alot of people with strength and experience, I really thought that we would outshine them today and I am shocked that we didn’t. At the IC Rachel tells everyone that she can do puzzles, then she screws it all up. Finally, his last confessional he is debating over Rachel or David to vote for. Rachel is useless in challenges and that's a liability but he wants to write David's name down because he thinks he has an idol, but if they have 6 they can split the votes. We have myself, Chris, Paul, Sunday, Jess, and Lucy. So, Cece, Ken, Dave and Rachel will be left out of the loop as to who we are voting for. Bret tells us the dynamics, he's narrating. He's SAFE for now.

Hannah has 3 confessionals and she appears to be the first observer of the pretty people alliance. She's funny! Her first confessional: So, looking around, it makes me nervous because I am seeing all the beautiful faces of kappa kappa Survivor...cause I don’t want to be the obvious first out,but it’s hard when you don’t obviously fit in. Her next confessional was about the horrible shelter and how they can see the terrible storm approaching over the sea coming to get them like a monster to punish them for not building the shelter....narrational and very descriptor! Next, Hannah notes her plan...when you look at the group, there really has been like this division between the high school cool kids and the sort of misfit nerds. Cool kids vs. misfits and I do feel like the misfits are gonna be on the outs. So, I need now to squash that in the bud. Then she goes and enlists Mari. Hannah is going to be a player and is excellent at observation! She'll be SAFE this week!

Cece had 2 confessionals....first about the weather and the night of hell, then more about the storm and how they could have gotten hurt with the fallen tree. Considering her name was written down almost as much as Rachel's, we saw that she knew she was out of the loop but clung to Rachel....they didn't even vote together. I'd say that Cece is on the outside looking in. I'll put her AT RISK.

Paul had 2 confessionals, first he expects all of the Gen X'rs to be his caliber, hard workers, sound decision making etc., then, about Jeff coming to camp, knew something was up. Not much of a showing, but in with the 6, so I'll say SAFE for now.

Rachel commented on the weather and cyclone and then the second to the last confessional about not expecting to feel this way this soon in the game and that she and Cece are on the chopping block, it's not a good sign when people say "I don't know", so "I don't know"! David and Rachel got the last 2 confessionals as they were on the chopping block.

Sunday: She got an Intro confessional about her perception of Millennials, and then another confessional about Rachel: Rachel is definitely over eager she’s definitely confrontative, when you are in a group, it can bring a lot of negativity to the group, and people don’t like it. She gave the reason to vote Rachel off. She's in with the 6 so she's SAFE.

Taylor got the first confessional of the season, he's the face of the Millennials, and his confessional was what the producers want you to think of them....they never want to grow up and they can do anything, like going to North Dakota! His first confessional post intro: I’ve got an awesome tribe there is one guy that I connect with, name's Jay. He’s got this gnarly hair and I can tell he’ s just a bro. He’s gonna be someone that I can get along with pretty easily. ....and then I def. hit it off with Figs cause she’s pretty darn cute, laughs. And also Michelle, cause they are pretty good looking and I am a sucker for pretty girls. So, I already have a connection with these people here.
I think what a naiive little Peter Pan he is. These girls will eat him for lunch. He's seen with the pretty people, and he's at high RISK! If he isn't the first one out of their tribe, maybe he can learn, but I am dubious about his chances.

Will: Will had 2 confessionals as well, and he's narrational.....may the best generation win and then he gives us a blow by blow of how they all decided to take a break and have a beach party while their shelter was unfinished and the dark clouds were moving in, their shelter was one of the worst in Survivor history, And, I am thinking to myself there is no way we are getting the shelter finished in time. Will is not in with the pretty people so I think if his tribe goes to TC, he's SAFE.

Figgy: Back home I am a flirty girl and I am the center of attention. I’m good at manipulating men. People think that I am just a pretty face but they don’t know the brains behind the face. Maybe I will end up getting the million dollar check and I’ll get a husband ****Winner quote****Jay and I had a connection like right off the bat and Taylor is my blue-eyed beauty, and I think he’s so attractive. And, I knew those 2 boys are tight so of course I wanted to be a part of that, it’s going to be strong.

Figgy is a smart cookie, imo, and she knows what she wants and she knows how to get it, but unfortunately for her, Hannah has her number too. Taylor looks like the tool that is eating out of her hand. The player between Taylor and Figgy is certainly Figgy. I think for that reason Figgy is at HIGH RISK.

Jay: one confessional: Taylor is my boy, I call him Tails, Figgy is my girl, they are my go two, we are cool, Namaste Michelle is cool too, she's one hot girl, btw, super hot. Clearly, Jay is "stoked" that he has his "go to's" already. But, we know that being a part of a strong 4 is not necessarily the best place to be when there are 6 more who have your number. AT RISK.

Ken: 1 confessional: Gives us some insight into himself....he's at home in the elements, wants to be uplifting to the group, have their backs. Team player, BUT, we find out that he IS NOT one of the six, they are not having his back. Is this an ominous sign for Ken? I think he's out of the loop but he's not making waves either, so I will keep him SAFE at least for this week.

Michaela: Very insignificant in the first episode, but did get one confessional about the weather and a reaction to Jiffy coming to camp. She's with the misfits, so she's SAFE for now.

Michelle: I think people see me as truthful cause of my faith, you know people have been coming up to me, you know Jay and I made a little bond, I also had Hannah tell me she’ll trust me and in this game having people trust you in this game, that’s very beneficial. Then she chops with the machete...( I think she’s going to betray). We see Michelle is in the pretty people group, but we also saw Hannah talking with her. She's in a good position, and people assuming too much about her can be very much in her favor, come down the road. For now, however, she's being noticed with the popular kids so she will be at SLIGHT RISK.

Lucy: No confessionals, could be a hidden boot next, but she was with the "6", so I will have her as SAFE.

From confessionals:

SAFE: Mari, Zeke, Chris, Adam, Bret, Hannah, Paul, Sunday, Will, Ken, Michaela, Lucy

Sight RISK: David, Michelle

At RISK: Cece, Jay

HIGH RISK: Taylor, Figgy,

• Episode 2 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 09:47 AM, 10-03-16
  • RE: Episode 2 Confessionals,michel2, 02:04 PM, 10-03-16
• Episode 3 confessionals,Flowerpower1, 05:37 PM, 10-10-16
  • RE: Episode 3 confessionals,CTgirl, 06:14 PM, 10-10-16
  • RE: Episode 3 confessionals,michel2, 06:30 PM, 10-10-16
    • RE: Episode 3 confessionals,Flowerpower1, 10:37 PM, 10-10-16
• Episode 4 confessionals: ,Flowerpower1, 12:21 PM, 10-14-16
• Episode 5 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 05:09 PM, 10-20-16
  • RE: Episode 5 Confessionals,SquidProQuo, 06:03 PM, 10-20-16
  • RE: Episode 5 Confessionals,CTgirl, 06:59 PM, 10-20-16
  • RE: Episode 5 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 09:00 PM, 10-20-16
• Episode 6 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 12:34 PM, 10-28-16
  • RE: Episode 6 Confessionals,michel2, 08:08 PM, 10-30-16
• Episode 7 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 11:50 AM, 11-04-16
• Episode 8 Confessionals, "I'm the Kingpin",Flowerpower1, 09:40 PM, 11-12-16
  • RE: Episode 8 Confessionals, "I'm the Kingpin",michel2, 04:02 AM, 11-13-16
    • Random Thoughts,Flowerpower1, 06:22 PM, 11-13-16
• Episode 9 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 08:33 PM, 11-22-16
  • RE: Episode 9 Confessionals,Outsider32, 11:48 PM, 11-22-16
• Episode 10 confessionals....,Flowerpower1, 09:18 PM, 11-26-16
• RE: S: 33|Confessional Analysis,Flowerpower1, 05:36 PM, 12-04-16
  • RE: S: 33|Confessional Analysis,michel2, 12:03 PM, 12-05-16
• Episode 12 Confessionals....,Flowerpower1, 11:39 AM, 12-10-16
  • RE: Episode 12 Confessionals....,michel2, 12:34 PM, 12-10-16
    • EEEEEKKKKK! ,Flowerpower1, 03:11 PM, 12-10-16
  • RE: Episode 12 Confessionals....,Sheldor, 12:31 PM, 12-11-16
    • RE: Episode 12 Confessionals....,Flowerpower1, 07:25 PM, 12-11-16
      • RE: Episode 12 Confessionals....,Sheldor, 07:48 PM, 12-11-16
        • RE: Episode 12 Confessionals....,Sheldor, 09:49 PM, 12-15-16
          • RE: Episode 12 Confessionals....,Flowerpower1, 01:01 PM, 12-16-16

episode      | I | 1 | 2 | total
David    Tak | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9
Jessica  Tak | * | 4 | * | 4
Mari     Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Zeke     Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 6
Chris    Tak | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5
Figgy    Van | * | 1+| 4 | 5
Michaela Van | * | 1 | 4 | 5
Adam     Van | * | 3 | 1 | 4
Paul     Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 4
Taylor   Van | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4
Bret     Tak | * | 3 | * | 3
Hannah   Van | * | 3 | * | 3
Jay      Van | * | 1 | 2 | 3
Ken      Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 3
Michelle Van | * | 1 | 2 | 3
Sunday   Tak | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Cece     Tak | * | 2 | * | 2
Will     Van | * | 2 | * | 2
Lucy     Van | * | * | * | 0
Eliminated
Rachel   Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari     Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
+ = Winner Quote
 

Wow! Did not see Mari going this week, but she was one of the ones with the most confessionals, which is a spike, she certainly had the spike before the fall. I have to get back into the thinking of how boots can go.....there is the spike before the fall, and there is the dip to no confessionals for the hidden boot. Then, there are those that have the most shift from many confessionals to few, and vice versa, no confessionals to a lot. All things need to be considered!

This week there is ALOT of movement. I think the Millennials were primarily focused on because there was SO much action there. Essentially the only thing we got from Gen X was that Ken and David are BFF's and brought in Cece and they are primarily targeting the head of the snake, Paul. While Paul has to be in control, but was not in control when he suffered heat exhaustion and dehydration. With their immunity win, Paul feels back in control, and when you feel over confident we know what can happen.

The Millennials were all over the place, lots of drama, and at least two of them proved that they do indeed know how to play the game.

David, Figgy, and Michaela all had the most confessionals this week at 4 a piece. David's confessionals consisted of how grateful he was to his tribe, he has a Gen X attitude, but he needed to prove himself, but he's more of a Cochran than an Ozzy. His second confessional was about him hunting for the idol while at the same time collecting rocks to sit on. OMG, he was successful and this is just what he needs to get the confidence to make big strategic moves right now! Third confessional was about his relationship with Ken, how different he was but in Survivor you need at least one person to trust, and for him it's Ken and he thinks he is it for Ken. His final confessional was about Paul's collapse and how it might be good for him, being so weak right now that’s going to make it easier to convince people, you know what, it might be time to get rid of Paul..

For me, it clearly seems like David is indeed one of the characters for the season. He's an underdog with a capital D, and now that he's hooked up with the 'adonis" and the most physical threat in the game, while also finding the HII, there is hope for him. While he has been mentioned as the next target for his tribe, he's got an HII and I bet he's not afraid to use it, which makes him SAFE for this week.

Figgy was the boot decoy this week and her confessionals surrounded her relationship with Taylor and then with Michaela. Her first confessional was all about how she didn't come here for romance but look how gorgeous Taylor is and she gets to cuddle with that! Her second was My tribe doesn’t even consider Taylor and I as a power couple threat, maybe because we are the millennials. Like, people like cough cough, Michaela, are throwing it out there and trying to put a target on our backs, but nobody cares. Her third was Michaela is being a complete B!TCH about nothing. This girl is crazy um, I want her as far away from me as possible. This girls gotta go. Her last confessional was how being on the chopping block was like a knife in her chest, but she and Michaela have had their differences but she has to stick with us!

Figgy had a spike from 1 to 4! That's a large spike. She was on the chopping block and was spared by the efforts of Michelle and Jay, but not by her own efforts. I think she is still at risk.

Michaela also had a large spike from 1 to 4, and she was named as Zeke's second target after Figgy. Michaela is the one that is salty and cantankerous, which as Adam noted is not the best way to START playing Survivor. Her first confessional was about Figgy and Taylor kissing and how gross that was, her second confessional was about the flirt that Figgy is and how dumb she is and how she needs to slow down and pull the rabbit out of the hat later, not walk in with it, then how if she has something to say that her mouth was not saying, then her face was speaking loud and clear. Then the third confessional was The couple would be dangerous if she was gonna stay around, but I’m just convinced that Figgy’s going home, so! Get your kisses in cause that couple is just about to go down to one real quick! . Then, her final confessional was second to the last and was noting how she was fine with Figgy going hoe but if Jay is telling the truth she could be in trouble, it's up in the air.

With Michaela being more unstable and outspoken then the rest, she's in a precarious position. While she voted with Figgy and company once, I don't know if she isn't a wild card and that may turn the vote toward her. With her spike up, she is at RISK.

There were 7 people with 2 confessionals. Zeke went from 3 to 2 confessionals, but his confessionals are animated, his first one was about millennials taking hook ups less seriously, but they need to remember they are playing Survivor. HIs last one was about losing the IC but he's excited because he can't wait to go to TC and vote someone out cause he's here to win the million dollars! Yes, a million $ quote! Zeke is still one of the characters of the season and even while he was excluded from the vote, I think he's safe for this week.

Paul had 2 confessionals, one was about it's day 6 and no fire yet, but Cece and David were on the chopping block, and the next one was about how he loves to be in control, he has to be 100% in control, he doesn't have a choice he breathes control. Then he proceeds to lose control with his heat exhaustion. Paul had 2 confessionals last week as well, so he's stable, but he was identified as David/Ken's primary target, he's at RISK.

Taylor went from 1 to 2 confessionals. His first was he's smitten with Figgy and has love googles on and the next was about Mac calling he and Figgy out but Millennials are dreamers and he's dreaming big. This guy is a tool so far. He had 1 confessional post intro last week, and 2 this week. He's in the cross hairs for a lot of the tribe, but after Figgy. He's at risk.

Jay went from 1 to 2 confessionals and from what he swung with Michelle, I'd say his stock is rising. His first confessional was reactionary about his boy, Tails, Wake up! Gonna be stuck at home with your girl while it's bros night out at the bowling alley, this is where we need to blow up because this is not good! His second was narrational about Figs and Taylor going home but then it comes foreshadowing because things could go crazy, which they usually do. I see Jay being in good with Zeke/Adam but at the heart of things with Michelle, I see him as SAFE.

Ken also went from 1 - 2 confessionals. HIs first told us that spear fishing and surviving were things he was used to his entire life but he identified with David, he was the guy with the speech impediment and the twitches, and David getting confidence was giving him some. The next he comments on how he believes in his and Dave's Alliance and with Dave's idol they could do something big, like take Paul out, didn't want to give him too much time to try and counter. I feel that Ken's stock is on the rise, he's SAFE.

Michelle also went from 1 to 2 confessionals. She was amazing, and her actions underlined her confessionals. Her first one was It doesn’t make sense to get rid of Figgy. Right now my alliance with Jay, Figgy, and Taylor we got to keep that number and we gotta switch the vote. Mari is really dangerous because she’s smart but tonights TC is about keeping people who I know will stick with me moving forward. Her last confessional was the last one before TC: This first TC is gonna draw a line, Figgy can’t go tonight it has to be someone else. It’s really scary to me because I am not sure that we have the numbers to save Figgy. So, I might have to pull strings at TC to make sure that I have the numbers to get what I want.

Michelle is in a sweet spot, she's well liked and trusted by most and she has friends. I see her stock as rising, I think she is SAFE this week.

Chris, Adam, and Sunday all had 1 confessional. Adam and Chris both dropped from 3 to 1 confessionals. Chris' was about David as the target, and Adam's was about Figgy putting herself in the cross hairs and the rules of Survivor, no showmance's, catfights, etc. Sunday's confessional was reactionary from Paul's collapse, if it happened to him it could happen to any of them, and she likes him. Chris falls a bit under the radar, he's on the side with numbers, I think he's safe. Adam is in the minority, got caught outside of the majority, he could be at RISK. Sunday is stable, she's not been called out by anyone as threatening, I'd say that she is SAFE this week.

Under the radar with no confessionals: Will, Lucy, Hannah, Cece, Bret, and Jessica. Will dropped from 2 to 0 confessionals which could spell trouble for him. I'd say he's at RISK. But, Jessica went from 4 to 0, which definitely places her at RISK for a hidden surprise boot. Hannah and Bret dropped from 3 to 0 and Lucy is stable. Cece went from 2 to zip, and she was targeted last time, she's in the minority, and Paul is still calling her name, she's at risk.

Possibly SAFE this week:

David, Zeke, Jay, Ken, Michelle, Sunday, Chris, Lucy, Hannah, Bret

At RISK: Figgy, Michaela, Taylor, Adam, Will, Cece, Paul, Jessica

Great work, FP.

This will be very useful once again so I appreciate the time you put into just just to tally those interviews.

I think Gen X goes to TC so Cece, Paul and Jessica are good candidates to meet Jeff's snuffer.

LAST EDITED ON 10-10-16 AT 05:39 PM (EST)

episode      | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | total
David    Tak | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14
Zeke     Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 7
Chris    Tak | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7
Figgie   Van | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | 7
Michaela Van | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7
Paul     Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Adam     Van | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 6
Jessica  Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 6
Taylor   Van | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6
Hannah   Van | * | 3 | * | 2 | 5
Ken      Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5
Jay      Van | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4
Sunday   Tak | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4
Cece     Tak | * | 2 | * | 2 | 4
Bret     Tak | * | 3 | * | * | 3
Michelle Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | 3
Will     Van | * | 2 | * | 1 | 3
Lucy     Van | * | * | * | * | 0
Eliminated
Rachel   Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari     Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul     Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
+ = Winner Quote
 

There are so many DAWs in this season that doing confessionals is work! Paul got 3 confessionals in his boot episode and there were so many camera pans to him at inopportune times, falling in the surf, during the challenge, etc. etc.

This week there are a few interesting things to note. First of all, after such a STELLAR night in episode 2, Michelle goes from 2 to zip in confessionals, falling under the radar. She's the mastermind behind the scenes, the invisible puppet master, getting no blame for things as the fall out occurs at camp Millennial. I think it bodes well for her.

Her partner in crime, Jay also dropped from 2 to 1 confessionals, taking a lower profile. His one confessional was about the summit and who he hoped Figgy and Taylor wouldn't make out and embarrass them. Him settling down is also a good thing for him at this point, I think. I did see him be the one to ask Jeff after the challenge if they could have fishing gear instead of the comfort items....is he the new leader of Tribe Millennial? If he is, that would be interesting. In a tribe full of followers it's good to be the leader, but, is their tribe all followers? I don't think so....

As for the other two of the TRI-FORCE...Taylor and Figgy: Taylor's first confessional is simple narration laughing about who gets to go to the summit, his top people in his alliance: Me, Fig, Jay, and Will. His next confessional: Strategically, the Millennial tribe is moving forward and it’s really great for me. Ha! Ha! Me and Figs are pretty good at the moment. My girl’s here, she’s happy, and this couldn’t be a better position to be in, really. See Taylor and Figgy holding hands, then they plot to get out Zeke next. I don't like this confessional for Taylor....he's arrogant, he's still blinded by "his girl". I really feel that he is an insignificant person in the story of this season. So much so that I feel that he or Figgy will be meeting their demise shortly, and when one goes the other may be soon to follow? Taylor's count was stable. Sight risk.

Figgy, OTOH, dropped from 4 confessionals last week to 2 this week. Her confessionals were comments post return after TC,; Zeke and Adam were like: “Taylor and Figgy; well done, I commend you.” And like it’s not just us, buddy. There were seven votes. Adam and Zeke are at the bottom at this rate if we go back to Tribal. People that write down Figgy’s name go home., then her next one was: The boys went in the water and Taylor and I talked to Cece and David. We are trying to learn if they are on the outs, if there are any divisions in their tribe. The first confessional was insightful in that Figgy knows that she and Taylor were given credit, while she also knows that it wasn't because of them that they were saved. She realizes that she's in the spot light and she doesn't necessarily like it. She's a bit arrogant as well. Then the next confessional was far more informative than anything Taylor had to say. I think Figgy is safe for the time being, but she is on someone's radar, namely Adam and Zeke's.

David had the most confessionals this week, 5, which were mostly narrational. He tells us that he, Cece, and Ken are on the bottom but he's a GenX'r and will work and not give up. Next, he was chosen to go and as a Survivor Super Fan, and so far he's achieving all of his Survivor dreams. HIs next confessional was about Paul, rock star, doesn't ask the audience but tells them about him, etc, and he is not giving up and when there is a swap or merge he will need their help to vote out Paul. His next confessional told us he got a very important 30 seconds with Taylor, come a swap he'll turn on the GenX'rs. And finally, After they got back from the summit he feels with Taylor he has a ray of hope which is what he's needed.

David is giving us a lot of insight into his own game, and I could see this all as foreshadowing. I do believe he's sitting pretty for a while. SAFE

His buddy, Ken, got 2 confessionals, stable from last week, but his confessionals were very anti Paul as the leader....he doesn't do what he says, and would you want someone like that leading you into battle....sure sounds like it's Ken that would rather be the leader. We see Paul not doing what he says he's going to do, but we DO see Ken doing what he says he's going to do. Additionally, it was Ken that went to Jessica and pointed out that Paul was not doing for the tribe what he said he would be. Then, we know what happened.

For now, Ken is safe. They NEED him. He is feeding the tribe. It was Ken that spoke for the GenX'rs when they were at the challenge, and he responded that they could not have fishing gear. So, looks like Ken is well on his way to becoming leader, perhaps.

Zeke dropped from 2 to 1 confessional. He's not sitting pretty now as he told us, he was excited about TC, and then HE was blindsided. He could be at risk if they go to TC.

Adam, otoh, had a great night, imo. His first confessional: It’s been my dream since I was 9 years old to play this game and have this experience. I did not expect my first Tribal Council to be my first #Blindside. Now, I’m going to have to play from the bottom and it’s going to take a lot of work to get back into a position of power but I wouldn’t count me out. I think I can get back up to the top again. And, it was the prelude to the intro. A very stellar and meaty confessional for Adam, imo. A fantastic million dollar quote! And, we all know how Survivor LOVES a good underdog!

Then, The status quo of the tribe is not a good position for me. I am still flabbergasted by that vote, cause Figgy sucks at Survivor. You can’t make an obvious pair that is strong, good looking, talented in the challenges, and is not a threat in this game! And so, If Figgy goes home there would be a shift, and that’s what I need to happen in order to have some semblance of power here. Then, right after his confessional we see him talking to Michaela and Hannah about how it makes no sense, blah, blah, blah. He's making a very good point, and Michaela confirms what he said later, but she'll wait to make the call and listen to her gut when the time comes. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaela does just that later and goes with Adam.

Right now, I see Adam as at slight risk, but solely because he and Zeke are not in the 6. But clearly, they have Hannah, and I think they will get Michaela soon!

Michaela's confessionals are identical to Figgy. We all know she hates Figgy. I think Michaela will trust her gut, and join up with Adam/Zeke/Hannah soon, and possibly get rid of her nemesis. We'll see. For now, she's safe.

Chris went from 1 - 2 confessionals. HIs confessionals just set up Paul's and his own blindside. He's at slight risk.

Cece went from 0 - 2 confessionals. First one was about telling Taylor and Figgy that Paul was the leader at the summit, then her last one was about not knowing what was up, she could be going, no one was telling her anything. Cece is with David and Ken, and that is the best thing she has going for her. She's terrible at challenges, and she's not gaining social ground. I will say she's at risk, with a rise in confessionals and not much else to go on.

Jessica: She also went from 0 to 2 this week. But, she made the move. Her first confessional was talking about Ken being worried as he was in the minority, and her best bet was to stay with the 6, then her last confessional was very ominous for her....she's afraid of what would happen if Paul were voted out, and she's afraid of what would happen if he isn't voted out. Very ominous indeed. I think Jessica is at High Risk.

Sunday: She's a narrator, and she's solid at one confessional, but now she's thrown in with Jessica and broken the 6. Hmmm? Safe for this week.

Will: 1 confessional because he's excited to go to the summit with the GenX'rs. Will is seen with the triforce. But, is that the 'right' side to be with?

Lucy, Bret, Michelle: UTR
Lucy was seen being mean to people that were cheering for her in the challenge, and then in the preview promo for next week. She's certainly not making friends....

High Risk: Jessica
At Risk: Lucy, Cece
Slight risk: Taylor, Zeke, Adam

Thanks so much for doing the FloPo! I know its a lot of work!

I love looking at it each week. Poor Lucy. I wonder what she did to ##### Jeff off!

Great work, FP. I agree with those you put at risk, especially on Gen X. For the Millennials, I'd add Hannah who had a spike and could be voted out by both sides.

Yes, you make a good point, michel! Hannah did not have a stellar showing and she's placed herself on a fence, and we all know what happens to fence sitters, don't we Dolly?

LAST EDITED ON 10-17-16 AT 10:43 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 10-15-16 AT 08:19 AM (EST)

episode      | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | total
David    Tak | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18
Chris    Tak | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10
Adam     Van | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 8
Jessica  Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 8
Michaela Van | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 8
Zeke     Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 8
Figgie   Van | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 7
Ken      Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7
Taylor   Van | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 6
Hannah   Van | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | 5
Jay      Van | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5
Sunday   Tak | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 4
Cece     Tak | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 4
Bret     Tak | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 4
Michelle Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 3
Will     Van | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 3
Lucy     Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Eliminated
Rachel   Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari     Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul     Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy     Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
+ = Winner Quote
 

Well, Lucy appeared to be in the most trouble in the preview promos as well as in the promo. Sometimes the blatant one in trouble is indeed the boot. Every season we watch it happen. Lucy got her spike in her boot episode and we saw it coming via the promos. **When a daw is under the radar and all of a sudden you see them making confessionals and visible in the promos, it raises a very large RED FLAG.

This episode there were only 20 confessionals, about 10 less than usual. I think because they had two long challenges, and the fact that Adam's confessionals were very long pertaining to the HII.

David continues to be the "character" of the season. Will he be the character of the season as Tony V was?

We will start with David, who had 4 confessionals, which is one less than he had last week, but remember, there was less time for confessionals this week so I think he's steady. His first confessional wasn't until after the RC, he went for a walk with Lucy, as he wanted to to get an idea as to what was going on in her head, cause if we go back to TC I am afraid that Ken and I are still on the bottom. I think the smartest thing for me to do now is to go along with the way the majority is leaning.

This is let's us know how David is thinking and what his plan is. As he and Ken appear to still be tight, we can ASSume that Ken and Cece are on board with him.

His second confessional: IRL, I think that Lucy is used to calling the shots but out here you have to be careful that things you say could be taken the wrong way or rub someone the wrong way because you can really ##### some people off and that is exactly what happened. Because, Ken wants to vote her out, but, tbh, it sounds like a really great idea.

So, Ken planted the seed and David is on board. The story at Gen X appears to be told through David's eyes, which makes me believe he is likely to last beyond the Gen X lines. You have to wonder if his story is the story of the season, will it continue once they swap and merge?

His third confessional is straight narrational: Right now things are blowing up in a big way! His final confessional gives us suspense prior to TC as his was the final confessional of the episode: At this point, I think the safest thing might be to just write down Jessica‘s name, but if I do that I just end up right back on the bottom. The other option I have is I could play my immunity idol for Jessica and save her,but I lied to Lucy straight to her face and I think she knows it. I’m sure she knows it. I just want to have the idol for safety and security. I don’t plan on playing it....sigh. I have a lot to think about.

A perfect confessional to end with, I might add, will he play it or no? This is a meaty confessional. While many cannot understand how he would play an idol on someone else and lose it, while he, himself was not in danger, I applaud him for PLAYING. He's made an ally for as long as she and the game, but let's face it, with every move he makes he's more and more a target. What will it do to his and Ken's relationship, clearly Ken was not in on his plan?

I think David is SAFE for the next episode. His confessionals are steady, he's the biggest character of the season, so far. He's made a relationship, however hasty, with some of the Millennial's, he's SAFE this week.

Chris had the second most confessionals with 3, which was a spike from last week, up 1. I am beginning to think that Chris is the counter point to David. We hear from Chris, then David, etc. Chris had the first confessional of the episode, telling us how pi$$ed he was coming back, wanting to pull a Brandon Hantz and throw the rice in the ocean, becoming a tribe of one. Next, he tells us that Lucy thinks she has Dave and Ken, and she wants to make a move on Jess. I don’t like Jess, I can’t stand her, so, if I can help chop Jess, that’s what I am going to do now. I assume, as we see Chris sticking closely to Bret that he's their mouthpiece.

I have to say that I was surprised that the 2 big guys didn't go straight away to David and Ken, as they never betrayed them. Just makes me think that Chris and Bret are not the brightest bulbs on the Survivor tree.

His final confessional: Losing immunity today was a tough loss, cause I am not sure what’s going to happen. I mean Bret and I got blindsided 2 nights ago, so I don’t feel comfortable at all. But, we have a plan to blindside Jess and I am counting on Lucy to make that happen.

His last confessional is dynamic in that it gives us his opinion of where he thinks he stands and insight into his plan moving forward. We see that his loyalty is misplaced once again. Will he ever align with Dave and Ken, (Cece), or will he be their nemesis?
Moving forward, he could be at RISK, but we know there is a swap next week. He's made a connection with 4 of the Millennials. I think, personally, he'll be safe. He's a challenge beast and will be favored until at least the merge, and he's the yang to David's ying......for now. But, he's a physical threat and if he gets on the wrong side of the numbers, he's at SLIGHT RISK.

While David and Chris told the story of the episode, it was Adam who was the star of this show this week, imo. Adam, who was at the very bottom of the Millennial totem pole is climbing up one rung at a time....comparing him to David at Gen X. This season it is the people who are in greatest need of the HII, that do seem to find it. I don't know whether production helps them along or not, but clearly it proves the point or at least underlines the point that if you need it badly enough, you will do what you have to do to get it, whether it's finding hidden idols or pulling out immunity challenges.

This is the theme of what Survivor seems to be all about....never giving up, no matter how bleak, and making your own way and LUCK in the game happen. The story of the underdog and the little engine that could.

Adam had the million dollar quote last week when he told us that it would be harder to get to the top from the bottom, but he would do it, then this week we see him finding the HII. We have to think that perhaps he could just do it?

His first confessional: Hidden immunity searching has really died down at this camp...but, I have a feeling that it might still be out there. So, I do feel like I need to re-dedicate myself to that search because after Mari was voted out my head is definitely on that chopping block. And, if I could somehow get my hands on an idol, I could somehow save myself. Finds the clue: Oh my, oh my, OMG! Cries and reads it....This is incredible! Confessional continues: For a Survivor super duper fan like me, this is what dreams are made of. I found the clue, now I just have to figure this thing out. I don’t know how much time I can spare looking for it so I gotta go back to camp and look another time.

His final confessional post RC: I wish I could have performed better but that was never going to be my challenge. I’m not super comfortable with physical competitions. I just feel like I need to find this idol more than ever, but I don’t have a lot of time left because I need to make sure I find it before, 1) we go back to TC, or 2) we swap. Foreseeing a swap tells us that Adam is indeed a superfan and is at least familiar with the game!

The clue says you have to look for the tribe motif somewhere in this designated area and look for this shell. If you break open the shell you will find the hidden immunity idol. I’m looking everywhere and I just don’t see it, so I am walking along the beach and just hope that something hits me....Hear Hannah say, "HEY ADAM!" (oh nooooo), "how’s your idol search going?" He replies, "I’m working on it", and she replies, "good luck, buddy"! Then it looks like he asks the camera man, "did she see me with this?" and he goes, "UHHHHH", and ominous music plays...

He puts it on, I just found the HII, this is beyond my wildest dream! I finally went for it today and I got it!

It was really tough to make the decision to come out here. My mom was diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer about 7 months ago. It’s such a devastating disease. It’s been such a night mare. Crying and becoming more emotional he continues: It’s been the worst thing you could possibly imagine. So, like to have my biggest dream is coming true at the same time that my worst night mare is happening. It’s not, it doesn’t feel real. My mom is a huge super fan. She is the ultimate reason for being here. I want to give my mom something to look forward to. Being able to watch me find this, that’s what I came out here to do, to bring some joy back to my family.

So, we have now heard the motivation behind Adam and his story, and I think it really cut to the core, to our core. I was moved to tears as I empathized with him as a mother, who is also a superfan. To see a child agonizing with his circumstance. I know I am rooting for him at this point, but I still have to question can he do it. He's given us a million dollar quote and he's putting his money where his mouth is, but is he playing more to give his family hope and something to look forward to, or is he playing to really win the million? In other words, he could be our journey player, OR, he just might be a WINNER!

I see Adam with an HII in his pocket and as a steady character that is being developed as SAFE.

Jessica had 2 confessionals and is stable from last week. First one: Tonight there are some very unhappy people esp. Bret and Chris. Whether or not they believe me, I really don’t know. I think right now there is too much anger. I am very nervous now, I‘m hoping that it was not a bad idea.

Jessica sure doesn't seem very intuitive or perceptive as is underlined by her next confessional which came after Ken's revelation to her regarding the rest of the tribe: I am stunned, Ken’s telling me that I’m now the one that everyone is gunning for because I am the mastermind of the Paul thing, which surprises me greatly because I thought we all came up with it together! So it seems a little suspicious.

Jessica clearly needs someone more knowledgable about the intricacies of Survivor to help her navigate her way. It makes me think she will not get to the end, but if she joins with the other misfits on her tribe, can she be a number later? She totally turned on Ken, her true ally, and then was schooled by David. She needs help. Will she be able to make amends with Ken? I think so. Ken needs her just as much as she needs him. She was stable with 2 confessionals, she got her eyes OPENED wide (truly), I believe she's SAFE for now, but could be in trouble if she gets on the wrong side of the numbers with the swap, but being a weaker girl as opposed to a strong male, I think she will not be a primary target yet. SAFE

Ken was also stable with 2 confessionals. Lucy approached me and Dave and said we’re gonna vote out Jess and what basically got to me was that Lucy had a list of rules and regulations of what we were and weren’t allowed to do. Do not talk to this person, do not go off by yourself,and I am thinking we went from one dictator to another and, it doesn’t fly with me.

Ken tells us his perception of the new situation. Next, I’m shocked, I thought the relationship I had with Jen was genuine. I just found out she totally betrayed me, taking everything I said and delivering it to Lucy on a silver platter.

Ken seemingly is not the most perceptive in the bunch either, guilty of trusting the wrong people, just as Jessica was. But, David is Ken's closest ally, and it was Ken that pointed out if they vote out Jessica, they are still on the bottom. So, I think David will be able to pull Ken back in, and perhaps mend fences with Jessica. Funny, David is the glue that will hopefully keep them all together. With steady confessionals he seems stable, but as a challenge threat, he's at RISK. With the preview promo, we heard Jiffy say and "A Surprise twist threatens to tear two lovers apart", but the first face we saw when he said this was KEN'S, then Taylor's. Made me think Ken would be torn away first, if he is, he could be TOAST.

Michaela, Zeke, Jay, and Bret all had one confessional. Bret comes up from under the radar in the past 2 episodes, to give us one comment on how he feels after being blindsided by Jessica: Lucy come up and said, Jessica is the one trying to pull all the strings here. Jessica has a huge game going here and I applaud her for that. But you are now showing your cards. This is straight narration, he's pi$$ed at Jessica.
Bret's game is not being developed at this point because his story arc will either start later, OR, he'll have no real character development, (a la Lucy). I hope he does however, because he does seem like a character! Coming out from under the radar right before a swap puts him at risk, I think. He's a big, strong guy and if he is on the wrong side of the numbers after an IC loss, he could be a big target. AT RISK.

Michaela: She goes from 2 to 1 confessional this week. She only got it because she showed us she didn't care about showing her tata's, she only cared about winning! Hmmmm, could we take that as a million dollar quote? Why not! Jiffy loved it, and apparently, so did Tribey! Her confessional: I don’t know what happened, I just like to win! Bathing suit like getting ripped off, it’s like you can either lose or you can let your bathing suit get ripped off and win. So I was like, hand gestures, they are about to see some tata’s today.

Michaela has shown that she is a physical threat for the woman. And we know she has attitude, but she does seem to be a team player, so far. She is really in a great position, straddling the cool kids, triforce, and Adam/Zeke/Hannah et al. I see her as safe this week. SAFE.

Zeke: He's also one of the characters that is being developed this season. He surprised himself in episode 1 and became the defacto leader, then he was blindsided in episode 2. In episode 3, he's narrator: The reward challenge was a nightmare from the beginning! Their guys are huge! Chris is like the size of 3 of me, Michaela,otoh, is like an amazon woman!

I took that as he was in awe of Michaela! I predict down the road he, Adam, and Michaela will indeed be working together? His confessionals are stable from last week, I see Zeke as SAFE.

Jay: Jay is also stable from last week. He seems to be the quintessential Millennial and has the confessional: The definition of a Millennial would be like a young person ready to go out and conquer the world. And, I appreciate that cause I am a dreamer. Gen X is like Ok, HS, college, 9 to 5, get a life....I don’t want that.

It will be interesting to see how he mixes with them next week. We also saw that he was indeed surprised to see that Paul had been voted out. Seems he may not know GenX'rs like he appears to. As someone that went to the "summit" and met some of the Gen'X'rs, he has a connection to them, but he's a strong male, he's at SLIGHT RISK.

There were 7 people that flew under the radar this week. That's ALOT! Figgy and Taylor. The couple in the game. Both went from 2 confessionals last week, to 0 this week, then we see them both with confessionals in the preview promo. I saw them both side by side during the RC, praying...Taylor is a strong male that could be targeted if he gets on the wrong side of the numbers. Taylor is AT RISK. Figgy, as a female, I think will be at SLIGHT RISK. I saw their confessionals in the preview promo as foreshadowing....they will indeed most likely be separated, at some point soon, I think.

Sunday and Cece both fall under the radar this week. Sunday goes from 1 to 0 confessionals. She's one of the ones blindsided this week, with a swap next week she certainly won't be perceived as threatening, but she could do damage to others on her tribe. I see her as at slight risk. Cece had 2 confessionals last week, this week none, but we saw her taking orders from David, and following through on them. She's solidly with David, and owes him her Survivor life. She's still weak in challenges though and could be at RISK if her tribe loses. We also see that she will have a confessional next week, regarding the "idol search party".

Will: Will had one reactionary confessional last week, but was shown with his allies, the cool kids, this week he is shown on the goat hunt, but nothing. He could be at slight risk, if he gets swapped to a tribe without numbers. But he has made some connection with some of them, so I see him as safe for this week. SAFE.

Hannah falls under the radar after 2 confessionals the week before. I see that as a good thing for her. Things have died down since she surprised her allies Zeke and Adam by voting with the cool kids. I see her as non threatening. SAFE

Michelle: She is still one to watch for me. She had no confessionals in the intro, had 1 in ep 1, 2 in ep 2, and then has fallen way under the radar. It will be interesting to see if she has something to say post swap. Any thing can happen with a shuffle, but as a female, I think she won't be as threatening to most. She was shown praying during her sit out time for the RC, and she performed well in the IC. She's playing a good game at this point but with 2 weeks under the radar, could she be setting up for a blindside? Slight RISK

For this week:

SAFE: David, Adam, Jessica, Michaela, Zeke, Will, Hannah

SLIGHT RISK: Chris, Bret, Jay, Sunday, Michelle, Figgy

AT RISK: Ken, Taylor, Bret, Cece

LAST EDITED ON 10-20-16 AT 05:53 PM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | total
David    Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 21
Chris    Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 11
Zeke     Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 11
Adam     Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 10
Ken      Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10
Jessica  Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9
Taylor   Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 9
Figgie   Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 8
Jay      Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7
Bret     Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | 6
Cece     Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Hannah   Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 5
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | 5
Sunday   Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4
Will     Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | 3
Eliminated:
Rachel   Tak     | * | 2 | 2X
Mari     Van     | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul     Tak     | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy     Van     | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece     Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
+ = Winner Quote
 

Well, I was happy to see that the confessionals did lead to the boot this week....hopefully we can keep using them as a tool!

This week David continues to be the star of the season. He had the most confessionals with 4 and his arc continues strong and steady. I can see that he'll already be SAFE next week, just by looking at his counts. He got the first confessional of the episode expressing his possible regret for playing the idol on someone that nobody wants to work with, now he's vulnerable. The scene ended with a wave crashing down, will he be the one that it crashes on?

His second confessional was wrapped around finding the HII again. I thought it was telling as to his character and the way he's playing the game in comparison to Sunday and Cece who SHOULD feel at risk as two weaker girls....they give up and wander away because they are tired, while David outlasts and continues to work, finding the idol, once again. He's got staying power, he is representative of the Gen X generation, work hard, never give up; he symbolizes his generation.

His next confessional: Dave has reservations regarding what Chris wants to do: It sounds like Chris wants to vote out Cece, and I’m extremely nervous about that, he has Zeke and Michelle on his side, so I think I should just go along with the plan and make him believe he can trust me.

Then, he got the last confessional casting doubt as to the forthcoming events in TC:
Chris and I had talked and decided that we would vote with the Millennials to vote out Cece, but I really don’t trust Michelle. She wanted to woo Cece over and target me, once Cece is gone, I would be the weakest person of our tribe. I’m worried that Chris, Zeke, and Michelle could form a voting block and vote me out at tribal and it’s got me thinking whether or not I should give my idol to Cece and vote off Michelle. I play a lot of chess, and the thing about chess is you have to look as many moves ahead as you can....and if it means betraying an alliance or people that trust you, do it....cut to TC

David again shows us that he is a superfan and knows to look beyond the present circumstance, but his judgement was affected by what had occurred at the last TC. I think he realizes that the idol is much more valuable to protect him directly. I think he made a wise choice. Time will tell, but for now, I see him as SAFE.

There were 5 Daws that got 3 confessionals. I find this interesting. Four of the 5 are rapidly being considered as stars of the show, either integral to the story of the season, or as characters being developed. I think that one however is different. Taylor. So, we'll start with him. Taylor does look like the picture of "Millennial" as Jiffy defines it. He embodies it. His first confessional of the season voiced that. Then, he met Figgy. His entire story isn't really his story, but the story of Fig-tails. He's being painted as a love struck kid with nothing more on his mind in the GAME than getting the girl. He went from under the radar last week, to three this week. That's a large spike. His confessionals are still very Figgy-centric: 1. Swap is random, no idea as to what will happen, especially since me and Figgs have this little romance thing going on. My biggest fear right now is getting split up..., 2. Rock on! Figs tails continues! hahaha. I was so stoked because I’ve got the numbers and Figgy, so it could not go ANY better for me!

I feel like the last confessional in particular is misdirection. He's being set up for a fall. We all know when you start to get arrogant, it's over. Taylor is being edited as dumb and his confessionals support it.

His last confessional: 3. Figgs doesn’t want anything to do with me, she’s like stay away from me, stay away. I really think that us being a power couple isn’t any different than two people in an alliance that really trust each other. (see Jessica and Ken.) So, this confessional is a little meatier because his point is meant to be made. We see he's severely disappointed because he cannot stay away from his girl, and he makes the point that he and Figgs are no different than Ken and Jessica. This is foreshadowing. But, we as viewers, see that it really is different, because it's not forced down our throats every minute.....the concealed strong alliance of 2 could be far more successful, if you ask me.

So, Taylor's only confessionals since his very first introductory one have all been "Fig-tail" centric. Now he's feeling very arrogant. We also see that next week he and Figs are coming out. He went from 0 to 3, a sharp spike. Tails is at high RISK.

The other 4 characters with 3 confessionals I consider to be stars of the show. Their arcs are well in gear and they are steady. Let's start with Michaela. She went from 1, a million dollar quote, to 3. She's been steady for weeks, she had a spike at 4 in the second episode, settling back down to steady. She got a spike this week because she was a star of the show. She was a star at the tribe division....I open up my buff and I see green, man, I was pissed. You know you gonna send us to an empty beach where you gotta make a shelter and we don’t have any food. I just wanted to flip him off right there but I didn’t. She gives the explanation as to the sour face at swap. She's a character alright! She was a star back at camp when she started the fire: The fire got to a point where Jay gave up. I was exhausted but fire is necessary for our life in the game, so I started trying. Deeper down there is this theme in my life that sometimes when I get to a point where I have given it all that I have and I am almost to the point of giving up, and push a little further, and things pop. And, like (hear nice soft dramatic music development), like working at things, working to put my own self through college, working to pay off my own loans, like I WORK!
She continues after we hear a few comments from Bret that paints her in a very positive light....hero, she saved us, emotional for her. I’m normally not a person that cries, but sometimes you just need something so bad. Sometimes when you have no other choice but to get something done and it happens, it’s just letting me know that the life I’m trying to get by winning this thing, is worth it. I do want it badly for my family. There’s nobody in my family that’s been able to have success and keep it. Everybody’s got some type of problem. I just want to prove that you can have success and you can have like your family, TOGETHER. They praise her as a hero, etc...I do look at this as a re-affirmation of her million dollar quote.

Later, we also saw that Michaela was a STAR at the challenge as well. She's gaining confidence, she's willing to do what it takes to get there. She's clearly a star of the show but is she a winner? I have some question whether she had a journey quote or winner quote? Soft music played for emphasis on her final confessional at the scene of the camp fire events! It is clear, however, that she is a star of the show, and embodies what SEG loves in regard to a person doing whatever it is they have to do to win! She's a winner whether she wins the game or not. She's SAFE.

Chris is another star of the show. He's been blindsided so many times, it's hard to count. He's gone from the bottom of the heap at camp Gen X, to finding a bond with someone that he can trust, someone that comes from his neck of the woods. He's throwing in with his new friend, Zeke, and they need each other. Chris' confessionals:
1. Zeke is an Oklahoma boy, just like me, he grew up in Ok., probably an hour and a half from where I grew up...A big sooner fan and of course I played on the last national championship so we had that connection immediately. I am feeling better on this new tribe than I did on Gen X because here I have a tad bit more control over my decisions and how I am going to play the game. 2. Huge night tonight....this is a crucial decision and quite honestly, I’ve made a different decision...Cece and Dave backstabbed me and one of them has to go today. Dave bit me in the butt, but he has at least some numbers that will survive this tribe situation that we are in ....I have to have a big alliance that will protect me in a merge, so we’re gonna vote Cece off tonight. and, 3. If we can come together we can benefit each other, now whether Dave will stay to his word or not, I don’t know, I’m trusting a guy that’s burnt me twice. Then, we see the fire flame up!

Chris has given us great insight to his vantage point. He's gone from bottom to top, and he's driving the bus with his new found friend, Zeke. He handled Dave extremely well, I thought and his judgement is on point. A big alliance with Dave in it could help him come merge time. And, if he makes it past merge events, he could be a real challenge whore that could make it far. Chris is SAFE.

Chris' new friend, Zeke, is also a star of the show and like Chris, he's gone from the bottom to the top in this episode. He tells us: This is like the disaster scenario, I’m on the one tribe where the millennials are not in the numbers and I am with Michelle, the one person from my tribe that I have 0 trust in, and we’re outnumbered and we are in a bad spot. This is reaction from the swap and his dire straights. Next, he describes his utter elation at meeting one of his childhood heroes, Chris: Chris played for my team, the Univ. of Ok., not only did he play for the Sooners, he was on the 2000 national championship team he’s one of my childhood heroes. That national championship was one of the biggest events of my childhood! Who do I want to work with? I want to work with the big ginger haired football player who said: "Buddy, don’t worry, things are not what they seem, you are not on the bottom, and I want to work with you!", It’s like the heaven’s opened, a light shined down, and finally I catch a break in this game! True elation because he thought he's hit rock bottom and now has hope that he can swing to the top....he shared the elation with Chris, they have parallel stories. Then, finally: I’m frustrated because Cece and David are atrocious in challenges and they don’t even seem to care, see Cece....because they think they have the numbers. Then see David. But, thankfully, Chris is trying to make a move and thankfully a Gen X’r goes home regardless. This underlined what he asked Chris in the middle of the challenge, "Is he trying to throw this?", regarding David's performance in the challenge!

I see Zeke finding a partner in this game, a partner, as Taylor identified earlier, one that could be just as dangerous as a power couple! I say one that could be even more dangerous than a power couple! Zeke is SAFE.

Ken is another star of the show and his arc has been steadily building up to this point. Things are looking better for Ken for now. He's gotten back with Jessica, Jess says that she has a legacy and that she’s willing to share it with me and that means alot. I’m giving Jess my full trust again. He's been identified indirectly by Tails who noted a strong alliance of two could be just as powerful as a "power couple", and now he's narrating events: Coming back to camp it was weird. The Millennials definitely bring some high energy, some goofy energy. Hopefully, Jess and I will be more subtle and more grounded with the way we do things. Then he tells us about his new friend, Adam is like the nicest kid ever, I feel like I hit the jack pot, he’s super positive, he’s respectful, he’s polite and there’s a little bit of a crack in the Millennials. So, hopefully me and Jess got Adam. Hear him tell Adam: "I got your back, you seem cool." So, Ken's story is very similar to Zeke's. While he's on the bottom of the numbers at this point, he's making serious inroads with Adam, and we know that Adam is not too keen on Fig-tails. I see Ken as SAFE, for now! Especially if he hooks up with the rising star of the season, Adam!

Next, there were 5 daws with 2 confessionals. We'll look at Adam first. He's one of the one's to watch, he could win this game. He's gone from top to bottom, then found the HII last week, when things started taking a turn up. Now, he's switched to a tribe of 5 with the majority of the numbers. But, he tells us: Getting swapped into a new tribe with only Taylor and Figgy from my original tribe, it’s my worst night mare. Figgy is very controlling, she’s lies constantly and she’s going to go through this charade as to how they are not a couple. I guarentee it. (See Taylor chopping a coconut). I don’t know how long that will last because Taylor is ready to start cannoodling again. For me? That’s a worthless partnership!. Clearly, with Adam telling us like it is, this is serious foreshadowing, imo. I see him jumping ship on Fig-tails, lickety-split, or when they lose a challenge. So, with Ken-doll on his tribe, the question is, will they lose before a merge?

Adam's second confessional: Ken and Jessica they seem to have a tight bond, and I know that Taylor and Figgy won’t turn on each other, so I have pairs on both sides of me. So, I’m the guy in the middle. I’m the guy they need to come to, to work with, I’m the guy in the middle. I get to decide which side moves forward. Yes, he is, and I'd say his assessment is spot on, and he is a super fan. He knows where he stands. But, from his first confessional, my money is on Ken and Jessica moving forward. For now, he's SAFE.

Jay had 2 confessionals. His first tells us his elation regarding his new tribe. I also feel that Jay is the voice of the Millennial theme, what SEG perceives Millennials to be. He notes, For the millennials most people just say we are just dreamers, but the truth is most of us are relentless. The gen’x’rs say we work hard and do things the right way. The people that I got right now, I got Bret and Sunday, sometimes they can’t figure things out and they just sit back and wait for you to say something...But, even if I have to build a new shelter, I’m happy, because we got 4 millennials, 2 gen Xr’s. See you later Gen Xrs, because even if I lose a challenge, you are outta here, boom... Then, So, we wake up this morning and we don’t have a fire yet, I’m starving and I’m thirsty. I’m trying to use this flint over and over, and it just does not work for me, and I don’t understand, why? And, I’m like losing all hope, and I’m like forget this! This sets the scene for Michaela's starring role, and this was simple narration of events. I see him in a good position on his tribe and he's very encouraging to Michaela, as well as a team player in challenges. He's SAFE.

Bret also had 2 confessionals. He's gone from 0, to 1, to 2. His arc is getting under way, I would say. If Adam is the embodiment of a millennial, then Bret is an embodiment of a Gen X'r. He tells us about Gen X'rs, as Jay told us about Millennials. Sunday and I we are in a tough spot but we are Gen X’rs and we have the drive to get by and not to quit. So, I need to prove to them that I am worth keeping around because right now it’s all about surviving this game. Then, he narrates how he saw the fire starting events, as did Jay....Michaela tried, and like the next thing you know all these sparks were coming out, and BOOM, the whole thing ignited in fire and we were psyched, and I was psyched for her! (They congratulate her and you see her turn her back and cry!) Bret continues: It really brought us back to life and she saved us today! It was really kind of emotional for her!

His arc is starting to take off, he's on a tribe in the minority, and so far he's been edited as an insignificant character that hasn't seen much character development. I'd say that Bret is at RISK.

Michelle has gone from the top of the heap, to the bottom of the heap. She was in a majority of a tribe and now she is in a minority of a tribe with a fellow tribe mate that has "0 trust in" her. Her confessionals: My whole game was turned upside down. I happen to be on the only tribe with the minority, just me and Zeke and 3 Gen X’rs....I’m a little worried if we have a challenge that it will be me and Zeke. I feel that the alliance may be stacked against me so I am definitely scared. Later, David and Chris come to us and say you are safe tonight, but how do you trust it? There is a ??? possibility that he’s not telling the truth. I’m not gonna sit back and let other people decide my fate because that’s not how I’m used to doing things, see a bat, fly away. As Cece joins Michelle in the hammock...she later concludes, I tried to talk strategy with her, and I can’t get anywhere. So all I can do now is hope that David and Chris are telling me the truth and hope for the best. So, we saw that despite what she was told, she had to target David, which only serves to make David want to get rid of her! So, we know that Cece has gone, and now David feels like the weakest link and he doesn't know if he can fully trust Chris and Zeke, BUT, he has an idol. Either way, I say that David is gunning for Michelle, and Zeke doesn't trust Michelle. Chris and David took a leap of faith with Zeke, will he take one with them and vote out Michelle? He could. She's at high RISK.

Figgy goes from UTR to one confessional, and it's Tails-centric: Taylor thinks because we have the numbers we can be out and open, but sorry, Taylor. Being with these new people, that’s going to put a target on our back, it’s not smart. Then we see Taylor say to Figgy: "Does it really matter?" At least Figgy assesses the situation correctly, at this point. We see next week she renegs. Adam told us he hates Figgy, she's a liar. So, Figgy is AT RISK.

Jessica had one confessional about telling Ken about the legacy advantage, hoping that he will trust her. Smart move, it did buy good will, and now you are in a minority with Ken. Being in a minority and the weaker link in that minority, you would think that Jess would be in trouble, but frankly, I see Fig-tails in more trouble than she is. She's made a positive move, where the Fig-tails are just love struck. I see Jess in slight risk.

Hannah, Sunday, and Will are all stable with NO confessionals. Of the three, Hannah and Will are safe, as they are in a majority alliance. BUT, we see that Hannah has a medical emergency next week, so she could go the way of Lucy....no confessionals until her boot episode. Hannah: at slight risk. Will: Safe. Sunday, in the minority on that tribe with Bret, she's the weakest link, she's at RISK.

From confessionals I get the following results:

SAFE: David, Michaela, Chris, Zeke, Adam, Jay, Ken, Will

SLIGHT RISK: Jessica, Hannah

AT RISK: Figgy,, Sunday, Bret

I really felt after watching the episode that out of all the characters at risk, it was Taylor that stood out to me with his arrogance and his confessional spike. This would be a total blindside, as he's a strong male, in a tribe with supposed numbers. The second one at great risk, imo, was Michelle. She went from UTR to 2 confessionals, and we know that she's alienated David, and he isn't going anywhere. For these reasons, I am placing them at high risk.

High RISK: Taylor, Michelle