LAST EDITED ON 11-26-16 AT 09:25 PM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10a| total
David    Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |  3 | 31
Adam     Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 |  2 | 24
Jay      Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 3 | 7 |  2 | 24
Zeke     Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |  3 | 23
Chris    Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 2 |  2 | 20X
Hannah   Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |  2 | 15
Ken      Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | * | * |  * | 12
Bret     Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 3 | 1 |  1 | 13
Jessica  Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * |  2 | 13
Sunday   Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 3 |  1 | 9
Will     Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 1 |  1 | 8
Eliminated:
Rachel   Tak     | * | 2 | 2X
Mari     Van     | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul     Tak     | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy     Van     | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece     Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie   Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 2 | 8X
Taylor   Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21X
+ = Winner Quote
 

WOW, what a season this is turning out to be! Have to say that I have been very pleasantly surprised, and I have to agree with Jims though, it's nice that they are getting back to playing the game now that Taylor is gone. He sucked a lot of airtime away, like a good shield does. Now that he's gone, everyone is looking at new targets! I am going to split the two episodes that were back to back as 10a and 10b. I don't need to make a risk assessment after the 10a confessionals.

I do want to add that earlier in the season we had a boot that the confessionals pointed to, but the story did not, and then this week we have a story that pointed to the boot but NOT the confessionals. It goes to show you that all things need to be considered! Well done, EPMB, with the editing!

In the first part of the double header Zeke and David take the top spot. We can see that their story arcs are gaining ground, they both jump from one confessional last week to 3 this week. They are becoming more integral to the CURRENT events, where as last week it was all about Taylor, Adam, and Jay.

Zele's first confessional follows Adam's reaction to Taylor's boot and the TC events, Jay's reaction to the TC, Chris' new plan now that Taylor is out, and Will's proclamation that he's off of Jay's sinking ship and he's now with the life raft, Zeke. Now Zeke takes charge: I need to have the most power in the game and everything is about building relationships and there is no better way then building trust by revealing who has the idol. And, on top of that, a person with a hidden immunity idol has a major advantage in this game, (see Adam, see David), but if everybody knows that they have it, see Jay, that advantage decreases significantly. We want to get Jay to think he’s the next one to go so he plays his idol, but in actuality, Chris wants to get Jess, you know we’ve had these 2 nice votes with everyone voting together but now it’s time to turn on each other. The opening shots have been fired and the war is about to get bloody. Zeke is preparing to take control, as he prepares for battle. He's placed himself nicely between sides...

Confessional 2: Chris wants to go after Jess, and David wants to go after Chris. This is what I am deeming the civil war. I am tight with Chris, but if this war is starting I want to have the power and control so now it’s time to pit the gen X’rs against each other! His plan is exposed, to pit Chris' trio vs. David's trio, and to create suspense as to which side he'll align with!

He got the last confessional of the episode before TC, because wherever he decides to go will determine which side prevails...Right now I have what I‘ve always wanted to have, which are options, right? My little clique of nerdy millennials can work with Chris, my Okie buddy, or I can work with David and make this huge move, but it’s hard for me because I trust both of these guys. So, to win this game you have to know where you are going and you have to know who you need to get there. So, this next vote is about amassing the soldiers I need to march my army down the field. See the Survivors marching to tc.

He has a plan, I see Zeke as the one that is going on the offensive, while clearly, Chris thought it was he that was going on the offensive. Surprise! I also do see Zeke as a strategist who had planned for this scenario a few moves back...

David also got a bump up from 1 to 3 confessionals this week, his arc is rising, parallel to Zeke's. First confessional: I’m on a journey and it’s about coming out of this game a better person than when I came in, as my whole life I have had a fear of death, but, it’s morphed into a fear of life, and it’s why I am here. I am here to start taking control of my life and I think if any experience can give me that power, it’s the game of Survivor. Ken and I had some alone time and he really gives me a sense of confidence within myself and I am realizing just in life and in this game, you have to take control of my own destiny. But, timing is everything in the game of Survivor. But, the threesome of Chris, Bret, and Sunday is too strong. I’m uncomfortable with how deep in this game they have made it. It’s time for us to make a big move...

This confessional plus the airtime we see of David in the show raises a very big red flag for me this week. We've always suspected it, but this really underlines it. David is the "journey player'. He is the one that is on a personal mission, and by playing the game he learns the lessons that he needs that will help him in his real life. He started the game afraid of everything, in a very neurotic way. But, he made friends with another quirky guy, Ken, and they've managed to survive. But, we saw him at the RC, wanting to spare everyone with his performance by volunteering to sit out, but with the encouragement of all his fellow players, he stays.

Again, after the reward, David is fragile and Ken sees it. He encourages him and reminds him just how far he's come. I believe that Ken is the foundation that David needed in this game and at this point I see Ken outlasting David. David even starts his first confessional with "I'm on a journey". Clearly, his neurosis has paralyzed him in his life, and this game is indeed helping him. We see how he's calmed down, somewhat, he's even performing much better in the challenges. In fact he WINS the IC! Which leads to his second confessional:

This IN can only be the beginning, it can’t be the end. It’s a risk to put your foot down, but if I have anything to say about it, Chris will go home.

The IN represents the confidence he's attained through playing this game, it's symbolic of his journey. It cannot be the beginning because he has to maintain this new found confidence to navigate the rest of his life, to really start living, and to FINISH living his life to the fullest. So, he's taking his confidence in the game and it's fueling him to decide to make a move, now, to target Chris. (Just as Zeke is starting his initiative to his offense.)

HIs final confessional is about getting validation for his plan: Chris is targeting Jess, he’s been targeting Jess since the beginning of the game, Jess is not safe as long as Chris is in this game.

He's set.

Adam, Jay, Chris, Hanna, and Jessica all had 2 confessionals. Adam is stable with 2 confessionals. He got the first reactionary confessional of the episode. He commented on how Jay and Taylor dragged his name through the mud, everyone knows about his advantage, and he wants to get Jay out so bad he can taste blood! Jay and Adam are really tied to each other now in the classic Survivor rivalry. So, the question is, when one is gone will the other follow immediately? Often, when they live to get one person out in particular, as soon as the person goes, then they follow. (ex. Chris goes, then Jessica goes immediately after. There are dozens of examples through the years...)

Adam's next confessional was about the reward and what getting a letter from home meant to him. It ended like this: Everyday that I stay here that I make it further in the game that I get closer to the end is another big win for me...just that little piece. It’s enough to keep me going, it’s enough to get me through these last 2 weeks of the game.

This was a very positive confessional for me, he's now got what he needs to fuel him through the last 2 weeks of the game. But, can Adam continue to stay out of the cross hairs?

Jay had 2 confessionals, settling down nicely after being at the center of the drama first with Michaela, then Michelle, and next with Taylor. HIs first confessional was about how Taylor almost took him down with him, but the good thing is that he didn't play his idol so now no one thinks he has it. Which was promptly followed by Will telling Zeke, who told David and Hanna, who told Chris, Ken, Jess, who told Sunday/Bret. LOL. HIs last confessional was in regard to not winning the IC, going to TC, but knew if he felt in his gut that he was the target, he could still play his idol. Jay settled down very nicely and we can see that there are far bigger fish to fry now!

Chris had 2 confessionals. He went on the offensive as well and he targeted Jess, because 90% strategy and 10% he owes her. Well, we all saw where his plan led

Hanna got 2 confessionals, the same as last week, and hers were about her gaining confidence and starting to play this game. Her first one was about crushing on Ken....n Survivor you gotta find a way to connect with someone that’s drastically diff’t from you, and Ken, look at him! and I do flirt with ken, you look at him, ken wouldn’t have any crush on me, but maybe just maybe, yeah, I could see that. I have to think this little scene with Ken on the beach may have preceded her decision later to side with David/Ken instead of Zeke, perhaps?

Her second confessional was in regard to the elation she felt on winning reward but she still felt guilty about those left at camp...(Ken was at camp ). Regardless, she's empathetic and sensitive to others, and in Survivor that's a good thing!

Jessica had 2 confessionals after 2 weeks of flying under the radar! Clearly, her final story arc is underway. Her first confessional was about David wanting to vote out Chris, which she was thrilled about cause he's her arch nemesis, he needs to go! Then, when she is told that it's she that Chris is going after: I have been told point blank that Chris is voting me, and that’s a scary feeling because I feel he’s got it out for me. He’s been gunning for me since the decision to vote Paul out, and if I get voted out I have to give away the legacy advantage but that is not happening cause I am a fighter. The best thing for me is to have Chris go home. Tonight I have to trust an enormous amount of people.

Jessica did what she had to do to firm up her relationship with the ones in her alliance, but had to take a leap of faith. Which sets her up for the big fall that is coming her way in the next half of the double header!

Bret, Sunday, and Will all had one confessional. Bret, the eternal reward winner had a confessional about the reward, it was like going out for pizza and beer with his buddies back home but it was really great because he got to bond with Chris' new BFF, Zeke.

Sunday's confessional was that Chris and Bret are ready to vote out Jessica, that's exactly what she wants, because she knows she's putting something together to get her out of the game. Sunday's paranoia is not founded in that we have never once seen Jessica mention targeting Sunday first. Regardless, when she planted the Jessica seed, it took, and leads to Chris' demise.

Will's lone confessional was about jumping off the sinking ship, Jay, and moving to the life raft, Zeke. Telling him about Jay's idol is a way to build trust. Will is a flipper. First he was straddling Mari's group and Jay's group, then he was with Jay, now he's jumping to Zeke, who's next?

Ken had 0 confessionals, which is stable from the last 3 weeks. But, Ken is still seen a lot. He had a nice bit of compassion and building up of his comrade, David. He also, very astutely questioned Zeke and Chris' relationship. They are always going off together, noting how close they are. So, Ken is perceptive.

Episode 10b

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10a| 10b| total
David    Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |  3 |  4 | 35
Zeke     Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |  3 |  6 | 29
Adam     Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 |  2 |  2 | 26
Jay      Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 3 | 7 |  2 |  2 | 26
Hannah   Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |  2 |  3 | 18
Bret     Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 3 | 1 |  1 |  2 | 15
Jessica  Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * |  2 |  2 | 15X
Ken      Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | * | * |  * |  1 | 13
Sunday   Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 3 |  1 |  1 | 10
Will     Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 1 |  1 |  * | 8
Eliminated:
Rachel   Tak     | * | 2 | 2X
Mari     Van     | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul     Tak     | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy     Van     | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece     Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie   Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 2 | 8X
Taylor   Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21X
Chris    Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 2 |  2 | 20X
Jessica  Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * |  2 |  2 | 15X
+ = Winner Quote
 

Zeke makes the biggest jump up in confessionals from 3 to 6! He prepared for battle last week, his offensive has begun. Now it's time to draw the lines, and take aim at the targets. His first confessional explained how TC went as planned, that Chris had to go because he controlled Bret and Sunday. His plan has been to make a move against David and company, and in order to do that he needs 6. Bret and Sunday are integral to that six. But, most of all he's happy he got to them before David did!

Next, he tells us his plan: I'm the doughy little gay guy, people didn't think I could hack it out here, today I am a warrior and I need to make a move against David. Zeke replaces his "doughy little gay guy hat with his warrier hat", but he's been very strategic and diplomatic this entire game.

Next, he compares he and David, which interestingly follows a confessional by David that does the same thing! David and I are very similar people. I understand that I am threatening, David understands that I am threatening, I think people see it. But, I think David is more of a threat to win than I am. This is the war that everyone has been alluding to and now it’s a scramble to assemble the troops.

What is interesting in this confessional is that he says "the war that everyone has been alluding to. So, everyone must be talking about what is coming down the road...

HIs rationale to his "recruits" then is that David is more of a threat to win than he is...

The third confessional was at the reward when he commented that he doesn't really like to drink beer but his goal was to cultivate a relationship with Bret. At the end of the reward he said this: I owe a lot to Bret’s generation. I would not have been able to come out at 15 were there not pioneers that paved the way. And, I think it really reflects this Gen X-Millennial divide, right? He spent time in the military during the “don’t ask don’t tell” era where he couldn’t have been in the military had he told people he was gay. And, I am excited that now Bret is getting to reap the rewards of what he has sowed. Bret and I, we have the rainbow connection and Bret, Sunday and I are like David is the biggest threat and I am delighted because now I have united them against a common enemy.

Zeke is an awesome narrator and story teller. His plan is unfolding better than he may have thought it would. He's bonding very much with Bret and his mission to recruit them is complete.

His final confessional is about his first bump in the road, Hanna. I have attempted to cultivate Hanna as a very close ally, but as we are talking it becomes very apparent to me that Hanna does not have my best interests at heart. I realized that I am no longer going to be working with Hanna. It was going to be David, but David has an idol and if he plays it we’re screwed. If Hanna wants to become one of Davids members than she becomes my enemy, so I have no problem voting her out then. (See Zeke telling Will that Hanna is in Davids pocket.) We’ve come to the day when it’s going to be either Dave’s army or my army, so I am trusting Bret and Sunday, Jay and Will. We have 5 votes together which is half, which means at worst we tie.

Zeke spells it out, he's willing to take it to the tie. Lines are clearly drawn. Zeke and David are very similar indeed, and David told us that long ago. They are similar in that they view the game similarly and they are very diplomatic and sensitive to others. Interesting that they agree on the biggest threat, Chris, they both recognized and agreed that being in charge of Bret and Sunday gave him too much power in the game. And, they both wanted Bret and Sunday. But, David is very tied to Ken and Jessica, but how tied is Zeke to Hanna and Adam, or to Jay and Will? We saw that Will is now thrown in with his life raft, Zeke, but what does Jay really think of Zeke? Jay is with Sunday and Bret, but I question whether he would be loyal to them.

One thing I note about the millennials is that they are not really loyal to each other but they are loyal only to themselves....seemingly...?

As someone that has watched this game from day one, I feel that Zeke and David have drawn the lines too early. But, I suppose you could counter that thought with Mike winning The Collared Season? But, by taking control of both sides and targeting each other, they are now making themselves the biggest targets in the game. So, I think this move by both of them, will enable someone more under the radar to win. (Have to recall that in a season full of alphas, the beta will win?) Or, at least someone with a lot more patience and self control?

Zeke has the largest spike, his offensive is in play, he's at RISK!

David had the next highest amount of confessionals going from three last week to four this week. Note, it's a much less severe jump than Zeke's. His first gives us his boot order: I want to make Jay the next vote but right now the person winning this game is Zeke, but I want to get rid of him in 3 votes. I want to get rid of Jay, then Will, then Zeke. He sees that Zeke is the biggest threat to win the game. But, his approach is far more subtle than Zeke's.

Next, as Zeke did, he talks about how they are more alike. His confessional preceded Zeke's similar confessional: The thing about Zeke and I, I feel like we are chess players in this game and I feel like I can read Zeke’s mind. I feel like we are having much the same thoughts, and I hope people see Zeke as playing harder than I am. So, I don’t think it will be a hard sell when it comes time to vote him out.

They really are thinking along the same lines! Next comes the anxiety after Hanna tells him that Zeke knows that David is gunning for him...I may have deleted this confessional, or perhaps he only had 3 confessionals? I will wait to Michel's editing thread comes out to re-check...whoops!

His last confessional is the final confessional before they go to TC, and David suspects that Zeke is coming for him...Tonight is huge if it comes down to 5 votes, and it’s really, but there is no really anymore. But, if we really do have 5 votes against Zeke it will be a tie and then we will have to revote and it would require somebody flipping. The question is who would flip? My people? Their people? I’m not even sure that it will be 5/5 so I ‘m really schizophrenic about what am I gonna do with my idol. I hope I play the idol for the right person. This is really the scariest part of the game for me thus far.

I can only imagine the anxiety that David had going into the TC, during it, and then playing his idol for the wrong person. But, David did not have the spike in confessionals that Zeke did, so I have to wonder, will David outlast Zeke now? The story points to him, however. David is AT RISK.

Hanna had 3 confessionals. Her first one was interesting since we first heard David talk about how much alike he and Zeke were, but Zeke was the biggest threat, and then we got the confessional about how Zeke also thinks he's very similar to David, but David is the biggest threat, then we have this from Hanna: I want both David and Zeke to feel like I am in their corner, and they are both two very threatening players. I would love to work with David. We are both very neurotic people, but it’s been a month with working with Zeke, side by side. So, I don’t know who I would choose, either Zeke or David?

Hanna is the girl in the middle and at this point she's conflicted but recognizes that she will have to choose.

She tells us her decision in her second confessional: So the winners get back; Zeke, Bret, Sunday and David, and I immediately grab David. I’m playing between Zeke and David, but I’m going with my gut and my decision is to go after Zeke. Because Zeke he’s condescending and he can be a flip flopper...

I think that all the millennials can be flip floppers. Jay, Will, Adam, all of them, now Hanna is herself a flip flopper. I can't help but wonder if Ken wooed her over to their side?

Then, Hanna's last confessional: My OCD is going crazy right now. It’s like my body can’t handle it. I feel like David should play his idol tonight for me because if the vote changes at all it’s going to be against me.

She's at least perceptive. But, her inability to convince David cost Jessica the game perhaps? But, so well played by Bret, Sunday, and Zeke, preying upon David's insecurities. They really played him, I thought. Hanna is a target now, she's betrayed Zeke and he is out to get her too. Hanna is at RISK.

Adam, Jay, Bret, and Jessica all had 2 confessionals. Adam's first confessional was after the RC, when he was tempted to use his advantage, especially since David didn't earn it, but will save it for a rainy day. SEG keeps choosing to hit us over the head with this advantage that Adam has, so, with the preview of the family reward next week, I predict this is indeed foreshadowing that he will finally use it, or perhaps he will give it away, but he most likely will do something with it.

Next confessional was expressing doubt about Hanna, she's a nervous girl, he's let her run the show a bit and now he doesn't know...this casts doubt on whether he'll vote with her or not. Adam is rock solid with 2 confessionals for the past 3 episodes. He could be a "surprise" boot, as Chris was, because we see it's the family reward next week...it could paint a target on his back if he uses the advantage, or, he could be solid as his confessionals suggest, and be safe. I will put Adam at SLIGHT RISK because of the family visit and threat to use the advantage.

Jay had the first confessional of the show and he is also solid with 2 confessionals, same as he had last week. His first confessional was about how he thought he might have to play his HII at the last TC, but his name didn't come up, and he took a million dollar gamble and kept it, his name was never mentioned. His last confessional was about winning the IC, he's still got his HII, and he'll keep it.

Jay is SAFE for next week!

Bret had 2 confessionals, up one from last week. His arc is rising. His first one was about unbeknownst to David, he's signed on with Zeke, David can't be trusted so he needs to go. The next confessional was at the reward when Bret comments on being gay at a time when it was not okay to announce it. He admires how Zeke is and looks forward to one day living openly as the Millennials do....You know I‘ve been a big fan of survivor and it’s just a part of my life, and as I get older, you start to learn who you really are and you don’t care what people think. I want to get closer to Zeke, because I wanna work with Zeke, cause I like him as a person. I didn’t grow up in a time when it was normal to talk about being gay and the millennials do not care. Zeke finds comfort in being himself and I think that’s great! I’m hoping as my life goes on that I can be that way.

I really admired this admission and the way they talked about it, and the regard that they each had for each other. I have found Bret to be a very endearing character! But, I think we all saw his police interrogation side come up in TC, boy he got rough with David, I thought. No more Mr. Nice guy...

Bret's arc is rising, but right now he is out of the cross hairs himself. I will place Bret at Slight Risk.

Poor Jessica had 2 confessionals in her boot episode. Solid, same amount as last week. A surprise boot.

Ken and Sunday both had 1 confessional. Ken comes out from being totally under the radar for the last 4 episodes! His confessional: I want to go out with David, I made a promise to the man, so I want to go out swinging and playing with David.

I can't help wonder if Ken will go before David? We know that he's the bigger threat challenge wise, (well they both won one IC so?), so if he doesn't win immunity, he could be next. We also know that he has the legacy advantage. He'll at least get a confessional regarding that. With a one spike rise after 4 weeks of no confessionals, I will put Ken at risk.

Sunday had 1 confessional, as she did last week. Her arc is underway. Her only confessional was that it was not only her dream to get on Survivor but to take a helicopter ride as well, this is one of the most favorite days in her life.

Sunday is safe for this week. She is not a big threat out there at this point.

Will had 0 confessionals which is down from last episode. He's flip flopper too. He's a soldier but is he a loyal soldier? We see that he teases David next week that he wants to start playing hard??? If he tries to make a big move it could back fire on him. He's at SLIGHT RISK.

SAFE: Jay, Sunday
SLIGHT RISK: Adam, Bret, Will
AT RISK: Zeke, David, Hanna, Ken