I was dead on early on about Jenn. She was in deed overnarrating to a early merge boot.

After the second show Rodney was the frontrunner. Then his negative edit the next show took all of that away. I had even had Tyler as a top contender but the excuse is his lack of backstory and not enough screentime consistently. But.....

His confessionals is very game-related, he's also shown constantly being very stalkerish lurking around. He's also shown to have a keen eye based on thinking Dan flipped back. I am wondering if he needs Carolyn to leave to advance his game? He is all game narrative and nothing else.

Carolyn almost went two straight without a confessional but she got one late about possibly playing her idol. But this episode showed she was smarter than people thought. Her move at the auction was true to the character she's been from day 1. She's playing the game hard. But I don't know if I can keep defending her. She is my favorite but she's slipping. Word to Survivor editors, only a few players per season can be fan favorites. If you intend to showcase these players early be consistent with the story. Carolyn may be a victim of the editing this year where they thought she would be a villain/univerally unlikable and Shirin the underdog. But Carolyn is not the villain/univerally unlikable. And thats how you get people that love/hate someone like Shirin. I had Carolyn making final five, now I think she may be the next to go.

Dan is a finalist, no question. No one is wasting a vote on him now. And the very first show gave us this indication. And if you look closer the person who suddenly had a gradual spike in the edit since the merge started without being in complete overkill is Dan, like Jaclyn last year.

Mike is still the winner but its obvious his path is cluttered. Tyler is someone who can win these challenges and if Mike is in the finals with him, it will take Shirin being on the jury to help Mike win. Tyler is also Mike's only threat in the remaining challenges. So Tyler or Shirin has to go before the final three.

Shirin....sigh. Her edit is in high gear right now, and usually that is not a good sign for her chances of making the finals. We don't usually see someone who start to jump up dramatically after the swap sitting at the end. Last year was Jon and later Reed. Cagayan didn't give anyone a boost but the winner who already had a strong edit. Caramoan spiked up Andrea, who went out seventh. Phillipines spiked up Abi-Maria who went out fifth. When her edit slows down, it will be when she's done.

8-Carolyn
7-Will
6-Shirin
5-Rodney
4-Sierra
3-Dan
2-Tyler
1-Mike

or

8-Tyler
7-Will
6-Shirin or Carolyn
5-Carolyn or Shirin
4-Rodney
3-Sierra
2-Dan
1-Mike