After this episode(s)

Nagarote
This tribe probably loses again based on the quality and I'm not sure who is going.

Kelly has been too quiet until the fourth episode(which is not the time to start getting screentime). If Jon could not win when his edit gets big in the fifth show, I don't think Kelly can either in the fourth. She may go further into the merge which i didn't think could happen but she could also be out next week.

Shirin is obviously number 1 target to go next but will she go? I think its possible but the final pre-merge boot is usually someone irrelevant or more memorable. Dan-memorable, Alexis-irrelevant, Laura B-memorable, Julie-irrelevant, Katie-irrelevant. Shirin has been neither. Well she is memorable in a way but we're not getting her perspective. I see Shirin a juror.

Carolyn is the one to watch out for this next one. She is a Dale/Laura B. A major character and she may be being set up to get blindsided. Otherwise she has what Dan has. Memorability that can get her out before the merge or take her far.

Hali is getting consideration from others and I don't see it. I just don't see her as memorable or in depth enough to think she has any shot at winning. She's gotten confessionals but she's just not doing it for me. I think some people are using Parvati and past young female winners to compare her to but we all know this is a different survivor now. One reason why so many younger women won in that frame was because the casting got younger but enough with that. She is not beating a guy in the finals. She can get there and be a Woo but she's not winning.

Will is looking good especially after the swap. He got some backstory this past show about his family and that can only be good for him. I think Will is going to go as far as the rest will allow him. He at least gets final six.

Jenn......the dilemma I am having is how does she go early in the merge. She's gonna get blindsided by something is what I think. She has been on too much with the negativity to boot to not be this season's big blindside. The thing is she may have the numbers so something clever has to get her out.

Escameca
Sierra finally emerges this show but like Kelly, its too late. She might be the next to go and if she survives she is probably out early merge.

Dan could exceed my expectations. He's pretty much too outspoken to win and people see that but he can be taken far as a goat since he won't get the votes. Otherwise, I think it will be hard to get him out anyway if he gets to the merge because he's going to make Keith's challenge performances last season look like mincemeat. Then again, maybe that could give him merit to win but a slip-up in the final five and thats it.

Mike after the first show has been getting better and better and this episode really brought it home for him. He is now my pick to win and he may have the numbers as well.

Joe was completely ignored at the swap. Natalie was too last year but he had the blink and miss scenes in the episodes leading up. Joe's been all about being compassionate and a provider. Is that good enough to win especially when the same person, Mike, is talking more strategy and game plan smarts? That does not make Joe look good at all.

Rodney is not winning. That was evident last week and this week even more. But he could be someone to watch in the merge or be sent home next week. He could get to the end but he can get no or little votes. Is he this season's Missy and Kass?

Joaquin...can he win? He's not been portrayed in the best light. He's been portrayed as someone dumb, lazy, and a jock. He's gotten nothing substantial up to this point and even at this swap he was not even in Misch's league. He can't win and is a threat that goes at some point in the merge.

Tyler......Everything about him right. But he has one major flaw-NO BACKSTORY-what do we know about him as a person? He's the next person behind Mike with the best chance at winning but he could be out even before the endgame. He's not Carolyn in terms of editing. If anyone gets to the final four from the original Masaya tribe and does not win, its Carolyn. Tyler is that of a winner or mid-juror. He is similar to Natalie last season but without the aforementioned backstory. Getting a little something each episode.

Final Four
1.Mike
2.Hali
3.Rodney
4.Dan/Carolyn