Excellent stuff, Michel. I suppose it speaks to the power of ingesting years of your Survivor analyses, but I find myself more or less in full agreement with the way you've parsed the latest episode and how it portends for the various remaining players.

I'm more inclined, then, to muse about what I've gleaned not just from the show itself, but the various interviews and assessments outside - and one of the themes I'm picking up is that Mama C is tight with Rodney, whose obnoxious behaviour seemingly but endears him to her further; and I'm trying to recall her making a confessional or comment that casts Motor Mouth in a bad light, and am failing at such (which doesn't mean it hasn't happened!) This leads me to believe that Rodney and Carolyn's side pact is viewed with more solidity than was apparent from her throwaway comment at the time of its cobbling together, and I'm presuming that Will and Tyler view it as a serious option as well.

From Hali's comments as Ponderosa, she seemed convinced that it was Shirin who betrayed the women's pact and allowed scabrous Dan to escape, meaning that she either (and unbelievably) felt Will had been brought back into the fold, or, more likely, that Sierra held true and it was the White Collar who backstabbed her. That's interesting, and speaks to the generally dismal way in which the No Collars have been able to assess the potential for, and table, alliance propositions that others will want/need to uphold. It's also curious in that Hali admitted that she spent a considerable portion of her social and strategic energies on trying to bring Mike into her alliance, at least in the effort to oust Dan—clearly a key component of the former's power arrangement. Why that would strike her as a likely avenue of collaboration escapes me—but it also makes me wonder if Mike, who clearly has a good relationship with Joe, is maybe poised to try and make an accommodation with at least the challenge stud. More on that below...

The inference I've gathered with Carolyn is that she not only actively dislikes Shirin, but also the No Collar ladies, and presumably it was the presence of these three (now two) that most prevented Joe's very capable reward challenge selectivity to bear any fruit—as least for the nonce. It's curious, because so many seasons feature those challenge winners opting to take along their alliance members, and which leads to much fan grumbling about the strategic failure inherent to such maneuvers—you need to work on the swing votes and bottoms of the dominant power alliance; whereas in this case Joe made the correct and difficult choices, but absolutely nothing was revealed to us as to its potential for present or future success—and not only in that there was zero strategy talk between the foursome, but no hints or rumblings of acceptance or anger on the part of Hali and Jenn back at camp; nor any indications if they used the time to try and work on the likes of Sierra and Mike. That such a well-considered reward selection garnered bupkis is the way of advancing any potential strategy leads me to believe that Carolyn's adamancy in refusing to align with Joe's three ladies left the show editors with no discernible storyline value in the revelation of any of its details.

Which all means that I find myself uncertain as to how the remaining episodes are going to play out in a manner that would uphold Probst's pronounced enthusiasm for this season. Statistically, Joe is doomed: he cannot win a run of seven or so immunity challenges (can he?!) and his edit, apart from his winning qualities, just doesn't seem right to me for someone who makes it to the final stretch. However, I wonder if there is a real possibility for Mike, in uncovering the existence of Rodney's four-pact, expediently using Joe as a vote-buffer/voting partner in a effort to pare down that particular opposition, and finding it's a pairing that has some legs? Or perhaps, if Jenn and Shirin become the next two Ponderosa tenants, Carolyn (and, hence, Tyler) will have no aversion to linking arms with Joe so that, together with Rodney, they can oust Mike, Dan, and Sierra and then, fingers-crossed, cut out the blue-eyed boy ere the final immunity challenge. There must be some way for Joe/Jenn/Shirin to all or in part remain for a spell in the game and as a thorn in the side of the Blue Collar Bloc, but it's tricky to try and envisage its unfolding: Joe's too much of a threat, Jenn is seemingly too strategically apathetic, and Shirin is just too damn chatty and odd for them to have any legs unless they've been pared down to one remaining individual to be used for their vote against the Rodney/Carolyn coalition...