This race was between Mike and Jenn but after last night Carolyn is back. She is telling the game story so far on most things like Mike, talking about strong bonds not going to the end, and she basically said in that confessional that Jenn and Hali cannot get to the end together and its a foregone conclusion Joe will not. Even though I mentioned narrators making it the furthest, I think the editing has been somewhat unique with Carolyn with how she's been highlighted in the premiere, swap, and merge episodes.

Dan is looking to be a goat to the end, or get to the last episode if he doesn't fall victim to Rodney in his move to get out Mike. The editing also made it look that way with Rodney getting more screentime than Mike(not during the deliberation though) last night, maybe his boot is building up but when they showed Rodney about to fall and then Mike suddenly falls(maybe thats coincidental) that may have been forshadowing or something close to it.

Mike is still my choice but now I have him in a f3 with either Tyler and Carolyn(Carolyn runner-up) or Jenn and Dan(Jenn runner-up).

Previously on Survivor

- After a surprise switch, Kelly was the only Blue Collar member on the new Nagarote Tribe. Kelly: “I’m scared to death.”
- But, in Blue Collar fashion (we hear Mike telling Kelly that he is giving the challenge to her) her old tribe decided to throw the immunity challenge in order to protect one of their own and keep the Blue Collar numbers strong. Kelly: “I trust the Blue Collar tribe... I can’t wait to get away from these people.”

- With Escameca facing Tribal Council, all eyes were on Joe, the biggest threat in challenges... but the Blue Collars began to notice Rodney and Joaquin’s budding bromance. Mike: “Rodney and Joaquin are a power couple. Power couples have to be split up immediately.”

- At tribal Council, Rodney was shocked when his new ally was voted out. The camera went from Rodney’s bewilderment, Mike’s satisfaction, Tyler’s reflection to Joe’s calmness.

The recap, like most of the story up to now, is all about the Blue Collars. Compared to the elaboration of Kelly’s predicament, Joe’s situation is noted without frills. It is particularly noticeable that the act of throwing the challenge wasn’t presented as a devious scheme or even a game move but like an act of solidarity that is an essential characteristic of Blue Collars. It is said to be in their fashion to protect one of their own. That leads us to the interesting question: Was Jeff implying that it is only a Blue Collar characteristic? The recap paints a more accurate picture of the decision to throw the challenge: Rodney and Mike had been the only ones shown talking about the plan to throw the challenge but all the Blue Collars had agreed.

With the results of this episode, we know that the care wasn’t for Kelly’s personal benefit but because she figured prominently in Mike’s bigger story. Another very interesting aspect of this recap was its focus on the power couples, something that will be a recurring theme in this episode. Jeff set up this episode with the traditional: “...Who will be going home tonight?” However, this episode asked the more important question: Mike is about to lose his closest ally so is he doomed?

The Power Couples

Escameca – Night 16

Tyler congratulated the tribe on their “first juicy blindside.” Joe simply stated: “It’s the game.”

Tyler gave the first confessional: “Tonight, I experienced my first blindside. Myself, Rodney and Joaquin were completely bamboozled by the other guys. So, I’m on the bottom. Despite all the trouble the Blue Collar tribe seems to be having, they sure voted with a lot of symmetry tonight.”

Mike’s interview: “I knew by the look on Rodney’s face that he was pissed. There had to be some damage control done. This is the second time that we had to have one of our members on the outs because they were too close to the situation. Anytime that you blindside somebody, it can cause a big riff in this game so, hopefully, he doesn’t take it too personal.”

At Mike’s suggestion, the two guys took a walk to discuss the situation. Rodney was upset that they went behind his back. Mike explained it from their perspective, that they could see Joaquin reeling Rodney in. Rodney said he was acting in order to find out everything that was going down in the White Collar tribe, that it was a fake alliance to help Blue’s game. Mike told Rodney he had done such a good acting job that he had them fooled. Rodney compared himself to DeNiro.

Rodney’s confessional: “I feel like I got played. I’m really pissed right now. I just seen Mike emerge as a hardcore leader, saying he’s worried about me. Bro, don’t worry about what I’m doing, worry about yourself. You think I was going to get trapped in a bromance? This game is about numbers; you should know better. You go behind my back, thinking I don’t know what I’m doing? Disrespectful. Now, all of a sudden, I have to be Mike’s b*tch until we get to the merge. What else am I going to do now? People that did me wrong today are going to pay for it in the future.”

Unlike Shirin, Rodney didn’t take the elimination of his closest ally lightly. Mike had just recovered from Sierra’s threat to abandon the Blue Collars and immediately a new threat is placed on his road to the end. Rodney clearly identifies him as the leader of the Blue Collar tribe so Mike’s success is tied to the tribe’s unity but how can they be united when they have to deal with such a loose cannon?

Nagarote – Day 17: Tree Mail!

After Carolyn read tree mail, Kelly was the first to say that the message meant it was time to merge. Will said it was only talking about reward while Hali thought it could go either way.

Was this presented this way because of its symbolism: Kelly is right, Will is wrong, Hali is wishy-washy?

Kelly’s confessional: “If today is the merge: Alleluia! I will be smiling from ear to ear.”

That’s the type of ironic confessional that the editors love.
Carolyn told Nagarote: “We pick off Blue one by one.” Kelly agreed. Jenn expressed surprise to hear that that Kelly wasn’t tied to them at all, not even Mike. Kelly said she wasn’t with them but, in confessional, she was quick to set the picture straight: “When I came to this tribe, I had to go deep undercover and make them believe that I am going to be with them but I am definitely with the Blue Collars all the way to the end.”

The show did very little for Kelly’s reputation as an undercover police officer by reminding us that she had approached the swap like an assignment to infiltrate a crime gang. She did such a bad job that Jenn saw right through it. The vote had to be explained but it could have been presented in another way unless the goal was to show Jenn’s astuteness.

The Beach

We’ve had some very interesting mergers in the show’s history. This wasn’t one of them. Jeff didn’t even bother showing up.
Rodney’s confessional explained: “We were walking into a challenge but there was nothing there. We see the other tribe... there’s no Jeff...I guess that means we are merged...The first thing I was thinking was strategy...Let me see what I can piece together to put myself ahead in this game.”
It didn’t take long for Kelly to blow her own cover because she immediately went to hug Mike.

The group soon found the food, the note and the new buffs. The note told them they’d be going back to the old Escameca camp.

(The one with an idol yet to be found of course)

Tyler’s interview: “My entire future has changed; I’ve got new found hope that I’m no longer on the bottom of something and that I can go out and test the water with people that I have never met before. It’s a whole new life and it smells so sweet.”
Dan and Hali gave us the fluff confessionals. First Dan: “Merge time, baby! That means food! We got a crateful of food!”

Then Hali: “I felt like a Greek Goddess when all that was laid out. I was like: Give me the grapes: I’m in heaven.”

The question of the last vote soon surfaced with Shirin saying: “Tell us about Joaquin. I thought Rodney and Joaquin would bond.”

Mike didn’t skate around the issue: “That’s part of the reason for the vote.”

That led to Carolyn’s confessional: “It’s clear that anyone who has a strong bond with one other person is not going to make it. Tyler and I have been together since day three. He’s the only one who I told that I have the idol so I trust him but we are not going to be a pair that anybody knows about. You cannot show any strong bonds at all or you’ll be out of here. Game on, baby.”

Like we heard Mike saying, the vote reveals everything about alliances so it shouldn’t surprise anyone after this cycle that Carolyn and Tyler are close. Still, the editing went to great lengths to show that they were keeping a safe distance between them. And it wasn’t only the editing that kept them apart: During the merge feast, we saw that they sat on opposite sides of the blanket while Kelly sat right between Sierra and Rodney. Also, Rodney didn’t even include Tyler in the group he wanted to form with Carolyn. So we can say she succeeded so far. How far can she go with that success? It could certainly lead her to the victory.

The Merged Tribe

They played the old Fiji trick on the players: The old camp was gone. If we look back at Fiji, the losers were given the confessionals that complained about the absence of the luxurious shelter while Earl took it in stride.

This is what Alex said during Fiji's merge episode: “Thank God, after 7 days of hell at Ravu, I get to eat rice, potatoes…toothbrush, toothpaste, a shower, I smell like crap, I know. Finally…Finally, things are looking up, until… What the hell? This is so messed up! Bastards! We got Nothing…Nothing!”

Cassandra: “I was so elated to be going back to Moto Island. I had been thinking: How am I going to make it on Exile Island? There was going to be the snakes, no bed, no couch. Lord! Please! What are we going to do?”

Compare this to Earl’s confessional and it was easy to see who would be the winner: ““We had…Nothing. I felt OK with that. I kind of laughed; I had a smirk on my face. I’ve already been trained. Being at the old Ravu for 13 days. Hey! I’m just back home again.”

So, how did our players react?

Arriving first, Carolyn asked: “Wait... where is everything?”
Sierra exclaimed: “Oh! my Gosh! What happened?”

Dan had a confessional: “So we merged and we walked in with our hands full of stuff, all the food that we didn’t eat, we walk back into camp and we’re all excited to show what our camp looked like and it’s GONE!”

Joe said they’d have to start from the bottom while Carolyn said it would be a team building exercise. Joe said he didn’t mind.

Carolyn’s interview: “Are you kidding me? I mean, this was rough. It was like Day One all over again and we were like: No.”

After asking the White Collars to line them up, Mike said: “You know me: I’m a worker bee.”

Mike in confessional: “Now, it’s one tribe and we’re left with the responsibility of making a new world for ourselves. One people battling it out for a million dollars.”

If we can rely on the Fiji model, then this segment would eliminate Carolyn, Sierra and Dan while Mike was given Earl’s role. Poor Carolyn! We never considered Sierra and Dan as contenders even if they look to be heading for the Final Three but new hope had been given to Carolyn’s story but then, right after it took a great step forward, she is heard complaining about the harsh conditions. Shouldn’t you expect that on Survivor? The complainers are always relegated to the editors’ doghouse. Despite that, these players were seen doing the work: Mike, Hali, Joe, Rodney, Will... and Carolyn, if you want to count someone that was practically hidden behind Joe. It would be funny symbolic trickery: The winner was hidden behind one of the season’s big character! I feel like I am the one being wishy-washy on Carolyn but I’m going with what the editors are showing! One great premiere followed by a series of meaningless episodes and now a surprisingly good merge episode.

Kelly was then shown gathering wood with Mike, telling us how happy she was to have made the merge. She added: “Mike and I are like one. He is like a family member so Mike and I are definitely the tightest out here.”

Mike in confessional: “Right now, strategy wise, it looks like the five blues are still strong so all we have to do is pull two and we run numbers in this game but we’ll see how it all plays out because who knows who is really together and who is forming new bonds at this point.”

Jenn was quick to point out to Hali: “I’m more concerned about what’s going to go on now. We don’t have Kelly. I saw her talking to the four.”

Hali had also seen it: “I knew she was going to flip in a sec.”

Jenn’s confessional: “I don’t trust Kelly at all. I haven’t since the beginning. I knew she would go back to the Blue Collars. Now, all I have to do is try to grab all the White Collars and take out the Blue Collars because I’d rather play with the White Collars than Blue Collars at this point.”

Jenn agreed with Hali that Shirin was with them.

Next, Joe told Jenn and Hali that he was happy to see them because he thought he was going home.

Joe’s interview: “You know, I dodged a bullet the night before. The Blue saved me but I was really excited to see all three of my tribe mates because, in my gut, I trust the No Collars.”

Will was shown when Joe mentioned trusting the No Collars. While it shows that Joe isn’t aware of Will’s plan to defect, the scene featured Jenn’s cleverness once again. She wasn’t fooled by an experienced undercover agent and she would soon take action to eliminate the threat. One thing to consider though: Jenn only saw Kelly as being loyal to the Blue Collars. From what we were given to hear, she didn’t notice that Mike and Kelly formed a power couple. I think the distinction is important.

Jenn asked if Rodney was smart. Joe’s expression gave the answer.

At the same time however, Rodney was talking to Will. In confessional and in discussion, Rodney threw out his plan. To Will, he said: “We go me, you, Kelly and Carolyn: That’s four. I am sticking to this “Blue Collar strong” thing. So, if I stick to the “Blue Collar strong”, you, me, Kelly and Carolyn sneak in and dissect them three at the end. So, we go in with seven, we get the numbers then we dissect them out then you, me, Kelly and Carolyn are sitting there then we make the move.”

Rodney then exposed his plan to Carolyn and Kelly. He told Carolyn: “I loved Joaquin. That dude was loyal. If you liked Joaquin then Hey! You’re looking at his clone from Boston. It’s a little different. This isn’t New York but if we can get over the Yankees-Red Sox hate. Ha! Ha! Ha! We got five blue and we got you two. That’s seven. Then guess what? At the end, when they least expect it, me, you, Kelly, Will chop off the blues.”

Here is Rodney’s confessional: “When they voted out Joaquin, I felt extremely disrespected by these Blues. Now, I am looking at it like this: Let me get some numbers and get out the three who screwed me over in the beginning. I was the first to get to Will: Come with me, bro, I got your back. I’m always riding numbers, baby, so I’m going to have four people to ride on against Sierra, Dan and Mike. I’m going to slowly chop their heads off and I’m going to have the numbers. So, if I can build these bonds then it’s looking beautiful for Rodney, isn’t it?”

Carolyn also gave an interview after hearing Rodney’s plan: “As soon as we got on the beach, Rodney, he’s like: “Final Four: It’s us. We’re tight. We are going to go there. In his plan, he’s got me, Will, Kelly and Rodney: Final Four. The thing is; he’s still a blue and he’s still going to vote with them but it’s nice to hear that I’m wanted in a Final Four.”

Rodney plays Fantasy Survivor. He makes an alliance much like a player does his fantasy baseball draft: He doesn’t consider their likes and needs, their prior affiliations or their motivations; he just fits them in his roster and hopes for the best. We knew this plan wasn’t going to work the minute we didn’t hear Kelly say in confessional, something along the line of: Rodney thinks I’m with him and will help him chop off Mike’s head but I’m with Mike so Rodney’s head is the one that will get chopped.” It’s funny also how Rodney always starts his enumerations with “me, you, etc...” It sure tells everyone who he thinks has to come first! Despite all this, Rodney did get Carolyn and Will to vote with the Blue Collars so we can’t even rely on Rodney always failing!

Tyler and Carolyn had a talk: “You and I are arguably the tightest alliance in this game but we have to stay apart because that’s exactly why they targeted Joaquin.” They agreed to work with Rodney and realized that their votes were needed.

Carolyn gave us another interview: “I have the No Collars on my side right now and Tyler is telling me that we should go with the Blue Collars so I’m kind of smack in the middle now. Tyler and I are going to decide which way we want to go, going forward.”

Merged Tribe – Day 18

Dan was having trouble walking on the beach when he came across Jenn. He told her that he had been stung by a jellyfish. She told him to put some hot water on it.

Interestingly, Jenn was also limping and she had removed the bottom of her bikini and had something tied on her upper thigh so this scene happened after the immunity challenge where she would get stung by a bee in a very sensitive spot. Why transpose this scene? I think the editors decided to create an impression of hectic scrambling after the immunity challenge, something that wouldn’t have worked as well if we knew the challenge actually happened a day before Tribal Council and that the players took time to go alone in the ocean. The resulting montage gives an even better impression of Jenn’s play: Despite the little time she had to decipher the craziness, she still was aware that she was the target.

After telling Shirin he didn’t need her to pee on his ankle, Dan had a confessional: “I was taking a morning dip and I got stung by something. I wasn’t sure what it was, whether it was stingray or jellyfish. It felt like I got sliced. But you know; I am way smarter and way tougher than I look: I’m not going anywhere.”

That’s when Mike proposed “Merica” as their tribe name. Some liked the idea.

Mike’s confessional: “Our tribe; “Merica” is fitting because you have the White Collar, the No Collar and, obviously the best, the Blue Collars. We are all part of the melting pot which makes America so great so that’s our tribe name: “Merica!”

Hali gave us her approval in confessional: “I love our tribe name so much because I’m going to be a criminal defense attorney and, as a criminal defense attorney, you are part of the Constitution...the greatest blueprint for government that was ever devised. I really believe in it, it’s like a religion of America.”

Shirin had a different opinion: “Oh! My goodness. We have the worst tribe name in Survivor history. We didn’t go with America; we dropped the A and went for “Merica”. Like a bunch of rednecks idiots who don’t know what our own country’s name is. I’m horrified and embarrassed and Mr. Texas himself, Mike, is so proud of this name. Even Sarah Palin... All kind of crazy crap comes out of her mouth, I never heard that woman call America, “Merica”.”

While Shirin may be more in tune with the internet fan base, I doubt that the editors’ intent was to have the audience agree with her. If it was, we wouldn’t have been given Hali’s seal of approval which included an impassioned opinion of the country’s constitution. It feels more like the scene was telling us that Shirin still doesn’t fit in. However, Shirin’s mention of the “redneck idiots” is a red flag for those who, like me, think Mike is going to win. Is that how we are supposed to see the Blue Collars now?

Next, Mike and Rodney agreed that Joe would be their first target. “If he doesn’t win immunity; he’s out.”

Mike in confessional: “The game plan, at this point, is to run the game all the way to the end with the Blue Collars. We got some numbers to knock out Joe, being at the top of that list but I definitely need Rodney as numbers right now so I got to do Rodney maintenance. I’ll go do Rodney Maintenance.”

Rodney’s confessional: “I love Mike to death but he voted out my boy Joaquin. If my tribe would have stuck to the script, got rid of Joe, we’d be sitting so pretty right now. I’m putting my hustle pants right now. I’m going to let Mike quarterback it but, when the game matters, I’m going to come in full fledge, Tom Brady in the fourth quarter and make this one epic. I’m going to cut his head off.”

Once more this could be seen as putting obstacles in Mike’s journey to victory but if the Blue Collar tribe is turning into “redneck idiots” then it’s possible that Mike is heading for an epic failure. We just saw that Rodney doesn’t always fail and Mike’s plan to do some Rodney maintenance didn’t work.

The Immunity Challenge

Dan, Will and Tyler went down early, so Jeff commented that this challenge favored the lighter players over the heavier ones.

That’s when Sierra started losing her grip so I guess Jeff was calling her fat!

Sierra, Shirin and Kelly dropped out in quick succession. Just before the half hour mark, “Hot Rod” asked Mama C how she felt because he had to drop out. She told him she was doing fine. Joe seemed to realize that the White Collars were with the Blues. Mike and “Hot Rod” fell off their poles, leaving Carolyn as the only Collar left against the three No Collars.
That’s when a bee stung Jenn.

The bee must have been carrying a microphone because we heard it buzzing and biting!

It led to this funny exchange:
Jeff: “What’s happening, Jenn?”
Jenn: “I got stung by something. Are you serious?”
Jeff: “Where did it get you?”
Jenn: “Where my hand is, Jeff.”
Everyone laughed. Well, Jenn laughed and cried. Still, she soldiered on.

When Hali fell off, Joe, Jenn and Carolyn were left to battle it out through a rain storm that suddenly appeared.

Considering that this challenge had been won by Ozzy twice, Tyson, Twila, Danielle and Laura, it wasn’t too surprising to see them at the end although I expected Hali to do a lot better.

Jenn got off the pole just before the hour mark. In a reversal of situation from the episode one challenge, we heard Rodney hoping for Joe to let go. In the end, it was too much for the valiant Mama C who dropped out. Mike and Rodney exchanged disappointed looks.

Jenn had the post-IC confessional: “Joe won immunity. That is awesome. The plan that I want to enact today is get the No Collars, get the White Collars and then take out the actual threats: The Blue Collars.”

Mike was on camera when she mentioned the actual threats. We then saw Sierra and Dan, the trio that I feel are going to be the Final Three. The scene ended with Kelly, the eventual boot. Was this telling us that Jenn’s plan will come up short? It could be that she only manages to eliminate Kelly.

Day 19

While Joe was being congratulated, we heard Carolyn, with a tint of humor, say: “You couldn’t let me win this for my kids, you son of a b*tch.”

After telling everyone to go talk, we saw Mike discussing the vote with Dan, putting the target on Jenn and saying they had to appease Rodney.

Mike told Rodney: “We’re telling Will “Hali” but we’re voting “Jenn”.”

Will agreed to Mike’s “plan” of going after Hali, Joe’s right hand woman.

Mike had the first confessional that was spliced up and presented throughout this scene: “Of course, the golden boy, Joe, wins the first immunity so we got to switch up the plan...I’m thinking: Why not switch it to vote off Jenn or Hali then we break up a power couple and the five Blue Collars are still running this game. Rodney thinks he’s got Will but I don’t trust Will at this point. We are telling Will to write down Hali’s name and the rest of us write down Jenn. When I see Hali’s name written down tonight then I’ll know that I can trust Will.”

While Mike was appropriately cautious not to trust Will, his trickery isn’t foolproof. Seeing that Will did in fact vote for Hali means that Mike could have trusted Will for this vote, not that he can trust him in the future. The deceit could in fact break that trust but Will is going to have a lot more problems going back to the No Collars this time.
The funniest thing is that Mike's plan would have worked better if Will had been lying to him! Had he gone back to the No Collars, he would have told Jenn that Hali was the target so Jenn would probably have given her idol to her ally and been voted out, sparing Kelly.

Will’s confessional: “Since Joe won immunity, they are trying to vote off Hali now. My choices are: Either stay with my tribe, No Collars and try and convince the White Collars to go with us or join Blue Collars. I mean, that’s a huge risk. When you are merging with twelve people, it’s hard to know who you can trust so I think the first vote is going to determine who is loyal and who is not.”

Unfortunately for Will, that first vote didn’t show him any loyalty.

We saw Kelly and Carolyn talking about the vote. They agreed that Jenn and Hali had to be split up.

In confessional, Kelly told us that she bonded quickly with Carolyn after the swap. She added that Carolyn didn’t like the No Collar tribe.

To Hali and Shirin, Jenn said that she didn’t like the Blue Collars and didn’t trust them. They agreed that they trusted Kelly the least and that voting her out would cripple the Blue.

Shirin had an interview: “There are five of them and four No Collars with three White Collars as swing votes. If Blue Collars win the vote tonight, I’m afraid that Blue Collars will have the votes to the end. So right now, I’m swinging No Collar.”

Before Hali could get to him, we heard Tyler telling Mike that it would be hard to trust him. He wanted to be in the loop or he’d go to people who would put him in the loop. Mike said he would love to work with him but Tyler pointed to the obvious.
Tyler’s confessional that is presented below, started here, before his talk with Hali.

We heard Hali saying to Tyler that the No Collars wanted to join with the White Collars and that the vote was going to be Kelly. We then heard her say: “Join with me, Jenn, Shirin...”
Tyler responded: “I’m a swing. I can’t trust the Blue, they already stabbed me. I’m in way over my head with those guys but I don’t know you guys either.”

And people say that today’s players are savvier than the old players! Tyler’s response to Hali reminded me of Big Tom in the All-Stars’ final 5 when he was so proud of his new found swing position that he openly flaunted it in Boston Rob’s face. http://www.funny115.com/v1/88.htm

Why didn’t this happen to Tyler as well? Of course, it’s a little more complicated at 12 than at 5 but the principle is the same: Get rid of the player sitting on the fence.

And what should we think of Hali? Instead of securing Tyler’s vote by making him an offer he couldn’t refuse such as a Final three deal, she tells him to “talk to other people” leaving him a total free agent.

Tyler in confessional: “I don’t know what I am going to do yet but I have options and options are always a fantastic thing to have especially when I thought, just a few days ago, that I was the next guy going home. The original tribes are definitely sticking together. It seems to be Blue versus No Collar. I can go either way. Either I vote with No Collar and vote out Kelly or go with Blue Collar and target Jenn. So right now, Carolyn and I are the swing votes. We have been hiding since day one, wherever we go will change this game dramatically.”

Tyler explained the situation to Carolyn, telling her that the No Collars wanted to go after Kelly and that Shirin was with them.

To Hali, Jenn said that they could be on the bottom; that they could be trying to get them voted out. She added that it would be important to know which one of them was the target because she had an idol. That surprised Hali who wanted to know how she got it. Jenn simply said: “Magic!”

Jenn in confessional: “No one is going to thinks that I have an idol so if I get an inkling that things aren’t going to go as we planned on getting out Kelly, I’ll just play my idol. I’d rather not use my idol when there are still twelve people left in the game. I’d rather use it when there are five people left in the game but I don’t know how tribal is going to go. I’m terrified. No Collar is together 100 percent and we plan on staying that way as far as I know. Blue Collar? It seems like they are sticking together too but I think anything can happen tonight and I have no idea what to do.”

When Jenn was saying she didn’t know how tribal was going to go, we saw Tyler getting a massage from Mike, telling us how it was leaning! While this episode turned out great for Jenn, I fear that she will regret not having that idol at final five. When we hear someone stating a number so clearly, it always makes me wonder if that is where then journey will end. Will Jenn miss out on Final Five because she was forced to play her idol so soon? She still has a long way to go before that point.

Tribal Council

In a way to express the uncertainty of the vote, Will said: “Jeff, who may get voted out tonight. Ain’t nobody safe so I hope you have an idol.”

Kelly told Jeff that they were all nervous but that it was exciting.

Joe agreed that everyone knew it was a game. They all had a knife and it was “stab or get stabbed. Someone’s got to go and don’t take it personal, it’s just a game and that’s what makes it fun.”

Will said that his vote would show that people can count on him.

Jeff asked Mike if the White Collars could be the swing votes.
Mike said it certainly could, that the vote would boil down to the people you could trust, making a decision and living with it.

Tyler said he was approached by many people and was trying to find out where he could fit in. He added that someone would put an ice pick in the tribe’s back.

Interesting that two of our main themes for the season returned in consecutive quotes. Mike talks about making a decision, Tyler wants to fit in.

Asked to comment on Tyler’s ice pick comment, Carolyn said that the lines would be drawn tonight. She said: “Once that line is drawn, it’s hard to go back the other way.”

Will was shown when Carolyn made that comment but like the No Collar “traitor”, Carolyn and Tyler have also shown where they sit.

Shirin told Jeff that she didn’t see herself as a swing vote.
That pleased Jenn.

Jenn said that she was scared but that they all had an idea of what was going on. She was hoping that her idea was the one that got the most.

Jeff asked Rodney about the Hidden immunity Idol.

Rodney said he didn’t know if anybody had one, that he was waiting to see what happens.

Jenn said that she didn’t know who is on whose side.
Dan said that pleading wouldn’t help at this point because people knew where they were going to go. He said that the line would be drawn with a chain saw, not an ice pick.

Satisfied with this graphic description, Jeff sent them to vote.
Not a single vote was revealed before Jeff went to tally them.

He asked if anybody wanted to play an idol and that got Jenn to simply say: “Jeff”. She held up a finger as she went to her bag. Walking over to the podium, she said: “I really don’t want to go home tonight.”

I guess Jen didn’t see Rodney’s expression because she thought she had made a mistake when the first vote turned out to be against Hali but her mood changed quickly when the next 7 went against her. Shirin started clapping while Hali and Jenn embraced and laughed. When Kelly was voted out, Joe called Jenn “savage” while Hali said she was a genius.
Will looked lost while Rodney was fuming.

Certainly happy with the result, Jeff commented: “You used the words knife, ice pick and chainsaw to describe the vote. Based on the reactions, I’d say it was more like a bomb.”

The Story

In an episode where the danger of the power couples was amply discussed, it’s noteworthy that no one mentioned that Kelly and Mike were the power couple in the tribe with the numbers. Hali and Jenn were mentioned as the power couple in the No Collar tribe and, while a first attempt to split them failed, they should remain on everyone’s radar. Tyler and Carolyn want to keep their strong connection quiet but can they now that the lines have been drawn?

Like Foa Foa and Aitu before them, the No Collars with Shirin acting as an honorary member, are now the underdogs facing a big disadvantage big numbers. We have heard quite a few times that this is a numbers game but that could be to hide their comeback. As it has been for most of the season, a lot of the story depends on what Rodney will do. His impulsiveness can destroy the game for the Blue Collars. He is certainly as undependable as Shambo was for Galu. Can Mike do some effective Rodney Maintenance? He will need to keep him under control if he is to be our winner. The main thing that plays in his favor is that we keep hearing how dysfunctional the Blue Collars are as a tribe yet they were the only tribe to vote in unison during this episode. Jeff said that the tribe’s success depended on staying united and they showed that they could do it. Will that resolve continue now that they lost one of their own?

Looking at Jenn's idol, we get an interesting new perspective on an episode 1 scene:

Like the scorpion he ate, Jenn's scorpion idol put Mike in a lot of pain!

The Characters

Swinging in the Wind: Their decisions didn’t get the expected results

Will: He made his choice and his vote let everyone know where he stood but, unfortunately for him, no one trusted him enough to tell him about the real plan. He won’t be trusted by his former allies and that could cost him dearly if they manage to reverse the votes in the next Tribal Council. If the Blue Collars implode, Will is going to find himself abandoned by all sides. His only hope rests in Rodney’s hands and that can’t be a comfortable position.

Shirin: She made it clear during Tribal Council that she was throwing her lot with the No Collars. That’s wasn’t surprising since most of us figured she should have been cast with them from the start. The problem is that she now stands on the wrong side of the division. Even if Shirin was to make it to the end, who would vote for her? She’s on a journey to prove that she isn’t as bad as we first thought but she still barely fits in.

Tyler: From what was shown, Tyler gave his vote to the Blue Collars with nothing more in return than a shoulder massage. Unlike Carolyn, he didn’t get a Final Four deal and he knew that Mike’s desire to work with him was mostly due to circumstances. His decision put him in the majority so it will give him time to maneuver... if the majority remains intact. I wonder if Shirin’s inclusion in the No Collars’ plan had anything to do with Tyler’s decision.

Sailing into the Wind: They Attacked the Game Forcefully but Suffered a Setback

Rodney: Frustrated that Mike didn’t give him the chance to get Joe the last time, “Hot Rod” had to cool his heels once more after the Immunity Challenge. His frustration with Mike is growing everyday so it creates a natural narrative that puts the Texan in danger while hiding the fact that Joe, Jenn and Hali have little chance of making it to the end. Or do they? Can Rodney blow up the game for Blue and White? Coach’s hatred for Brendan and Erinn caused Timbira’s fall while Galu’s division opened the door for Foa Foa so maybe history can repeat itself. Those previous minorities had an advantage that the No Collars don’t have: Erinn and Shambo liked their new friends a lot more than their original tribe mates and their votes helped greatly. We heard that Carolyn doesn’t like the No Collars, no one can stand Shirin besides her new friends and while Joe is liked, he is the main challenge threat that no one wants to keep. Rodney’s temper will cause his own downfall but that doesn’t mean that it will give the game to his rivals.

Sierra: The previous episode had put Sierra in a very tricky position, having to decide which way to go but we didn’t hear her talking about that decision. It tells us that, having chosen her course of action, Sierra’s impact on the rest of the game will be minimal. She had some affinities with the No Collar Women and she seemed to get along with Joe but absolutely nothing came of it. It seems that Sierra is committed to the Blue Collar ship and she will sink or sail with them to the end.

Dan: We had another indication that Dan won’t be our winner when he complained in confessional about the lost shelter. While he seems committed to the Blue Collars, Dan’s desire to be memorable could lead him to see if the grass is greener on the No Collar tribe. His vote would be welcomed by the minority but I doubt that he will betray Mike because those two have been together in every strategy discussion.

Mike: Jenn’s “scorpion” idol certainly took a bite out of Mike’s game but, like the scorpion in the first episode, it didn’t kill him. Should we infer that it will make him stronger? While others complained about production’s trick with the shelter, Mike was heard saying: “We’re left with the responsibility of making a new world for ourselves.” He even ended that confessional with a reference to the million dollars so he still has to be considered the top contender. Rodney identified him as a leader and while that is a dangerous position, Survivor editors like to show the players using Game Theory to their advantage so that’s something that plays in Mike’s favor. Some red flags were raised when Shirin referred to him as a “redneck idiot” but it’s doubtful that this will be the lasting impression of the tribe that represents Blue Collar America. Or should I say “Merica”?! This episode made it look as if Mike was doomed but I still think he is our winner.

Sailing close to the Wind: They Took a Risk and it Paid Off.

Hali: Once more, she is taking a back seat to her closest ally, simply agreeing to all of Jenn’s ideas. She gave us some nice comments about the reward and the tribe name but that is a very light content in such a vital episode. She was also ignored during the Tribal Council. Putting all this together, we can conclude that Hali won’t win even if the No Collars make a comeback.

Joe: While his win saved him for this week and paved the way to Kelly’s elimination, his strong performance during a very physical challenge is going to keep him on everyone’s radar. He will need to go on an immunity run or find an idol but both should lead to the elimination of his partners.

Wind of Change: They Raised their Game to a New Level

Carolyn: For someone that had remained in the background for most of the pre-merge, Carolyn certainly took center stage during this vital episode. She was the first to realize that she had to keep her alliance with Tyler secret and she got a Final Four offer from Rodney. She was the one that said the line had been drawn so does that mean she is committed to the Blue Collars? Besides Carolyn’s dislike for the No Collars, there’s also the problem of Shirin and those two don’t seem capable of working together. Mama C has earned the respect of everyone with that challenge performance. This episode has put Carolyn in serious contention for the title of Sole Survivor but can she make it to the end with anyone else than Rodney and Will? I’m not sure anyone else would want to take her to the end so she will have to make her own way.

Jenn: For a player that didn’t have much of an impact on the strategy of the game, Jenn certainly changed that with a great showing this week. She immediately realized that Kelly was lying to them and that she was going to go back to the Blue Tribe. The editors showed Dan’s injury scene out of sequence to create a greater feeling of frenzy during the post challenge discussions. The result was that it appeared as if Jenn had less time to realize that her plan to get the White Collars on board wasn’t working even if Shirin had joined them. She brilliantly played the idol to save herself, hurting her opponents at the same time. Will it be enough or was this just a one week reprieve? She has always looked like a strong contender and, from an editing perspective, this episode solidified her story. The problem is that her game needs a lot of help and there doesn’t seem to be many openings. Her best hope is that Rodney and Mike were both closer to Kelly than they are to each other so maybe Kelly played a big role in keeping the tribe united. Will Kelly’s elimination lead to Blue Collars’ implosion like it did when Erik was voted out in Samoa? The outcome of the season depends on the answer to that question.

Michel,

Of the original 'White Collars', it is only Carolyn who seems to currently earn her living as a senior executive in a conventional, hierarchical corporate structure. In contast, Shirin, Max, Joaquin, Tyler and So seem to be impressive entrepreneurs.

Too, her edit (and other factors that I won't belabor here ...) seem to me to indicate that following So's, Max's and Joaquin's exits, in Tyler and Shirin (at the very least) she has/had two or more followers in search of a leader. Yet, after Max's boot, she rejected Shirin's overtures and seems content to market herself and Tyler as pawns in someone else's game. In particular, in Rodney's game!

So, I didn't see anything positive about the lady's obviously 'flattered' reaction to Rodney's obviously superficial hustle. Because, I would think that the show's editors would have expected - as I did - that Carolyn would be about establishing her own dominant alliances rather than relying on the charity of others. And I suspect that their choice of clips was not a good thing for the former New Yorker.

And now that I've said all of that, she will almost certainly be the Season's winner.

In any event ...

Thank you once again for your insights. I look forward to them each week.

G

Thank you, Georgianna, I appreciate your feedback.

From a game perspective, I thought Carolyn's approach was much better than Tyler's since she got that offer while he got nothing. She got Rodney to open the door and that's always the priority, whether you are a young candidate looking for a first job or a senior executive trying to get people to invest in your ideas.
From an editing perspective, Rodney is dumb so that's the best ally possible.

LAST EDITED ON 04-04-15 AT 05:47 PM (EST)

But ...

There was no saving grace in that clip. We didn't hear Carolyn say that she considered an alliance with Rodney to be a 'foot in the doorway' to her own control of events.

Instead, we were left with her apparent endorsement of Rodney's plan - “As soon as we got on the beach, Rodney, he’s like: “Final Four: It’s us. We’re tight. We are going to go there. In his plan, he’s got me, Will, Kelly and Rodney: Final Four." And what seemed to me to be her somewhat needy - "The thing is; he’s still a blue and he’s still going to vote with them but it’s nice to hear that I’m wanted in a Final Four.”

Now, there is no Kelly. And there may not be a Will (who has, I think, some hope of being welcomed back into the No Collar fellowship). But, if we are to take the edit at face value, there is no way back for the Non-Blue, Non-No Carolyn. And, ultimately, I don't think that Mike, Dan and Sierra are going to be any more enthusiastic about the May/December dalliance of Carolyn and Rodney than they were about the bromance of Joaquin and Rodney (who couldn't hide a clandestine relationship with a bushel basket of plausible denial).

All of which suggests to me that the person most likely to benefit from Carolyn's and Rodney's back-of-the-beach liason will be Tyler. And that, in the end, we will have in the two - The Dumb ... and ... The Dumber.

However, if I should happen to be right, it will sting. I wanted Carolyn to win this Game.

G

I think I want her to win too. I always tend to root for the older people. But this season who knows.

The Shirin confessional is weird.

I feel like, in a lot of circumstances, they would put that Shirin confessional about Merica in there to make her look bad. She is a player that got the "annoying edit" for a decent amount of time, after all. But after giving her a personal story last week, it felt like they were trying to spin her into a spunky underdog type. So then they turn around this week and give her the confessional slamming Hero Mike.

What's the deal?

What her confessional really did was open up a dialogue with the audience about whether the tribe name is stupid. I don't know if the editors felt it was too stupid to not at least mention, but they very easily could have left it alone. Why even bring it up?

There are still shades of the Jon Misch edit about Mike that still gives me pause. It's ridiculously great for him (from an editing perspective) that they didn't rehash the challenge throw and make it look like a bad thing. Especially considering what Joe ended up doing. That fact alone makes it looks like he has it in the bag. But this constant theme of "Mike is kind of a dope sometimes" is eyebrow-raising.

You could be right, Jims. That confessional could have been a way of asking us what we think about the name. I think Hali's confessional coupled with the approvals that we heard from others (namely Kelly, Joe and Dan) were meant to tip the opinion in Mike's favor.

You see some of Jon Misch in Mike and that could be where he is heading but I see a lot of Tony: All over the place, playing in a way that should get him voted out but always one step ahead of the others.

... but I see a lot of Tony: All over the place, playing in a way that should get him voted out but always one step ahead of the others.

So do I. And it would seem that next week we're going to be treated to this Season's version of Tony's Spy Shack.

I do think, though, that it's probably going to be some time before we will see another duo of players or a Season as entertaining (and as valuable to the franchise) as were Tony, Kass and Cagayan.

I actually replay some of its Episodes. And that is something that I've never done before.

G

I already pretty much said what I have regarding Jon.

Mike definitely is a little bit of Tony and Jeremy.

Now with Shirin, some people think she's getting a redemption/endgame edit like Kathy in Marquesas. But I thought editing is way different now.

LAST EDITED ON 04-05-15 AT 07:05 PM (EST)

Nah, Shirin is full-on Eliza from Vanuatu. It's almost shocking how much she resembles her, in a lot of ways. Eliza didn't get a sympathetic backstory like Shirin did, but she got the spunky underdog edit around the Final 8 or Final 7.

I was actually kind of rooting for Eliza going into the finale that year. Vanuatu was a weird season.

Previously on Survivor

- After 17 days, Escameca and Nagarote finally merged. Mike’s confessional: “Now it’s one tribe battling it out for a million dollars.”

- At the first immunity challenge, Joe outlasted all the rest.

- Facing tribal council, Mike wanted to test Will’s allegiance. Mike’s confessional: “When I see Hali’s name written down tonight, then I will know that I can trust Will.”

- The real battle for power was Blue Collar who were targeting Jenn versus No Collar who were targeting Kelly with White Collar in the middle deciding who gains control. We saw Carolyn talking to Tyler: “They need our votes” followed by Tyler’s confessional: “Wherever we go will change this game dramatically.

- At Tribal Council, Shirin stuck with the No Collars while Carolyn, Tyler and Will sided with the majority but numbers don’t matter when an idol is played at the perfect moment. We see Jenn telling Jeff: “I don’t want to go home.”
- In the end, Kelly was sent home.

The first thing that stands out in this recap is that it already frames the contest between Mike’s Blues and Joe’s No Collars. The White Collars decision wasn’t presented as a way for them to take control of the game but deciding who they were going to put in control. It paints them as the enablers, not as our protagonists. Reinforcing that view, Jeff didn’t mention Carolyn’s valiant effort at the challenge. Had Jeff said that it came down to Carolyn and Joe, it would have muddled the message: This season is going to be all about Joe versus Mike.

The Battle Is On

The players returned and were all commenting on the game getting real. Mike said: “Well played, Jenn.”

Rodney’s confessional: “Seeing Kelly go, it broke my heart. It shouldn’t have been like that. I’m really mad about that and I kind of put it on Mike. Mike is the leader and he changed up the vote. It was supposed to be Hali but at the last second he changed it to Jenn to test Will’s trust. Mike’s an idiot redneck, straight out. You got Mama C Carol, Will, me and Tyler. All of us are on board. I do love my Blues but we could be witnessing some very interesting stuff when it gets down to seven.”

Once more, Rodney’s confessional is used to let us think that Mike is in danger. It reminds us of Natalie vow to avenge Jeremy’s elimination last year so some will say that Mike is going to pay for his “mistakes” but Rodney isn’t Natalie! He is so focused on the events that will occur at Final seven that it seems like foreshadowing: He could be witnessing the vote of the Final Seven from the Jury box!

Having to explain the vote, Rodney told Will that Mike was running the show. He added: “We got me, you, Tyler and Mama C but Mike is running the show. We’re gonna keep on letting him run it. Once Joe, Hali, Jenn and Shirin are gone, we’re gonna run the ship.” Will was happy to hear that so he walked off.

Will may have walked right off the island because he was practically unseen for the rest of the episode!

Lying on the beach with Jenn, Hali, Joe and Shirin, Mike said: “Great job. It definitely didn’t go with what I wanted to happen tonight obviously.”

Jenn interjected: “Sorry that I’m still here to disappoint you, Mike, but...pfiiit!” (Jenn’s confessional started here)

Mike went on: “But I respect that play. That was sweet.”

Jenn in confessional: “I knew they were going to vote for me so I played my idol. Then Kelly went home. Joe, Hali, Shirin and I were so stoked, just stoked while the rest of the tribe was like mouth open, shocked and sad: Oh! Poor Kelly. Who gives a (censured). I thought it was great. The No Collars are back in town and ready to win. I love to mess with the other alliance. I believe there’s still fun to be had and little things to screw up for everyone else. I want to mess with things because it provides me with entertainment.”

Considering the content of this confessional and Jenn’s absence in key moments later on and we can definitely take her out of contention. Her nice story was ruined by the same lack of compassion we had seen when Nina was voted out and by the fact that she isn’t taking the game seriously. She enjoyed messing with the other alliance, it entertained her but it didn’t really advance her own position.

Day 20

The tribe was preparing breakfast: Dan was working on a fish, Jenn was cutting some of the leftover salami while Shirin and Sierra were cooking a pot of rice.

Rodney wanted to know how many scoops of rice were in the pot. He was told three and that everyone agreed on that. Rodney wanted them to throw in a little more. He then put his hands on the salami that Jenn had cut. That irritated Shirin.

Joe’s expression and the music told us that Rodney was being ridiculous...again

Rodney in confessional: “Ever since Joe and his stooges came over here, they run the food, they portion out the food. But, you know what? Every time I get mad, I’m just going to walk away, punch a tree or something and walk back in there with a fresh cool, calm and collected mind state. The way I grew up, respect is not given, it’s earned so, out here, it’s tough for me to be a fugazi. I can’t be fake. I got to respect you in order to give you respect and if I don’t respect you, you are going to know it. Cherie or Shiri, whatever her name is, she’s the most pointless person in this game. She shouldn’t even be here. Nobody can stand her but at the end of the day, we are running the game. We got seven to their four. The game is pretty much over for them. We just have to weed out all the garbage.”

Seeing Shirin on camera for much of Rodney’s rant, you have to expect that she will outlast him, especially since everything that Rodney said about Shirin could apply to him. He could have been voted out instead of Lindsey and nobody can stand him.

The Reward Challenge

When they walked in for the challenge, Will and Hali started applauding.

It was probably because they were surprised to see that Jeff bothered to show up this time.

Joe was flying through this challenge, Shirin didn’t quite figure out the proper technique while we heard that “Carolyn fell short.”

Joe, Mike and Hali moved on to the puzzle portion of the challenge

Twice, Jeff said that Mike was having problems with the puzzles and twice Mike commented. First, Mike thanked the host and then he told himself to settle down.

After a bit of a hesitation which opened the door for Mike, Joe completed his puzzle and won the reward.

Jeff made the comment that Joe was undefeated in individual challenges and that could be a hint that he is just starting. While it wasn’t surprising to see Joe win, the players he picked to accompany him were. Surprising and interesting!

Joe picked: Tyler, Will and Carolyn (because of her performance in the previous IC). When Jeff said he could add one more, Rodney started pleading, saying that he was starving more than everybody but Joe told him he had been eating more than everybody. Despite silent pleas from Hali and Jenn, Joe chose Shirin because she was a super fan and it would be an experience of a lifetime.

Rodney continued to complain even after they left. That caused Jenn to say: “I (censored) hate you.”

Joe’s picks must have frustrated Jenn so maybe she was transferring some of her anger over to Rodney. The thing we have to consider is that Jenn wasn’t given a confessional to let us know how she felt. Was she angry? Was that anger balanced by knowing he chose players that they needed? She certainly had something to say but that wasn’t deemed important.

Mike gave us a confessional: “Joe winning this reward was devastating because he’s probably getting a clue to the Hidden immunity idol on the reward. The kid is amazing, man! I don’t know how I’m going to beat him so this is where the rubber meets the road.”

Even a simple reward is used to build the storyline that Mike is in danger. The epic battle is underway so we have to hear that Joe is a formidable opponent in some way despite his numerical disadvantage.

The Reward

Joe’s interview was heard while he was flying down the zip-line: “...It felt fantastic floating over the jungle! I’ve never been zip lining before.”

Joe enumerated his companions but he never told us why he chose them. The choices were obviously strategic but the thoughts that led him to that strategy weren’t detailed at all. It could be telling us that Joe will never get the numbers on his side, that he can only hope to Outplay everyone.

Shirin in confessional: “I just couldn’t believe my luck: I got to go zip-lining with Carolyn and I’m like; Dang it! I don’t like her and don’t want her to eat pizza and have a cool adventure.”

The zip –line was another occasion to show that Shirin doesn’t understand technique! She didn’t even realize that she had to brake. It also told us that despite a good moment following Max’s elimination, Shirin isn’t very likable herself.

This episode showed that there is a lot of animosity, even hatred, between these players. It’s starting to give a bad flavor to the season.

Carolyn’s interview: “I was so excited...If you look at it, Joe’s picks are kind of interesting because he picked no Blue Collar because obviously the Blue Collars are out to get him. I was happy about it: Smart move!”

Right after saying that, we all saw that there was something inside Carolyn’s soda bottle.

Joe in confessional: “I looked over and thought I saw something in Carolyn’s bottle of soda.” To the group, he said: “I wish I had more soda.” Carolyn handed him the bottle that she had just put down. Joe’s confessional continued: “I grabbed it and as soon as I looked inside, I saw that there was a note in the bottom. I tried to just chug it and put it in my mouth but I saw Tyler looked over at me. Tyler saw me so I’m trying to figure out our plan to read it together, what we are going to do.”

I would have liked to see Carolyn’s reaction at home while watching this, thinking she easily could have had two idols!

Tyler’s confessional: “Out of the corner of my eye, I saw Joe almost choked on an immunity idol clue. I could have outed him right then and there but I sat on it, silent. I just figured that the clue was something that definitely opens up new options. If Joe finds the immunity idol then that also opens up new options.”

Once more, this episode will show that Tyler talks a good game but cannot follow through with actions.

Day 21

The sun wasn’t quite up yet when Joe walked over to where Tyler was resting. It happened to be right next to Mike.

Joe’s confessional: “It wasn’t even twilight and Tyler was wide awake. I think he was waiting for me to get up. I’m going to share the clue to the hidden immunity idol with Tyler and that’s going to make him and I close now and bonded.”

As soon as the two started gesturing, we saw that Mike wasn’t really sleeping.

Mike’s confessional: “I’m sitting in the chair with my eyes half-way open to see what is going on. I’m acting like I’m sleeping so Joe and Tyler get up, they go around the corner, bring the dishes like they are going down the river. I knew today was going to be a mad dash because I figured they were getting an immunity idol clue at the reward. The whole time, I am tracking them down the beach from tree to tree. I’m like spy versus spy! I’m jumping in bushes, climbing up this tree, I’m peeking through leaves, you know, trying to stay camouflaged where they can’t see me.”

Right after he said this, we saw Joe, nervously looking around. Thinking that he wasn’t being observed, he opened up the tiny cylinder and read the clue.

If the similarities between Mike and Tony’s edit weren’t evident to everyone before, I’m sure this gave flashbacks of the “spy shack” to many viewers. If Mike is going to win this game as the editing suggests, let’s hope that he seals the deal in a more satisfactory way than the cop.

The clue told Joe and Tyler to look around a “tributary” near a “sea of green”. They’d have to defy gravity and look in a hollow.

Considering that the word “pace” baffled her, Sandy would have had a hard time with this clue even if it wasn’t as difficult as it should be.

Mike’s confessional continued: “Why would Joe be showing Tyler an immunity idol clue unless he is trying to woo him over.”
Mike walked right up to the boys who told him they couldn’t sleep.

Tyler’s interview: “Joe reads the clue and within moments, Mike is upon us. I don’t know what he saw. He could have seen me reading the clue with Joe. I’ve got to be very, very careful about alienating the group that I am in. So, what do I tell Mike? I told him about what the clue read. Thus began a mad dash trying to find where Joe is and Mike was leading the pack of insanity.”

Tyler didn’t look too brave when he told Mike everything. The Texan didn’t even have to ask or say anything. The scene made it abundantly clear that Tyler hates taking risks, always choosing to play it safe. He won’t be using these new options.
Mike told Rodney and Carolyn about the clue and that Joe was looking for the idol.

Mike’s next interview: “Joe just takes off by himself. He is out looking for the idol right now while no one else is watching Joe. I got to find Joe before he finds the idol so that we can send this guy home and it’s not me. I honestly feel that once Joe is out of the game and I don’t have something in my back pocket then I’m the next one to go home. So, I’m going to look for Joe.”

Tyler was on screen when Mike mentioned “it’s not me”. I wonder if that means the idol’s next victim will be Tyler. It was also funny to note the impatience in Mike’s confessional. He was telling his interviewer: I’m kind of busy right now. Can I call you back later?! As for Mike’s comment about his fate after Joe is gone, it shows that he is aware that there are other dangers. That should continue to be the theme of his story.
It apparently didn’t take Mike long to find Joe who was still looking for the idol.

Mike returned to his interview: “Sure enough, I find Joe and it downs on me that I want a bigger target on Joe’s back. I didn’t see him grab and idol, I didn’t see him put an idol in his pocket so I head to the river.” With Joe washing his hair in the river, we saw Mike walking out of the woods and yelling: “Good job, baby brother.” To the others, he said: “He’s got it.” Joe denied it. Mike’s confessional continued: “I basically screamed out: Hey man! Good job on finding the idol. He tried to play it off and I’m not going to let him play it off. I’m going to say that I believe that he found it and that I saw him putting it in his pocket.”

Joe’s confessional: “Mike comes over: “You dog! I can’t believe you got it. Blah-blah-blah.” Mike kind of spoiled my plan.” Joe told Hali that he didn’t have the idol. He added: “Everyone thinks that I have it which is good. So, if I just lay back then if it’s like I have it.”

That was a very interesting tactic from Mike and Joe’s confessional gives us the full impact of Mike’s play: He practically forced Joe to stop looking for the idol and he didn’t have to worry about the others thinking he was going out to look for it himself! If the mad dash had continued, anyone could have stumbled on that idol but now, Mike had an open field.

Strangely, the editors gave us an interlude from all this idol considerations to present a discussion between the two super fans.

Dan told Shirin that he was surprised by her lack of game: “You’re like me, a fan. Why is it that fans can’t do basic maths? You are just one of Joe’s minions. Your game is done.”

Shirin answered: “I think that you just don’t understand my game.”

Dan laughed at that: “You are right, I don’t.”

Dan’s confessional: “Shininny or whatever her name is - I can’t remember her damn name because she annoys me so much – Somebody slap this woman. For the love of God, just slap her and shut her up already. Dear God in heaven! Do us all a favor. I cannot wait till her torch goes out.”

Shirin’s answer was delivered in confessional: “Dan just tries to rip me apart. He just flings insult after insult at me. I actually felt sorry for Dan so I just kind of sat back and thought: What else?”

Dan described two types of people: “Those that don’t do anything and get voted out because of it and people that do too much and annoy everybody and they get voted out. Case in point: You did it to yourself. I’m just trying to be nice, I truly am.”

Why show this scene? Was it simply to create a possible second vote option? I think there is much more to it than that. First, I think the editors took a jab at us, presenting the two super fans in an argument like so many have on this and other public boards. Didn’t they sound like Sucksters arguing about Survivor?! Of course, there was more to it than that because, like Rodney before, everything that Dan said about Shirin applies to him also. He is one of those that don’t do anything and he says too much and annoys everybody. Could Shirin outlast both Rodney AND Dan? If she does, that practically gives her an ticket to the Final Three. The scene could have been shown to show why Dan wouldn’t be receiving a vote from the other super fan.

Finding the Idol

To the sound of very rhythmic music, we followed Mike in his search through the woods: “I’ve been running around trying to find this idol all day...I found a little termite’s nest, trying to get some sustenance in my belly ...Still no luck finding the idol for Mike. This is such a mind beating, exhausting game (Seeing him with tears in his eyes reminded us of Jeff’s words during the last episode: To win this you must want it more than the others) It’s tough, it’s a tough part of the game but I got to find it. So, I got work to do... Don’t think you’re going to come out here and you’re just going to find an idol because it’s that easy. You can’t (we saw him scrapping his hand on a tree trunk.) You got to keep searching in every nook, every cranny. People who find idol in this game are the people who work the hardest in this game.” (Well, I’d remind him of Ralph!)

That’s when he found the idol but it was totally on the ground and it was the Blue Escameca idol. That means that there is another idol, Jenn’s replacement idol, hidden up in a tree somewhere.

Holding the idols in both hands, Mike started crying. Then he said: “That’s what we do, baby: We do the happy dance. When you are feeling like everything is going against you, you keep digging within yourself when you have nothing left and this right here: This is what you find... I’m not going to share it because I need that protection for myself. Right now, I have a chance to get rid of Joe so, if Joe doesn’t win individual immunity, Joe has to go. That’s just plain and simple.”
I think this scene showed that the Blue Collar ethic was the best way to play Survivor...at least for this season. Working harder than everybody else has to be Mike’s winning storyline. The only troubling part of his story is the focus on Joe who didn’t leave even if he had to go.

Day 22 - The Immunity Challenge

For some reason, Jeff turned to Shirin after describing the challenge. Since it was a puzzle, she felt she had a good chance of winning but since she didn’t, was this only to laugh at her or to set the table for a win by Shirin down the road?
She wanted to bring it, put all her energy into it. Jeff had fun imitating her gestures.

Joe had the lead throughout the puzzle but Dan caught up on the slide puzzle. Shirin, who thought she was good at this, was shown looking at the pieces instead of sliding them. The strange sound effect clearly told us she was stuck. One player who wasn’t stuck was Dan who was moving his pieces around very quickly. Jeff said: “You will know when you have it” but twice Dan thought he had it but was wrong. Joe didn’t miss his chance.
It was funny that Dan got the “Outplay” portion wrong!

Jeff told everyone: “Joe is undefeated in three consecutive individual challenges. If you weren’t a threat before, you are definitely a threat now.”

Rodney in confessional: “Joe won. All he does is win challenges like he’s a protopitypical (sic!) all-American white boy. Who wouldn’t want him to win Survivor? So, if it was my decision, Joaquin would have made it and we wouldn’t be dealing with this drama. We would just be sitting back eating rice and beans. Right now, we have to run around and hustle because of the decisions that Mike made.”

Back in Camp

Shirin in confessional: “Today, I got handed an immunity challenge on a silver platter...Joe wins everything. I’d love to win a challenge. It would be like a life achievement for me but, at this point, everybody thinks that I am so not a threat, I’m so weak in every way and I hope that buys me a few extra days in this game. I’m not too concerned.”

Ironically, the group was talking by the water and we heard Carolyn saying: “Shirin, right?”

Mike said he’d go with the group, Tyler pointed out that he didn’t think she had the idol from the White Collar camp. He added that he saw her scrambling, looking for that idol.

Dan in confessional: “If every camp has an idol, where is White Collar’s? Carolyn and Tyler seem very confident that Shirin does not have the idol probably because she hasn’t said anything about it and I don’t think her game is good enough to keep her mouth shut. I don’t know: Maybe it is. Maybe she’s an idiot savant. I’m leaning more toward the idiot side.”

When Dan mentioned that Carolyn and Tyler were very confident that Shirin didn’t have the idol, I thought he was going to make the connection and say that one of them must have it but he didn’t say anything about that. It doesn’t mean he didn’t think it or even say it later in this confessional but the audience still has to believe that no one thinks Carolyn could have an idol. Didn’t anyone make the connection?

Mike told everyone that Shirin wasn’t going to win anything. He wanted to target one of the three No Collars because they were so tight. Carolyn and Mike both said “Hali” at once.

Next, we had Hali, Jenn and Sierra listening to Shirin complaining about Dan. Hali said that Dan was messed up, that she would trust her kids with Rodney before Dan.

Sierra’s confessional: “Getting rid of Dan would be amazing. He said some very hurtful, unnecessary things for a grown man and I haven’t forgiven him for it. To hear the other people feeling the same way about Dan makes me feel a lot better because it reiterates to me that I’m not crazy. We need another vote. My initial Blue Collar alliance is going to go for a girl but that isn’t what I want to do because I want girls in the end. I have to decide: Do I want to go with the girls or do I want to stick with my Blue Collar alliance?”

The subject of a girls’ alliance was brought up by Sierra.

In confessional, Hali said she liked the dynamics of the girls banding together. She wanted to go after the misogynistic Dan.
Shirin talked to Tyler about eliminating Dan and getting rid of one of Blue collars’ players.

Tyler in confessional: “Some of these guys in my alliance are big threats. I want nothing more than to target Mike and Dan. I’m hoping to strike before Blue Collar knows what hits them.”

Tribal Council

Asked about the tribe’s reaction to the previous Tribal Council, Tyler said that a lot of people were bummed out because Kelly was well liked. He added that lines are blurred that it’s just a big group of Survivors.

Sierra agreed, saying that the line wasn’t completely drawn in the sand at this point. “I can go with whichever alliance I want to.”

That remark worried Mike.

Mike said that he knew 150000 percent what he was doing tonight but that he was sitting with a bunch of gamers. He asked: “Are you going to go with someone who gave you pizza or are you going to go with someone that has been providing the whole time for you?”

Dan said you have to expect the bombs to drop and hope it doesn’t drop on you. He told Jeff his three magic words: “Flippers never win.”

Shirin was quick to point out: “Jeff, that’s flat wrong. Flippers do win. Tony flipped a million times and won epically. It’s like a fear tactic that he is using against his alliance so that nobody will vote against him.”

Asked about Dan’s message, Hali said: “We’re tribe America and if you look at history, what if the colonists never flipped on the greatest Empire in the world?”

Jeff, Jenn and Joe liked that and even Shirin suddenly seemed to like the tribe name.

It was (already) time to vote.

The vote was tight between Dan and Hali but as soon as a fifth vote appeared against the No Collar girl, we knew that no one had flipped. Hali let out a “what the (censored)”. The first juror was caught completely off guard because she wasn’t even carrying her bag.

Jeff sent them back to camp with the following message: “With ten players left, lines drawn in the sand tonight can be washed away by the tides tomorrow.”

The Story

The brevity of the scene that followed the Immunity Challenge, the scrambling scene as I call it, and the very short Tribal Council prove that this is a two person race. Last week, Joe and Mike were on camera when Jeff mentioned that it only took two people to have an epic battle and we can see that this battle is on. The editors spent just enough time on the scramble and we saw just enough of Jeff’s Council to make us think that Dan could be going home but the body of the episode was spent on Joe Outplaying everyone while Mike was Outwitting them. Who will Outlast?

The story has been reduced to this: Mike has the numbers, Joe has the challenge wins. Which will prevail? Mike’s numbers don’t appear to be solid but a lot of that is editing manipulation. Last week, many were quick to say that Mike would pay for testing Will’s trust but the big man voted with the Blue Collars again. Some players have made impressive immunity runs and Joe seems very capable but no one knows when they will be forced to balance on lily pads! Wouldn’t we have seen some great foreshadowing if Shirin were to win the challenge that would send Joe to the jury house?

The Characters

The Bullies

Rodney: Everyone hates Rodney but he is a very dangerous player since he is able to align voters. It seems unlikely that he will call a truce and change his plan of taking over Mike’s leadership position so it will come to a showdown between the two. Rodney is so focused on waiting until Final Seven that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mike getting rid of him at Final 8.

Dan: We saw once more that he can’t control his mouth. He has said some mean and unnecessary things to Sierra before and now he is insulting Shirin to the point where the women considered voting him out. We have to realize that this plan was more than just smoke screen from the editors because Hali was so sure it would work that she didn’t bring her bag to TC. So, either Sierra is a good actress or she truly was going to vote against Dan up to the last moment. The argument between the two Survivor super fans confirmed that Dan doesn’t understand the social game and didn’t change now that he is talking to potential jurors. In fact, he could become so insufferable that he could wind up on the jury himself. He’d become one of those that do nothing but annoy everyone so much that they get voted out, a category that he somehow didn’t mention.

The Goat:

Shirin: It’s not gracious but she is hanging on! Her argument with Dan reminded me of the arguments I’ve had on these boards about this game. “Shininny” said she felt sorry for Dan but her words to Hali, Jenn and Sierra showed that she truly resented him. The problem with Shirin is that Dan isn’t the only one she hates. The reward gave her an occasion to patch things up with Carolyn but she was more interested in bashing her former White Collar ally. It probably would have been useful to count on Carolyn if the women wanted to band together... Just saying. When it came time to find the extra vote, Shirin had to go to Tyler instead. That was never going to work for her.

The Sheeps:

Will: Veni, Vidi, Willy? He came, he saw, he left. That was about the extent of Will’s role in this episode. As soon as the tribe came back to camp, he had a talk with Rodney about being left out of the loop. Satisfied with the explanation, he walked away and wasn’t heard again even if he was part of the reward and held an important vote. This was the episode that finally broke the No Collar group and we didn’t even hear Will’s side. We can say that he falls in Dan’s first category: He does nothing and will get voted out because of it.

Sierra: We see that Sierra could be a player. Her limited social game reduces her options but she can give interesting confessionals where she explores her different options but it seems that those confessionals air only when it’s time to put danger on Mike’s path. She chose to stay with her Blue Collar allies when she eliminated Joaquin so she will stay the course. Voting with the girls would have meant giving the game to Jenn and Hali, if not Joe since they were still very much attached to him.

Tyler: The scene where we heard him revealing everything to Mike about the idol clue showed that Tyler is playing scared. He didn’t want to try anything that could alienate his ally so he spilled the beans. Mike’s tactic of telling everyone that Joe had found an idol was risky when it came to Tyler. We saw how quickly he sided with Carolyn when she told him that she had an idol so he could have explored his new option with Joe, thinking he’d be aligning with another player that has an idol. The problem with Tyler thinking that Joe had the idol is that he’d become too powerful. Joining such a powerful player would be very frightening for Tyler. The safe plan is to eliminate Joe’s allies until the numbers allow for a split vote to flush the idol. Tyler chose, once more, the safe road.

The Fading Players

Carolyn: Sometimes a big participant in the action, Carolyn can also look like just another sheep at times. The best thing about her story is that the others continually skirt around her big secrets. First, everyone talked about the dangers of power couples but no one tied Carolyn to Tyler. Now Dan realized that there had to be an idol in Masaya and that Tyler and Carolyn were very sure that Shirin didn’t have it but he didn’t make the connection that the best way to be sure someone doesn’t have the idol is by knowing who does. There could be a very interesting story to build around Carolyn but it seems that it doesn’t concern the editors very much so we must conclude that she will continue to ebb and flow. We heard her say that Joe’s picks were smart but she wasn’t given the airtime to elaborate. We can assume that she meant Joe realized he needed these people’s votes to advance his own game. What is smart for Joe isn’t smart for Carolyn so she was thinking of her best interest except we don’t hear her talking about her own game. Is it because she is simply going along with Rodney’s plan? If so, then we should have heard her take on Kelly’s elimination and how it affected her game.

Jenn: This episode meant the end of Jenn’s chances of usurping Mike’s winner’s edit. She reverted to the inconsiderate person that we had seen when Nina was still in Nagarote. She may not have cared about Kelly but it wasn’t necessary to hear her gloating over her demise to the point of saying that it was simply done to amuse her. It was also very troubling that we didn’t hear her thoughts about missing the reward. She could have said that Joe was doing his best to gain people to their cause but she was probably angry at being excluded, perhaps even cursing Joe a little. The story has changed now that individual challenges are a factor so Joe is now the main obstacle in front of Mike, not Jenn. He has become the golden boy so there’s no place for Jenn in the main story anymore. The only thing that remains is her exit story and hopefully it will be nicer than what the previews suggests.

The Fighters

Joe: During the pre-merge, Joe was ignored in some key moments so he doesn’t have a traditional winner’s story. However, since his road to victory requires an unprecedented steak of immunity wins, he wouldn’t need a traditional story to become an epic winner. Of course, Joe could also find a way to the end if Rodney votes out Mike but that plan won’t be set in motion as long as Joe is in the game. If Joe keeps up the bluff that Mike imposed on him, he may miss the idol hidden in a hollow which could be his best chance of success.

Mike: This episode tied most of the themes that we had seen in the pre-merge. Mike worked harder, wanted it more, than everybody else. His disheveled look during that memorable confessional showed how demanding the game could be for those who don’t sit around doing nothing. He is getting his hands dirty and he is aware that he faces dangers once Joe leaves. Could it lead to an understanding between the two fighters? I really enjoyed his tactic of telling everyone that Joe had the idol since it practically forced Joe to lay low while getting everyone else to stop the search. The thing we have to remember is that Mike didn’t need to “defy gravity” to find this idol so there has to be another one somewhere under the jungle’s canopy. That idol could change the game but we still have to say that Mike has the story of a Sole Survivor.

Excellent stuff, Michel. I suppose it speaks to the power of ingesting years of your Survivor analyses, but I find myself more or less in full agreement with the way you've parsed the latest episode and how it portends for the various remaining players.

I'm more inclined, then, to muse about what I've gleaned not just from the show itself, but the various interviews and assessments outside - and one of the themes I'm picking up is that Mama C is tight with Rodney, whose obnoxious behaviour seemingly but endears him to her further; and I'm trying to recall her making a confessional or comment that casts Motor Mouth in a bad light, and am failing at such (which doesn't mean it hasn't happened!) This leads me to believe that Rodney and Carolyn's side pact is viewed with more solidity than was apparent from her throwaway comment at the time of its cobbling together, and I'm presuming that Will and Tyler view it as a serious option as well.

From Hali's comments as Ponderosa, she seemed convinced that it was Shirin who betrayed the women's pact and allowed scabrous Dan to escape, meaning that she either (and unbelievably) felt Will had been brought back into the fold, or, more likely, that Sierra held true and it was the White Collar who backstabbed her. That's interesting, and speaks to the generally dismal way in which the No Collars have been able to assess the potential for, and table, alliance propositions that others will want/need to uphold. It's also curious in that Hali admitted that she spent a considerable portion of her social and strategic energies on trying to bring Mike into her alliance, at least in the effort to oust Dan—clearly a key component of the former's power arrangement. Why that would strike her as a likely avenue of collaboration escapes me—but it also makes me wonder if Mike, who clearly has a good relationship with Joe, is maybe poised to try and make an accommodation with at least the challenge stud. More on that below...

The inference I've gathered with Carolyn is that she not only actively dislikes Shirin, but also the No Collar ladies, and presumably it was the presence of these three (now two) that most prevented Joe's very capable reward challenge selectivity to bear any fruit—as least for the nonce. It's curious, because so many seasons feature those challenge winners opting to take along their alliance members, and which leads to much fan grumbling about the strategic failure inherent to such maneuvers—you need to work on the swing votes and bottoms of the dominant power alliance; whereas in this case Joe made the correct and difficult choices, but absolutely nothing was revealed to us as to its potential for present or future success—and not only in that there was zero strategy talk between the foursome, but no hints or rumblings of acceptance or anger on the part of Hali and Jenn back at camp; nor any indications if they used the time to try and work on the likes of Sierra and Mike. That such a well-considered reward selection garnered bupkis is the way of advancing any potential strategy leads me to believe that Carolyn's adamancy in refusing to align with Joe's three ladies left the show editors with no discernible storyline value in the revelation of any of its details.

Which all means that I find myself uncertain as to how the remaining episodes are going to play out in a manner that would uphold Probst's pronounced enthusiasm for this season. Statistically, Joe is doomed: he cannot win a run of seven or so immunity challenges (can he?!) and his edit, apart from his winning qualities, just doesn't seem right to me for someone who makes it to the final stretch. However, I wonder if there is a real possibility for Mike, in uncovering the existence of Rodney's four-pact, expediently using Joe as a vote-buffer/voting partner in a effort to pare down that particular opposition, and finding it's a pairing that has some legs? Or perhaps, if Jenn and Shirin become the next two Ponderosa tenants, Carolyn (and, hence, Tyler) will have no aversion to linking arms with Joe so that, together with Rodney, they can oust Mike, Dan, and Sierra and then, fingers-crossed, cut out the blue-eyed boy ere the final immunity challenge. There must be some way for Joe/Jenn/Shirin to all or in part remain for a spell in the game and as a thorn in the side of the Blue Collar Bloc, but it's tricky to try and envisage its unfolding: Joe's too much of a threat, Jenn is seemingly too strategically apathetic, and Shirin is just too damn chatty and odd for them to have any legs unless they've been pared down to one remaining individual to be used for their vote against the Rodney/Carolyn coalition...

>Which all means that I find
>myself uncertain as to how
>the remaining episodes are going
>to play out in a
>manner that would uphold Probst's
>pronounced enthusiasm for this season.

We saw how Probst described last week's episode as the "best one of the season so far" and it certainly wasn't. I'd be careful about applying anything Probst says at all to this entire season.

We saw how Probst described last week's episode as the "best one of the season so far" and it certainly wasn't. I'd be careful about applying anything Probst says at all to this entire season.

Amen ...

And it seems to me that introducing a major twist after the Jury phase has begun would be grossly unfair to those players voted out post-merge but before its initiation.

So, I'm beginning to think that this second (to the Season's tribal configurations) 'twist' that we've all been awaiting was the fact that the merged players were required to re-construct their habitat (initially, JP did say of it that 'we thought this group could handle it') and it fell so flat that it's being tacitly ignored. And our host can't always be trusted to keep track of what 'twists' have - and haven't - been done before.

Of course, fairness is certainly not a requirement for the Game's manipulations, so we could still see some game-changing innovation.

But, I doubt it.

G

LAST EDITED ON 04-12-15 AT 07:13 PM (EST)

Sierra: We see that Sierra could be a player. Her limited social game reduces her options but she can give interesting confessionals where she explores her different options but it seems that those confessionals air only when it’s time to put danger on Mike’s path. She chose to stay with her Blue Collar allies when she eliminated Joaquin so she will stay the course. Voting with the girls would have meant giving the game to Jenn and Hali, if not Joe since they were still very much attached to him.

It is probably only my imagination, but there seems to me to be a 'Danni' aura about Sierra's edit. She is always quietly there. Intently focused. And her vote has been pivotal on more than one occasion. So, I do wonder if Mike's determination to keep that vote will be his undoing. Because, I think that her allegiance to him is much more a matter of temporary convenience than the product of friendship, comraderie or loyalty. And she has been given ample editorial cover for her betrayal of Rodney and Dan. Actually, also for her betrayal of Mike.

However, unlike Danni, it would seem that Sierra doesn't inspire friendship, comraderie or loyalty. And, at the moment, it is difficult to imagine an F3 contest that she would win.

But, for all of that, I do think that Sierra will be at the end and that, if anyone is responsible for Mike's defeat, it will be the barrel racer.

A note about Joe and the Idol: I think that Mike found the HII in the location described in Joe's clue.

I put together a series of screencaps that show the HII "in a hollow" - of a tree - and wedged upward into the hollow as though it was "defying gravity". And Mike told us that he was going to search "by the river". Too, there does seem to be a "sea" of green ground cover around the site ...

G

LAST EDITED ON 04-13-15 AT 11:53 AM (EST)

Not sure where to post this question, so attempting to here. Have any of the posters been on the show or know someone who has. Just wondering how the finale works.

I moved my question to http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/8316.shtml
Thanks Pepe for the info where to post the question

P.S. Hi, I'm a long time lurker. I've watched Survivor since Season 4 when Neleh from Utah was on.

LAST EDITED ON 04-13-15 AT 11:44 AM (EST)

Welcome, SuperGr0ver!

That is great info, a potentially huge spoiler and thank you for bringing this to our attention.

I think it would be best if you could post the information on this thread here: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/8316.shtml

That would be a better place to put it as this thread is for the editing analysis of the show, so posters here prefer to not know of any spoiler-ish information. If you do put it over on the other thread, you should click on the edit button on your post here and take out the relevant information so people won't be spoiled.

Thanks!

>That would be a better place
>to put it as this
>thread is for the editing
>analysis of the show, so
>posters here prefer to not
>know of any spoiler-ish information.

Thanks Pepe! I lurk a lot and always go to the SurvivorSpoilersForum and look at the threads there. I see posts with things y'all bring over from other forums, but I naively thought that since this thread is on the spoilers forum it was a spoiler thread. I moved my comments. Thanks. I've especially loved reading your posts and tribe's posts over the years!

Hey Michel, I've read your column for a couple seasons. I can't see Mike winning. I gave his edit the benefit of the doubt for the pre-merge episodes, but the last two episodes have confirmed my doubts. Mike's decisions are being repeatedly doubted by the edit usually by Rodney, and his edit leaves gaping holes. A couple examples:

- Mike has been called dumb several times by different people (mostly Rodney), and it never seems to be countered and often seems to be supported. When Rodney has been called dumb, like in Ep 7 with Joe, it is countered immediately with a scene of Rodney stealing Will from the No Collars. In Ep 6 he even tells us that people should not think that he's just a dumb kid.

- Mike and Kelly's alliance came out of no where and when she was booted Mike got zero reflection on supposedly his closest ally. In contrast, Rodney mourned Joaquin and swore revenge. Not only did he not mourn her but he was tagged as being the reason she left at the start of the episode, supported by the scenes of him (incorrectly) not trusting Will in Ep7. In fact Rodney is the one who gets the Kelly confessional, where he blames Mike for her going because Mike targeted Jenn to see if he could trust Will (when he could) by having him vote Hali. Mike is called an idiot redneck and tagged with being responsible for slaying his closest ally.

- Why don't we know Mike's end game plans? By this point we knew that Natalie wanted to go to the end with Missy/Baylor, we knew Tyson wanted to go F3 with Gerv/Monica, we knew Kim, Chelsea, and Sabrina had a F3 solidified, etc. Mike's only end game plan seemed to involve Kelly and she got booted with no insight from him. In fact the only contestant who seems to have mentioned long-term plans seem to be Rodney and Carolyn.

- Mike is being shown completely oblivious to Rodney's plotting against him. Whenever he tries to do "damage control" with Rodney it is usually countered with a Rodney confessional planning Mike and the BC's demise. We even heard Tyler say that he wants to target Mike and Dan.

- Mike's decision to save Joe at the Joaquin vote off is being depicted as an incorrect decision. When Mike says Joe has to go we see Rodney reminding us that Joe should already be gone, which is capped off with Rodney's post-IC confessional about Joe being a golden boy and how Mike's decisions have made this game harder for the Blue Collars.

And this is all post-merge stuff, looking back a lot of his pre-merge stuff has some serious flaws as well.

Hello Big Man and welcome aboard. It's always nice to hear from people who have been reading for a while.

I understand your reservations towards Mike but I'd like to address them:

1) I think all of his dumb moments have been countered. He was first called dumb because he worked too hard. Not only did we hear that Escameca did well pre-merge because of their hard work but Mike himself attributed finding the idol to hard work. Shirin called him an idiot because of "Merica". Hali immediately give it her seal of approval and even Shirin showed she changed her mind about the name when she said "Yeah Merica" during TC. Next, we have Rodney's complaint of keeping Joe over Joaquin. Now that could be Mike's downfall if Joe runs the table BUT keeping Joaquin wouldn't have helped Mike, only the WC and Rodney.

2) I think the recap put it correctly: There was nothing to do against a well played idol. Mike's alliance with Kelly wasn't shown to make us believe that he was in danger. That's a positive, not a negative. As for not reflecting on it, it doesn't worry me at all. We heard him complimenting Jenn on her good play so that's enough. It showed that he was a good sport.

3) I think you are jumping the gun on Mike's Final 3. At this point last season (2nd person out after the merger) Natalie was still playing with Jeremy who was about to be booted. Tyson's connection to Monica was certainly not spelled out when we were at F10. The editors left us in the dark just like Hayden and Ciera. We knew that Kim was close to Chelsea and Sabrina but, in the 2nd episode after the merger, she was still exploring her options. In fact, she hadn't yet exploded the Salani alliance because Mike's boot was done with Troyzan and Jay. She would keep her options open until F5 when we clearly heard that she was was hesitatring between Chels and Sab or Alicia and Christina. She also seriously contemplated booting Sab instead of Kat but couldn't pass up the opportunity that Alicia offered when she said ket had to go.

Mike is a lot like Earl in the sense that he lost an important ally but didn't mourn her just like when Earl lost Erika, Anthony and Michelle. Earl's final 3 deal was also well hidden, his day one alliance with Cassandra and Dre was never mentioned.

4) Mike said that he knew he'd be the targer once Joe is removed so he is aware of Rodney's threat. That's why he wanted the idol.

5) Keeping Joaquin would have been dumb and I think Rodney's alliance with Carolyn and Tyler shows that. The three WC would be extremely powerful if they had Rodney in their pocket. Rocney may grumble but he's the Dumb Player, not Mike.

LAST EDITED ON 04-13-15 AT 09:36 PM (EST)

I've reached the point where I am actively rooting against a Mike win because they have made it so ridiculously obvious with his coronation edit. I think he's playing a good game but I think the editors' love for him is detracting from the rest of the cast. It's a bit much for me. How over-the-top it is gives me a little hope that maybe he's just the Fan Favorite who goes out at F4.

Seems obvious that the Rodney plan isn't going to work, since they've telegraphed a Rodney/Will/Carolyn/Tyler Final 4. I suspect Mike is going to foil his plan either via Jenn/Shirin or his idol.

Joe is toast this week.

Looks like Shirin is definitely going to outlast Dan. You don't put that scene in the show if she doesn't get the last laugh. Kinda got Eliza vibes from her earlier this season, really starting to believe that Shirin is one of the most important characters this season.

Carolyn seems pretty irrelevant these days. The story dictated more Tyler in general, but it was weird how much she was discarded this week.

Think you're still sleeping on or being too critical of Tyler in general. The way he handled the Joe situation on the reward was clever and when things went south, he basically had to tell Mike. He already has his sub-alliance setup, so there's no need to make himself a target from Mike. It's better for Mike to be fat and happy. I didn't think Tyler came off that bad. I think Tyler is someone we are supposed to like, but they're not hitting us over the head with it. Still the Natalie darkhorse of this season.

Sierra is either a useless Jefra-type edit, or just a Final 3 goat at this point.

Ditto Will, although I doubt Final 3 is in the cards.

Jenn is getting a bit of a nihilistic chaotic edit, especially lately, where she just seems content to mess with people's plans. It'll be interesting to see how they handle her misery next week. If they use it as fuel to soften her and make her more sympathetic, we'll talk. The problem with Jenn (from an editing point of view) is that she's not sympathetic enough. Still picking her as the alt pick.

I'm at something like Mike 70%, Jenn 20%, Tyler 10% as my equity pie.

Kinda seeing Joe going this week and then some fireworks next week. I could see Dan going next week (in a 3-3-3 idol flush?), with Shirin getting her revenge, although I don't know how Mike gets out of that pickle. Could very easily be Rodney, though. Seems pretty obvious we're not going to have a straight Pagonging, since the Mike vs. Rodney F7 scenario won't happen.

I have to say only Mike or Carolyn can win. That is evident. Jenn appears to be this season's last juror and one of Mike/Carolyn or Rodney is the first major ax to fall. I think we are seeing one of two things:

Mike wins

Rodney loses to Carolyn.

This could be why Carolyn has had these big episodes in spurts. They don't want the audience to be disappointed if she won like Sophie or Natalie so they have to show her side of some things or maybe the reason Carolyn isn't given full editing credit for a win is because they want to tell Rodney's story more like Coach and Russell.

There's also this possibility with Shirin/Carolyn. Can Shirin get Carolyn out? That would also put a dent in Rodney's plans and change the game.

I wouldn't put Jenn entirely out of the running but she is a dark horse at this point.

If Shirin can stay in it long enough she should get a redemption story out of this. A possible come from behind victory? Not against Mike, certainly.

I'm changing my stance on Dan. I think he is the Missy and Kass of this season. If he was calling the shots like them he'd have more attention. But his pre-swap was similar to Missy's. Carolyn is too off the wall imo to be this season's third place goat. I think her story may be about Shirin also. Once Shirin goes, Carolyn could be done or she could go right before Shirin. I think they finish alongside each other. But Carolyn makes sense for the fifth place type of edit. Shirin makes sense for the sixth as she was a mid bloomer like Jon where she was not important pre-swap then suddenly became important. But they could be flipped around.

My boot order
9-Will
8-Tyler(Shirin's big black x/ fake gunshot aim in the third show)
7-Rodney
6-Shirin or Carolyn
5-Shirin or Carolyn
4-Jenn
3-Sierra
2-Dan(Rodney throwaway vote preventing a unanimous win)
1-Mike

Actually

9-Tyler
8-Will
7-Rodney
6-Shirin or Carolyn
5-Shirin or Carolyn
4-Jenn
3-Sierra
2-Dan
1-Mike

Episode 8 Recap :

- After the merge, Rodney had control of the majority alliance and had a secret alliance with Will, Tyler and Carolyn. Rodney was heard in confessional: “I’m always riding with numbers...Looking beautiful for Rodney.”

- For Joe, it was a different story: His No Collars and Shirin were on the bottom (Jenn was heard saying that her group was staying together) ...and even though he found a clue to a hidden immunity idol, the majority alliance wouldn’t let him out of their sights. Mike’s confessional: “I got to find Joe before he finds the idol so we can send this guy home.”

- But it was Mike who beat him to the punch.

- At Tribal Council, sparks flew between Dan and Shirin. (We saw that it started when Dan said: “Flippers never win.”) But it was Hali who was sent home.

The recap is clear: Rodney is going to win this game. He’s leading the majority alliance and even holds the numbers inside that majority so how could he possibly lose? Well, Shirin gives us the answer: Someone will have to flip against him. And who would that be? The recap doesn’t give the answer to that question but it does tell us who was one step ahead of the immediate threat.

Hope and Despair

Night 22

Shirin was still saying that Dan was wrong. Mike tried to calm things but Dan insisted: “I don’t know how a fan like you doesn’t know the difference between a flip and a blindside. Kass flipped. Sarcastically, Shirin said that he was right.

Actually, Dan has a point. Tony made moves against individuals in his alliance but never flipped to another and he was always able to get back in his own alliance. Maybe it will be this season that will show us that a flipper can win.

Shirin’s confessional: “I am definitely on the wrong side of the numbers but the hope is that Blue Collars will start fracturing sooner rather than later. I still think that I can go to the end but the only way I’m going to get to the end is by taking big risks and the big question is: Are any of them willing to make a move against the others? If they are, I will benefit from that. So, all I can do is shake things up.”

To the tribe, she said she’d vote for Mike if he makes it to the end. Dan said she would definitely be on the jury. She agreed and said her vote would be for Mike.

Rodney gave us an interview: “I don’t agree with Dan when he said that flippers don’t win the game. Flippers win the game at the right time with the proper blindside. They think I am Blue until I die but I ain’t Blue to nobody. I got my boys back home; I don’t need no more friends. What I need is zeros in my bank account. So, guess what? Rodney is going to take down the Blues. Mike, Sierra and Dan, they aren’t going to see it coming. I’m just waiting for my time, waiting for my moment and I’m going to hit them with a Mike Tyson punch.”

Rodney deserves to get zeros in his bank account but, unfortunately, even the first person eliminated gets some money. If, like I suspect, Mike makes a move against Rodney, it will be the guy that has been the bluest of Blue Collars that first flips on the guy that doesn’t consider himself a Blue Collar. Wouldn’t that be ironic? Shirin could be proven right: If Mike is willing to move against Rodney, she will benefit from that and a flipper will win.

While we saw that a storm was approaching, we heard Jenn say that she was stoked about being voted out.

That led to Shirin’s confessional: “Jenn was really close with Hali and now she doesn’t want to be here. I don’t harbor any resentment toward Jenn, wanting to quit this game because I completely understand why she dislikes these people. For selfish reasons, I don’t want Jenn to go because I want to stay in this game and I want to go far. Because of the position that I find myself in right now, I need to prove myself to gain a new alliance.”

Right then, we saw Shirin and Joe standing together just as lightning lit the sky and we heard thunder. A sign of what was to come for Joe because of Shirin’s new alliance.

Day 23

Talking to Mike and Sierra, Shirin said she needed a new option. Mike was willing to entertain the idea of working with her but that he needed to trust her first. His confessional started here and right after we heard him asking Shirin who she would want to eliminate. Without hesitation, she said Carolyn because she had Will, Rodney and Tyler in her pocket. Mike said he saw it as well but he said he would give her a name at Tribal and that he’d want her to write that name down. She said she was in.
Mike’s confessional: “Pulling Shirin in, because no one would think that I would pull her in, is a perfect strategy to get rid of some of these other threats that are in this game. Shirin’s smart enough to realize that there is a group within our group. Well, I see it. You can’t hide: There’s only 10 people here.”
Shirin’s confessional: “The biggest thing right now is to hitch my vote onto somebody else’s game plan and just go along with whatever they say for the next vote. But, once I’m in and once people trust me, maybe I’m not in the driver seat right away but I’m in the passenger seat, back-seat driving.”

That scene probably gave us a sneak peek at our Final Three. With Shirin’s help, Mike and Sierra should wrestle control of the game out of Rodney’s hands. The irony here is that, as soon as the story shows that Mike may get out of one danger, he may find another. Shirin may help him out of Rodney’s trap but she would then become his next threat. One thing players can learn from Mike is that he asked Shirin which player she’d want to see eliminated. Too often, players try to recruit new allies by imposing their target and that rarely works. In this episode, it will become clear that Joe has to go so Shirin will go along but Mike may repay her for that vote by going after Carolyn sooner than we’d expect.

The Reward Challenge

Once more we were not given the opportunity to witness the school yard pick ‘em. It would be much more interesting to see that than most of the stuff we were shown instead. Instead of simply naming the players, Jeff should identify the captains and the order of the picks so that we can get an idea of what the players think.

The Red team had: Joe, Rodney, Will, Jenn and Carolyn.
The Blue team had: Mike, Tyler, Dan, Sierra and Shirin.

Mike and Rodney swam the first leg and both were “giving 100 percent” according to Jeff. Mike took a nice lead by diving off the platform instead of using it as a slide.

Dan and Will followed. Dan took a huge fall on the platform (Ouch!) while Will’s slide looked very awkward. The two made Jeff laugh. Dan kept Blue’s lead.

Tyler and Carolyn followed. Tyler was the first to realize that it was better (and probably a lot less painful) to run over the net crawl than to dive on it. Tyler fell off the balance beam once but Carolyn needed three tries, giving Blue a bigger lead.

Then Sierra went into the water and that lead quickly evaporated, Jenn caught up to her at the balance beam and then overtook her by making it across on her first try.

Dan and Mike’s frustration at Shirin was evident.

With Joe doing the anchor leg, Red finished the race well ahead of the Blue team even if Sierra ran a good leg. She made it across the course before the red team retrieved their first ring.
While Carolyn took over for Joe, Mike got the first ring. Sierra, using her rodeo experience, took over for Mike and got the 2nd ring. From there, Mike took over and gave his team the victory with some nice tosses and with what Jeff described as “an incredible grab” of the last ring.

While the Red team was relishing the idea of eating chocolate, the camera focused on Jenn’s frustration.

Jeff turned to Jenn after Mike had essentially given us a Snickers’ commercial. She told Jeff that she didn’t necessarily want to be there: “This is nothing that most people want. Unless you’ve played this game, you have no idea what this feels like.” Joe shook his head when he heard that: “This is what we signed up for... I’m still happy to be here” he said.

Joe expressed the thoughts of all viewers. Very few will have sympathy for Jenn right now.

Day 23 – The Product Placement Segment

Sierra, like many other beautiful castaways before her, gave us the publicity confessional: “We walked up to a chocolate bar... It was amazing.”

Mike also played the spokesperson’s role: “...it really brought me back to my childhood. It’s really strange out here when you are so deprived of the little amenities how much a (chocolate) bar truly means to you.”

Sierra told the group that she loved every one of them.

That included Dan!

Shirin’s confessional: “I am the luckiest person out here right now considering where I was coming from at the previous Tribal Council to all of a sudden winning this chocolate paradise reward and having a door open strategically with Mike and Sierra. It’s literally night and day. I see the game from a new angle and now I’m charging forward.”

Mike and Sierra were on screen when Shirin said that a door opened for her but there was a clear break in the recording just before “With Mike and Sierra”. It’s not sure that Shirin was that specific during this confessional, the two names seemingly spliced in, but that’s what was important for us to hear. This episode will remind many of Natalie’s late game surge last season. If she manages to break up the Blue tribe, gets rid of her old White Collar tribe mates and makes it to the end with the right combination (Dan and Will maybe?) she would certainly deserve the title. It wouldn’t work if she is there with Mike and Sierra though.

Camp – Day 23

After agreeing to Joe’s suggestion of fried chicken, Rodney had a confessional: “Not winning again. The worst thing I can do is to sulk in another loss and to get mad that I didn’t get a reward. What I need to do is to look at the positive things. We have a chicken here that we are going to eat because my stomach needs to taste something different, other than rice and beans. Jenn doesn’t like killing the chicken because she doesn’t like eating the meat and I guess she wanted them as her little buddies because she lost her buddy Hali and I guess the chickens are her little friends.”

This is trivial but even here Rodney has it upside down. Most people don’t eat meat because they don’t like the idea of killing animals, not the other way around as he put it.

Jenn’s interview: “This would suck less if the people sucked less. No one asked me if we could kill a chicken even if they are pretty much my chickens at this point. They just grabbed one of my chickens and ran off. None of this is fun. I’ve got nothing out here except for despair.”

Once they were eating, Rodney started doing a very good impression of Mike at Tribal, repeating his answers to Jeff. He was so good that everyone, including Jenn laughed when he used a Texan accent to say: “...My name could come up five or six times, Jeff. It could be me going...” They cracked up even more when he switched to a Maine accent to imitate Dan. For a moment, Rodney, chuckling so hard, couldn’t continue but then he said: “Jeff, you got to appreciate good people when you come by them.” Switching back to impersonating Mike, Rodney added: “I agree 110 percent to what Dan said.” Will corrected him: “One hundred and fifty thousand percent!”

Joe’s interview: “I’m here with Rodney and there’s a part of him that doesn’t like Mike. If I can use that to my advantage; absolutely, I’m going to freaking use it! Hopefully, I can work a little magic and stay in the game a little longer.”

The things we can learn through humor. Even if he was mocking him, Rodney gave us a very good indication of Mike’s story: He is in danger but he should be appreciated because he is “good people”. Also, when Joe realized there was a crack between Rodney and Mike, he went to Mike for new hope, not Rodney.

Day 24 – Tree Mail

Joe’s confessional: “Going into the immunity challenge, I feel a ton of pressure. I really have nobody out here but I’m going to give it all I’ve got...”

We saw Joe, Jenn and Shirin doing some stretching exercises.
We, I’m not sure you can call it an exercise in Shirin’s case. It looked more like testing her legs to see if they could hold her!

Jenn’s confessional: “Me, Joe and Shirin are all at the bottom. The more I ask to leave the less likely I am to leave. So, if they are going to plan on keeping me around, I’m going to give them a reason to kick me out.”

To Joe, she said that he should let her win so that she could give him the necklace at Tribal Council because that would be hilarious.

In confessional Joe told us he had doubled his chances of getting immunity since Jenn was set on leaving.

The Immunity Challenge

When Jeff took the necklace from Joe, we heard Carolyn say: “Take it away.”

I guess she won’t make friends with Joe. She was the first to drop put so she didn’t do a thing to take immunity away from Joe. Was it to show that she will be talk but no action?

Jeff really focused on Joe’s problems but he outlasted everyone except Mike, Jenn and Tyler.

The camera showed Rodney when Jeff said “a lot of people would like to see him fail today.” Joe did fall, ending a battle that was epic only in Jeff’s sales pitch.

In the end, Tyler outlasted every one, beating Jenn and thus ending her shot at giving Joe the necklace.

I was a bit surprised to see Dan’s excitement when Jenn lost the block. It was as if he knew about her plan to give the necklace to Joe. Did she advertize it?

Jenn’s confessional: “Is it really sad that I fought so hard in that challenge today so that I could have a ticket out.

Everyone is going to vote for Joe but I really think that I can do something to protect him and screw up everyone else’s game.”

Camp – Day 24

Joe’s confessional: “I lost so I was rooting for Jenn...Go on Jenn, keep going I thought...It didn’t work out...I’m living on the edge again...I’m going to fight to the bitter end.”

We had a nice visual of a fish in a surfer’s position, swimming high on a cresting wave when Joe said “Go on Jenn: Keep going.” In one sense, Jenn, who is our surfer here, will still be going since she wasn’t voted out.

Shirin’s confessional: “Nobody knows the game as well as I do and I’m running the numbers constantly. I figured out this numbers loophole. Because of the immunity idol and because of the way the numbers shake out, with seven people on the Blue Alliance and three people on the outs, the Blue alliance can and will split their votes but if Joe votes for Jenn, there’s a four-four tie between Joe and Jenn. Jenn can’t vote for herself and she’s not going to vote for Joe because she wants to go home. That leaves me as a swing vote to decide between Joe and Jenn going home.”

Joe told Shirin that he had an idol and was planning on playing it but that didn’t prevent Shirin from saying that she could vote for Jenn to get her out. Jenn was all excited to hear that Shirin could vote her out.

Jenn’s confessional: “If Shirin and Joe vote for me, everyone gets screwed over because I keep Joe in the game. It’s sounds pathetic to ask people to vote for you but I don’t care.”

Back in the shelter we heard that the alliance was planning to split the vote. Mike was heard saying it should be 4-3 Joe over Jenn and he asked Tyler if was in agreement.

Mike’s confessional: “The scary thing about splitting the vote is, literally, one person could make the difference in who you wanted to go home and the goat going home. So, I want Shirin to vote Joe tonight in order to get Joe out of this game.”

We then saw pelicans flying over a wave and the sound editor included a very ominous sound effect. Was that to tell us that surfers aren’t safe?!

Mike told Shirin about the plan to split the votes and that she had to vote against Joe if he was going to trust her. Before the end of the scene, he would tell her: “The next vote determines if we go to the Final Four or not.”

By saying that Joe could vote for Jenn, sending her home, Mike blocked any loophole that Shirin thought she could use. Even if she says she knows the game better than everyone else, it was Mike that put her in a zugzwang position. He would later do the same to Joe and his fake idol. The episode showed us that Mike was the best player out there but that he still has dangers in front of him. For one, Shirin may not always be as easily manipulated. Still, it certainly looks like we are headed for an ending that will include Mike, Shirin, Sierra and Dan. Could Jenn still be there to screw that part of the game for Mike? If so, Mike could see his goat, Dan, going to the jury.

Shirin’s confessional: “The thought of voting between Joe and Jenn: On the one hand, I never thought I would be in a position to vote an actual friend of mine out of this game, even though she wants it. I want to respect her wishes and let her leave this game in peace but the opposite point of view is that Joe is a much bigger threat. I am being tested and little does everyone know that I could really rock the vote tonight.”

Joe then revealed to the viewers his plan to make a fake idol. Being a jeweler, he only needed the opportunity and a few items to make a very nice copy.

He found some time alone after going into the jungle to talk with Dan who simply said there was nothing he could do to sway the vote.

Being a jeweler, Joe didn’t find it too difficult to make a presentable fake idol out of the items he has stashed away.
Learning that Dan had let Joe go, Mike went out to look for him saying: “We cannot let him find this idol.” He ran into him before he could get back to camp.

Didn’t Dan get the message that Joe had to be shadowed at all times? The scene reminded me of One World when Chelsea let Jay and Mike walk out of camp alone to discuss the vote. Kim had to save the situation by running after them. In a similar fashion, we saw Mike running after Joe to fix Dan’s mistake.

Joe’s confessional: “The more confusion the better...If no one has found an actual immunity idol then this is sellable.”
Unfortunately, he was talking to Mike who had a real one as comparison.

Joe tried to make a deal: If they sent Jenn home, he would give his idol to Mike. Mike was firm: “I’m going to have the idol before Tribal.”

Why would Mike fall for Joe’s offer? If Joe had a real idol then he could simply play it for himself. That would even be better than giving it to Mike because it would probably go back in play and Joe would have a chance to find it again.

Mike’s confessional: “I have the hidden immunity idol to his clue that he got but if he has a different hidden immunity idol, you give it to me tonight and, you know what? Legitimately, I would switch my vote...maybe!”

Tribal Council

As soon as the tribe took their stumps, we saw Joe leaning over to Mike and say: “Here you go. Good luck, buddy.”

Jeff first addressed Jenn. He didn’t understand her determination at the immunity challenge because he didn’t know if she was enjoying her time or not. He asked: “Can you not want to be here and want to be here?”

She answered with a straight face: “Yes, absolutely.” She pointed out Rodney who she didn’t like but now considers one of the funniest and craziest people she knew. She said it would have been cool to win the necklace. She then said she would have given that necklace to Joe just to see the look on everyone else’s face. “They would all be so pissed."

We saw the look on Mike and Rodney and Dan’s face and none looked pleased even if they were smiling.

Jeff asked why she didn’t just get up and walk off the set.
Jenn said that would be quitting and that she doesn’t quit.

The rattling sound told us that the difference was minor. Most viewers will still see her as a quitter unless she makes a serious rally.

Joe said he was rooting for her because he wanted to be there: “I waited my whole life to be here.”

2nd chance, here he comes!

Joe added: “Someone may want to sit with her at the end because she didn’t even play the game.”

Shirin said she understood Jenn and that she had been able to strategize with her in a way she hadn’t with Joe. She added: “It’s to my benefit to have her stay and to have Joe go because she is a better strategic ally to me. But, the fact that she says she doesn’t want to be here makes her look less threatening; makes them want to keep her over me.”

Maybe Jenn says she wants to go to get away from Shirin!! If it weren’t for her confessionals, we could say that Jenn was using a smart tactic to stay longer.

Jeff was about to send them to vote but Mike had a question: He wanted to know if Jeff could verify that the idol was real.

Jeff said he couldn’t verify that until Mike decided to play it.

Mike said it was the determining factor in someone staying or going home.

Jeff sounded impressed.

We heard Tyler and Rodney’s voting confessionals and they practically said the same thing even if they voted differently!
Tyler voted for Jenn and said: “I have no idea what is going on.”
Rodney voted for Joe: “I have no idea what is going to happen tonight.”

I guess that sums up nicely the two guys abilities in this game!

Mike did play Joe’s idol but he said it was for Will who simply thanked the Texan.

Mike’s smile told us that he expected Jeff to reject the idol but I wonder if it crossed his mind to play it for Joe? It would have been even sweeter, somehow saying “you wanted to buy your life in this game with this, let’s see what it buys.”

In the end, Joe, Carolyn, Tyler and Will voted for Jenn, the Blue Collars and Shirin voted for Joe while Jenn threw her vote away on Dan.

Jenn’s vote proves that she wanted to leave. The 9th parchment that Jeff revealed was a vote for “Joey Amazing”. Joe had to know right then that Mike had voted against him so he looked over at him. Mike’s face said it all: “Got you.”

Joe got up and shook Mike’s hand while Shirin leaned over to Jenn and said: “I still have you.”

Then we heard a loud moan inserted in the melody by the sound editor who was obviously pained to see “Joey Amazing” leave. Another moan was heard when Joe walked off the set.

Jeff said that the vote illustrated a very basic Survivor strategy: “Take out a threat whenever you can. Which means: If you are perceived as a threat, you better watch out.”
Mike was up close and personal when Jeff said the words “If you are perceived as a threat.” The implication is clear: Mike is in danger...but what else is new!

The Story

The episode’s main theme of Hope and Despair was illustrated by the opposite paths that Shirin and Jenn followed. They had lost a close ally but, where Jenn lost all interest in the game, Shirin looked for a new alliance and she found one. By putting so much emphasis on Jenn’s despair, the episode showed that few players were in a position to make decisions. The only recourse Jenn found was to commit Survivor Suicide. Many players are letting the others make all the decisions for them so they could all be seen as goats if they make it to the end. We also saw that Rodney could have played a much better social game if one of his three Cs had stood for “Comical”. But the main development was in showing that Mike was always one step ahead of everyone. Can he keep that pace all the way to the end?

The Characters

The Goats – They are Letting Others Run the Game

Will: Early on, Will made one of the biggest moves of the game and it nearly ended his own game. Since then, he has faded in the background. He hasn’t created any waves and has been friendly enough that his name didn’t come up. It should...soon.

Carolyn: She has received one of the most uneven roles ever: She was the star in a few episodes but was completely neglected in the others. While her alliance and her idol could put her in a position to make decisive moves down the stretch, it seems that her recent downturn could lead to her exit. She is Shirin’s first target and since Mike now owes Shirin, Carolyn could pay for being in Rodney’s group.

Jenn: Her despair came from losing her ally and, with her, any chance of controlling the game. Her rebellious act may have cost her many fans but I think she will get redemption. In this episode where she was treated just like Shawna, some will hope that she turns it around like another of the Amazon’s cute girls, Jenna. I think she will fall somewhere in the middle of those two extremes: She will play a role in future episodes but won’t win. In fact, the main question could soon center on her: Where will Jenn go? Will she side with her new found friend, Rodney, the guy that makes her laugh? Will she strategize with Shirin against Rodney’s group? Will she even still be there to help Shirin turn the tables on Mike? If she had left during this episode, Jenn’s Survivor legacy would have been awful but she was such a fan favorite before this week that I think they let us see her despair because there will be a renewal.

Tyler: In this episode, Tyler was part of the team that won reward and he won the immunity challenge, defeating “Joey Amazing” yet he was totally left in the background. His only brief moment was to let us know that he agreed on the plan to split the votes 4-3 against Joe and Jenn. His Survivor game is much like his role in the NFL: Play for field position. That’s what good punters can do after all. In a defensive struggle, the good punter can gain yards for his team at each change of possession. The problem is that Tyler wasn’t a very good punter! He hasn’t shown much on Survivor either!

Dan: In the strict sense, Dan is right: A true flipper has never won but he probably only considers players like Brandon, Neleh, Shii Ann, Frosti, Cochran and Kass who completely abandoned their original tribe and tried their luck with the opponents. The fact that his opinion is being discussed and opposed by Shirin opens up two possibilities for this season. First, since Dan has been shown to be obnoxious and condescending, Shirin should show him that she is smarter about this game than he is. It could also be telling us that this season will be won by a flipper and since only the Blue Collars have remained loyal, the true flipper can only come from that tribe. So, which one will it be?!

Sierra: She was the first Blue Collar threat to flip and she could still find an advantage in forming a female alliance but this episode showed that she “loves” her Blue team and that she has attached her wagon to Mike’s locomotive. Showing her listening in silence to the vital discussion between Mike and Shirin and using her as the spokesperson during the reward reveals the extent of her role if she makes it to the Final 3: She will look good on the set during the Finale.

The Decision Makers

Rodney: The game should be his since he has the numbers. He is even starting to show his social game so he could be the flipper who becomes Sole Survivor. He even told us that he has no attachment to his Blue Collar tribe so flipping the game should be easy. The problem is that his plan hinges on Final 7 while the game may be turned against him before that. His core group adds up to 4 votes and we now have 9 players so that should alert him. I expect that his group will lose one member this week.

Shirin: Mike said that no one would expect that he could work with Shirin and the opposite is also true. By showing hope and making the decision to work with Mike, Shirin has changed her game and the opinion of many viewers. Her pattern has closely followed Natalie’s last season: Losing her closest ally gave her a new resolve. Can she continue in the path that was laid out before? Natalie’s greatest skill was to wait for the right moment to strike and Shirin expressed the same idea when she talked about doing some back seat driving. The problem is that Mike has shown much more game knowledge than Jon. He won’t be as easily manipulated.

Mike: Many said that we had already seen what would eventually cause Mike’s downfall: Rodney’s confessionals about the stupidity of eliminating Joaquin over Joe meant for many that Mike would pay for it. People will now say that Mike made a mistake in booting Joe since the jeweller was ready to work with him. The funniest thing is that it will be the same people! While he continues to avoid the dangers that are on his path, more are laid in front of him. Adding Shirin to his alliance could be the key to his victory or it could turn into a poisoned gift. It’s so much easier to deal with dumb allies than smart ones. Mike did one thing well when he recruited Shirin and that was asking her for her opinion about the person to eliminate. He should realize that eliminating Carolyn is like killing two birds with one stone: It will rejoice Shirin and hurt Rodney. He should find many other targets that will keep Shirin happy and advance his game. This episode has given us a clear hint that Mike should make the Final Three with Shirin and Sierra where, like Shirin said, he should get the win.

LAST EDITED ON 04-19-15 AT 09:32 PM (EST)

Another great write-up, as usual, Mr. Michel.

That sure was an illuminating episode in terms of the edit, huh? Only, like, half the cast were even in the episode. I can't remember the last time when they had literally half the cast go invisible. I think Tyler winning Immunity, but still not even getting a confessional, says all there is to be said about Tyler's chances. So much for being the darkhorse.

Thought it was a pretty poor episode for Jenn too. I was curious to see how they would handle her despair (maybe making her sympathetic) but I don't see much upside to how she was characterized. She's just kind of checked out, and is only relevant because of her relationship to Shirin, ironically enough. I was thinking about my earlier impressions of her, where she seemed a little Palau Katie or Boston Rob'ish with her confessionals. She might actually be a Final 3 goat.

Mike is sitting pretty as usual. The only thing I didn't like was that Rodney's impressions came off good instead of obnoxious, so it struck me as another seed of dissent (edit-wise). Still hard to argue against the rest of the edit, however.

The main thing I wanted to talk about was Shirin.

Okay, what's the deal with Shirin's edit? Since when is she the main character of the show? Obviously, there's an emphasis on Mike's story still, and Shirin is fitting into his plans. But this past episode, the way they framed it, Shirin was the protagonist of the story. The story was, Shirin needs to save herself and go to Mike. It wasn't, Mike needs more allies and pulled in Shirin. It was told from Shirin's point of view. Shirin gets to make the choice to get rid of Joe. Jenn is only around because Shirin needs her. All of this stuff revolves around Shirin.

Shirin can't win. Everyone hates her.

So why aren't they actually showing it? They were showing it earlier. It still seems to be true. Will is even going to call her out next week. So why don't we get "annoying Shirin whistling" scenes anymore? All we got was an argument with Rodney over deli meats.

She can't win, right? Everyone hates her.

Something's up, and I can't figure it out. You don't give Shirin a godlike edit for no reason. Normally, I would say, duh, she is probably your winner then. But the social dynamics don't make sense where Shirin could win. She would need a very, very specific Final 3 for that to even be viable. Maaaaybe she could win a Shirin/Jenn/Sierra or Shirin/Jenn/Dan kind of combo. But even those would be a pretty big stretch.

My only guess is that we're supposed to root for her because we want to be happy when Rodney/Will/Carolyn/Tyler get supplanted this week. We're not supposed to care about someone like Will, so we won't have any problem when Shirin and Mike turn the tables on him. Ditto for Dan, but that's probably down the road. Maybe the Shirin thing is a little like Missy last season. A player who can't possibly win because of social dynamics, who still somehow gets the kid gloves in the edit.

If Mike doesn't win, who else possibly could? Probably not invisible Carolyn, Tyler, Will, and Sierra. Jenn's nosediving. Rodney and Dan, don't make me laugh. And everyone hates Shirin.

Will looks like he's toast this week, huh? Completely invisible guy shows up as focal point of the previews? Not a pretty combination.

Right now, I think Shirin could simply be another example of post-merge confusion. Look at the pattern up to now: In the merge episode the stars were Mike and Jenn. Then it was Mike and Joe in episode 8 and now, it's Mike and Shirin. Jenn looked like a contender after that big move andJoe looked almost unbeatable before this week. Shirin could simply be the "flavor of the week", the current distraction to make us think Mike won't win. Since she is probably heading for the F3, she may get more "flavorful" as we go along but the edit doesn't forget. Her role during the pre-merge should be telling us that she can't win but we will have to pay more attention to her.

I agree Jenn did not look good. I’ve seen a couple of occasions where she disappointed me & makes me think Jenn’s not the winner. As a young sailing instructor, she likely has a good bit of competitive sailboat racing experience & it would not surprise me to see her become competitive & her winning a few challenges. She’s already got 2 votes on the Jury & seems impressive enough that no one should take her to F3 as a goat.

Everyone goes to Mike: Tyler, Joe & Shirin. Didn’t Carolyn’s F4 commitment come from Mike? Mike seems like not just the winner to us, but respected by the rest of the group, imitations aside. It was interesting when Shirin basically painted a target on Mike announcing she would vote for him as sole survivor.

Shirin I didn’t see as ever being edited as the main character of show. I think it has become consistently the Mike Show. Shirin is not that entertaining, so I can only interpret her as being instrumental in Mike winning, & likely making it a long way in the game. Her being annoying is not the same as her being hated. Dan & Will are not ones we’ve seen any reason to place any faith in their opinions. Both Dan & Will seem to attack her pointlessly. She does come across as a goat to take to the finals, as do Will & Dan.

Carolyn’s edit I find interesting. 1st episode she came across to me as overbearing & very unlikeable. That has disappeared & we’ve seen nothing about how she’s become “Momma C’ to Rodney or otherwise seemingly accepted by Blue Collars. They have shown her smiling & enjoying seeing someone get voted out, not a smile of victory, but one of enjoying seeing someone else's loss & disappointment.

I’m with you on the Will as toast this week! Dan & Rodney’s arrogance is offensive, but Will’s sudden show of arrogance strikes me that he will be the target. He turned on No Collars which may give Mike both Shirin & Jenn’s vote. That should be enough with his, Sierra & Dan’s. Plus, gotta break up that Rodney/Will bro-mance!

I'm not so sure I see it like that.

Mike, Dan, Sierra, and Shirin appear to be a new final four. Jenn is pulled in probably by Shirin unless she doesn't want to work with her.

Well, I think Will & Tyler are not long for this game, & that Rodney & Jenn are on the jury. Likely Dan & Carolyn are jury too, so we may end up close to the same ending from different perspectives!

I was dead on early on about Jenn. She was in deed overnarrating to a early merge boot.

After the second show Rodney was the frontrunner. Then his negative edit the next show took all of that away. I had even had Tyler as a top contender but the excuse is his lack of backstory and not enough screentime consistently. But.....

His confessionals is very game-related, he's also shown constantly being very stalkerish lurking around. He's also shown to have a keen eye based on thinking Dan flipped back. I am wondering if he needs Carolyn to leave to advance his game? He is all game narrative and nothing else.

Carolyn almost went two straight without a confessional but she got one late about possibly playing her idol. But this episode showed she was smarter than people thought. Her move at the auction was true to the character she's been from day 1. She's playing the game hard. But I don't know if I can keep defending her. She is my favorite but she's slipping. Word to Survivor editors, only a few players per season can be fan favorites. If you intend to showcase these players early be consistent with the story. Carolyn may be a victim of the editing this year where they thought she would be a villain/univerally unlikable and Shirin the underdog. But Carolyn is not the villain/univerally unlikable. And thats how you get people that love/hate someone like Shirin. I had Carolyn making final five, now I think she may be the next to go.

Dan is a finalist, no question. No one is wasting a vote on him now. And the very first show gave us this indication. And if you look closer the person who suddenly had a gradual spike in the edit since the merge started without being in complete overkill is Dan, like Jaclyn last year.

Mike is still the winner but its obvious his path is cluttered. Tyler is someone who can win these challenges and if Mike is in the finals with him, it will take Shirin being on the jury to help Mike win. Tyler is also Mike's only threat in the remaining challenges. So Tyler or Shirin has to go before the final three.

Shirin....sigh. Her edit is in high gear right now, and usually that is not a good sign for her chances of making the finals. We don't usually see someone who start to jump up dramatically after the swap sitting at the end. Last year was Jon and later Reed. Cagayan didn't give anyone a boost but the winner who already had a strong edit. Caramoan spiked up Andrea, who went out seventh. Phillipines spiked up Abi-Maria who went out fifth. When her edit slows down, it will be when she's done.

8-Carolyn
7-Will
6-Shirin
5-Rodney
4-Sierra
3-Dan
2-Tyler
1-Mike

or

8-Tyler
7-Will
6-Shirin or Carolyn
5-Carolyn or Shirin
4-Rodney
3-Sierra
2-Dan
1-Mike

Previously :

- Joe, Shirin and Jenn were stuck on the bottom, (Jenn is heard saying: “We’re all f…ed”) against a majority of seven. Next, we had Shirin’s confessional: “The only way I can get to the end is by taking big risks.”

- Shirin had a plan to shake things up. She warned Mike about a secret alliance within the seven. Shirin: “Carolyn’s got Will in her pocket, Rodney, and Tyler’s with them.” This was followed by Mike’s confessional: “Shirin’s smart enough to realize that there is a group within our group. Well I see it.”

- At Tribal Council, it came down to two No Collars; Joe versus Jenn. In the end, they took out Joe, the biggest threat in challenges.

This recap focused the story on Shirin and Mike. Even Rodney was reduced to a member of the majority, having fallen in Carolyn’s pocket. We know that Shirin’s opinion is biased against her White Collar rival but presenting it without any counter point isn’t a good sign for Rodney. The recap is setting the stage for Shirin’s big risks paying off and Mike finding a way out of his dangerous position. The only problem is that this stage has been set for a few episodes now and, since then, nothing has happened. The liquidation of the No Collar core alliance has increased Rodney’s strangle hold on the game and put both Shirin and Mike in a seemingly untenable position.

A Lot of People Suck

Day 25

Rodney was talking to his close allies, saying he had a real solid plan: “We get Mike out right now...He’ll never know it. He’ll be frantic, making moves...”

Behind some bushes, we saw that Mike was listening.

Tyler’s confessional: “We got rid of Joe last night, the biggest threat in the game and right off the bat, Rodney approached me this morning with a new tactic which is: Why don’t we stomp on Mike before he pulls his numbers and his charisma and he jumps on us? Rodney’s idea could be a really good idea.”

To Rodney, he said: “Good thought, pause it and we’ll come back to revisit it.”

Rodney told them: “You’re looking at the final four.”

By including Tyler’s comment that they should revisit this plan, it tells us that Tyler is still too cautious. What was there to revisit? To Rodney, he should have simply said: “Let’s do it” no matter his own apprehensions.

For Mike’s story, I think it’s important to note that the scene included him from the start. As viewers, we saw that Mike knows with certitude so he isn’t simply being paranoid. It could have been presented differently if they wanted us to think of Mike as a frantic player. Instead, like Sandra and Tony before him, we saw that Mike was smart enough to spy on his rivals. His problem will come when he tries to deal with that information.

As for Rodney, we have to say that he was right on the money about Mike making frantic moves but it was because he knew about it. As for his final four, it would be funny if they all wind up on the jury. So, the question is: Was his comment included for its irony or for its accuracy? This episode certainly didn’t alter the course for Rodney’s group.

Mike’s confessional: “I overheard Rodney, Will, Tyler and Mama C. And there’s definitely been a power shift in this game.

Rodney has flipped on the Blue Collars and he is no longer in my alliance. So, I know that they are coming for my head. That’s why I have to start doing a lot of work, starting today.”

So, Mike thinks he hasn’t really started working yet? Despite his gauche approach, we will see that he has energy in reserve. Will that be enough to overcome the alliance of four?

The Survivor Auction

Trader Jeff welcomed the players. Shirin and Jenn were happy to see the auction.

The bidding started on a covered item. Will’s $100 bid was too much for Shirin and Jenn. He received a new twist: An immediate trip back to camp.

Everyone thought he had bought a clue to an immunity idol but, since no one can be sent to Exile Island, production had to think of another way to kick a player out of the bidding. The cameras caught the desired shocked expressions.

Jenn asked Jeff if anyone else would be kicked out, adding that she would not forgive him.

Seeing fried chicken, Shirin immediately bid $300 and no one challenged her. Jeff was surprised (as were all the posters who thought Shirin would be the one smart enough to wait for the advantage.) He said: “It’s the most expensive chicken you ever bought.”

Shirin told Jeff: “I didn’t want to bid for an advantage in this game so, for me, it was just a matter of: Go for it.”

The “sliding trombone” sound effect told us that Shirin’s comment wasn’t very smart. If this decision costs Shirin a place in the final three then it will prove to be the most expensive chicken she ever bought.

Jeff asked Sierra what she thought about what Shirin had said. She answered: “A lot of us feel like we are in danger so I think there are a couple of people who are going to hold out.”

The camera identified those people even before Jeff asked: Dan, who had been nodding his head next to Sierra along with Mike and Carolyn.

When Jeff asked who was holding out, we saw Mike, Dan, Sierra and Carolyn raise their hand.

Sierra either quickly changed her mind or her hand gesture was simply meant to indicate which players were holding out. The first impression was that she intended to hold out but couldn’t.

Mike’s confessional started here but continued over the auction of the next 3 items: “I came into this game knowing that whenever it was Survivor auction time; that I’ll starve today. That is all there is to it. / 1st break / Some if not all of my alliance have flipped on me. / 2nd break / No food in this world is worth what an advantage is worth in this game to me.”

During the first break in Mike’s confessional, we saw Jenn leaping at the opportunity to buy a giant cocktail for $100.

(Tip your bartender!)

During the second break, Sierra bid $100 on a plate of meat and then Rodney bought a nice steak.

The editors were in such a hurry to get to the advantage that we didn’t even hear how much Rodney paid for his steak and glass of wine. That must be a first. We heard Jeff say: “This is what you bought” so the steak had even been a covered item so, after Will’s misadventure, Rodney had to be somewhat bold and he was rewarded with the best item we saw. By fast-forwarding through this, we didn’t share in Rodney’s happy moment. I even noticed that we saw Rodney carrying his tray back to his seat with a big smile when Mike said that food wasn’t worth as much as the advantage. So, instead of feeling happy for Rodney, the montage’s intent was to show that he was dumb.

There are also two more factors of importance to note: Carolyn or Dan had to have equivalent confessionals since no one can doubt that they were as determined as Mike to get that advantage. Why not let us hear their point of view? The simplest answer is that Mike’s point of view was more important than theirs. Even more than Dan’s thoughts who actually got the advantage. The second thing is that we’ve rarely, if ever, heard such a confessional superimposed over a scene that featured Jeff. Mike’s thoughts preceded the auction and then they overshadowed all the action including the show’s star. He wasn’t only narrating the events because, while it told us exactly what was going to happen, it was said from a tactical point of view. We heard that it was Mike’s plan from day one and that he was ready to suffer for this.

Since everyone who wanted food had gotten something (Strangely, we saw that Tyler didn’t have a plate on his lap yet he didn’t bid for the advantage either.) Jeff tempted them with something else: Letters from home. Immediately, Dan broke down and started crying. We’d learn that his wedding anniversary had been on day 2. Shirin knew another loophole: She said that Jeff always let the other players get their letter for the same amount as the winning bid. Jenn said: “Someone just do 20 bucks.” Sierra was the first and no one challenged her. Carolyn turned to Mike and Dan, saying that they should all put $20 so they’d still have the same amount left. Dan and Mike agreed with everyone else.

Well, Shirin and Jenn broke that for future players. The rules will have to be changed.

When it was his turn to hand the money to Jeff, Mike let Dan go in front of him, saying: “I’m going to go. Why would I displace trust?” And then Mike went back to his seat without giving his money.

Everyone, including Jeff, was shocked and we went to commercial break.

What a contemptible move. The worst is that Mike knew exactly what he was doing but this isn’t a way to outwit the others. He knew he’d lose trust and trust is the most important thing in this game. This single action could cost him the game.

Back from break, Carolyn said it was BS so she wanted to give her letter back. Dan added: “So much for your trust Mike.”

It was interesting that we didn’t hear if Jeff was going to give her money back or if he was going to say that all sales were final. I wouldn’t be surprised if he said exactly that, escalating the fight between Mike and the others. Instead, it simply came down to Mike’s conscience. Will his change of heart be enough to repair the grave act?

Mike realized he had made a mistake so he paid up and said: “I can’t do it...That wouldn’t go with my conscience. That goes against who I am as a person.”

Jeff finally brought out the advantage so all three paid $480 for the privilege to draw rocks.

Showing once more that Jenn wasn’t taking the game seriously, we saw (and heard) her taking a big sip of her drink which seemed more interesting than watching this crucial moment in the game.

Dan won.

Dan’s confessional: “I told Mike; go before me. He turned around, went back and it broke my heart and he might have just lost my trust.”

This tells us the gravity of Mike’s dickhead move. It put him behind the eight ball, snookered.

Camp – Day 25

Will’s confessional: “I’m so upset...I was devastated. I’m walking back to camp and, Oh! my God! There’s a clue for me. Wow! I just got a map...it has an X and it says “dig”. They are getting burgers and fries but maybe I got something better. It’s shocking how this game can change in your favor just like that. I thought it was the worst day ever but this could be huge for me... It’s a big box...You bought yourself a personal stash of rations... Mama says it’s better to give than receive so I’m going to take this back to the tribe. Even though these snacks are for me, we’ve all been out here for 25 days. Everybody is starving so I’m going to go ahead and share. Maybe this will give me some brownie points when someone wants to vote me out. I don’t know but I think it’s going to be a nice gesture when they see that there are no hard feelings.”

When the tribe came back, Will showed them the note first and then the snacks.

Before we comment on Will’s gesture, let’s wait for the next change in the game. There are no nice gestures with these people.
This is when Mike decided to tell Sierra that Rodney had flipped and that was why he almost didn’t buy his letter.

Mike in confessional: “I screwed up big time at the auction but I know that there was an alliance formed that was coming for me and I’m not going to just sit there and watch it. If I don’t out this alliance immediately, Dan, Sierra and myself are going home.”

At least, we are clearly told that Mike knows he screwed up. Within the story, this is often enough to salvage a dumb move but Mike will soon compound his mistake.

After warning Dan about what he was going to do, Mike confronted everyone, saying they had flipped Rodney. He pointed to the four that were gunning for him: Tyler, Carolyn, Will and Rodney. He said he overheard conversations and added: “Flippers never win. Great game Rodney: He flipped.”

Rodney exploded: “You’re still here so who did I flip on? You are making yourself an idiot. We all got our love letters... and you are bringing the moment down because you are going nuts. You better relax.”

Sierra’s confessional: “When we get back from the reward, Mike is telling me that there are four against me and Dan. Rodney’s flipped on the Blue Collars. Mike feels the urge to let it all out. This is a symptom of being exhausted and paranoia and he had the worst timing ever. We have letters from our loved ones. We just want to sit down and read them.”

It’s hard to get someone to trust you if they think you are being paranoid. Mike will have an uphill battle to fight to regain Sierra’s vote.

She told everyone that she was going to read her letter and Rodney told her to go ahead.

Everyone followed suit and they were all smiling, laughing and crying at the same time. All except for Mike who stood up and apologized for bringing all that up.

Mike’s confessional: “I just outed the alliance that was trying to get me out today and now they are all mad at me because I ruined the moment for everybody but this is a game and I’m here to win. Hopefully, my strategy works. It may not but at least it’s out in the open.”

When Mike said he was there to win, we saw Dan putting down his letter, overcome by emotions. That was telling us that there is more than a game going on. This whole episode could be telling us why Mike is going to lose.

Rodney’s confessional: “What Mike was saying was true but I have to use it to my advantage so I’m going out to what I need now which is Dan’s vote. If this wasn’t Survivor, I’d go tip, top, toes with Mike and battle it out with him like real men do in the streets but this is Survivor and I just got to beat him with my mind. I got to beat him with my wit and because of what he’s done, he made my job easy.”

Catching Dan at his weakest moment, Rodney hugged him, said he loved him and, talking about Mike, he wondered what was “his problem” adding: “it was so uncalled for. He almost didn’t let you get this experience.”

Dan said that Mike was going over the deep end.

Being perceived as crazy is another thing that will make it hard for Mike to regain trust. Rodney’s slimy confessional shows us all the problems that Mike created for himself. I have to ask though: Does it make you a “real” man if you fight in the streets like an alley cat? Rodney’s crudeness may appeal to his boys back home but it paints him as the antagonist even as the bully despite his good game move. He can’t be our hero, can he?

Dan’s confessional: “Mike took a really nice moment and ruined it and that hurt me because Mike is my friend but he is convinced that Rodney has flipped which now puts Mike, myself and Sierra on the bottom end of the food chain. Who’s right? I don’t know.” That’s when he read what $480 bought him. The case held a blank parchment which he could use during Tribal Council, giving him an extra vote. He explained: “I couldn’t have imagined this in my wildest dreams. I was expecting an advantage in the next immunity challenge but to get a second vote? Do you have any ideas what this means to me? (End of democracy maybe?!) It’s like the Willy Wonka golden ticket!”

Either some of Dan’s words were cut or he was told to mention only an advantage in the next immunity challenge because I can’t believe he would have been so determined to sacrifice food just for an advantage in a challenge. For three reasons, he had to think it was a clue to an immunity idol, maybe even a super idol. First, Dan didn’t need immunity. Also, having food to eat is in itself an advantage for the next challenge. Then, considering his athletic deficiencies, why would Dan think an advantage would be enough for him to win? I think production wanted to have many players going for the advantage to show the drama of the stone draw so Jeff must have said that it wasn’t just a little advantage but something really, really big. The editors aren’t the only ones that manipulate “reality”.

Day 26

Lying close to Jenn, Mike was questioning Will’s nice gesture: “He said he had to dig down, open this box and there was all kind of stuff in it and he brought it back to camp. Well, where is the box?”

With Shirin joining them, Jenn said that she thought there was more food than Will was saying.

Mike’s confessional: “Supposedly, Will shared all the food with us, these rations that were supposed to last him until the end of the game which is a little suspect to me.”

Back in camp, Jenn wondered aloud about Will’s hidden food. She said: “Will has a ton more food...He just gave us the (blank) that he doesn’t like.”

Tyler then told Will about Jenn’s suspicion, calling it rumors that were being spread by everybody. Will asked who and Tyler told him it was Shirin, Jenn and Mike.

Will’s confessional: “I just heard that those three are saying that I am lying, that there is more food and that I’m hiding it which is a crock. I’m already on nine because I didn’t get a letter from my family but, when I do a generous act and you question that and you question my integrity. Oh! it’s on!”
He showed Sierra and Rodney the empty box and then brought it back to camp where only Shirin was present to suffer his wrath.
Shirin’s confessional: “Will came back to camp, freaking out. Mike was missing, Jenn was missing and Will just starts tearing into me like a crazy person.”

Rodney joined in, ordering Shirin to keep her mouth shut if she wanted to stay longer. That’s when Mike walked back in camp and put out his hand to tell Shirin to walk away, telling her: “You’re not gonna sit here and get attacked.”

Will continued to attack Shirin, saying she had no one who liked her back home.

From what we saw, Will acted like a coward only attacking Shirin and not saying a word to Mike. Even when Mike said to stop the personal attacks, Will said he could say what he wanted and that he wasn’t talking to him. He did tell Shirin to “go with your ##### Mike” but he didn’t repeat that when Mike asked what he had said. The important point was that the scene made Will look exactly like a male molester, attacking only the weak. By association, Rodney’s words didn’t make him look much better while the others appeared more like interested spectators than innocent bystanders. Bring on the popcorn? I think I need disinfectant instead.

Shirin’s confessional continued: “Then he continued digging in with the personal attacks. Having grown up being torn apart by domestic violence and then verbally assaulted my entire childhood; I get worked up about it. I think the worst part is that, other than Mike, everyone is just sitting there like smiling and being like: “This is fun, isn’t it. To allow that to happen...it’s disgusting.”

What would be really disgusting is if production forced Shirin and Mike to stay in camp to prolong the fight. It seemed that both were determined to leave right away but they stayed. Why if not because of some production edict?

Tyler and Rodney were shown individually when Shirin mentioned those that were having fun with Will’s tirade. The clear intent is for us to be disgusted by those two also.

Finding Jenn in an alcove by the ocean, Shirin told her what happened. Jenn couldn’t understand why it was getting so personal. Mike confirmed that it was brutal and that it wasn’t right.

Jenn’s confessional: “The last couple of days, I didn’t want to be here but those people suck so bad (Will and Rodney are on camera at this point) I think I will stick around just so I can f... up their game.”

If this confessional is Jenn’s legacy in the game then it is very possible that Rodney’s group makes it to the end. The only way now that she can mess with their game is by voting against them and the only two that weren’t part of this disgusting display were Carolyn and Dan so she’d vote for one of them instead of Will, Rodney, Tyler or even Sierra. We have to remember that Shirin said Mike and Jenn weren’t present so it’s possible that Carolyn and Dan were there but that the editors protected them from being seen as letting it happen.

After giving Shirin the hug she wanted, Mike had a confessional: “At this point, me, Shirin and Jenn, we only have each other but we’re still in this game and I’m going to keep working every angle I can until either something breaks or I go home.”

Well, now that Jenn is out, can the other two last very long? In the upcoming TC, Mike will be voting against Jenn so maybe that was the angle he found. It would prove to Dan that he was still with him since Jenn was their target before this week. For one thing, this confessional was nicely placed right before the immunity challenge that Mike really needed to win.

The Immunity Challenge

Before the challenge started, Will told Jeff he wasn’t doing well. He asked if he could sit out the challenge, giving up a chance at immunity so that he could get his letter from home.
Jeff told him that everyone would have to agree to it before he could give him his letter.

Asked for a show of hand, no one objected...except Shirin. She told Jeff: “That’s the way the game works.”

Looking at Will’s track record and his position in the game, we can say that he wasn’t giving up much for that letter. He probably wouldn’t have bet that $20 on himself anyway! On the other hand, Shirin wasted a chance to be generous.

I’d also like to comment on Jeff who probably knew exactly what was going to happen. He could have helped smooth things over but I bet he relished this open animosity. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he set it up. At the auction, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that someone offered to pay for Will’s letter and that Jeff refused because of the no sharing of items rule. Maybe the idea of giving up immunity came right there: Jeff could have told everyone that Will would have his letter if he sat out of the challenge and they agreed to let him have it. He presented it as being fair and preserving the integrity of the game but it looked more like a way to create drama.

Tyler had the early lead but Mike was close behind.

Jeff’s comment was interesting: “Dan dropped. He was all the way to the end.” Dan? Out at final four?

Another: “Mike’s got it figured out now.”

Mike took the lead when Tyler failed on his second trip. Mike kept his one ball advantage to the end.

When Jeff declared the winner, we saw Rodney’s mouth being blurred to hide the obscenity he let out. Jenn had the best reaction: “Yeah! Mike! No one else get too excited.”

Mike thanked Jenn and hugged Sierra saying: “I needed it”.

He said the same thing when Jeff handed him the necklace under Rodney’s somber gaze.

Before going back to camp, Will told Jeff: “Bring the popcorn baby! It’s going to be the best tribal ever.”

Another one who is all hype and nothing to show for it!

Rodney’s confessional: “One of the worst things that could happen is that Mike won immunity. My game has taken a huge hit. This camp has turned into a damned circus and, no matter what happens, tribal is not going to go exactly how we wanted it to go.”

Day 27

Mike’s confessional: “When you win immunity, you do the happy dance...It felt amazing and it could not have come at a better time in this game because I was 100 percent on the chopping block tonight.”

Despondently, Will and Rodney talked about the vote. Will didn’t want to vote out Shirin because he wanted to make her life miserable. Jenn was the bigger challenge threat, he said.

Will’s confessional: “Tonight is going to be a very important tribal because we need to break up those three. Personally, I would like to vote out Shirin. She just has no soul, no worth, no nothing but Jenn? She’s good at challenges so she’s got to go.”

Rodney was shown laughing right then as if he was approving Will’s words that made him sound like he was living in the XVIIth century.

To Sierra and Dan, Rodney and Carolyn explained Survivor 101: They would split the votes 3-3 between Shirin and Jenn. Carolyn added: “We got six strong. They can’t win.”

Right then, we had a close-up of Tyler dubious expression. Was it telling us that they could win?!

Mike asked Jenn and Shirin if they wanted to see Tyler or Mama C go. Jenn said it should be Carolyn because she didn’t like her. Shirin agreed.

So much for Jenn voting for Carolyn in the end!

Mike was 99% sure that Sierra had turned because she wasn’t even looking at him but he wasn’t so sure about Dan. If they had him, they could blindside Mama C.

Jenn’s confessional told us that she thought Dan was as dumb as a box of rocks. “My entire game,” she said, “is in dumbass’ hands.”

Mike had a talk with Dan: “Brother, man: Those four, you can’t tell me that you don’t see them as tight.”

Dan replied: “I can tell you that I saw us all as tight. All of us have talked about final 5, 4 and 3. All of us have. We are all looking at the end game. It doesn’t mean they are going to make the move early.”

In camp, Carolyn wondered if they had gotten to Dan. Rodney was confident: “They don’t got Dan.”

Mike was telling Dan: “I understand that I put you in this position. I understand that.”

Dan replied: “But you’ve aligned yourself (with Jenn and Shirin)”
Mike: “I had no choice to align myself but you and Sierra are the only two that I have given my word on I want to go to the final three with and I would still honor that one million percent because we are blue strong. I’ve been blue, blue, blue since day one.”

Carolyn’s confessional was inserted here: “At this point, I’m like: Is Dan in? Is Dan out? Dan has not proven to be that smart in this game but I do have my idol and if Mike gets to him I might have to use it.”

Mike asked Dan: “Who do you trust in this game? Rodney who is all of a sudden everybody’s best friend now? Who, you yourself have said, is the most despicable, vulgar and foul human being that you ever met. And Will, attacking a 29 year old woman, coming into camp calling me a #####. I have your back, they don’t have your back, Dan. They are using you. You and me built this camp that we’re living in with our bare hands. I’ve sweated and I’ve bled with you in these trenches. Danno, you do you trust? Who has developed trust with you?”

We didn’t hear Dan’s answer.

Mike’s confessional: “I gave it my best shot. I don’t know if he’ll come around to my way of thinking or not. I would like to think that deep down in his heart of hearts, Dan still wants to work with me.”

Dan’s confessional: “It could be that Mike is right. The four of them are about to sell us down the river. Or maybe he’s lost his mind and what obsesses me the most is that I am the swing vote tonight which is my worst nightmare.”

With Sierra and Carolyn listening, Tyler told Dan that everyone was questioning him.

Dan told everyone that he had enough playing games: “If I go with them, that’s my choice. I make my own destiny. Nobody dictates my future but me.”

Dan’s confessional: “If I go against Mike and I’m wrong, I’ll never forgive myself but you have to try to put your emotions aside because it’s a game. Either way, I am about to make a million dollar decision or a million dollar mistake.”

I wonder if Dan really decided. With this vote against Jenn, he could have been using Mike’s tactic of testing him. Dan’s main hesitation was caused by Mike’s alignment with Shirin and Jenn so maybe he asked Mike to prove that he was still going with the Blues to the end. Since it should be even easier for a “strong six” to split the vote against only two opponents, it’s possible that Dan could go back with Mike without using his second vote but that would require getting Sierra back on their side.

Tribal Council

Will explained why he exploded, mocking Mike along the way.

Shirin said he went too far, attacking her personally which Will denied.

Jeff let her explain and Will deny.

Jeff let a whole slew of people watch as if it was entertainment.

Sierra said: “Jeff, we are worlds apart. You can completely forget how this game started because we are nine individuals who are deprived, starving and want a million dollars. We are all fighting for ourselves at this point.”

Dan said it would be very tough to vote against a Blue Collar that it’s impossible to put your emotions aside.

Tyler was troubled by that comment while Rodney dismissed it.

Mike told Jeff that these people see him as a massive threat. He added: “There is a four core alliance right now: Rodney, Mama C., Tyler and Will. Those four will walk to the end of this game. Sierra, Dan? You two are going home 5th and 6th.”
Sierra didn’t appear to buy that.

It was Rodney’s turn to explode: “This maniac, at the auction, almost made it so Dan, Tyler and Carolyn couldn’t get their love letter because he took his twenty dollars back. Then, when we were about to open our letters, this dude comes up and says: You are in an alliance... This dude just went off in a manic state so that’s why he is on the chopping block so I don’t care what he has to say no more. I was going to keep it cool but I’ll come at you with facts. Everybody is nodding because they know it’s real.”

Jeff, at first, could only say: “wow!” Then he turned to Shirin, asking if she expected to get votes.

She explained that the votes would be split between her and Jenn. She said it wasn’t 6 versus three but 4 plus 2 versus three.

Carolyn’s expression told us she wanted Shirin to shut up.

Carolyn talked about being six strong and that it was a no-brainer to pick out those that weren’t part of the six.

I wonder if she ever talked to Dan and Sierra before they were made part of that “strong six”!

Dan said he was listening and weighing his options because it wasn’t just about getting to the end of the game but how you get there and who you put over there.

It was time to vote.

No Idols were played and Dan didn’t use his extra vote.

In the end, Jenn was voted out 5-3-1 with Mike and Shirin both voting against her while she voted for Carolyn.

After hugging Shirin, Jenn told everyone to play nice.

Colleen tried that 15 years ago and these people are well beyond that.

Jeff sent them back to camp after saying: “The good news is: You made it this far. The bad news is: You are left with 8 people who want it so badly they will stop at nothing to win.”

The Story

This had to be one of the ugliest episodes ever. I think I’d put it alongside the All-Stars episode where Sue quit, Ted and Ghandia’s altercation and the Brandon-Philip confrontation. In fact, it was more what I’d expect if I ever watched Jerry Springer instead of Jeff Probst’s Survivor. At the reward challenge and at Tribal Council, Jeff acted like those garbage-TV hosts that only care about drama. He saw Shirin’s injury and he acted just like the others in camp by not putting a stop to it. Instead he reopened the wound, scratched it hard and forced us to watch it fester.

Rarely have we seen a group of people that hate each other so much. Usually the hatred is directed at one person in particular but, much like Thailand and Guatemala, most of these people hate each other. Those two seasons had funny characters to offset most of the negativity. In Guatemala, we even had Rafe who, with Danni’s help, destroyed the “axis of evil” but there is no one like Rafe inside Rodney’s alliance and no one like Danni on the opposite side either. We hear that these players are game savvy and will do anything to win but we keep waiting to see something happen. Instead, we are left with Survivor 101. Pop, pop, pop: Three No Collars eliminated in quick succession. We even heard Jenn say that she wanted to screw with their games and the only way she can do that now is by voting against the people she hates the most. Is that our program?

The Characters

The “Strong Six”, also known as the Ones that Suck

Will: Watching this episode, it felt strange that I used to think Will would be voted out because he was too likable. While he had reasons to be upset that his nice gesture was perceived as an attempt to deceive, he went way overboard in defending his integrity. The sad fact of this game is that he may have increased his chances of making the end game because he certainly scored some brownie points in the goat department.

Rodney: While we knew he was a hothead, we had never heard that Dan saw him as the “most despicable, vulgar and foul human being that he ever met.” Mike had to be quoting Dan verbatim since he was trying to convince him that he couldn’t work with Rodney. Rodney’s words during the fight between Will and Shirin showed his true colors. The only thing funny about Rodney is that, after being unable to beat Joe in immunity challenges, he was equally inept against Mike. Maybe he sees them as threats only because this supposedly strong, proud man is a choker, a loser.

Tyler: While he didn’t say anything, his smiles and his posture during the fight showed that he was one of those that enjoyed the vulgar “entertainment”. We also saw that he held out at the auction for some reason but his explanation didn’t merit airtime. Even without this, his cautious game play is highlighted in such a way that he would make a very unsatisfactory winner. It would have been so easy to remove the “pause it and we’ll revisit it later” to leave us with a more forceful impression.

Sierra: She blindly followed Rodney because of Mike’s actions. Contrary to Dan, she didn’t even seem to question the fact that she was being used. Sitting right next to Shirin, she was in the best position to tell Will to cool it but she was one of those that were shown enjoying the scene. It’s hard to believe that she would abandon Mike to join people that hardly talked about the game with her. Suddenly, they just happened to consider her part of the “strong six”. She should realize it’s too good to be true.

Carolyn: At least she wasn’t shown when Will and Rodney were bashing Shirin but she was still the one that Jenn hated the most. If the game continues rectilinearly as it has for the last three weeks, then she’s the only one of Rodney’s four that could win. She certainly looks less slimy to us than any in Rodney’s final four but we can’t say that we have been following her story. What case would she present to the jury? They wouldn’t care that she got rid of So and Max and now she is simply following Rodney’s lead and isn’t even liked by the jurors.

Dan: Maybe he didn’t want to be the swing vote but it gave him his best episode of the season. We saw his determination to get the advantage and he had a good moment with the love letters, telling us about his wedding anniversary. He explained why he had trust issues with Mike but he wasn’t completely blind to Rodney’s manipulation. Whether the six stick together or Mike and Shirin find a way to change the game, Dan could wiggle his way to the end. Like Carolyn, he wasn’t seen taking part in the distasteful scene. If we had a way of knowing that one of the two was actually present but kept intentionally off camera, then we could make a good case for them. The problem is that Dan looked very bad before this week. We can’t simply erase that. In one word, Dan is uncouth. There are no subtleties about Dan’s role in this story: He is made of one block and will not bow to anyone which makes it impossible for him to play this social game. Even when Tyler confronted him, when he had probably already decided to eliminate Jenn, he still had to bark, still had to assert his independence.

The Targets - They seem to have everyone against them:

Shirin: The victim of Will’s bullying, she missed an opportunity to bring some peace to camp when she refused to let Will have his letter. Her objection was understandable but counter-productive. It was part of the game she said but showing compassion is also part of the game. The story has prepared us to see people flipping, told us that these players are individuals that will do anything to get to the end. If all that build-up isn’t simply a smoke screen then Shirin may still make it to the end but will she get enough votes? To her credit, she already has two, maybe three votes in her purse and Mike could also vote for her but she is unlikely to make the end game if he winds up on the jury. Just like we did for Dan, we cannot forget her earlier portrayal. Shirin was the laughingstock of the whole tribe and the audience so she would make for a weird winner.

Mike: When he heard the four conspirators, Mike had better ways to use the knowledge. He could have simply informed Dan and Sierra about it and told one of them to talk to Rodney about his thoughts on the next vote, hinting that they were entertaining the idea of eliminating Mike. Rodney needed a fifth vote so he likely would have made the offer that would have proven his disloyalty. He could also have made it less personal: Since Rodney only had four voters; he could have gathered Jenn, Shirin, Dan and Sierra and simply voted out one of Rodney’s minions just like he did with Joaquin. It would have been so easy.

Mike’s accusation against the alliance in front of everyone was asking for trouble. If that had been his only mistake, he could have recovered but his stupid move at the auction made it much worse. In public, one has to be honest when it comes to tactics. If he really wanted the advantage, he should have directly told them that he wasn’t going for the letters. That would have forced Dan and Carolyn to decide what they wanted to do but no one would have questioned Mike’s honesty.

So, is Mike finished? From a game perspective, most will say he doesn’t stand a chance but the story is still being told from his perspective. Even when he acted like a maniac, we knew why, we heard his reasons, felt his dilemma and even heard his apologies. The auction’s presentation was done in an unprecedented way to make sure we saw it through Mike’s eyes.

His long talk with Dan was very touching so it would be surprising for two friends not to get back together. From episode one, they have been the most important tandem and could still be our "hero" and his "sidekick".

The vote against Jenn presented a marvelous opportunity for the editors to leave us in suspense but I have a feeling that Mike went along to prove his loyalty to Dan. Now, Mike has three more days to show Dan and Sierra that they are indeed outside of the core alliance of four. From our vantage point, Will, Carolyn and Tyler have not talked much about strategy with the other two Blue Collars. Also, Rodney doesn’t hide how close he is to his true allies, always sitting next to Will and Carolyn. Even Tyler should be able to see that he is the expendable 4th but in his case that’s only one challenge win away from the goal. It should be easy to show Dan and Sierra that the six are strong only until Mike leaves. With his additional vote, Dan should do the math and realize that he is much better with Mike, Shirin and Sierra than inside Rodney’s six.

Like Jenn, Mike’s whole game rests in dumbass’ hands. Unlike Jenn, he also needs Dan to convince Sierra to follow him back to Mike’s side. Is this still the predictable outcome that some have mentioned?! I’m guessing some people have jumped off Mike’s bandwagon but I still see him as the winner.

In reality, I’m not sure there is even a palatable winner at this time and I am fully aware that this season could continue to belong to people that suck but I still believe in Mike’s hard work.

I still have that comment about Probst saying we'll have the most satisfying winner. The only satisfying winner at this point is Mike. I could see Tyler, but he's not getting the edit. Is Probst thinking Rodney? Is Probst just talking out of his butt?

Then you've got the social media posts with Tyler, Sierra, Dan & Mike hanging with each other. Heck, Mike seems to be hanging out with Jenn and Joe too. I wonder if final 3 will be Rodney, Will, & Shirin. Could Shirin be the satisfying winner?

I shutter at the thought. I don't want to be right.

Jeff used an even more positive phrase than "satisfying, Jeff said "favorite winners of all time"

http://parade.com/377745/joshwigler/jeff-probst-digs-deep-into-survivor-worlds-apart-the-30th-season-of-the-hit-reality-series/

"but it would not surprise me if the winner of Season 30 became one of the favorite winners of all time. I do think when this season is over, the audience will feel that whoever has won has absolutely earned it, and this is a very good season of Survivor played very hard by very good players. That’s why I like this group. They play. There is no monkeying around. There won’t be anyone saying, “Well, there wasn’t really any strategy this year…” No. There’s strategy from the get go."

You have Jeff's take and then you have Jenn's: "It's probably one of the most un-strategic seasons I've ever seen."

Jeff is a salesman, Jenn lived it so which should we believe? I limit myself to what I see and this season stinks even compared to BvW II.

LAST EDITED ON 04-25-15 AT 07:39 PM (EST)

Shirin was the laughingstock of the whole tribe and the audience so she would make for a weird winner.

Agree. But this is why I'm rooting for a Shirin win at this point. Shirin winning would be amazing. It would be akin to Kathy coming back and winning Marquesas, that's how amazing the story would be.

The thing that gives me pause is that I don't know if I can give Survivor enough credit to craft a nuanced story like Shirin if she wins. The show is good at telling stories in general, but when it comes to their winners, they have a track record for telling the most simple story possible. If there's anything they don't like, they'll just sweep it under the rug. They don't usually give the audience the credit to say, wow, the winner isn't perfect but they sure turned it around!

I am going to be really ticked off if Mike or Shirin doesn't win, because it's just plain bad storytelling if they don't. It would be Jenna winning Amazon again. It's like, what the heck are you doing, editors? Why are you dragging your winner through the mud during the Will/Shirin feud? I talked about a more complex edit being nice, so they don't necessarily have to make the winner look golden in this situation. Maybe just have them comment about at the macro level using generalities. But, given what they showed us, it seems pretty clear to me that we're not supposed to be sympathetic to the 4 + 2.

Mike or Shirin basically have to turn it around at this point, because the editors can't be this incompetent.

Shirin has made an amazing turnaround going from the Girl From Planet Weird to a determined underdog to now a sympathetic character. It is the one remaining bright bit of storytelling in a season that has just gotten progressively uglier.

Mike is now an underdog, he has starting making some poor decisions, yet before this he was edited as one of the most game savvy players ever. Sure, the game is designed to get the players unhinged if possible, but I do not know how they can justify that previous edit unless he somehow gets it together again.

Other than those two, Carolyn is the only other one who seems capable of winning, though she is a hard-ass. Rodney is a big city punk, Dan is a pathetic chauvinist, Will just gave a horrible performance in front of the jury, and then we have the virtual nonentities of White Tyler and Blue Sierra.

Ironically, the only player in the 4+2 that came out of it okay (or non-invisible) was Rodney, at least in an argumentative Tony way. Him getting in Dan's ear made him look like a smart player, taking advantage of Mike's sucky play.

But unfortunately, he kind of ruined himself around the Lindsey boot. If Rodney does somehow win, that whole incident is going to be a huge WTF moment with the editors.

But would the editors not show a winners POV from the negativity they had early on? I mean did Kathy not get screentime early in the show and she portray herself as delusional? I don't want to compare Shirin to Kathy because Kathy was robbed and Kathy had the most likable edit possible that season. We have not seen all of that with Shirin. I would think the winner would at least get to demonstrate what their gameplay was going to be. There can be positives to outweigh negative, it happened with Keith last year. It happened with Baylor.

But go on sucks, everyone is convinced the edit means Shirin makes the final three. Well, did Kass and Spencer make the finals? Last season at Cagayan at this point the three with the biggest edits were Jon, Missy, and Reed. Reed was going out the door, and Jon's boot was building up. In Cagayan at this point it was Tony, Spencer, and Kass. Only Tony made the finals.

And this isn't a great season at all and I'll give one good reason why:the no collars. Had Nina, Vince, and Will pulled off that vote week 2 Mike probably would not have had the numbers. Kelly would still be in the game and Nina would most likely be in as well. That would have kept the blue collars from taking over early on because of the age difference. I feel like Nina and Vince were robbed.

LAST EDITED ON 04-26-15 AT 02:54 AM (EST)

Kathy's early portrayal in Marquesas was nothing like Shirin's. If anything, she was more like Mike. She was trying to get her tribe to follow her lead, trying to be their provider, but they weren't listening. She was considered "Bossy".

The main point about Kathy I was making was about the character arc, not the nuts and bolts of her specific personality. They're obviously different people. Shirin is a person who, five weeks ago, had very few people really rooting for her or thinking she could possibly win a jury vote. Now, there are a ton of people pouring out the sympathy and hoping she turns it around.

It's the reason people rooted for Kathy and the reason people rooted for Holly. The audience loves a comeback story.

Granted, as I alluded to earlier, Kathy didn't actually win. Neither did Holly. Because the show doesn't traditionally edit their winners that negatively for an extended stretch of episodes. (Except for Jenna, for some reason.) Which is why it's still way more probable that Mike takes it.

But if Shirin, by some miracle, got the finals and actually won a jury vote, it would be amazing.

I'm sorry Jims, I should have been more specific. I was addressing Outsiders comment that Kathy's early portrayal made her look just as delusional as Shirin. I agree with your comment that they have similar overall arcs: Both rejected by their tribes, both making a come back after the merge. The only difference I'd see is that Kathy's arc started on the upswing right at the swap while Shirin's nosedived for an additional episode after.

The shielding Carolyn from the negativity the most is interesting. Last season on SJDS Jaclyn was invisible on the highly negative Coyopa tribe and was not involved with Nadiya, Val in all the negativity.

I'm hoping Carolyn decides to flip on the others and ask Mike to let her make the final five where she could then play her idol. Remember that premiere? It was all Carolyn from every angle even from the beginning to the end. She is the only one left of the first three WCs introduced and she gets a confessional right before the first break after the tribes start the game and head to camp for the first time saying the title quote, setting off a story that started with her. Maybe also with Jenn gone, now Carolyn's edit can pick back up.

The problem with Mama C is she is unforgiving. She got it in her head early on that Shirin was just an annoying weirdo, nothing has changed in that regard.

Can she now soften her attitude and give Shirin a break? Even if she does why should she abandon her final four group?

The Recap of Episode 10:

- Mike knew that he was in trouble: “I know that they are coming for my head.” He tried to buy an advantage at the auction but Dan was the lucky one. We heard Dan saying that he has an extra vote.

- At the Blue camp, Mike had no intention of going down without a fight. We saw Mike telling everyone that Rodney flipped on the Blue Collars and Rodney telling the “whack job” that he didn’t flip on anyone. We then heard Rodney’s confessional: “What Mike was saying was true but, because of what he done, you just made yourself the next one out.”

- With the Hidden Immunity idol already in his pocket, Mike won individual immunity.

- Facing Tribal Council, Mike tried to warn Dan and Sierra about being on the bottom. We heard Mike talking to Dan: “Those four don’t have your back, Dan. They are using you. You are the only two that I want to go to the Final three with.”

- Will made things personal with Shirin. We heard Will’s remark that she has no one at home that misses her.

- At Tribal Council, Shirin opened up about her past: “I don’t have a family because my biological father verbally assaulted me just like you.” We also heard Will say: “I didn’t verbally assault you.”

- Jenn was voted out.

This recap is extremely tilted in Mike’s favor. It completely ignored his faults only focusing on the fact that he was right but that no one is listening. We didn’t hear anything about his dumb move at the auction, the terrible timing of his accusations towards Rodney or even that it was his distrust that led to the confrontation between Will and Shirin. If the recap was our only evidence, then we’d have to say that the fight came out of the blue. That’s certainly an efficient way of throwing Will under the bus of public opinion, especially considering we heard him denying doing what we had just witnessed. Going back to the main story, we could even say the only story, Mike is alone, abandoned by his previous friends and allies, forced to fight a seemingly hopeless battle only because no one else is aware of what is really happening. That’s a nice underdog story.

Oh! and if anyone cares, Jenn was voted out. It certainly sounded as if Jeff didn’t care about that at all.

Stay the Course

Day 28

In the shelter, Dan asked Sierra if Mike was still planning to turn them. Sierra simply said: “Hard.” Dan’s confessional started here.

We then heard Sierra say: “You almost feel bad for him.”
Dan agreed, adding: “But he just believes it so passionately.”
Tyler, who was half-asleep in the background, commented: “He just freaking flipped.”

Dan’s confessional: “When Mike blew up, he lost everybody’s trust. / He can say that Sierra and I are at the bottom of the barrel but does it make it true? No. I do not believe that I am at the bottom of my alliance. I know it looks like I’m playing a passive game but it doesn’t mean I don’t have schemes brewing.”

How ironic to see Dan yawning just at the end of this confessional! The editors were telling us that Dan’s game is so boring that he puts himself to sleep! Through Sierra’s words, this scene encourages the audience to feel bad for Mike and to yell at Dan that, if he believes it so passionately then maybe, just maybe, it’s because he knows it’s true. Dan may be telling us that he has schemes brewing but the audience will be shown that his schemes are chimeric.

Dan then walked over to Shirin who looked melancholic. She told him that Will verbally assaulted her. She wondered if Will was that dumb or that cruel.

Will was shown sleeping then, the image telling us that his conscience wasn’t bothering him at all. He looked like he didn’t have a care in the world. At least, he’s making it easy for that bus to roll right over him.

Dan told Shirin that he was sorry about what happened during the council.

Shirin asked which part.

Dan answered the one that made her cry.

Shirin’s confessional had been inserted during the previous scene: “I am not one to cry in real life but I have this Pavlov’s dog reaction to men yelling at me...All this drama makes Will an excellent person to take to the end and yet, me and Mike are on the bottom.”

Dan’s confessional: “So, at Tribal Council, one of the things that came up was the blow out between Shirin and Will. Apparently, there’s violence in her history. If that’s the case, I feel very bad for her. However, that being said, Shirin is a drama queen, she is a two faced liar, she looooves to play the victim. For Shirin to say that Will is worse than her, that’s hypocritical. Did he go overboard? From what I heard, yes he did, but when she is calling him names, when she has no gratitude or appreciation; I call that karma.”

The sound of a drum roll was heard during Dan’s pause after “however, that being said...” The military snare drum led us to the execution of Dan’s character. We even heard Dan telling Shirin once more: “I’m sorry, I really am” after we heard the part where he said Shirin was being hypocritical. That was specifically intended to crystallize the opinion in the viewers’ mind that he is the one being hypocritical. I believe that Dan will learn firsthand all about karma. He outlasted Shirin, something we had previously debated, so now the expectation is that she will have the last word during Final Tribal Council.

We returned from the commercial break to Jeff’s order: “Come on in, guys.”

Indecently, this episode’s structure stripped the story to its bare essentials. We only witnessed the repercussions of the previous TC, the challenges and the discussions that led to the next vote. Do you remember when Survivor used to be about the forest fire getting closer to camp, the hunt for pig, the flood, the famine, the fight against cursed turtles to catch fish and the race across fields to catch grasshoppers that would serve as bait for those fish? And that was all just a very small part of what happened in just one season. Today? There is no time for any of that. Our scope is practically limited to the scenes that feature Jeff.

The school yard pick was once more ignored. The sad part is that we all knew it would.

We were told that the Blue team had Mike, Shirin, Sierra and Rodney while the Red one consisted of Tyler, Dan, Carolyn and Will.

They were given 4 barrels, two planks and a rope.
No one seemed to know what to do with the rope except Shirin who looked like she was going to hang herself!

Jeff had some interesting comments:

- Mike doing a lot of work...A nice save.
- The Red team, led by Carolyn and Tyler, taking a more conservative approach.
- Blue with a lot of momentum right now, working together very well.
- The Red team not panicking at all.
- Mike giving up his entire body for this challenge.
- Mike, in trouble, and he recovers, almost doing the split.
- Mike with a big push. Blue has extended their lead.
- The Red team has been very careful, taking their time and it has paid off.
- Mike’s got to be exhausted. Something is going to have to change for Blue.

The Blue team suffered a huge setback when Mike let the planks touch the ground.

We then saw the four going with Sierra’s gamble: Racing on the barrels! Sierra told them to start doing something.

The viewers have been telling her that she should start doing something for weeks now!!

Jeff called the barrel rolling an incredible strategy...if it works

Mike and Shirin didn’t have Sierra’s balance so the gamble failed.

The Red team won reward.

It would have been so funny to see all four rolling their barrels to the end!

While the team was congratulating each other, we heard Tyler saying: “I can’t believe we won that.”

This challenge symbolized the whole season: Mike tried and fought desperately just like he has played the game since day one while Carolyn and Tyler have played much more conservatively here and in the game. This challenge could be telling us that only Mike, Tyler and Carolyn have a chance to win this game while all the others are just standing there, doing nothing, until Sierra’s takes a huge risk late in the game. Was the challenge also telling us that the conservative approach will win in the end? Will Tyler say: “I can’t believe I won” at the reunion? Even symbols can serve as misdirection.

Dan explained their subdued demeanor by saying they feel bad. “Rodney has been on no rewards. I feel very bad right now.”
Jeff told Dan that he could give his spot to Rodney.

Rodney took him off the hook by saying: “I’ll get mine.”

Dan’s expression showed that his love for cheeseburgers his much bigger than his sadness for Rodney.

Carolyn’s confessional was heard when the Red Team left for reward: “Dan’s got options in this game and he’s a loose cannon. We want him to feel comfortable so that inkling to go back to Mike never crosses his mind and being on a reward with him is a perfect opportunity to get that point across.”

As she said that, we saw Dan, all smiles walking right behind Carolyn, rubbing her shoulders. The image was clear: Dan was with her all the way. Even more than Carolyn could hope for because “Dumbass” would soon be leading the bashing.

Day 28

A frustrated and hungry tribe walked back in camp which was a bad sign for Jenn’s last chicken.

Mike’s confessional: “The reward challenge started off really, really good. We had a lead but lost it. It was me doing the work while three other people stood around and watched. It ended up being the losing strategy. I just got to take full credit for that. If my tribe mates are mad at me, I mean how much more mad can they be? I’m already their number one public enemy so I got nothing to lose at this point.”

Rodney in confessional: “I haven’t been able to leave this beach once. I didn’t go on one f*** reward. I’m f*** pissed, I’m miserable, I am not eating enough food, I’m shaking, my beard is itching, I haven’t showered, my nails are nasty. Did I say I’m miserable? Everybody has had a break but I’ve just left with myself 24/7, not being able to burst out and have some fun. I need some Rodney time. For my sanity, I need to get out of here.”

Hey Rodney! This is your chance of a lifetime! I couldn’t figure out exactly what he said to Sierra in the middle of his confessional but it sounded like he was hoping for an individual reward so that someone would have definitely taken him since his birthday is coming soon. Poor guy! He only had one steak the other day. If he wants to win, maybe he should try harder. On the other hand, I’d want a break also if I had to be with him 24/7. This confessional reminded me of Jenn’s spiraling arc so maybe Rodney is going to crash soon. We are at Final 7 and he had talked a lot about that number before so maybe it’s his turn.

While Mike was busy with the chicken, Sierra got serious and told Rodney: “Tyler is going to win this game. If he keeps winning immunities and gets any further, he’ll win and everyone on that jury now will vote for him. He’ll win. He will win.”
Rodney confidently said: “We’ll get him out.”

Sierra replied: “That makes me nervous that you’re not willing to. It makes me feel like you have something with them.”

Sierra was so close to the truth but she didn’t follow through on her feeling...

Rodney reassured her: “If you want him out at seven, I’ll get him out at seven. I’m trying to get him out at six though because I don’t trust Shirin.”

Sierra’s thoughts were heard in her interview: “At this point, Tyler not only can win immunities but he schemes and plans. I’m well aware that Tyler is a threat so we can use Shirin’s vote to get rid of Tyler before the six because these tough guys that are threats, you have to strike when you get the chance. I can’t to say too much because I don’t want to scare them and be another Mike.”

Sierra sees Mike as a guy who cried wolf instead of realizing the real danger.

Sierra reinforced her point to Rodney: “If, for some weird reason, Tyler makes it, we would not win. I am telling you. But if Shirin came with us, we would win. No one would vote for her. It’s not that Tyler is a threat it’s that they see he is playing a good game and they are going to give him a million dollars.”

Rodney’s interview: “Tyler; people think he’s a threat but I am the biggest threat because I am running the show. I got the numbers, I got the relationships, and I got the personalities on my side. I am a little concerned with Sierra. We have to stay cool, calm and collected like I said since day one. My next move is to get Mike and Shirin out of here, get to the “strong six” and then Rodney works his magic.”

Tyler is suddenly presented as someone that played a good game, a schemer but we really haven’t seen enough to agree with Sierra. If what she says is true then the editors didn’t tell us his story. That would be understandable if it led nowhere but if it leads him to victory in the end, we should ask to see the other version of this season! Is Tyler making a late surge or is he just another distraction? The funny thing is that those who are pulling for Tyler would be doing so in large part because it would give us a surprise winner but for him to get there we would have to follow a very predictable boot order!! As the “expected” winner, Mike would need to follow a very surprising route. So which is it? Will we have an “expected” winner with a surprise boot order or a surprise winner after the expected boot order? It seems like the editors painted themselves in the corner and that neither ending will be satisfying to most viewers! All I can say is that we’ve had very predictable votes up to now and I’m bored. Survivor’s usual formula is to favor the surprise boot order whether it leads to an “expected” winner or not.

We then went out to sea and the people on the catamaran

Dan was telling the group: “We won this challenge because there is no Mike in team.”

Carolyn gave him a high five.

There may be no Mike in Team but there are no teams in Sole Survivor!

Dan’s confessional: “I am not going to lie: Winning that reward was awesome!”

Dan told the group that the game was on pause but Tyler replied: “I will say that if we do want to un-pause the game, we are in a good place to un-pause it. There’s no Mike, there’s no Shirin, there’s no non-sense.”

He made a circular gesture with his hand, indicating that the four should be together.

Dan’s interview continued: “Now that Mike is on the outs, the fact that I got to go with these three, Carolyn, Tyler and Will, just made it even better because they are my alliance right now. The only reason why Mike is still here is because he’s won immunities. The next immunity he loses: Pfit! Smell you later.”

Dan just told us that he flipped on Rodney and Sierra!! Poor Dan! Now he can’t win. (Ok, we were pretty sure even before now but it’s always fun when players eliminate themselves!)

Dan continued to talk about Mike to the group: “Mike has been like Teflon. It doesn’t matter how he screws up, he finds a way to fix it. Mike believes with all his heart that the four of you plotted against him to get him out at nine and Rodney turned.”

Tyler said: “Mike is right about one thing, he is a threat but to say that we were plotting to vote him out three or four votes before we agreed, it would be stupid of us.”

It would be stupid of you to say it but not to do it!

Tyler’s confessional: “Dan doesn’t get it, Mike was correct: Our group was going to target him but my goal is to keep Dan focused on the others, on the evils, on the guys like Mike; the flippers that don’t belong. Dan should be worried because he needs to be thinking further along in the game. All he can see is top six and that is a perfect place for his mind to stop. I love the fact that Dan cannot see beyond top six.”

Tyler asked the others: “What snapped in Mike Holloway’s brain four days ago that made him want to throw everybody under the bus and team up with Shirin?”

Carolyn answered: “He went psycho crazy.”

When Tyler said that Dan’s mind had stopped, we saw the mail man bursting out laughing, proving Tyler's point.

The scene concluded with Dan saying: “You know something? This boat is fitting: Stay the course.”

Did they really only talk about Mike? Rewards used to be fun times where the players let loose and we got to see some funny moments outside of the game but here it was all reduced to their plan of getting rid of Mike. Like Rodney said, this was an occasion to burst out laughing but our only laughs came from Dan’s stupidity. He is the one that told Shirin she could do simple math but it’s Dan that doesn’t add the numbers correctly.

Day 29 – The Immunity Challenge

We had no follow-up in camp, going straight from the reward to the next challenge. It used to be that we’d hear about the reward and see the winners make fools of themselves by telling the others all about it. Were the winners upset that the last chicken was eaten while they were gone? How should we know? Those scenes used to amuse us but those funny moments don’t matter anymore, only the game matters.

As for the challenge itself, the producers really wanted to give both Mike and Shirin a chance to stay because they decided we would have two immunities at Final 8. That’s very late in the game, especially considering there were also two Immunity idols in play. I’m wondering if they considered the idea of making it a whistling contest. Would that have showed their intention too clearly?!

Mike asked Jeff to bring the necklace back but Jeff told him he’d have to earn it.

Sierra was the first to get drenched shortly after the 15 minute mark. She was soon followed by Tyler, Will and Dan.

Dan apologized to Rodney just as his bucket tipped over.
We were down to two women and two men: Carolyn, Shirin, Rodney and Mike.

The facial expressions were pretty much telling us the outcome of this challenge: While we saw Shirin and Rodney’s grimaces, Carolyn and Mike looked unperturbed. After cheering for Carolyn, Dan showed his true colors when he openly and abundantly encouraged Rodney in his battle against Mike. He was sounding just as annoying as Jeff! In the end, it didn’t help Rodney. Mike must have felt sick to hear Dan openly cheering for his opposition. Mike showed that a life time of hard work is better than pumping iron in a gym. Interestingly, his win wasn’t accompanied by excessive celebrations like the ones that turned the viewers (and the opponents) against Terry and Troyzan. Mike simply gave a fist pump instead of yelling at the top of his lungs. I wonder if his celebrations were as subdued as we saw or if most of his expressions of joy were hidden.

Jeff congratulated Carolyn and he told Mike that he did in fact earn it. Rodney could only spit in disgust.

Shirin had the “nice game, good effort” confessional: “I held on as long as I could but it wasn’t enough...It would have been epic...we would have seen the “Axis of Evil” scrambling all day but it wasn’t meant to be. I have now got to scramble.”

After all the comparisons I made between this season and Guatemala, it was nice to hear Shirin referring to Rodney’s alliance as the “Axis of Evil.”

Camp – Day 29
The scene opened with a spider weaving its web.

After congratulating Mama C. Rodney told her he was this close.
To console him, Carolyn said they still had an easy vote.

Carolyn’s confessional: “I wanted that necklace more than anything on this planet but, more importantly, is the fact that Shirin didn’t get the necklace. If Shirin got the necklace, one of my alliance members could be going home tonight. Mike winning throws a little bit of a wrench in our plans tonight because we really wanted Mike to go home. The plan for tonight is everyone is voting for Shirin. There is no splitting votes because we’d have to split with one of our own and that just doesn’t make sense.”

Shirin talked to Dan alone in the woods: “I think you’re all incredibly stupid to vote me out. I’m not a threat in challenges and I’m not a threat to win this game. You know it and yet you have huge threats out here, namely Tyler...If you had any power in this game, if you were truly strategic, you would figure out a way to not vote me out.”

As if in response to this we saw Dan spitting out water from his canteen.

Dan’s confessional: “In a dream scenario, of course I’d love to sit next to Shirin in a Final Three. I mean: Who wouldn’t? Nobody likes her.”

You’d still lose, Dan!

Shirin’s confessional: “Dan, because he doesn’t like me, he is going to vote me out instead of voting out the threat. Dan, you are being stupid. You are going to have to make a move. Open your eyes, bro.”

Shirin tried a similar approach with Sierra, telling her: “I can’t think of a single good reason for you to vote me out.”
Sierra said her alliance was her reason.

Shirin cut in: “Your alliance, by definition, is not with you to the end because there are six of you. Presumably, you have some internal alliances in there but I have nothing so I really am with you to the end.”

Asked who she wanted to eliminate, Shirin told Sierra that Tyler should be the one going. She added that she would go with Sierra and Carolyn all the way to the end.

Sierra’s confessional: “Shirin should be taken to the end because she won’t get votes, she won’t win immunity challenges. I’m not dumb, I’m not blind, like I know Tyler’s a threat. If I had two people backing me that were comfortable with it of course I would get rid of Tyler tonight.”

Tyler’s confessional: “We know that Dan’s got an advantage in this game, it’s in his bag so it completely piques my interest and it plants a seed in my mind. What’s in his bag? I realize: Game on! I got to find a way to get into his bag so I walked up and grabbed the bag and raced off towards tree mail in order to understand what the heck is going on inside his bag...Dan has essentially a vote multiplier. What makes me nervous is the Dan-Sierra combination. If they actually saw how dangerous our four is, they could flip, rejoin with Mike and Shirin and use the advantage to vote me out.”

He informed Carolyn of his find. She agreed that it was a big advantage.

The timing of this sequence is interesting since Dan’s extra vote didn’t come into play. The only reason I can think for showing Tyler’s search now was to paint him as a despicable player. There has been general disapproval whenever someone went through someone else’s belongings. Most viewers feel that personal belongings should be respected.

Mike and Dan took a walk towards the water reservoir.

Dan said: “It would be easy for you guys to whip out an idol, protect both of yourselves and kill me.”

Mike said that it was a possibility.

Mike’s confessional: “I won! It feels pretty good, feels pretty awesome and today I don’t have to worry about anything because I’m safe but I’m not guaranteed to win the next immunity. So, I got some work to do in order to get myself further in this game.”
Mike asked Dan: “What if tonight is the last night you can get Tyler and you don’t do it? If you get to the end of the game with Tyler, you lose.”

Mike’s confessional: “There was a time in this game where I would have said: Danno is my strongest ally but I screwed up and I wish there was a way I could convince him how loyal I truly am to him but Dan is unwilling to give me a chance. So, now I see what kind of person he truly is and it’s sad that you put your faith and trust in someone and they turn out being a lot different than you thought they were. This whole game, I’ve been playing ninety to nothing and there is definitely some strategy to be thought of about using the Hidden Immunity Idol tonight for the simple fact that I can get a big threat out of this game. Everyone is going to be voting Shirin. I could literally give the idol to Shirin and shake this game up again. Who knows? Let’s see where the chips fall and maybe those chips will fall in my direction.”

This confessional removes the last irritant in Mike’s edit. Usually, the viewers have favorable opinions of both the Hero and his sidekick (Earl and Yau Man, Tom and Ian and Kim and Chelsea come to mind) so I felt that Mike’s close association with such an uncouth player as Dan hurt Mike’s overall story but now he disassociated himself from the misogynist dumbass. It took a lot of time but, like us, Mike finally sees Dan’s true character.

Tribal Council

Jeff wanted to revisit last week’s TC.

Maybe his PR guy made him realize what a bad job he did, letting Will off the hook!

Shirin explained why she has problems trusting people.

Dan said he was a lot like Shirin because he was adopted.

Jeff told Dan that there was a very big difference between his situation and Shirin’s.

At least this time he sees that he has to intervene and stop the idiots.

Shirin told Jeff that the others don’t realize that Will was wrong.

Dan said he wasn’t there when it went down but he told her he was sorry when he heard what happened.

Shirin commented that no one is telling Will he should apologize because he crossed a line.

Jeff finally turned to Will and asked him why he doesn’t apologize.

Will explained that his apology would have to be sincere.
Turning to this Tribal Council, Shirin told Jeff he would see the dumbest thing when they vote her out instead of Tyler. “Everybody knows that I am not a threat and (pointing to Tyler) we actually have someone who has won an immunity challenge....somebody who will take a million dollars from every other person here except for maybe Mike. They simply want to follow the numbers and not take risks and, for that reason, they will lose a million dollars.”

Jeff told Tyler that she put him on the hot seat with a compliment.

Tyler said: “At the end of the day, my alliance knows that I stand with them, I stand strong with them and that without them; I’d be right over there.”

Jeff asked Sierra about the timing of eliminating a threat and taking someone that isn’t a threat to the end.
Sierra sais she understood but that she only had one vote.
Shirin interjected: “If you don’t have the power to change a few people’s mind perhaps you’re not in the strong position in your alliance that you thought you were in.”

Carolyn pointed out that they did have a six strong alliance. She added: “Timing and moves in this game are critical but you don’t want to make moves too early in the game because, when you do, you could make the worst decision of your life.”

I’d have pointed out that the same can be said of waiting too long to make a move but I’m not Jeff.

Jeff asked Mike about the importance of the vote, that without Shirin he will have to keep winning.

Mike answered that he only had to win the necklace one more time for the alliance to start cannibalizing itself. He added: “I’ve been Blue Strong all the way and I’m asking the Blues, Sierra, Rodney and Dan: Please write a name that starts with a T and you guarantee yourself a spot further in the game.

Tyler cut in: “And they are listening to you because your loyalty has been spot on.”

That made Rodney and others laugh. Since we know that it was Rodney’s loyalty that hasn’t been spot on then we can say that bullies are always stronger in pack. Or should I say “only stronger”?

Mike wanted to reply but Tyler interrupted: “Being the smartest player in Survivor history doesn’t mean that you scramble. Sometimes, looking at an alliance and realizing that we got a guarantee to the top six and all we got to do is shut up, put blinders on, tune out the non-sense and just eliminate people. We play ball with people who are smart enough, patient enough, to sit back and wait.

The Jury, representing the audience at this point, didn’t buy Tyler’s pitch. That recipe, which is what Boston Rob served to Ometepe, works for one person, not six.

This time, Jeff didn’t let that pass by without challenging it: “Or, if somebody realizes that they are on the bottom (the camera moved in close to Dan and Sierra) they would make a move because going out at six makes no sense. This game is way too hard.”

Rodney told Jeff that they originally had a strong seven but that Mike flipped and made himself a target.

Dan concurred: “Mike’s action, at that moment, was the start of everything that fell before him so now Mike is having to answer for the consequences of his actions and likewise, so is Shirin. They’ll say anything at this point to stay in the game because that is what desperate people do.”

That sounded nauseating to Shirin.

Jeff offered the two “desperate” people a chance to plead their case.

Searching in his boot, Mike said: “I know Shirin and I are not going home tonight. I’m pulling out this immunity idol, Jeff.” The jury loved that so much that Jenn clapped and Joe gave a fist pump! “We are going to see where this six is divided.” He showed the idol to Shirin and added: “Here’s the plan, Jeff: Shirin is voting for Tyler (who looked like he needed some Pepto Bismol right then) I’m voting for one of the other four who doesn’t have immunity and you take your chances. Three people can vote Tyler and guarantee themselves a spot because it’s only going to take four when I play this.”

Jeff called the plan Survivor Russian Roulette: “If you want to make sure there isn’t a bullet in the chamber with your name on it, Mike is saying you better vote Tyler because, otherwise, it could be you.”

Tyler’s eyes were throwing daggers at our host when he sent them to vote.

Shirin was so excited she hopped, skipped and jumped to the voting booth and the jury smiled at her.

Shirin voted against Tyler saying: “Just sit there and look pretty.”

His expression didn’t look pretty to me!

Tyler’s parchment was hidden but we heard him say: “Oh! Boy! I hope this works.”

Twice we’ve heard Tyler’s voting confessionals and those were the two times when he didn’t know what was going to happen. It doesn’t make him look too good.

Mike, who had been playing with the idol, stood up when Jeff asked if anyone wanted to play an idol. The camera left him to show the jury’s reaction and that of the other players but all Mike did was tell Shirin that he loved her and put the idol back in his pocket.

Strangely, we saw no expressions of relief from Rodney’s alliance. Judging by the quick looks left and right by both Will and Rodney, it was as if they didn’t know what happened.
In the end, Shirin and Mike voted for Tyler.

Tyler and Will voted for Dan who looked pained when he saw the second vote against him while Mike and the jury were all smiles.
The other four didn’t buy Mike’s bluff and voted for Shirin who had to get her torch so that it could be snuffed.

Led by Dan, the group applauded the result. Rodney showed his relief, Carolyn her satisfaction but, with a smirk on his face and captions to highlight it, Mike said: “Dan still got two votes.”

Jeff sent them back to camp after saying: “I don’t know if I’ve ever been this confused after a vote.” (Tyler, Sierra, Will and Carolyn were shown enjoying themselves at that point.) Then Jeff added: “Because, for all the talking of a tight six, the votes say otherwise and yet nobody from the six seems to mind.”
Maybe those words should have sobered them up but Dan was still smiling.

In her final words, Shirin said she didn’t have bad feeling towards Mike. She was even heard saying he would have been dumb to play it for her. She summed up the strategy nicely by saying that they got two people to flinch showing Dan were he stood and that it could be his wake-up call since he doesn’t like getting votes.

The Story

We usually have many stories to consider after an episode but this one was strictly about Mike and there really is only one question to answer: Did the editors redeem Shirin in the viewers’ mind? Were the viewers rooting for her to stay or did they want Tyler to survive? The question is rhetorical and I’m not asking for a poll. I’m just using the question as the starting point for my analysis. One thing is certain: A vast majority of the audience would have been rooting for Tyler if this vote happened a few weeks ago, at the time Max was voted out for example. If Tyler had been on Nagarote instead of the professor and the vote had been between those two, Shirin’s exit wouldn’t have upset many viewers. That shows us the big effort that was done for her redemption.

With Tyler’s name surfacing as a likely winner, we have another angle to look at the same question. The show has rarely presented the eventual winner as a desirable elimination possibility, especially since it became story driven. Maybe Shirin wasn’t the fan’s favorite to stay over Tyler as much as I think but everyone will agree that there was a lot of ambiguity. I can only think of two occasions when there was some ambiguity: When James left instead of Todd or when Troyzan was booted instead of Kim. In both cases James and Troyzan were fan favorites. It would have been nearly impossible to tilt the balance completely in the eventual winner’s favor but it would have been simple to do it this time. They just had to ignore Shirin after Max’s elimination instead of neglecting Tyler for the whole season. Shirin’s redemption story should convince us that Tyler cannot win.

The Characters

Playing with Blinders

Will: He is so blind that he can’t see that he was wrong to attack Shirin. Jeff’s remark that he could regret not saying “I’m sorry” could be telling us that Will is going to pay for it during Final TC but we never saw him as a finalist so the conclusion of that story should come at the reunion.

Dan: He would have loved to take Shirin to the Final Three thinking she wouldn’t beat him but that just shows his complete lack of self-awareness. Every time he said that Mike is wrong, we had someone telling us that Mike is right. Dan is likely to get a lesson in Survivor during the Final TC. One could even say that it will be a lesson in life. I’m betting he won’t be laughing then.

Carolyn: She certainly isn’t as delusional as the previous two but she knows Tyler a lot better than them. For instance, she knows that he can keep a secret since her idol hasn’t surfaced. Therefore, she should be wondering if he is keeping secrets from her. The ease with which he lied to Dan during the catamaran ride, the way he convinced him that they were Final 4 should also trouble her. Carolyn was just going to keep Dan happy but Tyler went much further. Hearing Shirin say that Tyler will take the million away from her should also ring some alarms but Carolyn is staying on course, even if she is certain to lose against her ally. She threw away a good opportunity simply because she can’t stand Shirin, not even if it meant a million dollars.

Overestimating their Game:

Sierra: Like Dan, Sierra thought Shirin wouldn’t get any votes but at least Sierra would have made a better impression on the jury if she had flipped the game and kept her. She thinks she is in a solid position with Rodney but his refusal to boot Tyler should have alerted her. Is Tyler the only member of her alliance that could beat her in the end? Even Rodney could cause her problems because he is much more liked by the other castaways than by the viewers. Dan’s reaction after winning reward showed that Rodney is respected. There are only 4 votes left before the F3 and Sierra needs to eliminate Mike, Tyler and Rodney to have a chance. That’s a tough program to execute in such a tight schedule.

Rodney: He is also overestimating his game by saying that he will have smooth sailing after Mike’s elimination. He should realize how easy it is to turn the others since he turned them against Mike. What’s to stop them from turning against him? His connections and his personality won’t help him when a million dollars prize is on the line.

The Challenger also known as the flavor of the week!

Tyler: Like I explained at length above, Tyler could come up with the season’s late surge but it would mean a very linear game play. He knows that his best chance is for everyone to play with blinders and while they have been doing just that up to now, the game has been shaken not stirred. Mike bluffed and Tyler flinched. Will it be enough to destroy his careful, slow game construct? The season’s narrative certainly leads us to believe it will.

The Sole Survivor

Mike: Jeff was wrong about the vote being like Russian roulette. That term should be used only when the players draw rocks. Here, it was much more a game of poker and Mike was bluffing them all. Despite Shirin’s final words, I know many will say that Mike should have given his idol to Shirin. The inclusion of her final words tells us that the editing intent is to make us feel like it was the right thing to do but was it? Terry came under a lot of criticism for not saving Sally so Mike will face the same here even if he did more with his idol than the ex-fighter pilot. Giving his idol to Shirin would have left him without recourse at the next TC and the players would have been even angrier with him. This way, their reaction after the vote showed they think they outwitted Mike so maybe he will frighten them a little less. They have three days to decide who goes first in their six. It could get ugly...I mean uglier.
At the time, Mike couldn’t have known for sure but giving his idol to Shirin wouldn’t have eliminated Tyler. With two votes, Dan, the one he was trying to rally, would have been eliminated on the revote. What he should have known though was that he was giving a free pass to Sierra to vote against Shirin. She could safely vote with her alliance and still hope to see Tyler get the boot. Mike wanted to shake the alliance and his bluff worked perfectly. He knows that the vote is the only thing that reveals the truth so Dan should be much more inclined to listen. If not, maybe Tyler could rally to Mike’s side. Of all the players, he should be the least threatened by Mike’s challenge skills so maybe he will side with the player with the other idol. It’s the only way Mike won’t vote against him at the next TC. Suddenly, Mike has options.

The Recap

Rodney was putting together a strong alliance…but being in charge doesn’t always lead to happiness.

Tyler and Carolyn discovered the power of Dan’s advantage.

After exposing Rodney’s secret alliance, everyone was targeting Mike. Rodney was heard saying Mike will never know if they get him out while Mike told us that he knows they are coming after him.

He was unstoppable at immunity challenges and, at Tribal Council, he revealed his idol to shake up the majority of six.
Even if Tyler and Will changed their votes, Shirin was sent home. We saw Rodney and Dan celebrating while Mike said “Dan still got two votes.”

Besides reminding us that Tyler and Carolyn knew about Dan’s advantage, this recap was once again centered on Mike. Even if he is in a great position, we had another example that Rodney wasn’t a very smart player when he told us that Mike would be caught unaware just before we heard Mike say he knew all about Rodney’s plan. This episode will feature a new power player so Mike will face a new contender.

I’m the One in Charge Right Now

Night 29

Coming back to camp, Carolyn said she thought Dan voted for Tyler while Tyler voted for Dan.

Dan was quick to point out he voted for Shirin as planned. Sierra confirmed that she recognized his handwriting.

Will told everyone that they shouldn’t argue about this.

Smiling, Mike said: “One of you is going home next time so you better start scrambling.”

Mike’s confessional: “When we got back to camp, they called a little team meeting of the six and it was kind of fun. It’s kind of fun watching people start to scramble because, for the past three votes, I’ve been scrambling. Right now, I am safe with my hidden immunity idol so that target is taken off of me and they’ll start turning on each other. The fall out of all of this is going to be interesting to watch, that’s for sure.”

Mike is going to need to do more than just watch...unless he winds up on the jury. This was just the first hint that he could be slipping.

We joined the argument between Tyler and Dan. Dan was telling Tyler that he should have known it was a bluff.

Tyler’s confessional: “I put down Dan’s name thinking that I got to do whatever I can to stay alive.”

In the end, Dan told Tyler that he was fine with the vote. That seemed to encourage Will who told Dan that he also wrote his name in order to split the votes. Dan thanked him and shook his hand and said: “You and I are going far. We are not going anywhere.”

In the middle of his talk with Will, we heard Dan’s confessional: “The fact that I got two votes gave me reason for pause. That’s bad on Will and Tyler because they did flinch. Mike is still public enemy number one right now but here is the problem: Mike has an immunity idol. He is guaranteed one more trip.”

From a game perspective, it is very troubling for Mike’s chances that Dan was so quick to forgive Tyler and Will, especially hearing Dan assuring Will that they were going far together. We speculated that Mike could make it to the end via Dan’s advantage. The two would somehow make up after Dan’s near death experience and rejoin his old friend but that road had already been permanently shut. This scene opened the door for a final three that would include Dan and Will and who else would be there with those two but Rodney?

Tyler’s confessional resumed: “Last night’s vote showed that the six are willing to vote for each other and that Dan is most likely on the bottom which is why he got votes but I was on the chopping block as well so I don’t have too many lifelines remaining. I voted for Dan and I plan on doing it again. I don’t know if I can call Dan extremely gullible. I call him extremely loyal and, in this game, they are one and the same.”

As a viewer, I’ve been saying the same about loyalty for a long time now and the Tocantins’ version of Coach was the perfect example. Too bad Tyler waited for his exit episode to say something of substance. Maybe I would have enjoyed him a little more. Then again, Tyler would have impressed me more if he had followed up on his own assessment by getting as tight as possible with the loyal dumbass instead of targeting him.

Day 30

Will walked over to Rodney, saying it was his birthday.
Rodney’s confessional: “Today is my birthday. Hopefully we get a reward and hopefully I can get out of here. I’ve been stuck on this beach for 30 days doing the same damn thing over and over again.”

Carolyn and Mike brought tree mail. Will told Rodney that he’d give up his place if he can.

Rodney’s confessional: “People don’t know how tight me and Will are. And Mama C., she has a lot of love too and they are going to take me on this reward. If I don’t go on the reward, it will be a sad, sad day. My whole game will change but guess what? The chance of that happening is 0.000% chance because that is how much faith I have in these people.”

Instead of counting on his tribe mates, Rodney should have known his future depended much more on production. I wonder if they switched challenges just so they could have the one that was played in pre-determined teams. I mean, this challenge could have been planned at the F6 instead of forcing one to witness it from the sidelines. I won’t need to make many comments on Rodney’s behavior because one of his allies will explain it perfectly in just a bit.

The Reward Challenge

This time Jeff told us how the picks unfolded.

As the first captain, Dan chose Rodney and Tyler while Carolyn picked Mike and Sierra.

See Jiffy, you don’t have to waste “valuable” airtime on the picks to satisfy us, just give us the details.

Mike, Sierra and Carolyn held a lead for most of the challenge, especially when the other team was wrong in assembling their ladder and when Rodney forgot to bring his balls through the net sling.

Despite his huge lead, Mike couldn’t get the balls in the goals. It opened the door for Dan who quickly gained the lead and was launching the winning ball but it just missed. Carolyn and Sierra begged Mike to switch and let them try it but it fell on deaf ears. Jeff said: “Sierra wants in but Mike won’t give her a shot.” Down 4-2 at one point, Mike made a comeback and won it for his team.

This is the second hint that Mike’s game could have reached its zenith and is on a downward trajectory. Using the catapult required practice so changing players could have wasted even more time when Dan was practically making every hit. Was it necessary to include another example that Mike isn’t a team player at this late date? Maybe it was to show that he can still pull out the victory but it made me cringe.

Sierra and Carolyn hugged and they were jumping with joy at the thought of the reward.

That told us they weren’t going to let Rodney take their place.

I’d like to know what the camera man was thinking right then: We first had an overhead shot of the challenge arena then it seemed like we were taking a plunge towards the trees but the camera quickly flipped around and we came right back to another overhead angle of the same arena. The montage just looked weird, amateurish even.

After Rodney told him that it was his birthday, Jeff tried to help Rodney: “Are you hoping one of these three will feel for you on your special day and give up their reward for you?”
Rodney said he didn’t want to pressure them.

Yet he repeated that it was his birthday three times. The song “It’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to...” came to mind.
Rodney’s confessional was more of the same: “They just turned me into the psychotic person that I am.”

The Orphanage

Mike’s confessional: “Carolyn, Sierra and myself get to jump into the back of this truck loaded down with toys, bats, balls, school supplies and we get to go to this orphanage where we can be ambassadors of goodwill for Survivor. To see the faces of all these little boys and girls when we pulled up filled me up inside because I just enjoy being around kids and being a kid because I’m a big kid.”

Sierra told the kids that she was a cowgirl and had horses. We then heard her confessional: “This is one of the coolest experiences that I ever had. To come here and meet these amazing children who are so grateful and spend time with them; I couldn’t ask for a better reward today.”

When they sat down to eat, the trio had a thought for Rodney but Mike said it was also a special day for them.

Carolyn’s confessional: “Rodney is going to be pissed off at me because I didn’t give up this reward but, when you think about it, this is not a horrible birthday: You’re on Survivor for God’s sakes. I hadn’t been on a reward with Mike before so I got a chance to see him in a different light. Mike has a lot of power in this game right now: He does win challenges and does have an idol. So, he is not going home and we have to vote one of the six out. That’s why I’m worried about myself. Yeah, I’m thinking about aligning myself with the people I think are going to take me further in this game. So, maybe it’s time to join forces. Who knows? It could happen!”

First, we have to thank Carolyn for bashing Rodney, saying what every viewer was thinking about the spoiled brat. Next, we have to realize that Mike’s confessional was the kind we usually associate with Journey players instead of winners. It can be said that his words fleshed him out even more, humanized him in such a way that even Carolyn saw him in a different light but Mike’s confessional had the same value as Sierra’s. Sierra isn’t exactly edited as a winner yet her words gave us just as nice a glimpse into her personality as Mike’s. The one that had the important confessional was Carolyn because it returned the focus on the game. It also served as misdirection, making us think that Mike could have a new option but Carolyn cannot be thinking of joining Mike for the long term, can she? Still the scene ended by showing Mike and Carolyn locking arms over Sierra’s shoulders.

Back in Camp

We returned to camp accompanied by a sad melody and then, suddenly, something disturbed the bee hive. From melancholic, the music changed to feature heavy drums. It wasn’t hard to imagine what was coming next...

Rod’s confessional: “___Washing dishes on my birthday. Nine miserable days left...0 for five in reward challenges and a bunch of scumbags who neglected me on my birthday, who claim to be Survivor family...All bets are off now. Carolyn and Sierra: They ain’t going to the end.”

Could Rodney wind up making the decision for Carolyn and Sierra, pushing them directly into Mike’s arms? Those two are evidently playing to make it to the end with players they can beat but they could switch if they realize they aren’t part of Rodney’s Final Three.

Dan told Tyler that Rodney wasn’t about to cool off: “It’s who he is.”

Rodney told everyone that he was pissed at Mama C.

We saw that Tyler heard him loud and clear. How much did he tell Carolyn? We didn’t see them talking about it but Tyler must have told Carolyn that Rodney would be gunning for her after this.

Dan’s confessional: “I understand him being hurt...being upset but even in my opinion; that was a bit much.”

Rodney then came up with a new plan: He was going to say he wants to be voted out so that Mike doesn’t play his idol and they can blindside him. He assured them that Mike was going home.

Dan’s confessional continued: “I do not think for a second that it’s going to work. I really think Rodney is slipping off into that abyss! That’s alright with me. Let him have his moment of explosion. Hopefully, he’s on the chopping block and they won’t see me as a target. We’ll see how it all plays out.”

Tyler’s confessional: “We sat around and essentially watched Rodney storm around, kick the dirt, curse, spit like he’s lost it; he’s going crazy which is scary because Rodney is in my alliance. I certainly can’t rely on him and Mike most likely will play his idol. It would be stupid for Mike to buy this story and I’m the first one wants gone. I’m going to be the one he votes for. If we just leave it in Mike’s hands, I am out of here.”

In the middle of the confessional, we heard Tyler asking Rodney what would happen if Mike played his idol and voted for him. Rodney refused to even consider the possibility that his plan could fail.

Night 30

It was such a scary, stormy night that even the bats were going bat-sh*t crazy!

Rodney was going through with his act.

Rodney’s confessional: “I’m telling them that they can vote me out; that I’ve had enough. Hopefully, Mike doesn’t play his idol and we pull up the biggest blindside of the game. We’ll see what happens.”

With one sentence, Mike showed Rodney the problem with his plan: “It totally makes more sense to keep you right now.”

Mike’s interview: “I see right through the plan; trying to make me feel like I’m safe so I don’t play my idol. That ain’t happening, brother. I’m not an idiot. Just because I talk slow, it doesn’t mean that I think slow.”

Will gave us an interview: “Mike didn’t buy Rodney’s act for a second. He just stopped that conversation. Mike has his immunity idol and we are back to square one.”

Tyler and Carolyn had a conversation away from everyone one. She told him that Mike would vote for him or Dan so he had to win immunity. Tyler asked her about the idol. She said: “We will use it when we need it.”

Tyler’s confessional: “Would Carolyn be willing to put down the White Collar idol to save me? I hope so. My trust is in Mama C. I’m also her closest alliance member and as things get down to the wire, you got to trust people in order to get further.”
Carolyn’s interview: “From a strategic game perspective, I’m playing the game hard. I know that Tyler trusts me but I think Mike doesn’t really have anybody else to work with so I actually do feel like I’m the one in charge right now.”

Right then, we saw a frog take a leap and turn into a blue bird. It was a nice camera trick and it makes me think that Carolyn just made a transformation, from a follower to the leader. I’d really like to know if that particular bird as symbolic or mythological importance in Nicaragua. Frogs usually turn into prices, not princesses. Or was it just to show neat camera work?

Day 32 - The Immunity Challenge

Rodney started complaining as soon as the challenge started but Will was the first to drop. He was quickly followed by Dan. Sierra and Rodney didn’t last much longer. Mike made it to the first transition but he couldn’t hold up.

Dan was particularly happy about that but I noticed Sierra’s expression also. Her face showed surprise but maybe also disappointment.

Tyler also let go so Carolyn won a second immunity in a row. Sierra was particularly happy for Carolyn.

Sierra’s reaction makes me think that the two had already decided on eliminating Tyler.

Despite the fact that a woman won this particular type of challenge every time they ran it, we must admit that Carolyn is building up a nice résumé to present to the jury.

Dan’s confessional: “The good news is that Mike has to play that idol. Bad news? I got two votes at the last Tribal Council and right now there is a lot of talk about my advantage which makes me an easy target.”

Back in Camp

Carolyn’s confessional: “I won my second immunity challenge in a row. Woo-woo! I’m so excited! It’s not cut and dry how to play this game now because there are so many options. So, you have to make sure you figure out the right move.”

Dan’s interview: “Does it put fear into me that my name could get written down? Of course it does. I feel like one of three people are going home tonight: Me, Mike or Tyler. Mike is probably going to play his idol so the odds are on either Tyler or myself because they see Tyler as a threat and my name keeps getting written down.”

To Rodney, Sierra and Dan, Carolyn proposed: “Guys vote Mike, girls vote Tyler?”

Carolyn gave us another confessional: “As far as Dan is concerned, we are voting for Tyler but voting for Dan is not really a bad idea because we get rid of the advantage.”

This scene brings up a huge question: We heard that Carolyn wasn’t being completely honest with Dan. She was just paying lip service to keep him happy BUT was she doing the same with Rodney? Did Rodney expect her to vote against Tyler or was he also just going along to appease the mail man? He wouldn’t be too happy to see that she left him out of the loop but we have to assume that he was on board with eliminating Tyler. That would close another door for Mike.

At the water reservoir, Tyler and Will were plotting against Dan.

We heard Tyler’s plan in confessional. He wanted to get rid of Mike’s idol and of Dan’s advantage by a splitting vote.

In the hammock, Mike told Carolyn that he was voting against Tyler.

Carolyn’s confessional: “Mike is gunning for Tyler and this could be the only opportunity for me to side with him but I don’t know if that’s the right move to make right now.”

Mike’s interview: “I really, really hope that Mama C. is 100% on board with me right now because my options of who to work with at this point are a little bit limited.”

Tyler talked to Carolyn and they agreed to vote against Dan. The plan was for Carolyn and Will to vote against Dan. Tyler repeated that the advantage was going to haunt them if they didn’t get rid of it.

As they prepared for TC, Carolyn gave the last confessional of the evening: “It’s a toss-up between Dan and Tyler as to who needs to go first. Tyler and I have a bond. We’ve been together since literally day three but he is the only one who knows that I have an idol so he could blow up my game but Dan’s advantage gives him an extra vote so that’s a big threat. This is a game for a million dollars and I’m here to play the game so: Game on, boys and girls.”

The only positive point for Mike in all of this is that Carolyn’s move isn’t clearly presented as a good move for her. Her hesitations added to the episode’s suspense but the power of the advantage was clearly stated as a big threat. Tyler wasn’t really a threat for Carolyn and her only concern was that he could tell everyone that she had an idol. Hearing Tyler’s confessionals, the viewers know that he wasn’t thinking of betraying her trust so it could be said that she made her move too early. It really doesn’t matter that I think it was a terrific move and could reward her handsomely when she makes her case to the jury. The editing is much less decisive.

Tribal Council

Jeff immediately turned to Mike who jokingly pretended to look through his pockets but then assured him he had brought his idol. He said it guaranteed that one of the six was going home.

Dan told Jeff he found out who had voted for him and that it showed him who was on the bottom of the six.

Tyler said he didn’t really scramble after the challenge but that he touched base with everyone.

Dan’s quick head turn told us that Tyler may not have touched base with him.

Mike told Jeff that there had been some talk about Dan’s advantage, adding that he hoped it was worth $480.

Carolyn told Jeff she was worried about Dan’s advantage, saying it could be a super idol like the one Tony had.

Dan said everyone approached him about his advantage.

It’s curious that we didn’t hear any of those talks.

Sierra agreed with Jeff that it was the perfect time to make a big move and that it will shock everybody. “I’m keeping every option open” she added.

Tyler said it was time to look at the people you can beat in the end. Tyler said he would be surprised to leave.

It was, already, time to vote.

Since Jeff had gotten Tyler to admit he would be blindsided, there was no need to prolong the council.

Once Jeff had tallied the votes, Mike jumped to his feet and played his idol, making sure to tell Jeff he was playing it for himself.

The jury was smiling but Rodney wasn’t. Mike was also smiling when Jeff read the four votes against him while, from the jury box, Joe showed that he was anxiously waiting for the first vote against someone else than Mike.

The 5th parchment read Tyler.

That was Mike’s vote so it didn’t tell us a whole lot. If the 6th vote was against Dan then the 7th would also likely be against Dan, but if it was Tyler... You could tell that the same thought ran through Tyler’s head just before Jeff spoiled it by saying: “The 12th person voted out and the fifth member of our jury” before turning the parchment.

Carolyn had a wry smile on her face. Besides Will, everyone looked happy with the result. I found it funny that Tyler watched his torch get snuffed with the same serious look on his face that made so many think he was being portrayed as the “observer”.

Jeff sent them packing after saying: “If there is one thing that should be most concerning it’s the admission that everybody wants to take the weakest to the end.

We’d expect that the camera would have shown Will and Dan when Jeff said this but it showed Sierra, Mike and Carolyn instead.

The Story

In his last word, Tyler told us that going after Dan was the right move but that his alliance didn’t follow suit. Was that intended to present him as being delusional or was it telling us that Carolyn will regret not getting rid of the advantage? It sounded like it fit in with the narrative that Carolyn didn’t make quite the best move. From a game perspective, she eliminated someone that could have beaten her in the end but it was also someone that wasn’t going to target her. Rodney, Will and Dan, the trio of losers, have to be aware they need to stick together. Even Jeff realized that the weak players are looking to take each other to the end. That means Mike, Carolyn and Sierra are not going to break into that group easily.

The Characters

The Bad Final Three: Say it ain’t so, Jeff...

Will: It was funny to hear Will telling Dan that he had also voted against him after Dan told Tyler that he had no hard feelings. Will’s first intention was to avoid that discussion all together but coming clean just earned him a spot in Dan’s Final Three. So why was he still gunning for the mailman when he talked to Tyler? Since Will eventually voted against Mike, it seems logical to assume that he was in on the plan to blindside Tyler. Since we didn’t hear his thoughts on the matter, it paints him as a player that is completely out of the loop.

Dan: He may say that it broke his heart to vote against Mike but he certainly healed quickly. In Will, Dan has found his perfect companion to take to the end and he would beat him...if it was a Final 2. I don’t believe I am going to say this but I’m glad for the Final three just to remove this possibility.

Rodney: Carolyn said it all: The cry-baby should be happy to be on Survivor. I’d still like to tell him that he should win a challenge if he wants to get a reward. As the head goat, Rodney has a clear path to the final three and even he would easily beat Will and Dan. What a disastrous result that would be. We are in the 4th quarter of the game right now and I’m still waiting to see “Tom Brady” taking over the game. Instead, we have to watch this deflated version.

The Good Final Three: Could we be so lucky?

Sierra: We’ve heard Sierra say a few times that she wants to go to the end with people she can beat but she probably won’t have the luxury to decide. There is no room for her with the frat boys. Her reaction when Mike fell into the water could be telling us that she already realized this. Working with him is a double edged sword: Together, they could open up a spot in the final three but, then, he could take it away from her.
Their collaboration has already eliminated Tyler which was great for Sierra, much better for her than Carolyn actually. We know she had been actively working on that since last week. Was it just a onetime deal? She should realize that she still needs his help if she wants to make it to the end. Her role in the overall story has been so limited that we don’t see her as the one that will profit from the big moves required.

Carolyn: Quietly, Carolyn is playing an excellent game. Besides Joaquin who wasn’t on her tribe at the time, she is directly responsible for eliminating all the White Collars so she could be described as the season’s biggest flipper. She certainly fits the theme of “Making Decisions” now that Mike has no control over the course of the game except for winning immunity. The only reservation is that the viewers know that Max, Shirin and Tyler weren’t gunning for her so she got rid of allies that would have helped her against the three goats. If she had gotten rid of Tyler last week and kept Shirin then she could have had the numbers to go after Rodney’s posse without keeping a real threat around. Now, she may need Mike and even his vote may not be enough against Dan’s advantage. She won’t have an easy road to navigate to the end and her impressive win will put a target on her back but she still has an idol to play and maybe other surprises as well. As the new person in charge, the other players aren’t ready to deal with this powerful threat innocently called Mama C.

Mike: For the first time, I saw some hints of a Journey player in Mike’s presentation. When we heard him say that he’d enjoy watching the six scramble, it told us that he was forgetting that the job didn’t end there. He knew he’d use his idol so he must have started working on the next step but we didn’t hear him talk about that. Instead, we heard him describing the reward and telling us it made him happy to act like a kid again. Often, that’s an end of story presentation: Mike’s journey on Survivor was satisfying. He can certainly turn things around by winning immunity but it wouldn’t be very satisfying to see him simply win his way to the end. If he is able to get people to vote for someone else when he doesn’t have immunity, then we could say he played a great game. Like he said, his moves are limited but he could shake things up by pointing out that Rodney, Dan and Will are all joined at the hip.

If my math is right then there are 20 different possible Final 3 combinations right now so these are only the two that I would call the extremes. It seems pretty obvious that anyone in the “good final three” would beat any of the “bad final three” but can they make it with them? The best option for Sierra and Carolyn could be to keep Mike for one round, get rid of one goat and then to flip back against Mike but that plan has many pitfalls, the biggest being that letting Mike one step closer to Final three could be all he needs. Dan’s advantage can also disrupt that plan and even Mike could flip back to the guys if they realize that Carolyn and Sierra are sticking together.

My “Mike wins” ticket has been punched a long time ago and I can’t change that so I’ll put some virtual money on Carolyn to “Place”. A Place ticket still pays when the horse wins. It doesn’t pay a lot but still...

Interesting stuff as always. I had a different take on Mike's watching the six scramble. He had laid the groundwork for the six to shatter with his idol bluff, and had painted a target on Tyler, tactically it was the smart move right after that to observe and see how things shake out. But he could have been a bit more proactive throughout the rest of the episode, so maybe I quibble.

I don't think he lost sight of the fact that he still has a lot of work ahead of him to make it to the win, but he may have missed some openings during his downtime, especially during reward with Carolyn and Sierra.

The Rodney Show this time completely sealed his fate, he cannot win. (Carolyn in particular zeroed in on his problem.) He is emotional and has tried to play on emotions, starting with the story about his sister. He is getting even more emotional as things proceed and it has been affecting his judgment, the acting ploy to try to sucker Mike was particularly desperate. More to the point, though, by giving vent to his inner psychotic he has allowed himself to become an emotional bully. Bullies only get payback in the end, it makes no difference if it is an emotional bully Rodney or a mental bully Will or just another Hantz.

I like how you used the name Hantz as synonym for Bully!

What do you think of Carolyn's chances considering her up and down edit?

I know I've been warned that taking Jeff at his word is a parlous habit, but I can't shake the fact that he earlier enthused:

It would not surprise me if the winner of Season 30 became one of the favorite winners of all time. I do think when this season is over, the audience will feel that whoever has won has absolutely earned it..

It can't apply to Dan, Will, or Sierra; nor can I see that consideration being applicable to Rodney, whose only redeeming moments in the edit have been as comic relief. So that leaves Carolyn and Mike alone as fitting Probst's encomium—and as you've pointed out in your typically excellent analysis, Michel, Carolyn's strategic moves are still, via the edit, fully capable of being questioned as to their aptness towards leading her to victory. IMO, only Mike has been given enough personality space, enough character growth, to qualify as a favorite; and seeing as, from what we have been shown, Carolyn has (so far) mostly benefitted from, and been held secure within, the loyalty of the strong six, I'm not sure her earning it approaches the level of Mike's in regard to having absolutely earned it, in that his every immunity win has been the only thing keeping him in the game, whereas Carolyn's wins have primarily served merely to deprive that reprieve from others.

The thing is, I look at the six remaining, at Dan's vote advantage and Carolyn's idol, and I cannot see how Mike wins apart from the nigh impossible feat of winning three straight immunities—and yet, with that said, Probst's words continue to give me the conviction that he is the only possible winner who encapsulates the whole of the host's praise...

I always appreciate your contribution, Tyrone.

You could be right but I've avoided Jeff's comments. He also said this was one of the greatest casts ever. He has to love players like Will, Dan and Rodney to say this so his judgment is definitely impaired.

Sits with Tyrone.

The way I see it none of the others can win unless they boot both Carolyn and Mike. Dan and Will have both have made themselves goats, Dan has maybe a 0.01% better chance than Will. If it were to come down to Rodney v. Sierra, he has played the game harder but not better, she would need a stellar edit in the run-up to FTC for the audience to finally get to know her.

Carolyn wins if she isn't sitting next to Mike. Mike wins if he isn't sitting next to Carolyn.

If it comes down to Carolyn v. Mike, hard to say, though she would need that final stellar edit to satisfy Probst's hype.

But that was way way back and Jeff knows we've all forgotten by now what he said.

Carolyn may be shown to offer a worthy competitor to Mike, or perhaps to hype her for S31, Second Chance. I agree, only a Mike win would fit the hype for this season. While turning on her ally Tyler is a powerful move, it broke the 4 which would have had control if Dan was booted. Now X/(Mike), Y/(Sierra) & 2xDan can control. Carolyn wins against anybody except Mike. She is the only remaining challenge threat to Mike. I wouldn't be surprised if Mike gets the BC band back together & Carolyn gets voted out next.

The thing about Dan is, I just don't think he's going to get back together with Mike. Dan runs on emotions, and loyalty is of the highest importance to him—recall that oddly impassioned growl of support offered to Will during their benighted cuddle at the opening of this past episode—and it's my opinion that Mike's actions at the auction forfeited him Dan's support permanently. In the exit interviews with Tyler, the latter has alluded to the fact that he's uncertain if Mike and Dan have healed their relationship, which leads me to believe a reconciliation is not in the books during the final stretch. Perhaps Mike does manage to bring Dan on board for a vote and then betrays him? In any event, I see no realistic opening for Mike with Rodney and Will, and I remain doubtful about Postal Maine—and so Carolyn and Sierra would seem to be Mike's sole potential allies moving forward, or at least in the next episode. And even with them, I believe Mike's still going to need to win final immunity and at least one of the other two along the way...

The thing with Dan, though, is that he has woken up to the fact that he needs a path to FTC. He needs to figure out what is best for Dan and do it. Mike's game, in spite of everything, still includes a blue loyalty aspect. Because Rodney's F4 group (now F3 group) excluded both Dan and Sierra. (Mike was right, Rodney flipped, but Mike messed up in how he dealt with it.)

Putting that in perspective: Dan wants to be sitting next to Will at FTC because Will is a goat. But if Dan cannot create a path to FTC for himself with Will he should explore his options for getting to FTC without Will.

Dan Dan the Superfan! What will he do?

Rodney changed his F3 plan though. He was very clear that Mama C. and Sierra weren't making it to the end. That had to be music to Dan's ears. Look at Dan's facial expression when Mike tries to get him to flip. That tells us Dan doesn't believe Mike for a second.

Rodney is emotional and acted out on his frustrations, changed his plans in the spirit of his tantrum. Including Sierra with Mama C was irrational, he's spinning out of control. What will he do next to further expose his unpredictability?

Dan doesn't have to believe Mike, he accurately assessed what the votes against him meant. He has woken up that he needs to control his own game. The question becomes whether Dan can make a path for himself to FTC, not who it includes.

Yea, Mike must have immunity to F3 or he's gone. They keep trying to get him out because they know he'll win jury. They need Carolyn to beat Mike, but do they want to go into F5 against 2 strong competitors? Mike won't vote out BC while non BCX available. So 2xDan, Will & Carolyn are up next. Perhaps Jeff Probst's "extra vote works beautifully" by doing nothing, except forcing Carolyn's idol & getting Dan out to boot.

I’m still waiting to see “Tom Brady” taking over the game. Instead, we have to watch this deflated version.

Reports say those are one in the same.

Good read Michel! Enjoyed it as always.

Tyler hasn't had much all season but his warning to Carolyn & Will that Dan's advantage would haunt them might be the only thing Tyler said worth repeating. Jiffy said it (the advantage) plays out beautifully and I wonder if that's because it gets out someone Jiffy doesn't mind sending to Ponderosa over someone he wants around for the finale.

I should be watched....closely.