LAST EDITED ON 03-22-15 AT 05:59 PM (EST)

As usual, great analysis, michel. It's interesting this year, after a sneakier edit with Natalie that wasn't that well received overall, the editors seem to be going back to the well and spreading the winner edit around. I was honestly expecting an overly obvious Josh or Jeremy real winner edit, but none have emerged so far.

I think we can pretty safely write off the following:

Rodney - Too negative an edit, personality-wise.
Shirin - Same as Rodney. Either an ouster soon or will be the Eliza of this season.
Joaquin - Slightly too negative edit, although not insurmountable, but they haven't given us enough strategy or really anything else to make up for it.
Dan - Repeatedly shown to not play the Social Game well enough. Thought he could turn the corner maybe, but it's clear that he's not.
Sierra - Just too invisible in the early going. And not even a Kelly-esque or Natalie-esque, "Just say one smart thing in the episode" kind of invisibility. Seems a little Jaclyn-esque since the swap.

Probably not

Will - Has the potential to be a sympathetic player (like a F5/F4 boot like Denise) but they harp on his physical weakness too much. If they boost his strategic talk soon I could see him turning it around, but I doubt it.
Hali - Jenn's presence ruins her. Her story is the exact same as Jenn's so far and they've constantly pushed her aside in favor of her ally. I've seen some people kind of like a sneaky winner edit here, but I don't see it. Not enough POV.

The Contenders

Mike - Kind of feels like the Jon Misch of this season. Fairly sympathetic player with some significant faults but is a pretty sound strategist when it gets down to it. I think we're supposed to like Mike overall but not be too surprised/upset when he loses. Very Jon Misch-esque. Have to admit, the work ethic stuff kind of scares me away from Mike. I don't think Mike came off well at all. I feel like there was too much disharmony going on at Blue Collar that they could have cut out that subplot completely. Why did they have to show it? The story kind of died there. It's so unnecessary. He had a great swap episode so he stays in the contenders for me, but I'm nervous.

Joe - Really quiet swap episode. Not necessarily dooming him (since there wasn't much to do for them that episode), but I've arched one eyebrow. The main thing for a Joe argument is that I feel they cushioned him during the Nina episode. It could be Survivor trying to cover themselves a little but it could be them just making their winner look good in an ugly situation.

Carolyn - What Carolyn has going for her is POV. We were supposed to view Max/Shirin as annoying previously, but she (along with Jenn) really pushed the theme home. If Carolyn thinks Max is pompous, then the audience is supposed to view him as pompous. They're giving her a decent amount of screentime when they don't need to. She also stole some of Kelly's thunder by taking the swing vote away from her (in a strategic sense), yet managing to not look like a total Kass. My gut says she doesn't have a strong enough social game to get there, but we'll see.

Jenn - Jenn has the most interesting edit this year. It's a little Palau Katie-ish in a way, with all the snark. Or maybe All-Stars Boston Rob, with making fun of everyone. Not a good comparison for a winner pick, but unlike Katie, we get a lot more POV from her. She dictates the Vince story, was involved with the Nina stuff, and dictated the Max story. Also a lot of game talk from her. She does make me nervous because she came off the worst during the Nina stuff, but the audience tends to have a short memory. She might be peaking too early. If other people start taking over the edit after the merge, she's probably screwed.

Kelly - The best thing Kelly has going for her is that she was completely shielded from all the Blue Collar drama. Lindsey says a Blue Collar will win the game, yet all of the Blue Collars are trainwrecks (or invisible like Sierra). Kelly, they just have making smart comments about bossiness when building the shelter and stuff like that. The last two hours had her negotiating a lot pre and post-swap. The one thing that worries me (aside from the slow start) is that Carolyn stole a lot of her thunder in the Max vote. I question whether Kelly made up her mind against Max earlier and Carolyn just saw the writing on the wall. Kelly was supposed to be the one who gets to decide the vote, but instead they empowered Carolyn. I feel they could have edited this situation differently. Kelly's definitely on the upswing, but I'm trying to not overreact to a surge away from UTR.

Tyler - Just solid little stuff in every episode. Important in the So vote. Shown to bond with Joaquin and being the middle person, which is good. Kickstarted the awkward Max/Shirin story. He also seems to be the main person on White Collar with the theme of, "Hey, white collars work hard and aren't like that" going. His Rob Cesternino-esque comment about the huddled masses also sounded really smart. Could be the Josh of this year. Very easily could be the winner.

I kind of like Tyler so far because of his consistency. I feel like the predilection from the editors are to sell their winner more this year, which pushed me away from someone like Kelly, but they might be doing another sneaky edit this year.