So first off I decided to watch Cagayan early this morning's first episode(the whole premiere) and I noticed something interesting at the beginning that I didn't see last year. When doing the three tribe introduction of their theme, they showed three each before showing a couple more. The last people shown among each three lasted the longest among their tribes. So I am going to try to use this to compare to the first episode of WA I just saw.

White Collar
Carolyn looked to have the clear winners edit but that was because she was on the chopping block. I don't know what to make of her, I think he was too OTT.

Shirin was shown making the deals and getting the last word. Shades of Natalie and Tony?

Tyler's edit slowly built up through the episode. And late it appeared he got the best edit but he did not make an alliance. The second episode though could change this as technically we saw Tony make his deal with Trish in the second episode if the premiere counts as two shows.

If the winner does not come out of this tribe based on the first episode, then Tyler or Carolyn is lasting the longest and not winning or Shirin is lasting the longest and winning.

Another thing to take note is the camera angle on Joaquin when Lindsey said the winner is on her tribe. But he did not get a good edit at all.

Blue Collar
Dan, like Carolyn, got the biggest edit but he's also the biggest target. He did acknowledge though that he put himself on the chopping block but his first introduction of guaranteeing he will be remembered. I think he's going before the merge or he's taking out the puppetmaster before it........

Rodney. Rodney is also shown with aforementioned alliance edit. He's shown making deals with the two young girls and getting the narration behind it. He also let Dan get all the focus with his OTTness and drama.

Lindsey was utr but if Rodney does not win and Dan goes before the merge, she lasts the longest but will not win. She'll finish more like Jefra as the last tribe member mid merge. Have we finally found the Lindsey that breaks the 6th out curse?

I think either of thee three could last the longest but only Rodney could be the winner or only Dan can be final four but does not win.

No Collar
This was the Jen and Vince show. No one else stood out. Will did but got nothing substantial.

However, Vince was shown very Coach-esque and that means he goes to the end and doesn't win or he gets taken out like Coach in HvV before the merge. He either had pre-merge or endgame edit. But he's not winning.

Jen was shown the most reasonable, she got sporadic screentime throughout without coming off OTT. She's lasting the longest. And she also has a deal with Vince which she got the last word after their hug and putting down his body odor and all. Which means she's the only possible winner coming out of this tribe. I sense Sophie and Coach.

Now as for the intro. The last of the three people shown in each tribal intro was Carolyn, Dan, and Vince. However, they also were the most OTT on their tribes. However, the middle intros were Max, Lindsey, and Jen. Two of them I have as contenders to last longest of their tribes. If this is the case, then episode two will have to be Max's shining moment.

After the first show the winner is Shirin, Rodney, or Jen. The second episode and I think it will be figured out. To me personally it looks like its Rodney or Jen. The two in the final four that do not win(the Kass/Spencer or Missy/Keith) I think is between Carolyn, Tyler, Dan, Jen or Vince. I think if that intro of the last ones shown of the three indicates the endgamers, I think one of them actually indicates someone's story on the tribe with the winner where he loses in the end. Is Vince Russell and Coach?

Not winning:Tyler, Carolyn, Lindsey, Dan, Sierra, Kelly, Mike, Nina, Will, Joe, Vince, and Hali

Possibly but not likely:Joaquin

The most likely winner pool:Shirin, Max, Rodney, and Jen.

Not making the final four if they don't win:Shirin, Max,
Joaquin, or Rodney.

Not making the final four at all:Lindsey, Kelly, Mike, Will, and Nina(preview).

The silent/edit underdogs:Max, Sierra, Joe, Hali. The last two runner-ups have had this edit early on.