LAST EDITED ON 03-07-18 AT 09:20 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-07-18 AT 09:19 AM (EST)

 
episode        | 1a | 1b| total 
Jacob      Mal | 3  | 4 | 7X
Dominick   Nav | 3* | 3 | 6
Michael    Mal | 2* | 2 | 4
Stephanie  Mal | 1  | 3 | 4
Donathan   Mal | 2  | 1*| 3
Kellyn     Nav | 2  | * | 2
Wendell    Nav | 2  | * | 2
Brendan    Mal | 1  | 1 | 2
Chris      Nav | 1  | 1 | 2
James      Mal | 1  | 1 | 2
Jenna      Mal | 1  | 1 | 2
Laurel     Mal | *  | 1 | 1
Desiree    Nav | 1  | * | 1
Sebastian  Nav | 1  | * | 1
Morgan     Nav | *  | 1 | 1
Bradley    Nav | *  | * | *
Libby      Mal | *  | * | *
Chelsea    Nav | *  | * | * 
Angela     Nav | *  | * | *
F20 Gonzales   Mal | 2  | 2X
F19 Jacob      Mal | 3  | 4 | 7X
*Winning Quote

More to come....

For 1b of the Premiere Jacob, our boot, and Dominic take the top spots. Jacob talks all about his plan to make a fake II to deceive his tribe, and what he's going to tell them when he returns from GI. He has the confessional of DOOM post IC, as we saw him cocky that he would get picked again to go, and his face in disbelief when Donathan is picked. Then, he comments on how he "thinks" his tribe bought the deception. Finally, he speaks about Michael, who's most definitely a great guy, but he's all about tribe strength, and he talks about Stephanie as another super fan and if he could get in the good graces with her, he could go far.

Dominic got the first 2 confessionals of the show with the knowledge that he has an enemy in Chris, and that he told himself he would have to corral his paranoia, looking for idols during the day wasn't working for him, so he'd look at anytime of day. We see him find the idol! He tells us that now, with an idol, he can take risks, and he really really wants to take risks and play the game really hard.

His second confessional is reading the clue that is with his idol, Andrea's HII, retains it's power after 5 years, can he reverse the curse. He has no intention of the curse getting him, he's going to reverse it.

His final confessional: In the beginning I felt worried about my game, but I found an idol and I feel like I am starting to dev’p a substantial rapport with alot of people in the tribe, but I heard through the grapevine that Chris was gunning for me. I want to have a conversation with him to let him know that I want to just keep things cool so we could work together. ...see little crab come out and pounce on the other crab. He continues, Chris came at me, immediately out of the gate and made me feel that he was on to me. But, I’m not gonna play defense, I’m going to make sure that I have Chris in my control. He doesn’t know who he’s messing with.

The other day I found the most beautiful shell and twine and I decide to make a fake idol, and use the paper work from the real idol, wrap it up. I believe I can earn Chris’ trust by showing him the fake idol. It’s a gamble but I’m going to have to just throw it out there and see if he bites.

Continues....By showing him the paperwork that goes with the actual idol, it distracted him from even looking at the fake idol, seeing his reaction, I knew I had him. I even told him anytime you think you are vulnerable, you ask me and I will give it to you...no problem. It’s easy, its a fagazzi...it’s not even a real idol, he can take it anywhere he wants, he can take it home with him for all I care.

Dominic does seem like an over the top Tony-like player. Will Dom be the Tony of this season? Or will he get played?

Stephanie had a large spike jumping up 2, and she's really coming into her own early....Her first confessional she tells us about herself....There is a lot of speculation about Jacob’s II, is it fake, is it real ...but when somebody knows they are on the bottom they can create opportunities. Somebody like me, I am as big of a superfine like he is but willing to use him to get myself further in this game.
Her second is more of the same, she's telling us what she has to do...I ‘m using my little flirtacious ways to get to the truth of his idol. This thing about Jacob is that he’s a strategic super fan so the way to get in his head is to talk strategy with him.

Then, finally, once she has the information, she weighs it on how it will best serve her and she confides in her bff, Jenna. Jacob divoulged everything to me, his idol is fake and then he told me that Morgan from the other tribe has the legacy advantage and that’s huge, that’s something that I can use to gain an advantage later on in this game. So now,I’m struggling, he trusts me, and those are the kind of people you want to keep around.

But, Jenna didn't seem as keen on it, but did have a confessional telling us she was tight with Stephanie from day 1 and that she would do what Steph wanted. A side kick.

Michael had 2 confessionals. Same as the first half. Interesting that he had the last confessional before TC AGAIN. Michael and Brendan are each drinking each others koolaid and his first confessional is: Even though James screwed up badly today, he’s plan B right now. then see Jacob and James by the fire....the real target is Jacob. If the idol is real it could blow up in our face so we have to get rid of him. But, we got to be really careful about how we do it.

His last confessional prior to TC: Jenna and Steph are kinda sketching me out because Jacob, he’s a shifty guy...cause for all I know he’s targeting me. And, all it takes is a couple people to flip with him and I could be gone. I don’t want to go home in this game, I’m ready to play and not get voted out by freaking Jacob, and I’m gonna be pissed off!

Apparently, Stephanie, Jenna, Libby, Brendan, Michael are still voting together.

Morgan, Jenna, Donathan, Brendan, Chris, James, Laurel all had 1 confessional.

Morgan tells us about her thoughts on GI, sending the losing tribes weakest player, leaving the strongest players to get voted off, worked for her as this AM she found in her bag the secret advantage, legacy advantage from Sierra. She reflects that if Sierra hadn't told anyone about it, she would probably not have been voted out. The problem is she has a really big mouth. Seems to me that Morgan could be destined to make the same mistake as the original owner of the legacy advantage. Will it be sooner or later?

Jenna has a confessional as I mentioned above about how Jacob has no social skills and she's sticking with Stephanie.

Donathan has a confessional on GI, about surviving on his own, being a little mountain man....at the challenge they didn't put any stock in him, but when James was struggling, he was uncomfortable but comfortable with his swimming ability, he knew he would be okay. Being out on GI is like opening his eyes and giving him confidence that he could be the person that he always knew he could be. (Reminds me of Zeke in his season.) He came out here to play and he came out here to WIN....winning quote.

Brendan's confessional: If you are going to make up a story, you better think it through, Because Jacobs story of this II just seems a little far fetched to me because there is no chance at all that this S nerd forgot the note that came with the HII at GI. Brendan is intuitive.

Chris, the other leader, also has one confessional in regard to Dominic and his confiding in Chris re: his idol. Dominic showed me an idol after lying to me that he didn’t have an idol. He said he wanted to take me to the end. Something about it is just off.

Continues....Look, I don’t trust him and if my instinct tells me something is off I have to go with it and I am not going to get voted off out of this game going against my instinct. If he has an idol, it scares the hell out of me and it’s up to me, as a leader, to eliminate it.

Chris could be a worthy adversary to Dominic. He should trust his instincts.

James had one confessional talks about how his parents in Korea always taught him to give his best effort, but at the IC he choked. Now people are probably thinking, "Let him go, because he cost us the challenge."

Laurel, a self proclaimed member of the "not-pretty people"...So far the strong and the beautiful have been running the show. They formed a sort of little click without me and that worries me. But, suddenly the people that are on the bottom have the opportunity to flip the vote on them....see Jacob James and Laurel...I just got to make sure that it’s the right time.

I have to wonder if this season is going to be reduced to the strong/beautiful vs. the weak/nerdy. ugh.

No confessionals for the second half include Kellyn, Wendall, Desiree, Sebastian. No confessionals in the entire first 2 hours of the show = Bradley, Libby, Chelsea and Angela. At least Bradley and Libby are seen talking but Chelsea and Angela? Who are they?

So, at this point Dominic is in the lead with confessionals. Historically, the winner does not have the most confessionals of the show unless they are Boston Rob or Tony V. Is Dominic a little too much too soon? He's definitely a player to watch and he's found himself in a nice little rivalry right out of the gate. Finding the idol at night proves he's here to play, and he has the family incentive going for him, as many winners before him.

Stephanie is certainly impressive. She's a master manipulator, she's a super fan, she's social, she's got options and she's got a side kick. Clearly, she's going to be a player with substance.

Michael. He is the epitome of the pretty and beautiful. He's been mentioned as a target multiple times. He's firmly with Brenden, who does have some good intuition. He ought to make it at least to mid season/merge? But, he's found himself at the bottom already....?

Donathan is a little lamb who's found himself in the adventure of a life time. He reminds me of Zeke who also surprised himself with his survival skills, but unlike Zeke, I don't think his IQ is quite up to snuff. He got his way with the first vote, however. If he can make it to merge, he could be a player at the end, and with a looming swap, it could be in his favor. He's getting early attention?

Kellyn and Wendall who both were given 2 confessionals in the first half, fly under the radar for the second half. I think these two could be formidable players later on.

Brendan and Chris are the 2 leaders. Brenden has been on the losing tribe twice and found himself to be voting with the majority, with his side kick, Michael. With a swap this week, I think he'll be safe for a while.
Chris is with Sebastian, and they are skeptical of Dominic. This story is starting/building but not ready for resolution yet. I would say both Chris and Sebastian will be safe for now.

James has had 2 confessionals, 1 in each half of the show. He's weak in challenges, and he's worried.

Jenna is Steph's sidekick, I don't see her in trouble at this point.
Laurel seems social enough and a contributor, worker. She's straddling the strong and weak alliances. Options.

Desiree told us in her only confessional that she was not good at puzzles, but boy, was she good at shooting hoops. I don't see why she should be a boot choice at this point.

Sebastian is jovial, and seems like a social Ozzy type. He's taken a liking to Chris. He should not be the target, yet.

Morgan: She was strong in the water challenge, quick to release the balls. Jacob gave her his legacy advantage and Stephanie knows it and will use it to her advantage. Morgan told us she has a big mouth?

Bradley and Libby have been seen and heard, but had no confessionals. Libby is right smack in with Brendan and Michael. Bradley seems in with Dominic and Wendall. I think both have stories to flesh out later, perhaps?

Chelsea and Angela have really not been seen. Angela volunteered to sit out of the challenge because she's a poor swimmer. Chelsea....?

So, last season the pattern for the boot seemed to be hidden boots. Folks who had a decrease in screen time, seemingly settling down were booted. If that pattern were to hold in this season I would put Donathan at the most risk.

Definitely difficult to use the confessionals for predictions as there are many with not much to go on. So far we have a couple things: Donathan has had growth already and he's a weak link. James is a weak link. Dominic vs. Chris. Brendan/Michael vs. weak.
Morgan has legacy advantage and Stephanie knows.

Considering the above, this is sketchy at best:

Safe: Dominic, Stephanie, Kellyn, Wendall, Brendan, Jenna, Laurel, Desiree, Bradley, Libby, Chelsea

Sight risk: Michael: He's been a boot decoy for 2 TC's....is his number up?
Chris: Dominic is his adversary, yet Chris seems intuitive....?
Sebastian: He's happy go lucky, but he's in with Chris, one way to get at your enemy is to cut out his sidekick?

At risk: Donathan. He's had his "A-Ha" moment. He can be a mountain man and hone his survivor skills to survive. He does have social skills ~ Laurel, James. But, with a swap, I do think that strength could trump those with less challenge skills, and Donathan is weaker at challenges, he told us this himself.

James: He's ripped, but weak at challenges, and he's owning it. Everyone knows it.

Morgan: She has a legacy advantage and Stephanie knows it, and she told us that she has a big mouth. Is she destined to make the same bad decision as Sierra did? Sure would fit with the theme of the show?

Angela: With no confessionals, Angela would be a hidden boot. Last season was the season of the "hidden boot". The only time we heard her talk was when she volunteered to sit out the challenge because she was a poor swimmer. As I noted earlier, this early in the season, this younger crowd apparently is favoring challenge strength....