Even though I still believe that Osten's wanting to quit and subsequent "stuff" could be the lie, I'm liking your analysis. But there are two things that don't make sense.

If, as JP says, the lie is something they probably won't know about until they actually watch the show, how is it that Burton knows enough about this "lie" to know that it hasn't happened yet. If they really don't know that it's a lie, they would have no idea whether or not it "happened" yet, am I right?

Now, my initial (before I was in the Osten is lying camp) though about the BL (if related to the BR) is that it would be more likely to involve the liar lying about him or herself...leading to their eventual demise as a result of said lie (which the players wouldn't have to know is a lie to decide that whatever it is would be reason to boot him/her). That's when my Osten theories first starting making sense...if Osten lied about his abilties and wanting to quit, we know that Lil and Ryan S. were both pretty ticked that he wanted to quit so soon and basically gave up. So, if Osten were somehow involved in a final 3 scenario in which Lil (after coming back of course...if any of that junk is true...who knows?!?!) had just won the final IC, she could say "well Osten, you gave up on day 3...I don't think you deserve to win the million so I'm choosing (insert name name here) over you". That sort of lie or some sort of moral lie (lying to garner support, lying about some reason you could use the money, lying about a person in your life back home and when the person finds out they are furious, etc.) seem to be the most likely candidates in my book.

I do wonder how Burton knows what the lie is. It is not as if the survivors have some prior viewing of the season (they don't...unless it's changed recently anyway) where they could see how it plays out.

So I'm wondering what sort of lie JP would think the others wouldn't know about.

AND...maybe, just maybe...it's BURTON who is responsible for the lie. If he's SO dang sure when it happens, wouldn't he be a logical choice for the liar? It doesn't seem all that far-fetched...of course that would imply that he somehow returns to the game. I don't know...this lie stuff is starting to drive me bonkers and I just hope I'm not in for a huge letdown when it actually is revealed to us.

Boo!