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Not sure if there has been any discussion of this theory. Rupert somehow purposely destroys or ruins the food supply. (Recall the earlier Morgan comments about sand in the rice.)
He does this in order to assure his longevity because he seems to be the only one who knows how to catch fish and without the rice etc. the group needs to keep him or starve. (Recall his comments about making himself essential to his team and his comment that he would lie, steal, etc. to win.)
He does not tell anyone that he is responsible for the food destruction and probably goes to great lengths to try to salvage some of it. He only admits it in a confessional or else we see it through a random camera shot.
This type of lie would be "brutal" (destroying the food supply is dangerous and brutal) and "brilliant" in that it could insulate Rupert from a boot.
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