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I think the biggest reason I don't think Osten is the liar is that for it to be a "Big Lie" people have to believe it. While people may have believed that he wanted to go home and that he panicked while swimming, this is only a BIG LIE if it leads people to think he will not be a challenge threat post-merge. I don't think this is the case. Morgan STILL sees Osten as their strong man and best hope to win physical challenges. Maybe they are stupid (if it is not a lie) to still think this, but I don't think Osten has convinced anyone he will be a push over in the challenges.
Within Morgan Osten is fairly safe because he seems to have alliances with Tijuana and Andrew (and possibly Ryan and Darrah as well). If Drake gets control and starts "pagonging" Morgan, I would think Osten would still be the number 1 or 2 target because he is still obviously the strongest of the group. What exactly has this lie (if it is a lie) accomplished?
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -