Ok, during my down time at work, I cut and pasted all the pertinent quotes regarding the BL, BR and twist and re-read them closely, with all of them together to find the good stuff. Some things are fairly clearly fact:
- the twist is the ghost tribe and is happening this week/next.
- The Big Lie and Regret haven’t happened yet.

Now my conclusions (with things I based them on):
- the Big Lie and Regret will be happening during this 2-part episode, and will involve Osten. Put these together:
1) For a time, he says he fell for "the greatest lie ever told on 'Survivor.' "It's brilliant. It's brutal and it's brilliant and it totally suckered me," says Probst, who, naturally, won't divulge who told the lie or what its ramifications were. "My first reaction was 'Motherf----r,' and then my second reaction was 'Wow, that's amazing.' "
2)A "very, very regrettable event happens," Probst says. "And I think the person to whom it happens is going to regret it, and I think they're going to regret it more than they have any idea (they will) right now. I couldn't believe it when it happened, and I can't wait for it to play out."
3)JP this week: Osten has an interesting next 3 days. The next episode is pretty interesting for Osten.
4) from snewser:
In the previews for Episode 7, suggestions are that he's ready to quit yet again. "This morning he checked out. I can see it in his eyes," Andrew says in confessional. "He's thrown in the towel again."
5)JP on the BL:"We've been waiting for something like this to come along since we started this thing. We don't tell the Survivors anything about having to tell the truth about their occupations or anything else for that matter. (Pauses) You know, I've always said that if I did one of these things, I would come up with some off-the wall profession and tell everybody that my mother is deathly ill and my father is about to die."
6)Probst says Dalton, an art consultant from Virginia, takes the prize for "squirreliest" contestant ever. He's responsible for "the greatest lie ever told on Survivor," says Probst, who's heard a few whoppers.

Now keep in mind that I am still 100% against the ‘Osten is faking being a wuss’ theory. BUT, after considering this information, could it be that Osten REALIZES he’s being a wuss, then uses it to his advantage?

Suppose in this episode with Ghosties, they give the option to switch tribes, or have some kind of shuffling. Osten realize that people think he’s a wuss and might vote him out, so meets with the other odd-man out Jon to establish a strange alliance. Jon, rumored to be responsible for the lie (see #6 -- even if it was retracted, there was probably a reason this conclusion was jumped to by the reporter), hatches a brutal and brilliant plan to “save them”. Osten jumps ship --- to Drake. Jon, however, double-crosses Osten, whom he sees as a threat, and tells him he’ll be safer with them, but really, they just want to vote him out and/or use him for his ‘strength’ HA!

Big Lie: Jon convinces Osten to come to Drake to save himself. Brilliant, because they want Osten out. Brutal, because it works. ‘mother f-----r’ quality? Yes. Could JP have believed it… yes.
Big Regret: Osten jumping ship. Regrettable because Morgan would’ve voted out Ryan or Darrah, NOT Osten. Maybe Osten makes jury, so he’s still waiting for it to play out?

Wow, I’ve overthought this…. But it seems to fit. What did I miss, BR and Misto?