Here are the links to the first three of the BL/BR/BT threads. I’ve taken some of the biggest conversations and kind of summarized them. Please feel free to let me know of any other theories or ideas that should be in this initial post. I’m getting exasperated finger drumming from Nailbone so I wanted to get this posted sooner rather than later.

BL/BR Part 1
BL/BR Part 2
BL/BR Part 3

(all the JP, MB quotes are in those threads so unless there’s an outcry for bringing them to this new thread, I’ll let you read them on the others. You peeps decide, I can edit if need be)

The Osten is Lying About Not Being A Good Swimmer Camp - There is a small but vehement faction of people that believe that Osten is the liar. His lie is that he’s been telling people he can’t swim when in fact he is an excellent swimmer. He’s been lying about this the whole time (costing his tribe a challenge by “drowning” to appear weaker than he is just to make it to the merge. Once into the merge he’ll suddenly learn to swim and using alliances made early on, work himself an immunity run and make it to F4 if not F3 (fitting with some spoiler info that he makes F4). This would seem to some to be the perfect fit for JP to say brutal and brilliant at the same time. JP was taken in by the lie because he actually watched and almost sent in rescue crews when Osten was “drowning”. It’s brutal because Osten was taking it upon himself to make the choices of which times he’d be weak and not swim well meaning that his tribe would lose the challenges making Morgan complete losers. It’s brilliant because by being the “strong guy” for most things on Morgan, Osten gave himself job security while at the same time appearing weak and easily manipulated to keep himself from being booted.
(Personal Note: I must admit, I’m finding myself more and more drawn to this theory as time goes on as we see nothing Big Lie like)

The Jon is the Liar Camp - There’s speculation galore regarding Jon being the liar. Thoughts ranging from Jon tells a lie regarding sex between 2 people that didn’t happen (in order to break up a voting bloc) to him spinning a sob story about a family member that’s dying so he needs the money (a la Jenna). There’s also thoughts that Jon lies to manipulate someones ouster, from Trish to Rupert, (but then what would be brutal or awesome about that) and the possibility that with all of his smart mouthing and bragging about women and sex that he’s actually gay. (again not much brutal about that but it’s fun to speculate).

The Lillian Isn’t Really A Scoutmaster- there has been some speculation that Lillian’s scout troop doesn’t actually exist. That this is/was her lie to seem more needed in the survival area. This would really only come into play if she’s brought back into the game so we’ll see on this one.

These are just a few of the theories being worked and tweaked right now. There are others that involved the possibility of Shawn and/or Rupert hiding the fishing spear and things like that but most of them don't seem to have merit anymore therefore I didn't summarize them.

Please feel free to summarize any others you think are worth more speculation.

--hopes this all plays out soon or she's gonna have to resort to talking about the pelican again