episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | total
Scot       To Go D  | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 28
Aubry      Ch Go D  | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 26
Tai        Go Go D  | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 24
Debbie     Ch Ch D  | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23X
KyleJason  To Ch D  | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22
Cydney     Go Ch D  | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 3 | 17
Michele    Go Ch D  | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16
Joe        Ch Go D  | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12
Julia    Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 10

Eliminated
Darnell   To        | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer  To        | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz       Ch        | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb     Go        | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia    To        | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna      Go Go     | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter     Ch Go     | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal       Ch Ch D  | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Nick       Go Ch D  | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 21X
Debbie     Ch Ch D  | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23X
 

Debbie blindsided me, but when we look back at her confessionals, we do see that she had a dip, from her greatest amount of confessionals, 4, to 2. That should have made her at risk, so I feel that I overlooked her on her edit. So, lesson learned. The numbers speak for themselves.

This week we have some shuffling going on in the ranks, and Aubry leaps up in the totals to SECOND, right behind Scot. If you look at Scot and Aubry's numbers they have a similar pattern. I believe that Scot had a more consistent pattern in the beginning of the game solely because he was in the camp that lost the challenges and went to TC more. But, if we look at both their edits, they were both under the radar at episode 4. They both started their arc in earnest in that episode, Scot with a bang with 5 confessionals, and Aubry with a blip of 1. But, from then on their patterns seem to alternate between high spikes of confessionals and low points. Up, down, up, down. Very interesting indeed. They are both narrators, we are getting their points of view.

For Scot, his 5 confessionals were: the girls pulled a good one and blindsided us basically. Clearly the status of the Brawn alliance is done. It’s now Jason and I, and Tai. Then, about the sabotage: The main reason for the sabotage is to weaken them because it could cause somebody to crack and I’m hoping it switches things up. So, it’s time to make life as miserable as possible for everybody else. We took the machete, we took the ax and went into the jungle a little bit and we hid the tools. Certainly, I’m not just going to lay down and say hey! Good game! The only thing we can do right now is fight so we are going to fight and if fighting means making everybody else miserable in the process... that’s what I’m doing. So, I’m listening to all the little: “We got this, we’re good. We’ll just cook the coconuts the old way and we’ll be fine.” I was mad already but that was the tipping point. I was like you’re bragging again and now I’m steaming so I’m going to do something stupid. Next, he talks after they win the reward...Julia, Tai, myself, Jason and Mark the chicken ate Chinese food and had a couple of beers. Everything was really, really good. The best part about it is getting a chance to talk to Julia and pick her brain. And, finally: If Julia decides to be our little guardian angel and hopefully she votes Cydney, it will go 4-2-3 and Cydney goes home but if Julia decides to go with the group she’s with we are pulling out all the stops, we are saying we have idols. We are pulling out everything we can think of to make sure we stick around. We don’t have an option.

Here are Aubry's confessionals, she was under the radar until after the RC, when she starts b!tching about Julia: Julia and the boys won the reward challenge and as soon as I saw she was going with the boys, I knew she was trying to get a better position for herself. She’s playing both sides but I see right through Julia. I can’t trust her as far as I can throw her. Next: Julia isn’t someone who wants to have alliances. She wants to ride the middle to the end. She’s playing both sides but sometimes the guy in the middle of the road gets run over and I hope it’s her. Then, Debbie does not go along with the Julia plan...There is a part of the sabotage that is certainly childish but Scot and Jason were being deliberate today. That was to throw us off the scent and to aim votes at them because they probably have idols. My gut tells me with a big blinking sign that Julia has got to go.......continued: It’s killing me that Debbie is going with her emotions right now. Scot poured water on that fire because he wanted a reaction and I want to tell Debbie: You are being emotional but you have to be logical right now. Deb is putting her foot down and I’ve gone with her on a lot of things but I believe firmly that Julia needs to go home. Then, she tells us her plan is foiled: The worst possible thing happened: Julia won and my whole plan that I was positive of went out the window. Just out the window. What do I do now? Then, her reaction: Oh no! Debbie says this is the plan right in front of Julia and that really scares me. In this scenario, the vote would be three for Scot, three for Tai and three that the boys decided but Julia has been playing double agent pretty well and if one person goes awry the whole things blows up and somebody you didn’t want to go home; totally gone. We totally are hearing Aubry's thought processes, we see how she gets to the Debbie vote: Debbie isn’t listening to any logic. She completely trusts Julia and this far into Survivor I need someone who is logical and I know is not going to change course. This is extremely difficult for me. I don’t want Debbie to go but when people show me who they are, that’s what I am going to go with. Then, finally her thoughts prior to TC: Right now, we need to talk to Julia and that’s pretty scary because now Julia, the person I wanted out, is the person I need right now.

The story is being told by both sides, and from Aubry's and Scot's vantage points. They are key players I think. I cannot overlook the amount of confessionals that they are having, which puts them both at risk, but I have a feeling, like many previous winners, that one of these two could be our winner?

Tai is also of interest. He had 2 confessionals for several weeks, drops to one, now spikes up to 3. He's suspect for me as well. His first confessional was in regard to screwing up at TC and voting Jason and how to cover it up, but knows that within the three of them, they have 2 idols and the super idol. Tai voting for Jason tells me that he's conflicted about going with the big guys, and this episode shows him resigning himself to go with them. His second confessional is about how he is not like them, he knows this is a game and recognizes all the strategies, but he is not like that in his real life, he's not like that, but he cannot control what they do. Then finally, he resigns to go with them....I woke up in the middle of the night and I said: “You know what? I am committed to the boys. I was upset when Scot put out that big fire but it’s necessary for me to step back from what I’m feeling compassionate. I like them but at this point, if this is war, we are going to make the other side uncomfortable. So, I decided to put out the fire. Right now, it’s them or us. The evil side of me rarely come out but it does.

Tai was teetering, he voted with the girls, but it failed, so he goes back to what he perceives as the stronger side, the stacked side, the dark side, and joins them.

Julia also had a spike up from 1 confessional to 3. Noticeable for her edit. Julia has been the most hidden of all the contestants with the least amount of confessionals. So, that tells me that they are not investing as much into her story. So, I can't help but feel she is not the longest term of our contestants. Her confessionals: I decided to go with the boys because, at this point in the game, I know that pulling in Scot and pulling in Jason can be really super beneficial to me. It’s time for me to start making moves and playing my game. Then, At this point of the game, you really have to be thinking long term. I definitely have my other alliance that I feel confident in but keeping Scot and Jason to the end, they have betrayed people, they have caused chaos around camp might be a good idea because at this point anyone on the jury would not vote for them. Finally, I definitely feel that having my hand in different alliances has given me a lot of power. I have the power right now to send Debbie home and I have the power right now to send Cydney home. Jason, Scot and Tai really want Cydney gone, I consider Cydney as a huge threat because she kind of talks to everyone but Debbie is someone that I want gone eventually so it’s kind of who I choose to vote for.

Julia's final confessional spells it all out to me. She feels that riding the middle of 2 alliances has given her power, aka arrogance ~ the kiss of death. We ALL know what happens to people that sit on the fence. We see in this episode that Aubry is onto her big time, and then next week we see that Scot calls her out on it as well in a promo. She's toast, imo. If not this week, then next. She's a dead DAW walking.

What's interesting to note is that while we can assume that Michele and Julia are tight, Michele is not getting pulled into this drama at all. Which, I think, is very positive for Michele.

To me, it's almost that I hear Michele's words coming out of Julia's mouth...my game, "it's time for me to start making moves"....but still Michele is kept separate from Julia.

Joe had a spike from 1 to 2 confessionals. He spoke about the girls woke up and couldn't find the tools, and him not wanting to take Debbie out because their alliance was such a viable force. Joe, just not on the same page...

Jason peaked at the merge with 5 confessionals, then dropped to 3, now dips to 2. Hmmmm? This could spell trouble, but Idk. His confessionals were about psychological warfare, keep them weak, look for cracks...and, his hopeful confessional: In today’s challenge, we won. It changes on the flip of a dime. It’s what makes this game so wonderful! We’re back on the upswing right now. We’re not on the top of the mountain but Julia’s got us trucking back up it. We got a prayer.

Next, Cydney. Her post merge arc started with 1, peaked last week at 5, when she got all the credit for flipping the girls vs. the boys, then she slips back down to 2. First one was about Julia, BS radar, and you can't slick a slicker in any direction, and her final one was she and Aubry are on the same page, Debbie will take us down before the boys.

Michele stays even with 2 confessionals. She tells us that she is firmly with the girls because she can't tolerate the boys behavior.

So. This week every one but Michele has some kind of risk, so I will try to break it down.

High risk: Julia, Tai. Both Julia and Tai are fence sitting. But, I think that Tai has covered it up more, and this could be because the big boys need him and his HII the most. But, we see next week that he's being influenced by Aubry as she calls him out, you are not like them.
At risk: Cydney, her peak could have been flipping to the girls. Jason: He's back on the upswing right now but he could be right back on the down swing if his girl, Julia, bites it, or if his boy, Tai, falls off the fence on the girls side. Aubry and Scot both had extreme spikes, which makes them at risk, but I have a feeling they are okay.
Very low risk: Joe
Safe: Michele