LAST EDITED ON 05-06-16 AT 07:19 AM (EST)

episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | 10| 11| total
Aubry      Ch Go D  | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 35
Tai        Go Go D  | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 34
KyleJason  To Ch D  | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 29
Michele    Go Ch D  | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 24
Cydney     Go Ch D  | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 22
Julia    Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15X
Joe        Ch Go D  | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | 12
Eliminated
Darnell   To        | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer  To        | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz       Ch        | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb     Go        | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia    To        | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna      Go Go     | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter     Ch Go     | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal       Ch Ch D  | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Nick       Go Ch D  | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 21X
Debbie     Ch Ch D  | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23X
Scot       To Go D  | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 33X
Julia    Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15X
 

This episode had a lot of players with shifts in their confessionals. The largest shift was with Jason who spiked 5 confessionals moving from 2 to 7. He was the one blindsided and his first couple of confessionals tell us about it. He lost not only his idol but his partner in the game and notes that from here on out he will have to scramble.He notes he can't let them see me angry....while Tai appears to have a "big ole heart", he sure flips a lot. Then he tells us that he will do the same to him, and he'll deserve it. He won't give up, he'll do it for his family, he'll find a crack.I'm at the bottom but there is a way, there is always a way, but need to find it in time. Then, he tells us that he has a plan for Tai, with Michele and Julia but he needs Cydney, I was once tight with her, we need her or I am screwed. Need the numbers to get Tai, doesn't mean he's going, could play his idol and one of us goes home.

Jason is at the heart of the story because he was the one that was the most blindsided and lost the most. Clearly, a turning point in his game. But, I have to say that I looked at the content of his confessionals quite positively. He's not giving up, his purpose is still strong, and he'll find the crack and make the plan. He was very calculating and composed. Well played.

The next largest spike was from Michele. She went from 2 to 6. Her first 3 confessionals were after the RC, she told us her plan to get back in touch with her alliance, make them trust her, and to reconnect. She does it by being happy, humble and staying sane....she's now reintegrated. The next 2 confessionals were about her feelings when her alliance wanted to vote Julia out, and then her relief when she and Cydney were going to vote Tai instead...it was killing her. The last confessional of the episode before TC was hers: Alot is riding on tonights TC with me, I have a decision to make regarding Julia and my alliance, I don’t want to backstab either, I’m struggling, all I can do is do what’s best for me and play my game.

All I can say is that we will see if what she ended up doing was best for her game play in the next episode. Frankly, I think she's doomed. When I review her voting record I see that she's voted out her closest ally twice! Nick and then Julia. Hmmmm?

Cydney also has a spike from 1 to 4, which is indeed a red flag. Her first confessional is narrational regarding the RC..."I was just cheesing". Next was narrational as well, we need to keep our relationship with Tai strong right now, but later we can use Michele. Her third confessional is a bit arrogant, at the end of the day I put myself in a great position, options open, if I have to go against my alliance to get Tai out, I will if it's best for my game, not a we game, a me game, a win-win for me." Her last confessional: Michele and I have options, we can either blindside Tai, or Julia.

Cydney indeed has options at this point, but time is running out, and soon she will have no options left. We see that she is calling out Aubry in the next episode, would you vote with them or with me? Cydney may have just missed her window of opportunity? Like Michele, we will see.

Tai had the largest drop down in confessionals going from 7 to 3. He first tells us about the smallest guy taking out the biggest guy, this is him taking control of his game. Next, is the empathetic confessional about betraying Jason and wanting to make amends with him. We see him do it, but we see Jason handle extremely well while Tai, not so much. His last confessional talks about hearing his name and not being comfortable with Michele and Cydney and that he will play his advantage or HI and not go home with them in his pocket.

As long as Tai is in the game with the HI and the advantage he will have a target on his back. He is the shield that most will want to get rid of. He's clearly at risk.

Aubry dropped from 5 - 4. Her first confessionals were narrational, yay, we got out Scot now it will be easy to get rid of Jason, and wow, I'm in a helicopter. More narration: Michele has proved herself. Her next confessional was the dynamic one: Since the reward it’s 4 plus Michele. It seems like a super easy vote right now to get out Jason, but I am not sure that that is the best move right now. Jason is a physical threat but he's also a very polarizing character, there will be people that love him and people that hate him on the jury, so I don’t think he can win. Julia, otoh is good at challenges, she’s proven herself to be strategic enough to be able to dodge and manuever to keep herself in this game. Julia needs to go.

Clearly, steering the vote to Julia is engineered by Aubry.

Joe: Status quo with 0 confessionals.

High Risk: Jason, strictly because he had such a large spike I have to put him at high risk. Frankly, I look at this as the start of his final arc and personally, I think he will be safe for the next episode.
Michele: Michele has the highest spike ever with 6 confessionals. She made a grave error in telling Jiffy that she memorized all of the symbols and numbers when winning the IC. She was unable to make the big move last week to disarm Tai, and turned instead on her closest ally in the game. We also know that Tai thinks she is the biggest threat. Very high risk indeed.
Cydney: She had the chance to make a move as well but didn't. Now her time to make that move is running out. We see her pressing Aubry to make a decision on who to go with. Is she pressing a little too hard? If she doesn't win immunity, she is in trouble, her game play is getting noticed.
Tai: Tai trusts Aubry now, but as long as he has the HI and the advantage he will be the biggest target in the game. If he doesn't use either of his advantages this week, he'll be toast.

Safe: Aubry and Joe. Aubry is at a pivotal point. She is the one that will direct the boot again, perhaps, but she's torn. So, the question remains, what will Aubry do? Joe...of course he will do what ever Aubry does and apparently, he's not in the cross hairs this week as long as there are "real" players to consider.