LAST EDITED ON 04-03-16 AT 11:21 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-01-16 AT 08:45 AM (EST)

episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| total
Scot       To Go D  | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 22
Tai        Go Go D  | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20
Debbie     Ch Ch D  | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 19
Nick       Go Ch D  | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19
KyleJason  To Ch D  | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 17
Aubry      Ch Go D  | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17
Michele    Go Ch D  | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12
Neal       Ch Ch D  | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Sydney     Go Ch D  | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 9
Joe        Ch Go D  | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 9
Julia    Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 6

Eliminated
Darnell   To        | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer  To        | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz       Ch        | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb     Go        | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia    To        | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna      Go Go     | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter     Ch Go     | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal       Ch Ch D  | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
 

I think the last two episodes are really starting to flesh out the players. There were several with huge spikes in their confessionals this week, some it bodes well for, while others it may be ominous. It's easy to see that Nick's, Aubry's, and Michele's arcs have started in earnest. Some could be end game players, while I do think at least one may be signaling a big blindside.

Nick: Nick always seems to have a very astute confessional, like this one:

During the merge feast, before we get a little tipsy, but I am just listening left and right, seeing who is getting along and what information is out there and it’s obvious the brawn are going to be arrogant like they are in charge and nobody can stop them . See Neal, the brains are not gonna work with that type of person because it’s just they are the exact opposite. They want to be in the shadows. Right now, my true alliance is with michele. We’re in a great spot within these 2 tribes but I’ve learned, slow it down, read the people. Let them keep bringing you information and then you just slice them up. Then we see Nick just chop a piece of bamboo, for emphasis. This symbolism is encouraging, I thought.

This confessional is followed by another astute one...Neal and Aubry pitched the fact that, hey, we just need 2 more of your beauty, Nick, can you get in Michele? Yeah, I can probably get in Michele. So they want it to be the brains vs the brawn. Just like I thought. It makes sense to go with the brains but if you corner yourself, if you put yourself in a position where your back is against the wall, that is not good Survivor.

Then Nick starts to tell what happened with him and the Brawn, and he quips, thanks for bringing me right into your alliance, you are such sweethearts...after he is told that Neal has the idol. We hear Scot tell him, just keep this between the three of us, not even Cydney.

Then Nick tells us that he does't like Scot and Jason's over confidence, but it's great for him because he thinks they will never see the big blindside coming. He then tells us why he is reluctant to work with Debbie, because he doesn't want anybody in the tribe to have more power than him.

Next he starts talking how this is the most important TC because after this the dominos will fall. He tells us that it's Brawn vs Brains and that he finds himself right in the middle. We are like the pretty girl deciding to go to the dance and leave with the quarterback or the valedictorian, he loves it.

He tells us that he is leaning toward going with the brawn because they will always be over confident, and that is when you do your most damage.

Up to this point, Nick is just telling us his position upon the merge, he recognizes that it is the most important time because it will determine which way the dominoes fall. So, so far, I can relate to his account. We even see he and Michele discussing what to do at this point and I felt they were definitively on the same page. Michele verbalizes to Nick that she thinks Jason has pissed so many people off that he couldn't win, and that no one would give Scot the money as he's already got money. So, all sound rationale to stick with the brawn. But, then Nick's confessionals take a turn for the worse, he becomes arrogant... he notes: It makes sense to go with Brawn right now because I do believe I can manipulate them, snaps his fingers. Just like that, and beat them in puzzles. Just like that, they are just idiots. He then talks about how he likes Aubry, but she will be going at TC. His last confessional talks about how because of some lucky medical evacuation, Aubry lives another 2 or 3 days.

I have to say that I loved the way Nick got Michele to admit what she thought first, and she noted what she thought about Jason and Scot. He got her to spell it out and he agreed. Then, when he said, so who tonight? It was Michele that mentioned Aubry.

Taken into consideration Nick's confessional spike from last week and then all of these this week, it appears to me that his arc has peaked, however, and he is very ripe for a big fall. He's cocky, thrilled to be the pretty girl (next weeks title is the brawn vs. the pretty people), and he had the best performance at a tough IC, which has got to put him on everyone's radar. No doubt about it, Nick is ripe for a big fall.

Aubry: Aubry had 8 confessionals. She was a boot decoy last week, and this week she was the prime target. She had a lot of confessionals telling us about her strategy, every man for themselves, then how elated she was to be rejoined at the merge with her brain tribe, to back again telling us how if the brains didn't get the beauty's on board they were going down, to how thrilled she was that they could now start playing, they had an idol, let's go! Finally, how her number one ally was taken away and how she didn't think she would do all this crying on Survivor, Neal left her hanging, but she has to pave her own way. Her last confessional was stellar. We saw all the ups and downs for her this episode, her "roller coaster ride", we saw her work hard to forge relationships with Nick, etc, and make plans with Neal, then hang with Debbie and Michele. We saw her working it. Then the final confessional was the icing on the cake. Aubry is a player and we see her playing! Is she a contender? I have to say this episode she was the star and I think it could possibly be her story!

Jason and Scot both had 5 confessionals this week. Scot, went from 2 to 5. He has been a solid player the entire time, has always been at the heart of the drama it seems. First with the brawn tribe, then with managing the switch so well teaming with Tai, and now with organizing the reunion. He is still giving us a lot of narration. First he can no longer trust the brains and will be picking them off one by one now. Then, he's elated at making the merge, back with his former brawn, it's like making the playoffs! Then he gets very arrogant with this confessional:

The brains are screwed we are just going to pick them off one by one till they are gone. Best case scenario is that Neal plays an idol cause he’s paranoid, but Aubry goes home anyway. I feel confident in my alliance of beauty and brawn right now because everybody seems to feel very comfortable saying, why not?! We’ll just take the brains out and then once we get to 7 then we will just figure it out. Even though Jason and I already have it figured out...evil laugh....hahahahaha.

His last confessional is about Jeff arriving at camp, it's narrational, Survivor is tough. Historically we have to remember what has happened to narrators at the merge...

The cocky confessional about picking off the brains one by one and then when they get to 7, they've already figured it out underlines that the brawn DO feel over confident as Nick has observed. It's validating for Nick, so it seems that the over-confident brawn will be set up for a nice fall as well!

Jason, went from 0 confessionals last week to 5 this week. He was seemingly in "control" of the brains and calling the shots and more than one person noticed. First confessional is about knowing that Neal has the idol, he's pleased as punch right now because he holds all the power. Next, he notes the boat arriving at Chanloh beach. Next, he talks about having to get back together with the brawn at the merge and being open with Nick, as they need him. Neal is the main focus. Then he's thrilled to know that Tai has the other idol because when you put them together, super idol, and they are unstoppable. More arrogance: Beauty always goes with the jocks. Always. It’s just the way of the world. The beauty’s don’t date the brainiacs. They are at the dance with us and we are just shoving geeks in lockers right now. Sorry brain. Again, Jason's confessionals validate Nick's observations, so I think they are being set up for a fall as well. More mention of the super idol and being unstoppable makes me think that when Jason is voted out, that Tai will choose NOT to make that invincible super idol for Jason. Wouldn't that be fun?!

Debbie still names both Scot and Jason as the biggest targets for her. Michele also calls out Jason for being controlling and the one that thinks he's on top.

Debbie went from 2 to 4 confessionals, because we have always seen the game through her eyes the entire time....is it her story? Debbie tells us she's thrilled to make the merge, knew that she would, she loves change, she will pull them all in, they are dangling, I'll pull you in! Notes Aubry was feeling badly about Peter, worried, no need for her to feel that way, we are tight. Next, she is on the offense, and knows that she needs 6, so we see her attacking her offense with Tai, then Nick. But, Tai, Nick, and Aubry all notice it too, and don't like it. (I think are they dismissing her once again?) Her last confessional was about how tough it is, and if she loses Aubry that is game changing.

(No comment on losing Neal who she earlier said she was like salt and pepper with, among other things, lol! )

While some may see this as Debbie's down turn, I still see Debbie as solid, and safe. Despite her playing too hard and too fast, she's dismissed by all of them, with the exception of Nick, who noted, She almost takes strategy in her own hands for the brains tribe and I don’t want anybody to have more power in this game than I do.

Michele went from 4 confessionals last week to 3 this week. Still a strong presence. First she was thrilled to make the merge, she was in a good position currently with her tribe but worried about what is going on at the other tribe. Next, she notes that Jason is calling the shots for everyone. It looks like brawn and beauty are working together but she is not discounting working with Brain at all. Brawn is way to controlling. This is a very wise and astute confessional. Her last confessional was about she would love to work with Aubry and Debbie, but right now she has to figure out what is best for her. Then we see her and Nick discussing their options.

Michele is playing a very good game. She's laid back assessing everything and letting others speak for her, letting others be the shield. She's strong at this point.

Tai stays solid at 2 confessionals. First one was about the numbers lining up at the merge, he has to trust someone and that is Scot, and he knows about the idol. Next was about not trusting Debbie, too aggressive, sees through her, he's not a fool.

Tai is stable.

Joe drops back down to status quo from 4 to 1 confessional: His lone confessional was in regard to Tai likes the chicken better than them. Comical. He's just fluff. With the merge, he flies well under everyone's radar, for the time being.

Cydney jumps from 0 to 1 confessional. The confessional she had was that she noticed the bulge in Neal's pocket. Is this to tell us that she's the observant one. She's being discounted...

Julia goes right back under the radar, but she almost won the IC, so that was impressive. She's safe for this week.

This week, I feel strong that a brain will NOT go home. I think the most at risk for this episode are one of the BIG boys: Nick, Jason, Scot. The bigger they are the harder they fall. Should be fun!

Everyone else: Safe

I have revisited my post again, and when I re-read it, I think I will add Debbie in the at risk category:

High risk: Nick, Scot, Jason
At risk: Debbie. She has a spike in her confessionals and she's seen overplaying aggressively, and others see it as well. Jason wants to get the Brains out 1, 2, 3. They may think that Aubry has Neal's idol, he passed her his coat, so they may aim for Debbie next.