Without further ado...Title: "This Is Where We Build Trust"
Having a little fun with anagramming...
"Bed Leisure With Wits Hurts"
"Whew, Uh... Redistributes List"
"Sir Wildebeest, Thru With Us"
"Sleuth Wish... Twist Reburied"
Let's see which one of these comes true.
JPTease:
1. Alliances are definitely "up for grabs"
2. the immunity challenge demonstrates how incredibly demanding this game is on the mind, body, and soul.
Misdirection:
1. Another castaway trades their reward for security in the game.
2. Also, the first idol of the season comes into play during a chaotic Tribal Council
Before getting into the play-by-play it is apparent that the loss of Jeremy will rock the alliances to the core, suggesting that multiple combinations are now prevalent that were NOT there before.
We're also teased with a particularly grueling Immunity Challenge as well as a chaotic Tribal Council, complete with idol reveal.
But of note... not one mention of a blindside.
The show itself will begin with the post-TC fallout from voting out Jeremy.
The "majority" alliance went behind the back of their fellow allies and voted out a serious threat, in a 5-3-2 vote. It's clear that the majority did their best to insure they controlled the vote even when they were knowingly not going to use an equal number of voters. They needed a majority so informed Keith to vote for Reed and told Natalie they were voting for Keith. Meanwhile Missy/Baylor, Jon/Jaclyn and Reed... voted out Jeremy.
A move that even a sloth can appreciate...
So, knowing he got votes, Reed will try to do some damage control by stating that the guys must stick together.
Then Alec notes they just need one more number. (Wow, he CAN count.)
So for the rest of the episode it appears as if both Alec and Reed will do what they can to get that extra number (OR they both will flee to a more stable scenario).
Cue also the conversation that takes place between Natalie and Missy (and Jaclyn), where she openly wonders if she can trust them.
Missy will also run a fair amount of damage control and her best bet is to place the blame directly with Jon.
This is most likely why Natalie later notes that she want's Jon to get a taste of his own medicine.
To begin the scare, Natalie looks to be using the last clue she and Baylor received to once more check the camp for an idol.
Some have suggested that she indeed finds the idol. I am on the fence about it. Of course, if a clue was given, then production MUST hide it where hinted at, so it's completely possible. But in order for Natalie to give Jon a taste of his own medicine, she won't need one.
Besides, as much as she is NOT on the same page as Jon, it is my belief that Missy/Baylor and Jaclyn will convince her that focusing on Jon is not the right move right now.
But before we get into the potential targets/strategies we have some events to cover...
Reward Challenge:
Because we have 9 peeps, the Survivors will be split into 2 teams of 4 with 1 sit-out.
Having only 1 confirmation as to team placement, the rest of the members and which team wins will have to be deduced through various other clues.
With having an odd number of castaways, I believe another pick-'em style choice will ensue. And dependant on whom is leading us out with the picking will determine how the teams will lie. Missy was unchosen last time, I doubt that happens again.
Team Yellow: Jon ~ yellow 2 ~ yellow 3 ~ yellow 4
Team Teal: teal 1 ~ teal 2 ~ teal 3 ~ teal 4
Sit-Out: member 1
What is noted is that one of the winning team's members will forgoe their reward and offer it to someone else.
I know Natalie has learned her lesson, she won't be doing that again. I also know that no one will be trading their spot for Jon or Jaclyn.
I doubt Keith, Wes or Alec would be on either the giving or the receiving end of this reward swap.
Reed noted that he knew it was a good move but would he do the same thing the following episode? Possibly.
However, I think the probable outcome is either Missy or Baylor (or perhaps even Jaclyn/Jon) consider giving their reward to Natalie.
Exile Island:
I doubt Jon will be sent again. With Jeremy's revelation that sending him to EI was kinda moot, considering Jon already had the idol, it will be clear that whichever team wins they will send either Keith, Wes, Alec or Reed. To tire them out before the IC.
At the moment, I'm leaning towards Reed. but if we are to look at the IC mat placement...
It appears as if Wes, Keith and Alec look the MOST tired. There is no way the exilee is one of the women and sending Jon again seems like something no one would consider smart.
Everyone has brought their water canteens. Wes, Missy, Baylor and either Reed or Natalie are the only ones to have brought their bags.
Immunity Challenge:
This challenge will have the castaways ... enduring mind, body, soul and temptations to win.
While this challenge again seems fit for a Reed win, it should be noted that those that "seem" best suited to particular challenges end up failing at them. Also that in a couple of the promos we get shots of 8 of the 9 castaways at Tribal Council.
So, barring the use of an ImmunityNecklace-O-Matic, it appears as if the unseen castaway is our Immunity Necklace winner.
Congrats, Wes.
Tribal Council:
As we see it:
Jon/Jaclyn and Missy/Baylor are a strong 4. Adding Natalie to that insures a 5 person majority. So in all honesty, nothing else needs to be done to insure that one of "the guys" gets the boot. I try not to think to far ahead nor use strategies that seems to be too brilliant for these castaways, so the addition of 1 or possibly 2 more "numbers" doesn't really need to happen. However, we see some "alliance shifting" going on anyways.
Natalie may want to teach Jon a lesson but it won't happen.
Reed and Alec are searching for their extra number/safety net but who are they talking to and can they trust them.
Plus, we were teased with the "an idol comes into play during a chaotic TC" blurb. I think it's possible that someone plays their idol, but I also think that while some are having a difficult time figuring out what's going to happen, is because no one told them what to do. While the idol may get played, it won't effect the majority negatively. So the only chaos is the chaos that "the boys" go through because they can't stick together, nor find anyone else to vote with them.
Doing the deducing again...
Safe
Missy: Missy is in the power position now. This allows her to make the final vote and to keep her daughter safe at the same time.
Baylor: Baylor is quickly becoming the best goat for quite a few people. I think she'll have a pretty easy ride to the finals from here on out.
Wes: He is wearing the immunity necklace. No better way to be safe.
Jaclyn: Her partner is a MUCH bigger target, so if he goes then she might be in danger in the future but for this week, it's just not feasible to dump her as a number and embitter her idol-wielding boyfriend... yet.
Semi-non-safe
Jon: Since there is no blindside, I'm thinking he is just fine. BUT it must be noted that he is now Public Enemy #1. Would it be possible to blindside him? It could, but not this week.
Natalie: Same would go for Natalie, BUT considering that she was tied to Jeremy, it is possible she sabotages her own chances by playing too hard, becoming a nightmare to be around or otherwise messing up other people's games. Which from the sounds of it, the only person she's trying to mess with is Jon.
Keith: It could be Keith. However, if he honestly felt like people were ready to let him go, he'd use his idol. Successfully bouncing someone else out. He has certainly played his cards close to his chest, but he has also entered each TC with the advise of a little bird. "Whew, I tell you what. Tribal, that was a biggie tonight. Reed was going home. That's the last word I got. I even voted for Reed."
However, that little bird lied to him last time and I'm doubting that he will believe the twitter from here on out. The question now becomes will he use his idol on someone else? Perhaps his son, Wes. But Wes does not need it this round.
In danger
Alec: What's most interesting about both of these last two guys is they are both seen making inroads/deals with people outside their original alliance. Alec goes so far as to openly commit to Reed, then openly commit to Jon/Missy.
Reed: Reed, as well, cross-aligns with the majority AND vows to stay firm with "the boys". His confessional..."I'm trying to decide how I can go deeper into this game right now, whether it's sticking to the Jon type group and just picking off the people who are in my alliance, or taking out Jon. That would be a really great play because Jon thinks he's alpha male here."...really lends itself to be seen as the flighty person he has the reputation of being. Plus, he won't be able to target Jon and since that won't happen, I'm thinking the others will want to rid themselves of him first.
SOTS Bullet list
"Some problems in the world are not bullet-izable." -H.R. McMaster
"Real courage is when you know you're licked before you begin, but you begin anyway and see it through no matter what." -Harper Lee*Reward Challenge: Yellow team wins and Baylor gives her reward to Natalie.
*Exile: Reed
*Immunity Challenge: Wes
*Tribal Council: I doubt "the guys" will end up voting for each other, but I also doubt the women will be getting rid of Jon.
*Bootee: Reed
* “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” -Winston S. Churchill