Million Dollar Decision

Welcome to the episode 7, State of the Spoiling, the one stop shop for collecting the consensus across the boards as to the events of the episode. Just a quick reminder that it's a great time for all of us here at Blows to go back and give our guidelines
the once over, they really are the reason we all have such a fun, exciting, and CIVIL board. As in the immortal words of S1, Colleen,

Be nice and play fair!

Last weeks episode is documented in blow by blow fashion here in the East Coast Update thread. The tribes were shuffled to have 3 couples plus Keith, and a starving tribe of 1 couple and the rest singles. The power couple went with the couple best suited for them Missy/Baylor. At the RC, Baylor lost but Missy told us she was in good hands with Natalie at EI, because Missy knows that she “has Natalie, that she is with me”. Forshadowing for the merge perhaps...Missy + Natalie. Next we have Jeremy making snarky comments about the brainiacs in his tribe that traded in the tarp for more rice...then we see them feasting on their shish-ka-bobs...then we see the miserable Julie suffering and threatening to quit with the horrendous rain storm. This means that choosing the food over the tarp was a dumb move because you will lose one of your own because of it...foreshadowing that Julie is toast, imo. Then, Dale made the play with his fake idol, but in the end, Dale went home, while safe votes were thrown at Keith. Dale follows Kelly to loser lodge.

Million Dollar Decision

Our title, Million Dollar Decision, could and most likely is the big question of the episode. Some think that it refers to Julie, who some spec may quit this episode. We see Jiffy at Camp Coyopa, the sun is setting over the west...Here he is noting...”You just lost a member”...

Note that Jiffy is wearing the same outfit...(again!).

Who can tell...Jiffy wears the same outfit every freakin' 3 days!

We know with the promos later in the week that Julie is sneaking something in her bag and the tribe is onto her...more on that later. Another possibility is that we find out that Wes has cut his foot open...here. This leads us to consider that Wes may be a medivac down the road? I don’t know though, if this ends up leading to a medivac I would suspect that they would have not cut this from the show footage...?

Misdirection Clues, Tweets, and
Press

1.The pressure of the game forces one castaway to consider throwing in the towel Clearly this is Julie. Last week she told us that “I can’t handle another night like that!”

2. One move will really annoy most of our audience and most of the players

Funny thing is, this also sounds like Julie. Clearly she is hoarding or sneaking something from the rest of the tribe, and they think it’s the most selfish move one could make in Survivor...it will make them MAD!

*I also want to plant a seed that it could be Keith. Keith was heard saying in the preseason promo after episode one saying he had done the worst thing in Survivor history...could Keith have planted something in Julie's bag? It crossed my mind! Also, we have this suspicious vidcap of Keith right smack in the middle of a promo...

Squeezed in between the words "SCANDAL" and "What's in the bag?"....hmmmmm? Ole Keith!

3. alliances start to crumble with the impending merge

This is a fun one. Let’s look at the alliances so far.

Jon/Jack + Missy/Baylor + Keith.

I lump Keith with them...he does not seem too concerned about getting votes thrown his way. I believe he indeed trusts Missy, but, blood is blood, will he dictate that Wes go with him, or will he defer to Wes and go with Wes/Josh/Reed, or will they each vote with their own friends? HMMMMM?

Jeremy/Natalie + Julie

Wes/Alec + Josh/Reed

We hear Josh counting his chickens before they are hatched in the promo...Josh plus Reed, plus Wes and Alec, plus Keith most likely, that’s 5. But, the tease tells us that alliances will start to crumble. While the first ep post swap showed us that Jacklyn didn’t know which couple to go with, Baylor, whom she didn’t trust, or Dale, who had never done anything to her, clearly it was Jon that tilted them to stay with Missy and Baylor. The alliance not seen is really Missy + Jon. Kelly told us in post show interviews that they are very close, like mother and son. We can also see that Missy and Keith are very close. Missy does seem to be the glue that is holding them altogether. We also know that Missy thinks “Natalie is with me”. That is a big foreshadowing clue. Michel agrees.

I think Missy will be the key. Also, remember that we have another clue confessional from Baylor...

Baylor: <camera confessional>: Thank you so much for helping me. Now I have to vote you out.

I do think this confessional is regarding her relationship with Josh...She latched onto Josh from the beginning, but after he wrote her name down at 2 different TC’s, she admitted that she thought he was sketchy...I think she will defer to her mother, Missy, and have to end up voting against Josh. This is a big clue....a clue if Julie quits, and they do go to TC, most likely the votes could go to Josh...so, Josh most likely will not win the IC...it all hinges on if you believe this confessional is before or after the IC. I am leaning on it being after the IC...fwiw.
So, with the merge they could have new alliances that could end up like this:
Missy/Baylor, Jon/Jacklyn, *Keith/(Wes - he has options)*, Jeremy/Natalie, + Julie
Vs.
Josh/Reed, Alec, Wes/Keith

*Keith and Wes are the question. WE see Keith talking to most likely Josh...

I think this is indeed Keith talking to Josh(but, maybe not, someone also suggested it could be Missy, but her hair is longer and not layered?). Most likely post IC drama, when Josh makes his plea with Wes to vote with them against Jeremy. Keith is repeating Josh's words here...I think this could be misdirection, in that Keith could be saying this, but still planning on voting with Missy and company, OR, he could be with Wes, Josh/Reed, Alex. If he is, them planting something in Julie's bag could be genius to try and get her as the boot target. If she doesn't quit, I think Josh will be going, if she does...then they may defer TC?

4. one castaway commits the ultimate sin
Again, I think this is also referring to the person that does something that really annoys the audience and the tribes...most likely Julie stealing/hoarding food...

Here is the verbiage of the first promo:

Jeff Probst:  Next time on Survivor...
Baylor:  The Merge!!!
Probst:  ...blood and water finally merge...
Natalie <camera confessional>:  Everybody knows now, it's game on.
Probst:  ...and nobody is safe.
Baylor: <camera confessional>:  Thank you so much for helping me.  Now I have to vote you out.
Keith <talking in the shelter>:  He's gonna be coming after every one of us.
Jeremy <camera confessional>:  If you take him out, it's over.
Josh <camera confessional>:  I will go out swinging and fighting.
This promo depicts a rivalry and possible square off between Jeremy (singles), vs Josh (couples)

Later the promo’s subject matter shifts:

Announcer:  What's...
<Julie putting something in her bag>
Jon <camera confessional>:  If I can't trust somebody in my alliance, it's ridiculous!
Announcer:  ...in...
Jaclyn:  If you take something and hide it, it makes people mad.
Announcer:  ...the bag?
...instead of Jeremy vs. Josh, now it’s about Julie stealing or hoarding something...Jon is noting that she is in his alliance and he can’t trust her, and Jacklyn notes that people know what she did and they are mad! This must be referring to the annoying move that really gets the audience and the players mad, but could it also possibly be the ultimate sin? Or, will Keith commit that later?

Then, the next promo expands on the smuggled something in the bag...

Announcer:  A tribe merge celebration leads to a Survivor Scandal and it's all because of...
Announcer:  What's...
<Julie putting something in her bag>
Jon <camera confessional>:  If I can't trust somebody in my alliance, it's ridiculous!
Announcer:  ...in...
Jaclyn:  If you take something and hide it, it makes people mad.
Announcer:  ...the bag
Jon:  Where's Julie? <snoops in Julie's bag>  Ohhhh, you gotta be kidding me!

...we see Jon going in to have a look. We see that Natalie, Jacklyn, and Josh are all there lying around the shelter...

Whatever it is that is in that bag they are finding out one way or the other. I do think that Jon finds something and let’s them all know, and here is Josh’s reaction to what Jon found...Jon says this after finding it...Ohhhh, you gotta be kidding me!

Later Jon has a conf about it: If I can't trust somebody in my alliance, it's ridiculous!

Reward Duel

Most likely the Reward Duel will be waived for the Merge feast. Here is my spec on the timeline:

The tribes will wake up early par usual and find treemail...

Natalie reads: “Gather your valued belongings and follow this map to the headland trail. Continue to the top of the hill where you will receive further instructions.”

Both tribes gather their stuff and hike to the top of the hill dividing the two camps...thanks Tribe for this pic.

Note that Josh, Alec, and Wes (his foot), are all seen reacting to the merge news, they had been resting together - watch who people sleep next to!

While gathering their belongings, and packing up, we get this critical vidcap...

and then this confessional from Josh, “We got our treemail that basically said we were merged. It was a mixed emotion feeling at that point, because we needed to get rid of Jeremy, and we didn't do it when we had the chance, because we've not gone to tribal with this full tribe. So, now it makes it a little more precarious to get Jeremy out, but we can do this.”

Then Josh and Reed go off to count their chickens, “Alec and Wes are with us, and Keith would totally come over...”
This is countered by Jeremy’s confessional:

“At Hunahpu Reed and Josh were in charge, and they ran it, and I took a backseat. That's alright, you know. You guys have your fun.” See Josh/Reed kissing, then he continues: “But it's merge time, now it's time to go, and I want to crush them.”

Stage is set, it’s Josh vs Jeremy. Cut to the tribes arriving at the merge feast:
Julie really seems to be the odd women out...look how she’s on the perimeter or isolated within the group...






They go to Camp Coyopa, they manage the merge drama. I think the Julie hoarding/stashing something in her bag drama occurs prior to the IC. Whatever they suspect she is doing, Jon does go look in her bag to see what’s there, and clearly he finds something. He tells the others there, and it’s a mortal Survivor sin...the most selfish thing, that makes them all mad!
Then, cut to the IC...

Immunity Challenge

The immunity challenge vidcaps are all
located in our Vidcap Thread,
here, and the name of the challenge is “Take the Reigns”. We can see the challenge, here.

The challenge is set in stages...first stage is closest to the base, shortest reigns, and it’s endurance as well. WE see that the ones that make it to the last stage are:

Jacklyn, Jon, Keith, Natalie, Wes, Josh. Tribe notes that it goes from sunny to cloudy over time. The ones with cloud cover could be toward the end of the challenge...but, we really have no way of knowing. However, the cloudy ones still left include: Keith, Natalie, Wes, and Josh, but Natalie looks like she is just about out, leaving our winner as either Keith, Wes, and Josh.

The timeline continues..after the IC, we get drama back at camp...Julie knows she is in trouble...we hear her comment on it, she’s not in the best place. Here is Jiffy...wearing the exact outfit as he wore at the IC, and he’s at Coyopa saying, “you just lost a member”.

So, the million dollar question for us is...will she quit? I am leaning toward no...we know that Jiffy wears that outfit every 3 days. We know that Josh is going for Jeremy and vice versa. But, the worst thing ever that makes them all mad is going to be an easy choice to boot this week. I think she will make it to TC, and be voted out. This is saving the removal of someone for later in the season....will it be Wes? Will his sting or wound get infected???

Results
RC: No one, Merge Feast instead
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE WINNER: Wes, Keith, or could be Josh
BOOT: Julie, one way or the other, by quit or boot, she’s toast! ]

But, if she quits and they continue on to TC, then I think it will be one of these two, most likely Josh...

*See the Media thread, located here,

Dabo’s Confessionals Thread.

michel’s the Characters and their Stories.

Last, but not least, go and
VOTE!