LAST EDITED ON 12-02-14 AT 10:31 PM (EST)a.k.a. 2 hour show with 2 back-to-back episodes.
a.a.k.a. Episode 11
1st hour Title: "Kind of Like Cream Cheese"
2nd hour Title: "Still Holdin’ On"
JPTease:
1. No hype? Hmmm...
Misdirection:
1. After 30 grueling days, the remaining castaways battle for a spot in the final six.
2. Also, for the first time ever, castaways give up their chance at Reward in the middle of a challenge
3. and one castaway seeking revenge sets their sights on the game’s strongest player
1st Reward Challenge:
Good Ol'Fashuned Coconut Chop! Gosh, I love these alliance revealing chalenges. The results of which carry on through the tribal council debates and usually serve to wake up someone who may be on the bottom of a totem pole.
From the looks of things, and using FloPo's wonderful deductions; Alec, Baylor, Reed and Keith do NOT win the reward challenge.
Going further...
...it looks like Jaclyn still has not received a single chop, where Jon has received 1 and Missy has received 2.
Now, please note in the next cap, JP is standing behind Missy.
He is usually standing at the opposite end from the survivors during the challenge. My thought is she wins the RC, or is chosen to go along on the Reward with the winner. This is when she "attacks" Reed. Probably because Reed is making her feel badly for not picking him (since he did just pass along his last reward win to Missy) or some other event that has Missy going on reward and Reed missing out on reward.
1st Exile Island:
As noted by FloPo, it appears as if Jon has a sooty face, not only at the IC line-up...
but later on during his fight with Jaclyn as well...
My thought is that he is sent to exile. Probably in hopes that he finds another idol and can further protect the majority group.
1st Immunity Challenge:
Castaways stand in front of a box with a paddle balanced on a pole and ball. Using a ball they must roll onto the paddle and get it to balance within 1 of 6 notches/divots. Repeating with more balls until all 6 divots are full.
The last balancing challenge had Keith as the winner. My guess is he does it again.
1st Tribal Council:
Now, there was a small promo that aired during the football game which stated that there would be a purple rock situation.
Let it be known that this ad used clips from BvW1.
We have been treated to a similar "during football promo".
For Ep3, the promo touted 'two shocking Survivor firsts' . The footage being from BvW1 and highlighting the sumo match between sibiling brothers Aras and Vytas. While episode 3 did have a Rocker boot, it did not contain 2 survivor firsts.
Therefore, it is more likely that the production *whizkid* for CBS sponser-time during the football games is about as cued in to whats really happening as Drew was. The tapes say "Blood VS. Water" and "Blood Vs Water II" and the dumb-dumbs pushing buttons and inserting tapes aren't bright enough to figure out the difference.
Therefore, no purple rock.
So...
Natalie despises Jon (but was able to shelve her feelings for a stint in order to deplete minority numbers.) She got him to play his idol and now knows that he won't have another one. (Or does he?)
Missy is teed-off at Reed. NO ONE makes jokes at her daughters expense and this will cause Reed to climb to the top of Missy's hit-list.
Jon and Jaclyn fight, right before tribal council. If Jon plays like he has, he will bend to Jaclyn's will.
The Boot Deduction:
Safe
Using the future challenge promo to help us out, it's clear that Jon, Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor and Natalie ALL make it to hour 2.
Missy: Missy, with both Baylor and Natalie in her back pocket looks to be a lock for F6.
Baylor: Baylor, mostly thanks to her mother's protection, will not be in danger of bootation.
Natalie: Natalie not only has an idol but also has a bit of a buffer with Baylor and Missy. In order for her to go, Baylor and Missy would have to blindside her and with all of the other targets available, I doubt she'll be booted.
Jaclyn: Because of their fight, I do believe that both her and Jon will temporarily take their eyes off the prize and may end up getting the snuff from more industrious castaways who've taken advantage of their split. While I can't see her as target #1 of the two of them, it might be due to the hitch that Jon is immune or has an idol.
Jon: Jon is supposedly Public Enemy #1. Or at least that's what the last promo promised. The current hype is that "one castaway seeking revenge sets their sights on the game’s strongest player", well of those left Jon certainly appears to be the strongest player remaining. Will the sights actually focus in on him? More importantly, will Natalie be able to get both Missy and Baylor to dump him now, or does Natalie follow through with her tease that she "could" change the game by siding with the guys.
Semi-non-safe
Keith: If the majority is still interested in removing the opposing minority and one of Alec or Reed wins Immunity, it may very well be Keith next. But I doubt it. Because the immunity looks to be a strong point in Keith's past.
Alec: As part of the minority group, Alec straddles a sort of boot-barrier where he is not seen as a threat but it's nearing time for him to go as a non-majority member. I do believe he has a couple of people in that minority that are bigger targets, so he should be safe at least for one more episode/hour.
In danger
Reed: It really does look like his time to go, excepting an immunity win.
2nd hour Title: "Still Holdin’ On"Using this cap as reference...
2nd Reward Challenge:
Another endurance challenge that has the castaways standing on a small wooden block and holding on to a pair of handles above their heads.
The last endurance challenge was similar, so I imagine there may be an additional aspect I'm missing.
However, Reed and Natalie were the best last time so I'd give it to Natalie this time.
2nd Exile Island:
No Idea.
2nd Immunity Challenge:
Originally played during the first Blood vs Water (Tyson won) the challenge will have the castaways holding on to a rope attached to an unbalanced table to keep the table level. They would stand a wooden block on end and have to hold on to the rope to keep the block upright. They would then retrieve one of nine wooden blocks from three stations while keeping all the blocks on the table upright. Once the block was retrieved, the castaway would have to stack the block on the table and retrieve the other blocks. Should any of the the blocks fall, the castaway would have to return to the table and restack the blocks. The first castaway to have all ten blocks standing for a three count would win.
The only table visible is Jaclyn's table and she has 7 blocks placed, is heading back with the eighth and she has lost balance of her table so she will have to rebalance all 8 blocks. You can see three blocks still on an opponents table to her right, as well we can see Missy heading back, to her left.
No call as to who might win (although I doubt it's Jaclyn) and who they share it with, as well the exilee choice is beyond my pondering. Something to consider though is the tease about...castaways give up their chance at Reward in the middle of a challenge.
This isn't a super rough challenge but it's possible that some of them might "give-up" their chances, specially when the balancing act gets difficult.
2nd Tribal Council:
Getting a little ahead of myself... Traditionally, the family visit happens some time around the F6/F7 and since this is a double episode, I'm doubting that family visit will happen during hour two, specially without any tease about visits from loved ones in the promos.
So, it appears as if the 12th episode will be our F6 and might indeed be the time to have the family visit this season.
With the info from our dear friend TeamJoisey to consider, it was stated that Jaclyn just misses this family visit. Which under these circumstances would mean that she is booted at F7.
Also of note, the "majority" can indeed safely slay one of their numbers and still retain majority after the dust settles. So if ever a time was ripe to flip-flop again, this is it...
The Boot Deduction:
Safe
Missy: Prancing her way into the finals.
Baylor: Following momma duck into the finals.
Natalie: This girl's still got an idol.
Semi-non-safe
Keith: My thoughts are that Keith is the target, without an idol he will indeed be in danger. BUT, does he somehow get involved in a coup that severs the power couple in half?
Alec: If all else fails; Keith wins immunity, Baylor/Missy and Natalie decide to stay with their majority, only then is Alec in true danger.
In danger
Jaclyn: Team Joisey says it's so. Or at least that she goes right before family visit. If Family visit is at F5, then she's safe for the second hour.
Jon: By far the strongest player left. Do the others think he might have another idol?
tribe's Bullet list
Hour 1*Reward Challenge 1: Missy, Natalie or Jaclyn
*Exile 1: Jon
*Immunity Challenge 1: Keith wins
*Tribal Council 1: Majority+ against Reed.
*Bootee 1: Reed
Hour 2
*Reward Challenge 2: Natalie
*Exile 2: I doubt they'd make Jon go again, but then again, maybe they would.
*Immunity Challenge 2: Total stab in the dark...Natalie?
*Tribal Council 2: The alliances shift and Jon/Jaclyn become big targets.
*Bootee 2: Jaclyn
* Sorry, no mid-show SOTS for me. I got some 'other' work to do.