Title: "Let's Make a Move"

JPTease:
1. Ah, next week holds a special place in my heart because we have a challenge that was created and designed by a very special challenge producer. Austin Russell is a thirteen year old from Texas who made a visit to location through our friends at Make-A-Wish. His big dream was to contribute a challenge that would end up getting used on the show and boy did he deliver! Not only is it a cool challenge involving a huge teeter-totter and buckets of water, but it ends up creating unexpected reality on the show. That is always the hope of a challenge — that it changes the game in some way. This is definitely game changing for one player. Read into that whatever you want: It’s gonna be fun!

Misdirection:
1. A shocking tribal council leads to one of the biggest blindsides of the season. (as compared to John and Jeremy)
2. Also, a sudden ankle injury could lead to a medevac just days before the game ends ("could" means won't, but...)

To begin, we have the fallout from the last TC.
People are inquiring as to Natalie's intentions...

She tries her hardest to alleviate any fears by claiming a mis-communication occured.
Natalie: Just the way Tribal went, I knew I had to pretend to mess up and accidentally vote out Alec instead of Keith, and act my ass off to convince them that it was a mistake.

And Baylor is in the know.

Baylor: It's hilarious watching Natalie be an actress toward Jon and Jaclyn tonight. If they were smart, they would know Natalie knew exactly what she was doing.
It appears as if her excuse is effective.

Jon: That tribal was a little bit of a debacle. I guess we didn't talk enough going into it, and Natalie didn't fully understand who she was voting for. It's unfortunate that it happened here because Keith really is a threat in immunity challenges. I mean, that's a big, big deal. That potentially could screw up a lot of plans.

The next morning we'll probably have an inserted conversation between Natalie, Baylor and Missy wherein Baylor and Natalie inform Missy of their intentions to vote out Jon.

But guess what, those conversations happened roughly 9 days prior.
The episode where two idols were played at TC and Wes was bounced out. There were votes for Jon-from the guys, and the majority split their votes between Wes and Keith.
Missy squashed the hopes of Baylor and Natalie and the girls saw to it that they stuck to the plan.
By warning Jon (and Keith) to use his idol.
But 3 cycles later, is Missy still feeling the same way? We'll see...

Reward Challenge:


JP: "Not only is it a cool challenge involving a huge teeter-totter and buckets of water, but it ends up creating unexpected reality on the show. That is always the hope of a challenge — that it changes the game in some way. This is definitely game changing for one player.

This quote sets the tone for the game changing aspect for one of the castaways.
Game changing would tend to lean towards a huge step forward or backward for a player, so we need to keep our eyes on those players whom could stand to make a remarkable move that will either spell their doom OR help them get into the F3.
But before that happens, Our teams are...
Team Teal: Jon ~ Keith ~ Missy
VS
Team Yellow: Baylor ~ Jaclyn ~ Natalie

Tethered together the teams race through an obstacle course; haypile, over/under hurdles, water buckets, rope teeter-totter, waterbucket lever, gate to puzzle area.
It appears that right off the bat, the 3 young ladies get off to a great start.
More likely due to Missy's lack of coordination, and because of this I'm guessing that the 3 younger ladies win the RC.

However, and as hinted at earlier, someone makes some sort of move that either benefits them greatly or ruins their game completely.

This is also where my story starts to diverge... into the veritable pother of tid-bits from every corner of the spoiling universe.
Buy a ticket, strap in safely and let's take the ride!

Exile Island:
First thought is that it has got to be one of the guys going to exile. They should be on the losing end of things and while the choice for exilee can be "anyone", my bet is that appearances need to be maintained within the alliance, so... Keith should be spending the next few days at Exile Island.

However, it's also possible, since looking at this image of Natalie, that somehow she either choose to go to exile or is chosen to go to exile. At the IC lineup...

She's looking a bit sooty (much like Jon last week) and a bit bedraggled (like everyone whose ever been to exile).
I'd like to point out that IF it is indeed Natalie that goes to exile, I'm pretty sure it's her that volunteers to go. She has an idol and has been more than willing to pass off her rewards to others or volunteer for exile before. (Could this be the change in game?)

Immunity Challenge:

Balancing on a teeter-totter keeping steady a heavy cone. If the cone leans to hard in one or the other direction it will fall and the survivor will lose.
As noticed, the apparatus looks very much like a patented ankle-wrencher. I'm surprised that even more people aren't complaining about all sorts of twists and turns to their ankles.
Alas, it is just Missy. She definitely hurts her ankle.
She cries and a medic is sent for.
They do some initial examinations but state that a true diagnosis will have to wait until they can get an X-ray. In order to get that X-ray, Missy will have to quit the game.
If Missy has hurt her ankle, she is pretty much out of the running for any future win of any challenge... Missy does not win Immunity.

And while pre-game teases state that Missy will either have to stab her own child in the back OR fall on her own sword, it's very clear that Missy is not going to let anything get in her way of reaching the F3, including a twisted ankle.
IOW, she stays. She works through the pain, refuses an x-ray and continues on.
And just to let you know, She's doing fine now...

even her Dr. says it's okay. This shot is from her twitter account back in October. Full mobility 2 months after the incident does not bespeak of a broken anything.
When I broke my metatarsal bone in my foot I was in a cast and unable to work for nearly 4 months. Full mobility didn't occur for another 2 to 4 months. And if I'm correct, a foot heal is much easier than an ankle heal.
Regardless, she doesn't win immunity.

If Jon is a possibility for bootation, then... Jon does not win Immunity.

If Keith had immunity then we would NEVER receive a confessional where Jon says he trusts his alliance, as the alliance would HAVE to devour itself... Keith does not win Immunity.

Of the three remaining ladies; Natalie, Baylor and Jaclyn, I seriously doubt Jaclyn is capable of winning, which leaves Baylor and Natalie.
Between these two ladies, normally, I'd give the edge to Natalie. In fact, she may do it. But if she does indeed end up going to exile, then she will be depleated energy-wise.
So, for this week, I'd give the edge to Baylor. More just a feeling than any hard proof, but I think the layout of the rest of the episode hinges on Natalie, Jon and Keith without Immunity.

Tribal Council:
Baylor is Immune and not going anywhere. Now, her and her mother are the power couple.
Missy wants to keep Jon.
Baylor wants to keep Natalie.
Jon/Jaclyn want to boot Keith.
Baylor/Natalie wants to boot Jon
BUT, what does Keith want?

Some have speculated many various and intricate idol plays and voting scenarios and while it's definitely a possibility, I've learned throughout the many past seasons and especially this season that the survivors themselves DON'T like scenarios that are too complicated.
The fact that Natalie had to answer for her vote at the last tribal council, when really either choice between Alec or Keith was fine, proves that they don't feel comfortable making decisions based on a lot of little intricasies taking place. Too many things can go wrong.
So, I'm guessing that no one plays an idol. Both Natalie and Jon will feel confident enough going into TC, that neither one will feel the need to play their idols. Saving them, instead, for the F5 when they HAVE to use them.
But before we get to the deductions it must be noted that CBS is touting a blindside at TC.
JP even goes so far as to restate the tagline..."Outwit, Outlast, Outplay" and then adds... "this game is wide open!"

I've said it elsewhere and I'll say it again... in order for the game to go from fairly predictable to wide open, one of the power-players will have to be leaving at F6.
Our current power-players are Jon and Natalie (and some have said Jaclyn as well. I don't see it but I may as well include her as she is tied to a powerful player.)
But since I'm in a fighting mood, let me just say a few things about Jaclyn.
The TJ spoiler states that Jaclyn's father was asked NOT to make the flight to Nicaragua, at the last moment. While Family visits have happened at any moment from F7 to F4, the overwhelming majority of them happened at F6. Since Jaclyn was not booted at F7, it's still possible that this spoiler is true. However, the statistics for Family Visit are as so... F6 is at about 75%, F4 is at about 15%, F5 and F7 are about 5% and not at all is also at 5%. So my thought is that Jaclyn is booted at F5 (which makes sense with the amount of possible idol play that has to happen then.)
However, IF idols are played and Jaclyn is somehow bounced out, the mere lack of idols would indeed cause JP to state the game is wide open. Everyone is on an even playing field, so to speak.
But anyways...

The Boot Deduction:
Safe
Missy: She'll be riding the sympathy wave into the finals. PLUS, she's got her hand in everyone's pocket. Everyone left in the game at this point is there because Missy wants them there... excepting Jaclyn.
Baylor: Baylor's standing with the majority of jurors bespeaks of someone who did not have the time to soften the edges of her gameplay. Because of this, everyone left in the game wants to bring her to the finals to insure a win against her.

Semi-non-safe
Keith: Keith should be dead man walking. BUT he's also an advantageous vote IF the majority alliance is ready to pick off one of their own.
Jaclyn: I put her as semi-non-safe because she has been part-n-parcel to the duo of swing-votes that have shaped the jury. Jon is the power in the power couple, but her bootation would mean idols were played and the once powerful Jon is now singular. However, I also know that all players left know that Jaclyn doesn't stand a chance in the fianl 3 and will probably want to keep her around as another goat.

In danger
Jon: Jon has been riding in the comfortable shade of Missy's protective wing for a few weeks now. He also has an idol and an extra vote in his arm. BUT, he's been in the crosshairs for many many cycles now as well. Is Missy ready to sever the apronstrings? OR does she really still think she can beat him in the finals? Do Baylor and Natalie get their big chance to boot the last remaining obstacle to the finals? *crosses fingers*
Something else about Jon. Considering the up front editing the promos have been for past "blindsides" (John/Jeremy) it's completely possible that it happens yet again. The story isn't how does someone work their way to the finals but moreso who ends up screwing up the plans of those who work to get to the finals.
Natalie: Natalie also has an idol and with a tight relationship between her and Baylor, I believe any plans to boot Natalie would be followed by a strange change in Baylor's personality towards her and that would clue Natalie into playing the idol. It is possible though, that Missy takes the info about wanting to boot Jon to Jon himself, setting up a scenario where they could pretend to stay tight with her but end up voting for her. Leaving Baylor out of the loop with that move. However, I know Jaclyn is aware that "they" might blindside Jon but Jon seems blissfully unaware of Natalie's intentions. I also think that the moves made by Natalie (at and after the RC's) will end up cluing Missy into the fact that Natalie is gaining lots of favor within the jury. This will create a huge target for Natalie. It would sadden me greatly to see Natalie move into the Ponderosa but as one of the last few "deserving" castaways I fear for her longevity.

tribe's Bullet list

*Reward Challenge: Baylor, Jaclyn and Natalie. Natalie gives away her reward AND volunteers for Exile.

*Exile: Natalie (Unless Natalie doesn't volunteer, in that case it's gotta be Keith.)

*Immunity Challenge: Baylor wins

*Tribal Council: A blindside. And most likely somone who is seen as a threat, but feels confident in their alliance.

*Bootee: Natalie

* Can't wait to get the next SOTS done. This has been a difficult season to predict and every subsequent week I have to muster even more reserved enthusiasm for continuing on.
* I do thank you all for your support and kudos, even when I'm almost always wrong in the prediction department.
* However, if I'm right this week, I can almost guarantee that I got the finale episode down as well. I hope I'm right but feel confident I'm wrong.
* Oh, and regarding Missyae. Sadly he's become a victim of the spoiling spoilers machine. He was fed good info for a few seasons but ever since has been spreading an increasing amount of falshoods directed to him because everyone knows he can't keep it to himself.