LAST EDITED ON 05-15-14 AT 08:58 AM (EST)

In celebration of The List's most recent - and only - correct Boot Prediction
(Sarah's departure predated its compilation)
Generous renditions of The Chaotic Cocktail are being served at the bar.

References to Sourced Spoilers are just beyond!
So, if you prefer not to know what very little rumor is being bandied about
By the very few who purport to know - something
Kick back and have another Chaotic. Or several. They're on the Thread.

Then, if your cursor should take a walk on the wild side
Your memory will never have to come to terms with where that rascal was
or
what it saw there!

Note: The adorable Mini-ManEater cavorting in your Cocktail is a perfectly harmless Jello sculpture
propelled by a pinch of Arm and Hammer Baking Soda
Truly, it is.

But I wouldn't cross that Great Red Waiter!

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THE LIST

Even though I was really sorry to see Tasha leave the Game - until I watched her disillusioning interview with "Queen Parv" - that was fun! And I hope that both Tribe and Outsider saw my post in the ECST acknowledging their roles in my boot choice.

For my part, I am more than happy to take the word of the Board's resident Editing experts when they say that Cagayan has been a very unpredictable Season. Because, beginning with its unprecedented 78% - 22% split, from my seat it is a landmark one. And to put that into some perspective, let's take a look at this evening's boot prospects:

Tony – Sagittarius – Fire – Mutable - Soloist ~

I am, as you are by now painfully aware, a Sagittarius.. And, despite the fact that he personally ushered LJ to the Tribal Council door, I am so damned proud of Tony.

Surrounded by a veritable sea of Water, he has actively, aggressively, in-full-voice and in-broad-daylight played the Game. Along the way, disproving my theory that the only way a Sagittarius could advance as far as he has done in the Game was - stealthily. So, take note of the Sagittarius line in the Earth and Water Majority Signs Chart just below these player reviews. You’ll see that only seventeen Sagittarius have begun one of those thirteen completed Games. And that, of those seventeen, only two have reached Final Four: Matty (in Gabon) and ‘Sash’ (in Nicaragua). And only ‘Sash’ advanced to Final Three.

Ironically (perhaps, presciently): The Sole Survivor of Gabon was, like Woo, a seemingly compliant and complacent Pisces – Bob – and the Sole Survivor of Nicaragua was, like Woo, a youthful and seemingly disengaged sojourner – Jud (Fabio).

So, what should we expect from Tony tonight?

Well, having said all of that about Tony’s forfeiture of stealth, I think that at this Tribal Council he would have wanted to dispatch one of his allies while retaining his/her loyalty. Because, it has seemed that Tony was very much aware that he needed five Final Tribal Council votes to win the Game …

So, in no personal danger, I think that he will do his best to use his two HII(s) to shield the fact that he was responsible for the Boot. But beyond a nebulous thought that he will orchestrate an outcome that will send Trish (the more ambitious, versatile and sympathetic of the two) packing as the result of one vote, I have no idea how he will accomplish the feat. Or why Spencer was chagrined by the fact that the conditions of the Special Powers Idol were not known to all (if it is a Trish Boot).

And that last is a huge question.

Spencer – Cancer – Water – Cardinal – Superior ~

Ah! The ‘born leader’ who didn’t (See Morgan and Jeremiah). But he has persevered. However, the consensus seems to be that if he failed to win II during this cycle, we will see him in Ponderosa by midnight (on the East Coast). And it may well be the case that this Tribal Council resulted in his straight-forward – by the HII(s) – Boot.

But, although it would seem that Tony would have his Final Tribal Council vote (and knew it), I think that Tony was also certainly savvy enough to know that Spencer - better the enemy that you know with the very real advantage in a head-to-head popularity contest - had by this point a vested interest in keeping the Sagittarius in the Game. So, I’m not so certain that Spencer – sans Individual Immunity – would have been Tony’s target this evening. Or that Tony – sans Hidden Immunity Idols – would have been Spencer’s.

As for the Cancer’s chagrin, the only reason for it that suggests itself is that Spencer preferred Woo’s exit rather than Trish’s (a fact driven home, perhaps, by Spencer’s subsequent exit at Final Three – at Woo’s hands , and legs, and dexterity).

Trish – Cancer – Water – Cardinal – Superior ~

Ah! The other ‘born leader’ who didn’t (See Season 28: Episodes One thru Eleven). Who has also persevered . And who, in addition, has been a crucial asset to her partner. But, at Final Five, she was much more valuable to him as a Juror than as an active ally. She could not (like Woo) be counted upon to be a competitive Challenge participant.

And, presumably, as far as Tony knew at this juncture, he had only to survive one more Tribal Council vote in order to present his case to the Jury. And he and Woo (the far less ambitious, creative and sympathetic member of his shrinking Alliance) were a safer (for Tony) – tying twosome.

In short (and in keeping with this Season’s central ‘Play or Go’ theme) Trish should have seen this coming. But I don’t think that she did.

Kass - Scorpio - Water - Fixed - Superior ~

Purportedly, everyone’s Goat. But, following Scorpio’s (Lavender) line on the Chart that I’ve already mentioned, I believe, occasions a certain respect for those of the twenty-four Scorpio who have begun an Earth and Water Majority Season and reached its Final Ten. And, once there, the Sign’s natives do well at the task of reaching the Final Four. In fact, of the Signs still active in Cagayan, only Pisces (Woo) have a better record. Final Three is, however, a different story. Ethan (in Africa) and Susie (in Gabon) are the only two Scorpio to ever sit before one of those thirteen Survivor Juries.

And because I am confident that we’ll have another week to talk about Kass () and am again running out of pre-show time, I’ll leave it at that for the moment.

Woo – Pisces - Water – Mutable – Subordinate

We’ve already spoken about Bob. So, we know that should Woo win this Game, he would not be the first Pisces to trade loyalty (and chronic detachment) for Survivor’s $1,000,000. Note: Brian (in Thailand) is the Series’ other Pisces Sole Survivor.

And, because of that ticking clock (Yes, mine actually ticks!), we’ll leave Woo there, too. For the moment.

I am becoming more convinced each day that Jim Early does have it right and that we should see Woo … in the Finale.

For now, here is that Chart. And below it is, along with the still-germane Sourced and Informed Spoiling upon which I’ve relied, The (Updated ) List.

The Spoils

From Editing: The prevailing opinion seems to be that either Spencer or Tony is Cagayan's Sole Survivor.

From Signs of Survival/Casting: The histories of eighteen of twenty-one Seasons played with Majority/Minority populations indicate that an Earth or Water native will be this Season's Sole Survivor.

And, referring to the eight Earth and Water Majority Seasons with original casting formula/splits most like that of Cagayan (illustrated in the Chart below added 05/15/14):

1) In six (6) of the eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F10.

2) In six (6) of the eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F9.

3) In five (5) of the eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F8.

4) In six (6) of the eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F7.

5) In five (5) of the eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F6.

6) In six (6) of the eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Fire and Air Minority left the Game at F5.

1) – 6) In all of the eight (8) Seasons, no more than one (1) Minority native remained in the Game at F4.

7) In six (6) of the eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F4.

1) - 7) In seven (7) of the same eight (8) Seasons, a Minority native was still in the Game at F5 and in six (6) of the same eight (8) Seasons a Minority native was still in the Game at F4.

From The Sourced Spoilers Thread:

A Spoiler attributed to Jim Early declares that there is an F2 composed of a man and a woman. And that the man wins the Game. And that the man is not Spencer (Cancer/Water). So, assuming that the Spoiler is not a hoax, Woo (Pisces/Water, who JP has suggested is 'getting the Fabio Edit') is going to win in Cagayan.

Note: To the best of my knowledge, Jim Early has not disavowed his Spoiler and it was (seemingly) reinforced yesterday by a series of tweets (with the concluding message attributed to Mr. Early)

Too, there is an active Spoiler that indicates that Trish and Tasha go late into the Game ... together. And, apparently, this information is based upon 'off-campus' observations of the two. I've suggested that the Source (a Guide) may have seen the two women going to (or from) Ponderosa and surmised that they were the last two women to leave the Game.

Finally:

From Look Closer at SS, there are two puzzles/riddles that suggest that Kass is a member of the Final Two and that Spencer is not.

So:

The List

F10 - Spencer Morgan
F09 - Morgan Spencer LJ
F08 - Spencer Jeremiah

F07 - Spencer Jefra
F06 - Tasha
F05 - Trish
F04 - Tony
F03 - Spencer (or Woo)
F02 - Kass
Sole Survivor - Woo (or Spencer)