LAST EDITED ON 04-24-14 AT 06:57 AM (EST)

Good Evening!

I've already posted most of the following updates. Here and there. So, I've put them all together to give us a comprehensive look at the current (to us) tribal dynamics.

Directly below is Solarrion's Tribal composition. And below it is an update of the Natural Tribal Chart.

Below them are the Charts that reflect the Signs' performances in 1) S1 through S27 and in 2) the Earth and Water Majority Seasons.

To Notice:

The two Charts directly above illustrate the Signs' performances in completed Games.

The far-left column contains the names of the Signs and the total number of their members cast in those Seasons - from the highest to the lowest (raw) number. It also contains the names of the Signs' Cagayan contestants. The names of Cagayan castmembers who have left the Game are in red.

The next column contains the names of the Signs ranked (from high to low) by the percentage of their members who began the Game in those Seasons and reached F10.

The next column contains the names of the Signs ranked (from high to low) by the percentage of their members who began the Game in those Seasons and reached F4.

The next column contains the names of the Signs ranked (from high to low) by the percentage of their members who began the Game in those Seasons and reached F3.

The next column contains the names of the Signs ranked (from high to low) by the percentage of their members who began the Game in those Seasons and became one of its Sole Survivors.

And just below is the Chart that illustrates the boot histories of the completed Earth and Water - dominant Seasons.
Along with its attachments ...

To Notice:

1) In six (6) of the same eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F10.

2) In six (6) of the same eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F9.

3) In five (5) of the same eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F8.

4) In six (6) of the same eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F7.

5) In five (5) of the same eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F6.

6) In six (6) of the same eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Fire and Air Minority left the Game at F5.

1) – 6) In all of the eight (8) Seasons, no more than one (1) Minority native remained in the Game at F4.

7) In six (6) of the same eight (8) Seasons, a member of the Earth and Water Majority left the Game at F4.

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Warning! References to Sourced Information Follow!
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
So ... incorporating every last Source for one last time ...

Eighteen of twenty-one Seasons played with Majority/Minority populations indicate that an Earth or Water native will be this Season's Sole Survivor. And a Sourced Spoiler attributed to Jim Early declares that there is an F2 composed of a man and a woman. And that the man wins the Game. And that the man is not Spencer. So, assuming that the Spoiler is not a hoax, Woo (who JP has suggested is 'getting' the Fabio Edit') is going to win in Cagayan.

Too, there are Sourced Spoilers that indicate that Trish and Tasha go late into the Game (for argument's sake, I'm going to assume that 'late' in this instance means F5 or further) and that Tasha is probably eventually booted at F3.

Additionally, the late-boot (F10 to F3) histories of all eight of the E&W Majority Seasons with Majority/Minority splits most comparable to Cagayan's indicate that there will be no more than one F&A native remaining at F4.

Finally, there is the 'Torch Theory' that indicates that the F5 will be composed of two Brawn, two Beauty and one Brain.

So, given all of the above, the boot order would have to look like the following (with Spencer, Kass and Tony leaving the Game at F8, F7 and F6). And, for multiple reasons, I don't think that that happens. But, we'll see. And then, I think, begin - as it seems that most of us have already done - entertaining fresh scenarios tomorrow ...

The List ~

F10 - Spencer Morgan
F09 - Morgan Spencer LJ

Remaining at F8: Tony, Woo and Trish (Brawn), Jeremiah and Jefra (Beauty) and Tasha, Kass, Spencer (Brain)

F08 - Spencer
F07 - Kass
F06 - Tony

Remaining at F5: Trish and Woo (Brawn), Jeremiah and Jefra (Beauty) and Tasha (Brain)

F05 - Jeremiah
F04 - Jefra
F03 - Tasha
F02 - Woo and Trish

Note: The only practical alternative to a scenario in which Woo is the Season's Sole Survivor - if we continue to assume that a man does, in fact, become Cagayan's winner - is that Spencer is that winner. However, the fact that Kass (failing a 4th casting anomoly) will not win the Game was decided long before she and Spencer broke bread in the Philippines.

The Chart Backgrounds are by Ysa Gernale and
and
Vicente Manansala
National Artist of The Philippines
Deceased