LAST EDITED ON 04-30-14 AT 10:36 PM (EST)

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Warning! References to Sourced Information Follow!
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

The List

Eighteen of twenty-one Seasons played with Majority/Minority populations indicate that an Earth or Water native will be this Season's Sole Survivor. And a Sourced Spoiler attributed to Jim Early declares that there is an F2 composed of a man and a woman. And that the man wins the Game. And that the man is not Spencer (Cancer/Water). So, assuming that the Spoiler is not a hoax, Woo (Pisces/Water, who JP has suggested is 'getting the Fabio Edit') is going to win in Cagayan.

Too, there are Sourced Spoilers that indicate that Trish and Tasha go late into the Game (for argument's sake, I'm going to assume that 'late' in this instance means F5 or further) and that Tasha is probably eventually booted at F3.

Additionally, the late-boot (F10 to F3) histories of all eight of the E&W Majority Seasons with Majority/Minority splits most comparable to Cagayan's indicate that there will be no more than one F&A native remaining at F4. And we are now, with Kass' conversion to Scorpio, down to that one F&A native: Tony.

They also indicate that in seven (7) of the same eight (8) Seasons, a Minority native was still in the Game at F5 and in six (6) of the same eight (8) Seasons s Minority native was still in the Game at F4. So, taken altogether, the 'sources' suggest this boot order (or something like it ... )

F10 - Spencer Morgan
F09 - Morgan Spencer LJ
F08 - Spencer Jeremiah

F07 - Spencer
F06 - Jefra
F05 - Tony
F04 - Trish
F03 - Tasha
F02 - Woo and Kass
Sole Survivor - Woo

ETA: I put Kass in the F2 with Woo as a nod to the rumors that she is evidently not on the best of terms with many of her former tribemates. And I can't think that anything less than a late-game betrayal would cause such a widespread reaction.

Too, just to be clear:

Spencer is a Cancer - a member of the Season's Majority. So, it would not be at all surprising if he were to be Cagayan's winner. I just don't care for him and the 'spoiler' that another man wins the Game is - convenient.

If Tony should win, it most certainly would be a departure (only the fourth in 22 Seasons) from a very stable pattern . And I don't think that that is going to happen. Idols or no, the odds are convincing: Tony is going to find a way to lose the Game.

Or, like Kass, get another birthday ...

The Chart Backgrounds by Ysa Gernale