LAST EDITED ON 09-28-11 AT 06:40 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 09-28-11 AT 06:28 PM (EST)
As you guys might know by now, my feeling about Survivor early season themes is that they don't always work out in terms of defining the end of the season. Even though there is a ton of footage for the editors to pull from, the outcome of the show is not as completely manageable as a novel or a 100% scripted show.
I also believe in a shifting theme. That is, what may be a theme early in the 39 days may shift to something else, and yet another theme. I actually prefer this. Part of my excitement with Survivor was not knowing how people would change as they go through the ordeal and the game. I don't really like the idea that characters are defined at the beginning and that will be the dominant note of their character. I would agree that we see this more and more, but I don't love that kind of editing.
My take on Mikayla is that she will be gone early if Upolu loses enough challenges. Stacey should be gone first if not for Brandon, but it's possible that Mikayla will. I think that what we are being shown is that Upolu has the eye on the prize of getting that dominant alliance to the merge. As does Savai'i. The outside three on each tribe are going to have a very tough row to get to merge.
The tough facts are, the alliance doesn't consist of the nicest people, or the underdogs, on either tribe. It consists of a mix of strong challenge performance and a certain early "click" that forms "cliquies."
If Brandon were weak in challenges, his demons might get him sent home, but he's not.
If Mikayla had made friends with Coach's group right away, her athleticism would have given her staying power, but she did not.
The edit showed her being reproved by Jeff for possibly going out without a whimper much less a fight.
Mikayla stands in contrast to Cochran, who was shown asserting himself and saying, look, I see how it's going -- I didn't start off right, and now I'm in danger, but there has to be a way to fix this.
So I would say that Mikayla will be a casualty of the early alliance formation, but Cochran is somehow going to make it. Stacey the Mom is not going to successfully integrate into the group, but Dawn the mom will somehow succeed.
Brandon will be the character that America loves to hate on and every week they tune in to see his alliance get it together and send him packing -- like Jerri in Season 2. This type of character is excellent for ratings. America is more likely to watch hoping to see the villain crash and burn than to watch the good people carry on.
On Upolu, the chemistry of sexual attraction is all haywire. Brandon finds Mikayla too attractive and she is a Delilah.
On Savai'i, in contrast, we have guys who like the hot girls. I think that Ozzy has now gravitated towards Elyse, and that Keith likes Whitney. Ozzy and Keith are tight. That leaves Jim on the edge of the "cool kids" as he acknowledged, without a strong one on one bond. Jim likes the hot women, but they don't look at him. Jim will most likely be the one who goes so that an underdog can make merge, IF that happens.
We are shown Jim being overly confident, and also we see Keith explaining that Jim doesn't really know jack about what's going on. Keith did not clarify how he feels about the two girls. We are being left in doubt whether the two girls are dispensable to the bro's the way Jim conceptualizes the alliance. At the moment, Elyse and Whitney are a question mark, as we don't see the game from their POV very much.
Savai'i has some potential for turning into a two "couple" tribal alliance core such as what we had last season with Rob + Natalie and Grant + Ashley. Grant and Ashley were never a real couple, as Grant was married and Ashley had a boyfriend at home. Both of Ozzy's prior seasons he fell into this pattern. Yul + Becky and Ozzy + Sundra -- even though there was no romantic relationship, was somewhat of a paired model due to Yul and Becky being so tight.
Then in Micronesia, we had Ozzy + Amanda and James + Parvati set to dominate the game, but Parvati knew that she couldn't go to the end that way. Whitney and Elyse, still unknown, look for now to be followers like Natalie, Ashley, Becky, Sundra.
Upolu, in contrast, is shaping up to be a bro's alliance. Coach, Rick, Albert, Brandon are at the core, with Sophie as the intellectual boyish girl. Mikayla's efforts to play tomboy didn't work, because her body isn't tomboy. Edna is seen by Coach as maybe someone who will do what he says, so she is an asset.
The contrast between tribes sets Upolu up as the tribe that is focused on business despite the personality flaws of one alliance member. Savai'i is the pleasure tribe. We continue to see them congregating in the beautiful shallow water. We see Upolu having its convo's in the woods.
This season, I don't get the sense that either tribe is doomed pre-merge. It feels more like both tribes have members that could be a force post-merge. I don't have the sense there will be a swap this season that neutralizes these early alliances, but of course I don't know that. I'm not so sure that a swap would mix well with the RI twist.
Back to Mikayla and Brandon, a rift like that poisons the tribe, so it needs to be dealt with, but I think that Mikayla will go. She may be sort of like Kelly B -- a valuable tribe member in many ways yet targeted by the despicable Na Onka and offed pre-merge.