I've just done some reading here and loved these comments. I'm short on time and can't give them the response they deserve just now. Maybe next week!I wrote a post in the MESS story arcs last week on Sava'i (mostly), so if you don't mind I'll just slap it in here as my first impressions written before what I got from you. Despite what I wrote, FP's post has made me see that Ozzy did do a course correct on Day 2 when it came to getting the camp together.
SAVAI'I
The Savai'i that I felt had legs (post-merge) were Ozzy, Dawn, Cochran, Papa Bear. I would add Whitney because she got so much attention pre-show, and she had a nice bit saying that she didn't get a chance to do the basketball because of Semhar, which let us know that she is ready to step up.
Ozzy -- I don't have anything much to say that you haven't covered. Except, having his tribe get in the water may not be a horrible move. First day shelter building can be a bonding experience, or it can be where things go horribly wrong with personality conflict. He took the approach of getting them to take a breath and look at the beauty of their surroundings, and that isn't necessarily bad. He did that in the Cook Islands as well.
However, I do think he forced tribe members who were not so comfortable "in the wild" to sleep on the ground when it may have been a comfort to someone like Dawn to have some structure. This shows how Ozzy is not really in tune with the others, even though he is willing to be there as a listener after the person has become distressed.
We were shown with Ozzy that he is still looking at the strong tribe model, and anyone who cannot get with the "nature" experience is at risk with him. It is not only about challenges.
Ozzy is already all about the girls, even though he gave a confessional saying he was NOT looking for another showmance. Neither was Boston Rob (being married), but he still stuck with his MO of the girl ally, and Ozzy may too. In Cook Islands, Sundra was his close friend, even though he flirted with Parvati near the end. Yul had Becky and Ozzy had Jamaican actress Sundra ... which may have attracted him towards Semhar as there is some resemblance between the two.
OTOH, Ozzy's attempt to get a beautiful but weak girl ally has already failed, so perhaps the story is that he'll try something new. Otherwise, let's see if he turns to Whitney or Elyse next time.
Dawn -- What did strike me that I'd like to add is that Dawn could be getting the Holly edit. I read that Dawn was to be cast for 21 in the spot Holly ended up in, so they were already similar in the eyes of casting. As we know, Holly was shown breaking down and recklessly failing to keep her cool, but after surviving long enough to get over her separation angst, she turned into a very fine strategist in terms of finding unlikely allies and firmly establishing herself as the Mom of the season.
Dawn's issue is also separation anxiety as well as having her body chemistry go bananas on her. She is used to living within a certain network of loved ones and it is not her strength to be alone, similar to Holly. Another thing we were shown with Dawn was that Papa Bear was committed to protecting her, even though that could cost him.
As Holly made it to F4, I think Dawn can go far with this beginning.
Cochran -- Definitely see him as a major character. A second or third boot who is out quickly doesn't get that much face time. Also Jeff fawned all over him in assessments. I think he is being presented as the next Cesternino. Rob C was not embraced by his original tribe either. He doesn't seem like a Todd, because Todd had the pulse of his tribe from the get-go. Another great student of the game who was not so physical was Rafe.
I think one has to compare him to Stephen Fishbach, who was immediately shown as out of his comfort zone in nature, but who embraced the chance to learn. (Note: as Stephen is one of my favorites of all time, must say that Stephen always appeared smarter and funnier and less insecure IMHO). While the two share ivy league brains, Stephen was not a superfan. He was recruited.
So in that sense Cochran is more of a RobC or Rafe. My question is whether Cochran will find that ally that Rafe and Stephen found, or whether he will squeak through like RobC. So far, he does not have a best friend. He is trying to play with the whole group. His closest associates, Dawn and Papa Bear, were shown as quite bonded already to each other.
Ozzy clearly saw Cochran as a city boy who might need to be cut. This stands in contrast to JT and Stephen, where JT like Ozzy was extremely comfortable in the environment, but took to the city boy. So far it does not look promising for an odd couple pairing of Cochran and Ozzy.
Papa Bear -- Sympathetic character, well aware of his underdog position, spent a good amount of time in his head, and I definitely saw him as a protagonist. Had a lot of face time and his bonds were focused on.
Jim -- I felt the Jim/Ozzy conflict was being set up very quickly, so it may come to a head quickly, pre-merge. Because pre-merge is the wrong time to make a move on Ozzy, this could lead to an early demise for Jim. Probst called Jim slimy I think, so it is likely that even though he is one of the stronger members, that he won't be trusted.
Elyse -- I did not get a feeling she has much going for her, but we were introduced to her.
Keith -- the obvious physical strength of the tribe who they need to hang onto, yet I didn't feel like we got in his head at all. We saw him from outside his head, giving Cochran a reality check at TC, showing he could be blunt. His edit so far reminds me of Grant. He's got a ticket to the merge, especially with the RI twist, yet his personality wasn't important to the plot of Ep 1.
UPOLU Short and preliminary thoughts ...
The players with legs for me were Coach, Brandon, Sophie, and Mikhayla. They deserve a better analysis than I can do right now, so here is something on the others.
Albert -- like Keith, is the clear brute force, but like Grant, not a personality at the get-go. Almost certainly has ticket to merge.
Edna -- was featured only in so far as she befriended Coach, but I got the impression there is more to come. Maybe legs here too.
Rick -- I am not so sure about Rick, as the Sears player seems to get an automatic feature, but JimmyT didn't last very long despite all the exposure he got as a character. I need to see Rick DO something to show he is adapting.
Christine is the Kristina this season, but she is way less likable in her edit. We saw Kristina in a good light at the beginning, I think, but we weren't inside Christine's head or given any insight to her feelings about returning players other than she doesn't like it. Actually she is in Francesca's role when it comes to opening her mouth in opposition from the get-go, but Francesca was likable.
Stacey -- she has physical strength, but she's different from everyone. The missed idol clue could be foreshadowing, or it could just be she provided the editors with a humorous moment. She could even go back to that spot and this time find the clue, as she was there once.
Quick note on Coach -- I liked that Coach wasn't playing the buffoon. It was a merciful relief. I like that he didn't gather his alliance together with philosophical crap. He told them this is the way to get far in this game, and that's a very good way to sell it.