LAST EDITED ON 10-11-11 AT 03:21 PM (EST)

Before examining Episode 4 I would like to revisit my summary of the key themes to this season. Negative first impressions/a rocky start can be overcome through:

a) Stepping up when it counts and putting the effort in
b) Building relationships with loyal people and sticking to them (a good social game)

This episode continues to explore these themes. In particular, trust and unity is examined, with particular reference to the 5-strong alliances on both Upolu and Savaii.

An interesting recap reminds us of the ”loose cannon behavior” of Brandon which worries Coach: ”Either you’re loyal or disloyal”. We see further indications in the episode of the destructive potential of Brandon to Upolu’s alliance through his conversation with Edna.

Edna: ”Brandon pulled me aside and said that I was actually not part of the alliance of six. He said that the other five people in the alliance have basically just tolerated me and that given the opportunity I’d be the next to go.”

Brandon, despite his protestations of turning over a new leaf articulates a different theme to the one of loyalty:”Everyone’s out for themselves – it’s a really selfish game so you got to do what you got to do to win”.

If our key themes are to be believed, this is not a winning strategy

Sophie correctly identifies the importance of trust and loyalty and the threat posed by Brandon: ”I thought I had a 5-strong and Edna alliance going. And it seems like we’re going to have to do some reshuffling. Only because our alliance is based on trust and right now it looks more and more like Brandon is just a small small Russell Hantz”.

Coach is also concerned: ”I want to be with Brandon every step of the way, but I’m worried that he’s going to kick over the kettle at the most inopportune time and ruin the game for everybody”

The scene is set for Brandon’s disloyalty to destroy the Upolu alliance. Will they get rid of him before it is too late?

The themes of loyalty are commented on disdainfully by Stacey (”I’m not buying Coach’s BS at all. That loyalty game-playing stuff – I don’t buy that whatsoever”)

Jeff summarizes the challenge that lies ahead for Upolu: ”Trust and unity are two of the qualities you’re attempting to base this tribe on. They are also two of the most difficult aspects of this game to maintain”

In my view, the Upolu alliance’s success in this game will depend on whether they confront the disloyalty within and cut Brandon loose. If Brandon stays, it seems likely that he will turn on them. Coach and Sophie are not unaware of the danger. There are unfortunately already signs that they will either ignore this threat or be unable to take decisive action until it is too late.

On Savaii, the themes of loyalty and unity are explored more subtly. We see Ozzie’s arrogance (”I am the anchor”) emphasized with his placing of the ”oldest and the nerdiest on the chopping block”. His lounging about the shelter, frolicking in the sea and mocking of Jim highlight a selfish, individual game that is correctly assessed by Dawn. ”I think he’s strategizing – he’s just done it somewhere else or in a different time and place and so he doesn’t want us strategizing – and that just irks me to no end”

Much like Brandon (except more subtly) Ozzie is presented as a threat to tribal loyaly and unity. As Jim articulates: ”You can’t give him that physical presence and that voting presence, because then he will run it like Rob did last year”

A significant confessional by Cochran sheds lights on the direction that the game may take for Savaii. ”This is finally going to be the time when the Savaii tribe makes a move that’s going to change the course of the game and it’s going to surprise a lot of people”

I believe that, unlike Upolu, Savaii will be more successful at eliminating the identified threat to unity. Ozzie is on borrowed time and his elimination in my view may be the turning point that propels a Savaii member to victory.

The theme of stepping up after a rocky start is also developed further in certain characters, particularly Dawn: ”I feel like I have to show the Savaii tribe what I can do. It’s absolutely critical for me to perform – I can’t be the weakest.”

After a grueling immunity challenge, with apt encouragement by Jeff that mirrors Ozzie’s initial encouragement of Dawn in the first episode (”You have to find it inside yourself. You got more inside that tank”),Dawn wins for Savaii.

Dawn: ”I’ve been through a tough day one, day two – come back feeling really strong and like I had a lot to contribute. And then to be the last person standing in that challenge today…”

Will she be the last person standing at the end of the game?

At Tribal Council this theme is summarized succinctly by Brandon: ”It’s not how you start….it’s how you finish”

With the key themes in mind, let’s examine our cast:

Out of contention

Christine and Stacey are both on Redemption Island. Neither of their edits suggest a successful return and long-term stint in the game.

Whitney, Keith, Albert and Rick do not have a starring role in this production

Elyse is relegated to ”Ozzie’s backpocket”. Her game will not end well.

Ozzie’s selfish individualism is presented as the biggest threat to Savaii unity. His elimination seems imminent and I predict a pre-merge boot.

Brandon is shown to be Coach’s (and Upolu’s) nemesis. He directly opposes the themes of trust and loyalty. While his chances of winning are zero, his longevity in the game will in all likelihood be inversely related to Coach’s (and Upolu’s) ultimate success.

Sophie and Jim are both interesting characters. In particular, the ”used car salesman” with ”suspiciously white teeth” may be pivotal in ousting Ozzie, with a story that seems to have legs. However, for both of them, their lack of relationship to the season’s themes in my view eliminates them from contention.

Unlikely

Edna had a very bad episode. In a game where I believe a good social game is key to winning she is shown as being socially unaware. Is there time for her to redeem herself, to step up and learn how to play the social game. Possibly, but it will probably not be enough to win the game.

Mikayla A promising start has fizzled out. An outsider who is shown to step up, and is thus strongly connected to the season’s themes, her one-note victim edit, interspersed with sniping criticisms of Edna, does not appear to be a winning one. She needs a story, unrelated to Brandon, fast!

Slipping

Coach had a magical start to the season. Shown to overcome a rocky start, and to be a positive leader, with winning quotes aplenty, this season appeared to be a rerun of Redemption Island, with another returning player taking the spoils. Recently however, his edit has taken a subtle turn for the worse, with his sincerity questioned by Stacey (and the viewers) and his unwillingness to confront the biggest threat to unity within his tribe possibly foreshadowing his undoing. Can he turn this around, bring Brandon under control (either by voting him out or leading him to redemption)? It is possible. But his fate in this game seems strongly tied to his relationship with Brandon. Is Brandon his nemesis or will he work out a way to neutralize the younger Hantz? I will watch future episodes with interest.

The Contenders

Cochran Strongly tied to the theme of overcoming a rocky start, Cochran’s game savvy and strategic awareness has been highlighted thusfar. With good social skills and a willingness to step up and make the big moves, Cochran is a very strong contender.

But there’s just something about Dawn. Similarly to Cochran, she was strongly tied to the theme of overcoming a rocky start. I was waiting for her to step up and put the effort in, and she did (and how) this episode. I keep being reminded of Ozzie’s comments during her breakdown in the first episode(”You have something inside you that is unsure….and you need to confront it…”

If I may venture a bold prediction (inspired by Michel) I will put my money on another Savaii tribe member to win it all. In my view (and I’ve held this view since the first episode) Dawn will be the ”last one standing” and will be the Sole Survivor.

Looking forward to seeing whether future events support my interpretation!