LAST EDITED ON 09-23-11 AT 03:58 PM (EST)

I have been lurking for some time (since Gabon) and have always found this thread very enlightening. However this is my first time posting. I hope that you find parts of it interesting. There may be overlap with other posters – I have however tried to compile this from scratch and come up with my own objective (if there is such a thing) view of the episode. Hopefully I can continue to contribute as the season continues.

I’d like to begin my analysis by referencing some key moments in the episode. One thing that I have learnt from this thread is the importance of identifying key themes of the season. Often these themes can be identified early on, even in the first episode. With that in mind here goes:

1)In the introduction by Coach and Ozzie there is a reference to previous failures. Coach refers to “one more shot” to win the game. Ozzie says that he has “learnt from his mistakes”.

Right up front, could this be the theme to this season? Despite previous failures/shortcomings, learning from mistakes and getting another chance to overcome them to win the game?

2)Semhar: “I got put on the spot. Immediately I had to step up. It’s important when people challenge you that you step up to that, that they can trust you and know that your word is real.”

Ironic that she was voted out after stepping up but failing to deliver. She appeared to have passion as referenced by Ozzie, but gave up when it counted. Overconfidence not a good thing in this game? Could the theme be that looks and initial perceptions can be deceiving. Could our winner be somebody who initially appears to be weak and a failure but steps up when it counts?

Immediately afterwards, during the swimming scene

3)Cochran: “What I have to do is focus on the positive, visualize success and get those negative thoughts out of my head.”

4)Mikayla: “When the time comes you gotta get down and dirty. This is a game – you can’t be a little princess.”

Interesting commentary on the 2 approaches of the tribes led by Coach and Ozzie (“Bob Marley”). Action will be rewarded. Stepping up is key, despite your self-doubt!

5)Coach (after the chat with the 5-member Upolo alliance by the canoe): “Good to see the difference a day makes”

Rocky starts can be overcome!

6) Ozzie to Dawn: “As long as you don’t quit, as long as you stay strong and keep fighting, you’ll be in this game. You have what it takes to keep going. But you have something inside of you that’s unsure and you need to confront it and tell it to get the hell out.”

I think that this could very well summarize the story of the season, and (if I may be so bold as to predict) our winner’s story!

7)In Tribal Council, Semhar to Cochran: “You are so mesmerized by the game, you forget how important it is to be that person, just working and doing things”

Once again the importance of action emphasized.

8)Jeff at the end states that the tribe has taken the view that people can improve

Will our winner improve and step up after a rocky start?

I’m going to go out on a limb and say “yes”. With that in mind, who are our key candidates for a possible win?

Possible winners

1)Coach

Coach’s story starts off badly. He is referred to as a “temporary player” by Christine and disparagingly by Rick, who did not want to see him. He is referred to by Mikayla as “loony and out there”, and negatively compared against Ozzie.

His initial confessionals state that he is “not feeling a good vibe” and that “it’s going to be rocky”. After he lost the initial challenge, the tribe walked off and only Edna helped him. He references his “biggest fear “. He’s “going home first”. He’s “afraid”, on the tribe that gave him “the cold shoulder” and “face to face with fear". Not an auspicious start.

And yet, Coach steps up when it counts, leading his tribe to build a shelter, in comparison with Ozzie, who was received more warmly by his tribe, but did not lead them. Sophie refers to Coach as having “been out here twice before and knows some things” Edna refers to Coach as a “team player”, “working well with the others” and “an asset”.

Coach also has a great potential winning quote: “Coach is here to play the game this time. I’m not going to do anything sneaky or dishonourable but this is Coach 3.0 and I’m here to win.”

2)Dawn

Dawn also has a rocky start. She is upset that the shelter is not completed on the first day (and the editing leads us to agree with her). On Day 2 she is suffering from lack of sleep and has a “mini-breakdown”. She “feels old for the first time in forever” and “woke up today without being able to contain emotions”.

Confiding in Ozzie she still displays enough game awareness to comment “The person who has the breakdown goes…” It is telling that the confessionals from other players are sympathetic. Mark states that crying is “viewed as weakness”. But he “won’t turn his back on her” because “everybody has emotions”. Clearly the audience is intended to sympathize with Dawn and not give up on her either.

Ozzie’s encouragement in terms of not quitting, as referenced above, is key.

In a confessional a little further in the episode Dawn states that having started the game in a way that was pretty emotional there is a real possibility that she may be viewed as a liability for the tribe. She is hoping the tribe will be basing their decisions on “today looking forward”. Her gut tells her that Semhar is going home. (Interesting that she is correct. Despite her weakness, her head is in the game and she can be counted on to give an accurate assessment).

In line with the theme of stepping up when it counts, Ozzie refers to Dawn as having done really well in the challenge (despite her breakdown). Interesting little comment – it didn’t need to be included there. Part of building a positive edit for Dawn as someone who steps up despite failure/weakness/a rocky start. Could this be our winner?

An interesting little “Thank you” by Cochran after Tribal Council gives the credit for saving him to Dawn. Interesting. Why?

3)Cochran

Despite being the “most savvy Survivor player ever to play the game” Cochran has a rocky start. He appears to be so “mesmerized by the game that he forgets how important it is just to be that person working and doing things” as referenced by Semhar at Tribal Council, and as “hesitating, needing direction” by Mark.

Ozzie references his lack of physicality and not stepping up. A key lesson that Cochran needs to learn if he is to win.

His swimming quote (as referenced above) about focusing on the positive is important, given his “crippling anxiety and insecurity”.

However, at Tribal Council, Cochran recasts himself as an “eager student”. He will “learn things once and then do it. This is the culmination of 11 years of passion for the game”. He says that he “will do anything he needs to do around camp” and that his “eyes are opened to the perception that people have” of him and he will “take that into account”

A key theme for the winner could very well be overcoming initial bad first impressions. If Cochran can do that and harness his passion, stepping up when it counts, he could very well be our winner. Time will tell.

Jeff’s quote about taking a chance on somebody is specifically directed towards Cochran but indirectly could be applied to whoever our winner is.

4)Mikayla

Mikayla could be viewed as getting off to a rocky start through immediately being targeted by Brandon as a “Delilah” and “flaunting herself”.

However she has a positive edit and is shown getting in there, helping to build the shelter. Her quote about “getting down and dirty” as referenced above, highlights a key attribute that the winner will be expected to have. Her edit will be interesting to watch, particularly in relation to Brandon.

5)Brandon

At the moment, Brandon’s edit appears to be rather one-sided, very much linked to his desire to redeem the Hantz name from the evil exploits of his uncle Russell. If as seems likely, his relationship to Russell is revealed early on, that can be very well considered to be off to a rocky start. Already Sophie is suspicious of him, that he is hiding something. If he manages to survive the reveal and recovers within the game, his story could yet fall within the proposed theme of the season. Time will tell.

I tentatively would propose that our winner will emerge from the 5 listed above, but may revise my opinion as future episodes reveal insights. I have thoughts around each of the other players, and hope to share in a future posting. For now, my posting focuses on my thoughts around the key themes and potential winners.