LAST EDITED ON 09-30-06 AT 06:23 PM (EST)

VH: The name of Cece was first put forward by Becky and Yul who discussed that her, Ozzy and Sundra didn’t have numbers. I liked your comment about Jonathan’s acting differently with his tribe mates than in confessionals. Many winners have had that ability to tell us only what they think and keep it hidden from the game. To answer your Ozzy question, remember that with Candace’s return, the power triumvirat has a fourth vote. In a tribe of 8, they have the upper hand. Sundra will jump ship, so Ozzy could be isolated. Flicka won’t help no matter what she does. On a side note, it is interesting how your views differ from mine regarding the women particularly. Amazing how we can disagree and get along so well!

The first two episodes introduced the players and started to reveal their game plans. This episode revealed which of the 17 remaining suspects have the:

Means, Motive and Opportunity

Jonathan was one of the stars of this episode and is a very eloquent narrator. Last week had shown us he has the means to go far when it became apparent he was playing as the leader of Rarotonga. This week strengthens his position as he picked another strong player, Yul, and quickly started working with him. This pairing seems to work well and their discussion showed mutual respect. His arrangement with Candace also came off very naturally. It wasn’t so with Flicka when he showed a paternalistic side. His motive is clear: He wants to get to the merge with numbers so that he can be part of the final 5. To him that would be cool but to us, it sounds like foreshadowing: Is that when we see one of his allies cutting his throat? His alliance gives him the opportunity to reach the end but will he fall in the 5th place he’s hoping to reach?

Yul also showed he has the means, the right motivation to be there and the opportunity to make it to the end. He trusts Becky and proves it by telling her he has the idol. Yul is a straight shooter and that could be his downfall. Yul’s return from Exile Island was interesting: While everyone was clapping, Becky was clearly center stage and we saw their hug first but the scene had been cut up. Brad was closest to Yul and since he hugged even Cao Boi after, why didn’t we see him hug Brad? The big brother-little sister bond was very important in this episode. Fixing scenes like this tells me it could have more importance down the road. Could the find be more important to her future than his?

Becky did a lot of the leg work to position herself well in this alliance. She worked quickly to form bonds with Candace and Jonathan, which was highlighted by Jonathan’s remark “I wanted to go to Becky first, she is the key and she came right to me: Great.” It paid off nicely when she was saved at TC. She let Yul and Jonathan do all the work to overturn the decision of the opposing quintet. Had she also gotten Yul to give her the idol? It would be within the powers of a princess! Being a non-threatening follower gives her the opportunity to go far if she can return under the radar. What is her motivation? We haven’t heard her express her goal yet. She trusts Yul “100%”. Does her plan include Outlasting him as a UTR player would? Or could she Ouwit him as a clinical player would? We’ve started to see a cold calculating side to her game as Ozzy commented on her scheming. Ozzy should know!

Ozzy was isolated and put in his place. The fact that Cecilia had no confessionals in her final episode, proves her boot was more to make the viewer appreciate seeing Ozzy get his comeuppance. Last week, the editors worked hard to make Ozzy appear as well as possible despite throwing a challenge, now they prefer showing how someone’s exit affects his position. Certainly, as VH astutely noted last week, Ozzy is decisive and he has the means and the cutthroat approach needed to go far. We heard Jeff and Yul say he was the only one left during the tribal selection. Could that have hurt his ego and had something to do with the tribal divisiveness? We never heard the three guys talking to one another. His methods are once again contrasted with Yul’s. He plotted first with Cao Boi who told him Becky is weak and from there he imposed his views on his group: “Cao Boi is in an alliance with us and Becky is the target, Becky is seriously plotting.” Yul worked with individuals, alternatively talking to Becky, Jonathan and Cao Boi and coordinating his leadership role with Jonathan’s. Ozzy's villain role was highlighted when we first saw him observing Becky walking in camp and then happily whistling while chopping down hard with his machete on a palm frond. If he has the means and the motivation to win the game, he may have lost the opportunity when he told us his group had an agreement but let Flicka reveal the plan to Jonathan.

Rebecca showed you can have a good episode without having center stage. Her challenge performance will earn her a lot of credit in her tribe. Jeff was sure to let us hear she was “a key player in helping Raro get a lead.” She plays a quiet, calculating game that could enable her to have her say in which way the tribe goes. It seems the options are either one of the lazy guys or Parvati and her coquettish duplicity. She did choose to boot laziness once.

Cristina was left in the back ground this week after her starring role last time. She is now separated from Ozzy but their TC showed JP was the one that expressed his emotions against Billy. Cristina couldn’t like hearing that anymore than the plan to throw the challenge. There still has to be a conflict with JP and with Rebecca’s negative view of lazy players, we could have the basis of a strong women’s alliance. These two women seem to have more character than any of the 4 buff guys. They both have the means, working together could give them a good opportunity. Both have been seen to have more interest in having a united tribe than beating them all.

Parvati is very ostentatious with her strategy. Can her scantly clad moves still hide a ferocious desire to defeat her suitors? That game plan has often failed but usually we hear it is used only to save the belle from elimination. VS points that the theme this season is too serious to have a winner’s strategy reduced to flirting but there could be more behind that smile. She was chosen to show reading the tree mail for tribal switch. It was also interesting how the whole tribe was depicted preparing for what they thought was a challenge. Parvati’s agility was clearly demonstrated while Jonathan and Flicka were seen stretching. Candace wasn’t even paying attention at the reading and after we only saw her sipping water. Adam couldn’t even be bothered showing up for the camera. When Parvati hands the idol back to Jeff, I can’t hear what she says: “Make sure...” The intent seemed to be that she was protective of the idol. She was first shown when Jeff mentioned “time to integrate.” To counterpoint Stephannie’s serious words she first tells everyone Adam snores and then confides: “We’re back to America…the melting pot…I’m loving it.” Will she get them all in her “web, chop some head and suck their blood”?

Nathan is having a nice time on the island in fact “getting out of the ghetto…is the best day ever!” Jeff pointed out how “Nate is liking this” when he was picked by JP. He had a nice scene while catching the octopus. If his UTR game can get him to the merge, his physical abilities will put a target on him and could prevent him to advance once the game becomes individual. His motivation is to get along with the tribe. He hasn’t shown any determination to have his name on the check. His weak game plan will not give him the opportunity to win.

JP also played as a follower. His outbursts at the last TC wasn’t tempered by the editors who chose him to tell us how ridiculous Billy was. Ozzy’s role in Billy’s boot was softened for a reason. JP’s role has been enhanced. It cannot be a good sign.

Candace showed some game play that hadn’t been in evidence prior to this episode, too busy she was playing with Adam. Forming an alliance with the two stronger leaders of her tribe is a smart move and it could serve a UTR player well. Having been chosen to go to EI will force her to explain herself once more. She wasn’t shown on the island but it could be saved for next week. I’d rather hear her say something about hating not helping her alliance with a vote than say she was happy to be saved. Hearing nothing would be desastrous. We have yet to hear how determined she is to make it to the end and her opportunity to win will depend on her re-integration with her group.

That leaves us with The Ignorant Bystanders. Has our winner snuck out of the crime scene to mingle within this bunch of clueless players?

Flicka has been a source of inspiration! Her conflicts with Jonathan have inspired two of the first three titles and her ignorance of the game showed me that this episode’s story was about motivation. It gave us indications as to who is determined to go far and who likes the camplife. Flicka is the winner of the second category since she says, “I’m so excited to have fun people to hang out with.”

Stephannie had a better episode but still hasn’t revealed any game plan. Despite being picked last we heard Rebecca greet her with a “Welcome Home.” She had many nice visuals and was first to ask “How did you feel when you learned how the tribes were segregated?” A nice scene unfolded as the tribe sat in a circle, exchanging views. The others talked but the camera kept going back to her until we see her in a confessional: “You don’t see color, you see the heart of the individual.” Powerful words.

Brad has been much too hidden up to now. He was given a nice fishing scene. His first real confessional seemed to reinforce that he isn’t a player. It took him 7 days to arrive at the conclusion that Cao Boi could be a problem, “sort of”! He did however have interesting words after tribal integration about the game. We’ll need to hear more from him.

Jenny hasn’t been given a story. She was the first one picked by Parvati and outlasted 6 women in the challenge yet we haven’t been shown anything of substance since her opening confessional. She has no impact on the story.

Sundra had one moment to express herself on the show and it was to say that she didn’t know if she was valuable or vulnerable being the lone Hiki on NuAitu. She was second out of the challenge right after Cecilia. It cannot be good.

Cao Boi cannot be more abrasive even expressing strong views on American politics. I was expecting to hear some politician say “I approve this message.” The close-up of his lips seemed to indicate: “The views expressed are Cao Boi’s alone and do not reflect the views of this station.” But they chose to show it anyway! The tribe’s weary looks seemed to say: “Keep it for the vote, the november vote that is!” He wants to show he is clueless and his discussion later on with Flicka, even if it was pivotal, didn’t show any determination to make his mark. It was more like appeasing Yul.

Adam has spent three episodes being labeled as a tool. It isn’t good. Adam even sat out a challenge and the “Baby Monkey” has been tagged as lazy. I hear the end approaching.

Cece, the hostess, was the first women out of the challenge and could’ve been considered the weakest because of that. She also had a weird reaction when Jonathan greeted her with a “come here sisters.” She was looking back, appearing to wish being on the tribe standing behind her.

Clearly, if we are going to make a case against anyone of these 17 remaining suspects, Jonathan and Yul, have shown to possess Means, Motive and Opportunity. Are their motive sufficient? They don’t seem to have the killer instinct needed to pull it off. Becky, Rebecca and Cristina have the Means and the Opportunity. Will they have the motive to seize their chance? Ozzy and Parvati have the Means and the Motive. Ozzy has a huge target on his back but his abilities should help him dodge the bullets for now. Can he flip the situation? Parvati’s position is very fragile. A women’s alliance is her best hope but it has to be balanced with keeping the tribe strong. If she makes the merge, then she has an opportunity and would be the player to watch!

It was interesting that during the pick’em, the men mostly knew each other’s names. The women didn’t use the name of one of their picks. VH already pointed out that the men are making the decisions, they also seem to be more into the game. But isn’t this season about Mutiny? We have four strong-willed women. One can certainly emerge.