LAST EDITED ON 09-16-06 AT 06:31 PM (EST)

Excellent insights as always, VS, and I pretty much am in agreement with your assessment of who the likely long-term players in the game will be based on the editing.

Michel, I definitely appreciate the perspective you bring to this thread. I love the tennis analogy, by the way! I found myself thinking: Cao Boi is most certainly not a baseliner but a serve and (verbal) volley specialist. Will Billy, having ‘built’ himself up, serve a double fault at the worst time and lose the match? Does Stephannie have an ace in her locker (because she needs one to save herself)? Does Adam and Candice being the only mixed doubles partners give them any sort of an advantage? Could it be said that Jonathan is neither a player nor a spectator but the match commentator instead? Who’s the leading candidate to throw a John McEnroe tantrum? …..

KoB, many thanks for the music breakdown. It’s certainly adds to the editing weaponry, that’s for sure.

Before I go on, can I just remark on a particular animal visual: that was one giant centipede!

The feeling I get is that the whole issue of race, for now at least, isn’t a burning one. It was a topic of discussion but that is to be expected – an immediate reaction to an unprecedented division of tribes in the game. Nobody came across as being overly uncomfortable with or sensitive to the arrangement. Some, indeed, were quite effusive. There wasn’t any consideration given to how it may impact on long term strategy, either, beyond, perhaps, the opinions of the two men from the Raro tribe that, in fact, it isn’t the least bit relevant (Adam talked about the right people and personalities regardless of ethnicity and Jonathan mentioned that sooner or later you’re going to have to “cut somebody’s throat.” Admittedly, Yul did raise the prospect of stereotyping. Even here, though, his reservations weren’t exactly damning; he was prepared, instead, to be open-minded, adding “…..it should interesting.” Ozzy’s concern was limited to the effects within the tribe itself rather than dynamics of the game as a whole.

Actually, if I was to highlight one thing from the opening episode as possibly significant it would be the perception that the greater focus was on the men - in the forefront (a greater combined air time, more confessionals), be it positively or negatively. The women, in contrast, largely took a back seat in the editing (The face time for Stepahnnie, as VS mentioned, is related to her tribe going to TC and her casting the decisive vote. As for Flicka, we can simply conclude the chicken incident had to be shown!). The question I have with this setup, are we meant to suppose the men are the controllers, the dominant forces, the power base in the game or, alternatively, it’s all just pretense and the women are the ones actually pulling the strings from amongst the shadows? For now, I’m leaning towards the final outcome being shaped by the men, if only because they’ve been portrayed as the stronger and, arguably, more notable (BR’s post is a good supporting reference) characters.

I won’t tread on the same ground as VS with regards to which contestants to look out for but I’d like to pass comment on a few individuals.

For me there were three standouts:

Cao Boi – The most prominent person in the opening episode. There is definitely crash and burn potential here although it’s safe to assume, however long he lasts, we’ll get a lot of mileage out of him. The portents appear to be good, I’d suggest. Next week’s preview of Cowboy exasperating his tribemates suggests he may be in line for the boot if Puka ends up at TC but it also smacks of misdirection. A clue to his durability comes from Yul who was quick to revise his first impression of him as a complete screwball to someone who has “gems of nuggets that are useful”. The implication may be that Cowboy can play a role in Yul’s plans – whatever they may be – and, therefore, should not be so readily dispensed with. I would also add that Cowboy’s own observation that he has never fit in with the Asian community opens up the possibility for matchups with members from other tribes when the merge(s) occur (which could be interpreted as being beneficial to Cowboy himself and, for that matter, a means for others to lure him over to their side).

Yul – Ticks the right boxes, doesn’t he? If there is a such thing, however, his whole edit was almost too positive (and I include the praise Jeff lavished on him pre-game, comments that extended to his delight if he won). He’s smart, thoughtful, articulate, has an excellent sense of awareness and can hold his own physically in challenges. So what’s the downside, I wonder? With Yul, I already find myself waiting for when, and not if, the other shoe will drop.

Ozzy – Received a very well-rounded edit that bodes well for his chances. Climbing the tree to get the coconuts establishes his intrinsic value both as an individual and to his tribe. J.P.’s subsequent remarks that Ozzy is “gonna be pretty good at this game” reinforced the positive vibe we get from him but not overly so, leaving us to ask, naturally, will it be good enough. Nonetheless, Ozzy’s appearances, from confessionals to camp life to the immunity challenge, were all very measured. He was included at regular intervals to be ‘seen’ by the viewer, though never in an overtly attention-seeking way.

Hard to get a handle on:

Stephannie – I’m intrigued by her. On the one hand she’s the self-professed ‘odd man out,’ making her ripe for the next boot if Sundra and Rebecca feel so inclined. On the other hand, Nathan can’t be sure if her outsider status excludes an estrogen alliance and, consequently, his apparent usefulness to them as the remaining male in the tribe. It would easy to view Sekou’s elimination, for example, as a simple case of maintaining the upper hand in gender numbers. Moreover, since both are now vulnerable for their respective reasons, teaming up offers each other protection (in theory you could get a 2-2 split at TC). So Stepahnnie now finds herself in a position that is either very good or extremely detrimental. The outcome will be determined by her powers of persuasion, convincing Sundra and Rebecca that the women should stick together and that they ‘owe’ her having voted with them to kick Sekou off the tribe whilst, at the same time, point out to Nathan the danger of assuming he’s more valuable. Could we get a surprising resolution?

For what it’s worth, I sense there is more to come from Nathan, Sundra, Jonathan, Billy, Jenny and Parvati. I’m ambivalent about Cecilia, Cristina, J.P., Brad, Flicka and Rebecca. Adam and Candice were too one-dimensional (nothing apart from the budding romance) albeit it brings about a possible voting bloc. And poor Becky. Has a contestant ever been so completely ignored in a season premiere of Survivor? She was so anonymous that I have a hard time believing that she is merely being saved for later to be introduced as a long term player. If she gets a healthy spike next episode we might even presume that she’s the second person to go!

VH
*edited to fix typos*