Watching Survivor wouldn't be as fun if it wasn't for this thread! I loved your commentary VS. Very nice analysis of the Cristina/Ozzy conflict and the brother-sister link of our two Korean contestants. Yul is impressive as a player, isn’t he? AG, I also noted the fire starting scene at Hiki had to come after the challenge but I hadn’t made the connection you propose about Aitu almost beating them even if they were trying to lose. We have to take note that it could be a bad sign for the Hiki tribe members in future challenges. I’m impressed that FP sees Cristina as the villain and Ozzy as the good leader. I don’t think that was the intent of the editors but sometimes you need to see through the first level.

With all the tension, the love at first sight, the treachery and the conflicts, this episode revealed:
The Strong and the Clueless

The Strong come in different types according to their game plan. Thanks to VS who described winners in three categories. Now that we’re starting to know who are the players and who are the spectators, the editors gave us glimpses into the players' game plans.

The Ones in Charge: Previous winners of this type include Tom and Tina.

Ozzy is very strong at survival but maybe not so much at “Survivor”. He had said he didn’t want the lead but he doesn’t seem to be able to restrain himself. We start by seeing him working with his tribe and catching fish and chicken. JP again comments on how good Ozzy is at this. Throwing a challenge is something the editors have treated very carefully in the past. He was given the best possible edit under the circumstances. Without all the corroboration from Billy himself, Ozzy’s character would have been unsalvageable. Since he won’t need complete redemption, it is a good sign. However, I feel his story is more about the adventure and living in nature. He is well equiped for that. The arrogance displayed in his confessionals is not so good for the social aspects of the game and it does come out when he speaks to his team mates.

Yul had a tremendous episode. Until the challenge, everything that Ozzy did, Yul also did but in a much classier way. They both start trapping chickens but his method was completely different than Ozzy’s and every member of his tribe stood behind him. He only received approval for his capture, whereas Cristina remained upset after, complaining that Ozzy had to have things done his way. When Yul talked with Becky, we saw the mutual respect and understanding. In contrast, Cristina reached the point that she couldn’t trust Oscar anymore. Yul has an outsider in his tribe but he finds an accomodation so that the team can be the well-oiled machine VS mentioned. Ozzy used the easy way out.
Even the challenge gave contrasting results, Ozzy lost dead weight as he wanted, Yul gained the idol he wasn’t expecting. I don’t know if Yul has the winning edit but right now I would say he Outlasts Ozzy. His EI edit was powerful. I loved the camera angles that showed the A formed by the masts and the island and how the Southern Island slowly vanished. We solved the clue through his eyes and we knew he was bound to find it even before he started digging.

Jonathan is a fun character. He should last until the merge and continue narrating the events of whichever tribe he’s on. He didn’t antagonize Adam and I got the impression that Candice’s advice was to get the lazy one back in Papa Bear’s good side rather than to vote him out later. His main problem is that he is leading a tribe more intent on cuddling than working. His early exile also hurt him. Establishing leadership takes time. I don’t see him being able to carry his game plan to fruition.

The clinical Players play calculating games and don’t let emotions interfere. Previous winners include Vecepia and Brian:

Rebecca could be the player to make it out of the hood! Nathan appreciates her skills and strength while Sundra has her back. She seems friendly enough not to make ennemies in any new tribe. She hasn’t taken charge of the tribe but everything revolves around her. Granted, her story his very thin still, but she could make it a long way.

Cristina couldn’t stay out of the action very long. We see her trying to play a rational game where losing numbers isn’t smart. She put herself right in the middle and opposed the leader of her tribe. It isn’t a good idea unless you have the numbers for a coup d’état. Booting Ozzy would have been folly at this time but making him aware of your reservations is also dangerous. I don’t think Aitu will return to TC in this form but if she hesitates this much again, it could cost her the game in any tribe.
The need to trust someone that Cecilia explained and the emotional attachment she felt for Billy are bad for clinical players. I also took note that she was Billy’s Queen but since he’s gone, where does that leave her? Another thing I don’t know how to interpret is Cristina calling Ozzy by his given name “Oscar”. Does she actually see him as the 14 year-old he mentioned? Her edit is very complex and they chose this episode to have us hear her policewoman story. She could be getting Dan’s hero-edit.

The Under the Radar Players can direct attention on someone else and improve their end game position without taking command. Sandra won this way. The first three have a chance to reap the rewards from their strategy. The other two have the wrong plan.

Parvati didn’t do much in this episode except give the immunity idol a great big smile of satisfaction! Her position in Raro’s dynamics is almost ideal. She could vote with anyone and no one has a reason to want to vote against her first. She is with everyone and can be against anyone.

Becky aligning with Yul was a natural bond. Cao Boi has to be target #1 and having chosen her to participate in the challenge indicates the tribe perceives her as stronger than Jenny. The alliance is key in her game plan and had to be shown so I don’t think we can conclude it will cost her. It merely means the F2 shouldn’t be Yul & Becky but one of them can still make it.

Cecilia has been very quiet but she also is in a good position within the power structure at Aitu. She doesn’t have a strong bond with anyone so a switch could put her in trouble.

JP was happy that Ozzy proposed to toss the challenge. Indeed, it is bad form for a player that doesn’t want to attract attention to use such drastic measures. He follows Ozzy in every decisions and doesn’t even play the challenge. The problem is that strong athletic men are always going to be viewed as targets. Picking up the fight at TC is also a sign that he can’t remain calm when it is needed. His game plan is doomed.

Nathan is a strong and friendly man who should make it to the merge and then he will be defenseless. He is alone with his three strong sisters but he makes himself useful as witnessed by his leadership role in the challenge. His strength will be useful to the tribe he lands in. His strategic game seems too weak to give him a chance to Outwit.

The Clueless
The first five players aren’t completely clueless but the editors haven’t bothered showing their strategy yet. Their future cannot be anymore positive than the 3 really clueless ones.

Flicka hasn’t found her place yet but her hard work seems to have put her back on the tribe’s good side. Jonathan seems to have forgiven her. We have seen an actor-fire dancer duo go far together before despite always fighting each other! Being an outsider prevents her from playing UTR or taking charge. She does seem to have the analytical capabilities to be a clinical player but we’ve seen she’s too emotional.

Brad, Jenny, Sundra and Stephannie all seem to contribute to the work around camp but they don’t have any impact on the story. In Sundra’s case, I found it troubling that her introductory confessional was the only one left out of the recap.

Candice has placed herself in a bad position. Teaming up with Adam may get her booted by association. The team can keep the muscle for challenges but boot his ally to strip his power.

Adam the All-American Boy cannot last very long with what we’ve been shown so far. If it was only a question of being hungry and it wasn’t going to have impact down the road, we probably wouldn’t have heard him say building a shelter is dumb. To have that scene shown is a certain sign he doesn’t go far.

Cao Boi his not helping his cause even if he seems to be able to work with the others and is good enough in challenges. He won’t fit in any tribe and probably doesn’t make the merge.

I rarely comment on the booted player but in Billy’s case I can’t help but add that it is rare an episode has so little mis-direction. Roger in the Amazon had an episode dedicated solely on showing how disillusional it was to think he was safe. It must have hurt him watching it air. Billy must have hurt as he lived it because he knew he was next. Candice did say, “Love you” first to him at the end of the challenge. Billy probably chose to forget that she used the pronoun “we” in front.

In conclusion, I feel the editors are telling us Ozzy, Yul, Rebecca, Parvati and Becky are going to be the long term players. The story should develop around these players.