LAST EDITED ON 09-22-06 AT 04:15 PM (EST)

Great analysis as usual VS!
I'll do my long post later on after watching a second time - but I had a few interesting observations:
In watching the insider video of Nathan's views - it became clear that Hiki did not get fire until AFTER the immunity challenge. That explains a lot about their poor performance, as he comments that they were all severely dehydrated at the challenge. It also makes Stephanie's desperation comment more understandable. We were obviously manipulated on this, but why? I cant decide if it was to make them look capable with the fire getting it earlier, or if we were supposed to think they're just pathetic in challenges? I'm leaning toward the latter. Showing why they were performing poorly would have given us a reason to write it off as no big deal, instead it was reinforced by a comment made by JP later about how even trying to lose they almost beat Hiki. I agree, VS I dont see a winner coming from this tribe, but I also dont think any of them are in imminent danger based on editing. I think there are other fish to fry first.

Also of note - In the opening credits the white bird (which was shown clearly in this episode as you noted VS) is directly linked to Ozzy. That is "HIS" bird. The opening credits show his sequence, then the bird mid-flight (somewhat arresting and fairly long shot), a shot of the water/islands, and then Cecelia, thus the bird cant be linked to her since the water shot breaks that bond. This alone convinced me that even though he was shown in trouble this episode there was no way he was going home.

As for throwing the challenge - while this on many levels is just stupid, I could see a reasoning that I hope for his sake Ozzy had that is more intelligent than lack of work ethic - with a tribal mixup likely coming very soon, they had one member who obviously felt excluded and would very likely (ok, almost certainly) have jumped ship on them as soon as he could have. That IS a real threat, and good reason to get rid of him. You want to go into a mixup or a merge with a tight bond in your group because an alienated player not just becomes one less on your side - but one more person actually against you. The only way that Ozzy would know that Billy would have no chance to turn on him/them would be to get rid of him, and the sooner the better since they dont know when the tribes will be shuffled. We didnt see Ozzy commenting on this - although JP did mention Billy's trustworthiness in his comment at Tribal Council when giving his vote.
Warning VS - I'm not sure you'll want to read this next line, but it isnt a spoiler...In an interview Billy commented that he himself chose who was going to Exile Island and he chose Yul because he thought he had the best chance of finding it. He therefore was working against his team - and Ozzy is therefore in a better position with him gone. Stupid, stupid move on Ozzy's part to alienate members of his tribe like he did this episode though.

I also think that all of our feelings that Yul was an important player have been confirmed obviously, now we know why he's been highlighted. I think he'll go far, but now I have more faith in the swimming opening credits shot ruling him out as a winner. His obvious imporance and longevity edit had me wondering - but now that makes sense even if he doesnt win. I think this episode definitely reinforced his F3 candidacy. Who would want to take such a likeable, smart, good guy to the F2?

Parvati this episode and in the preview has been given a bit of a ditzy shallow edit - probably not a good sign for her. She had a good first episode, but I'm unsure now. Adam's edit was horrible, we've been shown why he'll go home, and we were supposed to dislike him this episode. There was no glossing over or positive spin for him whatsoever, not a good sign. Candice on the other hand while not being shown much, was shown giving good advice and working to ease tensions in her little bit of face time.

Oh, and again congrats to Michel for an accurate boot prediction!

Ok, so has anyone noticed that I always say "this one will be short, I'll do my long post later" and then go on to ramble on and on? ;) I cant wait to hear what everyone thinks about this episode, I'm beginning to think that this is going to be a great season - and it'll be very interesting to see how a cast full of people who arent experienced with the game play (Something like 85% right?). Sort of like going back to the age of innocence.

As for Billy's professions of love - well it was certainly entertaining! I just wondered "Oh god, what are they going to do if Candice gets voted out before the jury?!?!?!" That poor girl! He sounded much more sane on the early show thank god.