Welcome IrishCharm! For the record - NO bashing will happen here! Thats part of the reason I truly enjoy this forum - and the one for survivor as well. In fact, your opinions are all the more welcome for being different from other people's - different perspectives give a more rounded view for the rest of us. And I second Michel - anyone that enjoys this thread and is a Survivor fan should def. check out VS's editing thread! Its incredible.

On some things I am in agreement with you IC, and thus in disagreement with others. I have all along felt that MoJo would at the least be final four - but honestly, I think they'll be first or second. I agree with you that this episode actually was in favor of their being end-game. In the first few episodes they didnt receive too much air time, but then they got quite a spike once the really weak teams went by the way side - and showing a bit of conflict between them was a good thing I think. They arent constantly negative or bickering though, so I think we're seeing a well rounded team. One that has its struggles, but is a strong team. I seem to recall reading or hearing Monica say somewhere that they bicker a lot. We havent seen this much to date, but here we did. If they bicker a lot normally I would think this will likely roll off their shoulders and wont hold them back in the race. So far they've been shown to be the leaders of the second pack. And they're gaining on the boys. We havent seen any of the other teams even remotely come close to competing with the boys.

The frat boys and BJ/Tyler - One of them will be in the final three, and the other will not. I think the team that will not will be either fourth or fifth. Their edit has been so completely tied to each other, and honestly how can it not? They tend to feed of each other and depend on each other a lot though. It will be VERY interesting to see what happens to them when they're broken up and dont have each other to compete with, or work with? I think this will inevitably happen at some point. Will one team fall apart and the other continue to excel? I am growing more convinced that this is what will happen. Also - are they REALLY that good racers, or are they just good because they've been far enough ahead to not have any competition, and the resulting stress of that???

Fran and Barry - I have to say they're doing pretty well, but we keep being focused on their struggles (even when they're still doing well!). I dont see them in the final three. One of these times their mistakes - and their inability to calmly deal with things will be their downfall. I do find their fairly negative edit very interesting though. Its certainly a new thing to have a negatively edited older team. I think one more team will go before they do, but I just dont see them as end-game.

Lake and Michelle - I have to say that I am not as frustrated with their interaction as most people, nor do I think Lake is quite the jerk everyone thinks he is. He frustrates me, but honestly - I've been with someone very similar for a long time. If we ever went on TAR he would def. be considered a villian! BUT - we, like Lake and Michelle have an interaction that while others may not get it - works for us, and the bickering while somewhat distracting and frustrating - is easily brushed off and not a huge issue or detriment. So, I get their relationship and how they work together. Not too many people could handle Lake, but Michelle can and does. Their bickering doesnt bring them to their knees like it does other teams (Jonathan and Victoria - ugh!). Their main problem though - is the mistakes they make. The biggest one being - Lake doing all of the roadblocks at the beginning - even NON-physical ones! This will be their downfall. Michelle will have to do a roadblock that Lake could have done much faster - and other teams having been smarter about doling tasks out will finish much faster.
Ray and Yolanda - very simple. They have had major struggles, yet they are being shown very positive and strong. Absolutely NO FOCUS on any weakness from them - even when they were last Phil talked about their strength as a team! And I think this is the FIRST time in the history of the race that we werent shown any suspense between the final two teams coming in as to who would be last - it was comletely obvious, even though they could have easily made it seem close. No way they're going home any time soon. Final four at least.

I'm thinking our final three are BJ/Tyler, MoJo, and Ray and Yolanda. I see Eric and Jeremy going fourth or fifth as a real shocker. Lake and Michelle and Fran and Barry are interchangeable in my mind as to when they will go. Truly, when each of these three teams will go is a matter of who makes their fatal mistake when. Fran and Barry will likely be earlier rather than later though I think.

Here's my tentative lineup:

6th - Fran and Barry
5th - Eric and Jeremy
4th - Lake and Michelle (Michelle struggles with the roadblock)
3rd - Ray and Yolanda
2nd - BJ and Tyler
1st - MoJo

But really, I'd say 4th-6th are interchangeable (except Eric and Jeremy wont be 6th), and 1st-3rd are interchangeable (BJ and Tyler wont be 3rd either I dont think) at this point.
I could maybe see BJ and Tyler and Eric and Jeremy switched, with BJ and Tyler as the sympathetic boot (Lake and Michelle and Fran and Barry certainly havent been edited to be that). But, I'm not very keen on that. BJ and Tyler have been shown to be the better racers I think. And this race really has been shown to be about fun (note - Moninca was DEFINITELY shown to be having fun at the beginning of the fish carrying. Fran and Barry didnt appear to be having fun, but they were showing saying they did). The hippies have personified the "fun" of the race. I think they'll outlast the frat boys for that reason at the least.