Michel,

I just want to say what a great job you have been doing on this thread this season. I really hope that RAY win, if only I can somewhat share in your vindication. I haven’t posted the last couple of weeks due to time commitments and the excellent job you have been doing.

I have a couple things to add to the last few episodes. In hindsight both eliminations should have been filed into the What we should have known file. L&M story was built on their relationship. Both AG & I noticed a softening of their story prior to their elimination and we both noticed that their story was built on their ability to have this relationship even though that it appeared odd to the rest of us. Michelle’s post-race’s comments echoed this theme.

In regards to F&B, Michel made a quality comment in the voting thread last week regarding the first to worst placing. In hindsight this was a great comment. Considering their underdog status and their first place standing in the prior week episode this should have been considered the end to their story arc. I will also file that in TAR, numbers are not as significant as in Survivor. I, as others, was suckered into the 4th place comments.

On to more recent events.

E&J have done well in this race but my perception is that they are the most in trouble. Both the camel challenge two weeks ago and their inability at the prison this week were focused on heavily. Combined with their errant shortcut in the prior episode gives some cause. This is one of the more dominate teams in TAR history, but over the last two episodes a great deal of doubt has been implied in situations where doubt is not necessary. While a certain sense of vulnerability is nice for a winner, combined with an overall general negative edit leads me to believe that E&J do not win.

As a casual fan I don’t like MoJo, and as a student of the editing I don’t like MoJo. In both cases I would be disappointed if they won. In my limited memory the third place team tends to be portrayed as a villain. E&J could also take this spot.

We knew from the beginning that BJ&T would be around for awhile. I agree with Michael that we have seen enough vulnerability for them to win, but as Michel has stated many times, with tourists and competitors BJ&T seem to fit both groups. In the episode where L&M were eliminated BJ&T held, what I interpreted, a defeatist attitude. Their comments were, and I paraphrase, that “We had fun and we will be eliminated now”. They were not, of course, but that sentiment has carried with me.

R&Y are still perplexing. Their fight two episodes ago appeared to be resolved, or at least swept under the rug. Is this the end of their story? I guess I could make an argument that they are the next eliminated team. I don’t believe it. They could be a second place team with just enough moxy to fall short of the more positive winner, BJ&T. Ray has reiterated his “one by one quote” three times now. Yolanda also reiterated her “run fast’ quote during the “Olympic games” episode. I am guessing that Yolanda’s ability to “run fast" or not will be the key.

I am guessing the next episode will be a NEL so we should get another look at each of the teams before the next elimination. There are still many questions, and themes, yet to be answered.