While I have this spoiler as at least 50/50 hoax now, it is interesting to look at knowing the opening dynamics.

Kourtney, gone:

Monica: At risk, not in majority challenge, not seen in basketball challenge.

Matt: First on the hit list for the misfits if they ally.

Bill: Part of muscle men alliance so disposable if Colton rallies misfits.

Colton: On everyone's hit list once his idol is gone.

Tweeter Christina: On Alicia's hit list at first TC, escaped with no vote.

Initially, Matt and Bill fit the profile of strong guys who are not out early, and would not necessarily have been predicted to go early, but now it is rather more clear how that could happen.

Also seemed unlikely that Leif and Jonas and especially Greg/Tarzan would not be at risk, but if they and Troyzan ally with Colton, we could see a Vanuatu style slaughter of the hot guys.

Of course, if the men all make it to the swap, that 5-person potential alliance never tests its power, so we would have to look at the swap.

Per FP:

New Manono: Leif, Bill, Alicia, Jonas, Colton, Christina, Greg, Mystery woman seen with Sabrina -- Chelsea?

Here, Colton, Jonas, Greg if Misfit alliance exists, could target Bill, the only Muscletastic 4 on Nu Manono.

New Salini: (Monica?), Jay, Katt, Sabrina, Troyzan, Matt, Kimberly, Michael

Here we see 3 of the Muscletastic 4, all but Bill. However, if Troyzan goes with the women, Matt is a likely boot.

In a normal season, those four guys would have a ticket almost to the merge, but due to the rivalry and drama that started off this season, the alpha males could just be everybody's first pick to be out of there.

The main problem I see with the spoiler is Nina not part of it. Of course we do have one of the pre-merge folks not in the Flight Five.