LAST EDITED ON 02-16-12 AT 08:01 PM (EST)

Hi OFG, glad that you are revisiting this spoiler, because I have thought about it too. I believe that it appears that Nina and Matt are doomed. Most likely to go as pre-tribal shuffle boots.

You know, now that we have a new identified IC in ep 2, that was formerly not known, we know that most likely, the tribal shuffle will occur in episode 4. So, if the shuffle is indeed in episode 4, and there is 3 people out of the game, it must be 2 women, and 1 man.

Most likely it will be Kourtney(known), Nina - could possibly be Monica. For the men, they are all seen except Troyzan or Matt. An educated guess at this point would indeed be Matt, as Colton looks like he is going to rally the misfits, and take down the head of the dominant men, Matt. Troyzan could be an incidental target however if he refuses to play, or sits on the fence.....we have often seen fence sitters get sacrificed...hello Dolly

OFG: With my latest spec, however, I think it is more likely that Bill will end up on the Salani Blue tribe post shuffle. With 8 guys left I think it is likely to be a 4/4 shuffle, equal amount of guys on both tribes. With 7 girls left it will have to be a 4/3 swap. If Salani is down 2, they are the tribe that will be short...in other words, they will have 7 members, while Manono will have 8....if it's uneven numbers at the shuffle...

We have seen:
new Salani: Jay, Michael, Katt, Sabrina, Kim ?Troy/?Matt/?Bill
new Manono: Colton, Jonas, Leif, Greg, Chelsea, Christina, Alicia, ?Monica

My spec now is that Monica will actually go to the new Manono tribe, we have seen evidence of their 4 men already present in the post shuffle challenges - Colton, Jonas, Leif, Greg, so now they need 4 girls, as they are the tribe that will be up by one in number. WE have seen evidence of Chelsea, Christina, Alicia all on orange, so I think Monica will also be on Manono post shuffle.

That leaves the tribe with 7, 4/3 guys to girls as Jay, Michael, Bill, and one of Troy/Matt, along with the three girls Katt, Sabrina, Kim.

Just throwing this out there....would make it harder to see how Bill could be voted out when he's with his boys post shuffle.

This spec could be wrong and they are just placed helter skelter on tribes...?