The story that Jeff says they tell over and over again is how the Hero (the eventual winner), accompanied by one trusted friend, battles the Villain. Batman and Robin as the Dynamic Duo against the Joker. That story worked best in Survivor’s most successful season, the Outback, where we had Tina and Colby fighting together against Jerri. We saw the pattern again with Rupert and Sandra against Fairplay, Amber and Rob against Lex, Chris and Twila against Ami, Tom and Ian against Katie, Aras and Cirie against Terry.

Sometimes it’s a duo against everybody else: Rich and Rudy against Pagong, Danni and Rafe against the Axis of Evil, Yul and Ozzy against Raro, Earl and Yau Man against the 4 Horsemen, Todd and Amanda against Jean Robert, James and Zhan Hu, JT and Stephen against Timbira.

Being an unscripted show, the roles aren’t always as clearly defined. For example Ian and Katie were friends. Or one can think of Bob and Sugar against Kenny where Matty would have fit better than Bob who took his place next to Sugar very late in the season. Or Jenna and Heidi against Rob when it would have been so much better, for the editors and many of the viewers, if it had been Rob and Matt against Jenna. The one constant is that the two friends come to rely completely on each other through most of the game.

Who forms the dynamic duo this season? We have, on one side: Coach with one of Brandon, Sophie, Albert or Edna. On the other: Cochran and Dawn. It’s immediately clear that Sophie, Albert and Edna’s stories don’t have the amplitude associated with the players listed above. Between Brandon and Coach, we know that there are issues. Coach even said that Brandon will be shocked to learn some things later. The trust isn’t like we saw in those other examples.

No, the duo that fits best is Cochran and Dawn so, therefore, the antagonist is Coach.

The next question obviously is: Does this season fit the pattern well, partially or not at all? Since Jeff mentioned it before this season, we have to assume it does. Afterall, he did mention Game Theory just before Cesternino was about to show it in action.

The biggest question is: Cochran or Dawn? Who is the Hero, who is the sidekick?

Thinking about this showed me flaws in Cochran’s edit:

In episode 1 Semhar said something like Cochran was playing the game in his head, not really playing. (I’d love the exact quote but Global has erased the video)

In episode 2 Mark said that John’s biggest problem was that, physically, he would be a threat to himself.

In the latest episode, Dawn said: “I won’t say a thing, I am just going to let you play…To me, that’s just like starting a war and that’s not how you remedy something…Why would they watch out for you over their own people? If they had two people winning immunity today, they wouldn’t even be talking to you…You totally have to play wour game but I am telling you: What goes around, comes around. I think the way you treat people totally affects the way you live your life and I think that is going to affect them in this game.”

Maybe Papa Bear was right about Cochran hurting himself but socially, not physically. Maybe Semhar is right and Cochran’s move was great on paper but not in real-life Survivor. And, even if Dawn meant that the CoolKids would get what’s coming to them, in this social game the implication is that Cochran will get hurt for starting this war.

Those doubts aren’t the kind we want to find in an eventual winner because they question his character, not his circumstances.

Dawn could very well be our winner and it came to me that most of my concerns about her center on game analysis, not editing analysis. Her edit does have flaws, mostly that she was often ignored, not part of the story. That her own story was more about proving herself than winning (much like Yau Man, Ian, Stephen…) Another problem is that we heard Dawn change her mind only after we had heard her saying she was safe from the vote. It makes her look very much like an opportunist. Some might even say a hypocrite.

Game wise, she is in a big predicament but we have seen that there are cracks in the Upolu 6. Maybe Rick’s surprise at receiving votes caused another fracture. Galu’s John had told us it wasn’t fun being designated as the pawn so maybe Rick will have the same reaction when he learns that Sophie knew he was Savaii’s target and didn’t tell him. Rick, Dawn and Cochran; that’s still only three votes but once the rest of Savaii is gone, they’ll be needing only 1 or 2 more.

It’s interesting to note that, by leaving a “mom” that cared for him, Cochran joined a “father” that may not be too compassionate.

The recap of next episode will be interesting. Will Jeff say that Dawn tried to save Cochran from making a dangerous move, will he say that Cochran took his fate in his own hands or will that scene, the last exchange between Dawn and Cochran, be ignored. If Jeff implies that Dawn was the voice of reason, I will have to seriously reconsider my pick.