I agree with your overall argument, Belle, but we can't always assume that one of the F3 will be a dud. Someone can win with 4 votes, if there is a 3-2 split on the others. It is not very likely, but it could happen.I don't think Cochran gets four votes either. I don't think more than ONE person MIGHT vote for him. Even Phillip got one vote.
Not one player respects Cochran's game play. It is all Probst and CBS calling him a mastermind. He is a mastermind like Phillip is Special Forces.
Now, IF Cochran could somehow put Savai'i back in the driver's seat, single-handedly pulling off a coup, he MIGHT get Rob C type respect by the end. But there is really no more doubt that 2 S's go home this week than there was last season that 2 Zaps would go. That leaves 2 Savai'i and the turncoat against six Upolu.
Upolu is not dysfunctional like Galu, which was cocky about it's 8-4 majority. Upolu is dysfunctional more like Casaya. And unlike Timbira, another tribe that squandered being up at the merge, we have no real development of feuds between the remaining Upolu. No Tyson upsetting Erinn, no Brendan worrying Coach, and there is no member of Savai'i whom Coach wants to annoint as the next Saint JT.
If you take a look at out story to date on Upolu:
Brandon vs. Mikayla was a pre-merge story that was well resolved.
Stacey and Mikayla can't stand Edna was a pre-merge story.
Christine worries everyone, another pre-merge story.
So really, what have the editors given us with respect to why Upolu turns on itself? We have maybe storylines:
1) Coach-Albert-Sophie hid the idol from Brandon-Edna-Rick. However, they fixed that, and it is unlikely to be confessed.
2) Coach protected Edna over Mikayla, which caused him to go against Albert and Sophie (but when they found the idol together, that was bonding). If Coach is seen to protect Edna, that could cause Sophie and Albert to worry he is herding her to the end. They could also worry that Brandon is a kept goat.
However, Coach himself is a goat, so most likely these two would work to eliminate Edna or Brandon rather than Coach.
3) Brandon is playing that the six go to the end as LOYAL. Any attempt to cut an Upolu before a Savai'i without immunity is going to wig Brandon out.
So these are the storylines we've been given. In strict game sense, Upolu who might team up with Savai'i are the two possibly at bottom of alliance:
Edna and Rick may sense they are on the fringes. However, the only game we've heard from either is about staying loyal. Ditto with Brandon.
More likely, the Upolu will go to F7 before they fracture. They could fracture at F9, but why would 2 Upolu team up with 3 Savai'i? (Counting Cochran as an S still.)
While Cochran could be dragged to the end as a GOAT RAT, there would then be FOUR disgruntled Upolu not in the F3. While that MIGHT get Cochran some votes from those who feel betrayed, I don't think the Upolu are stupid enough to play it out that way. Cochran won't go on an immunity streak to the end. I just don't see him getting there.
Editing is great stuff, but it's the same problem as with Erinn in Tocantins. She was never going to win the jury in that game. She was at best second place. So she could not be getting the winner's edit.