For 19 days, two tribes, Upolu and Savaii, traded victories in one of the closest battles ever.
When they merged it was still Upolu against Savaii.
But, at the first Tribal Council after the merge, Cochran betrayed his old tribe, sending Keith to Redemption Island, giving the old Upolu a numbers advantage and sending the old Savaii into a state of shock.
<We heard Whitney saying she was disgusted at Cochran>
When Ozzy failed to win immunity, the old Upolu jumped at the opportunity to vote him out, sending him to RI for the second time.
At the next immunity challenge, Whitney hung on for a win.
Back at camp, after previously going against his alliance and targeting Edna, Albert again tried to take control by targeting Dawn.
But, at Tribal Council, Albert’s plan was rejected by Coach and the rest of the old Upolu tribe.
Jim was sent to Redemption Island and now, with seven remaining in the Upolu alliance, the question is: Will anyone seize the opportunity to team up with Dawn and Whutney and turn the game upside down?

Using the verb “betrayed” to describe Cochran’s actions towards Savaii was accurate but it wasn’t the nicest way to spin the story in his favor. In fact it was a bad introduction for Cochran.
Jeff mentioned that Ozzy failed to win immunity when he could simply have said that Jim won it. It could be an indication that Ozzy will fail again later on.
Another player had a bad introduction: It wasn’t really necessary to tell us about Albert’s plan to target Dawn first but it was mentioned so we have to conclude that the editors really wanted us to remember that Albert tried to take control and failed.

Information Is The Biggest Power

Redemption Island – Night 24

As he woke up his old allies, we heard Jim saying: “I thought we were supposed to be the final 3.”

Jim: “The longer that Coach has them believing that they are one tribe, the more likely it is that he wins the million dollars.”
Keith said Coach would bring Edna and Cochran to the end.
Jim agreed.

Hearing Keith talking about the Final 3 we had been expecting, it gives us pause. Maybe Edna isn’t the third finalist. But, just like we didn’t believe Jim when he said that Cochran would finish third, we have to think that Coach won’t win.

Te Tuna

Returning to camp, Coach told Whitney and Dawn that Jim was the most dangerous kind of person: “To your face and on the surface, he looks like the best friend to everybody but, when the chips are down, he wouldn’t do a thing for you. That’s the worse kind of guy.”

With Jim reneging on his plan to give Ozzy the immunity necklace, we have to say that Coach is right. What was interesting was that the camera switched to show Albert and Rick as if these words also applied to them.

Coach: “Survivor 101; rule 37: Everybody that is on the bottom of an alliance better not feel like they are on the bottom of the alliance or they are going to revolt and try to scramble to find themselves a better place in the game. That’s why I keep talking to people about unity and respect <Albert shown again> because people get scared in this game. Blindsides happen every day. In fact, more blindsides happen than alliance sticking together.”

Whitney: “Coach is running the show like he’s Jesus. Do they all think they are gonna go to the end? Obviously, seven can’t gp to the end and it’s so frustrating. I kinda want to laugh at them: You are so smart. Cochran went to Harvard, Sophie is going to med school. I don’t understand how these “smart” people can be so stupid.”

An obvious answer would be that these people are indeed smart and are going to the end. Coach, Sophie and Cochran? Or just Sophie and Cochran? Then who would be their third?

The next morning, Coach was teaching some Tai Chi moves to Cochran.

Cochran: “As painful as it is for me to admit it, I am drinking Coach’s Kool-Aid. I’m drinking it very slowly, not in huge gulps…If I am not in the cult-leaders side, I am going to meet an untimely death so I got to obey the father of the family.”

Coach told him he was worried: “Albert has been really squirrely…Brandon is running around in Brandon-mode. Sometimes I think I am going to get blindsided.”
Cochran was worried himself about being voted out.
Coach said he’d do everything in his power to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Cochran: “I was kind of alarmed to hear that Coach is concernded about Albert’s mind in the game right now. I think there is some sort of power struggle. Albert, he is possibly one of the two biggest leaders of that group so it is possible that he is aware that they are gunning for him earlier than they say they are. So, I’m starting to get concerned about my place in this game. I felt comfortable 24 hours ago. Today, I am not so comfortable.”

Redemption Arena

When Jeff mentioned that the losers would be on the jury, we heard Whitney saying Wow! and saw Albert mouthing the word What?

Did we just find our third finalist? Albert didn’t seem thrilled when Jeff said the jury was starting to assemble so it seem to tell us that he won’t like how Keith and Jim vote.

We heard Rick advising Jim to stay focused.
Asked who he was rooting for, Brandon said Jim.
Jeff then asked if anyone was rooting for Keith. Whitney said yes with a big smile.
No one responded when Jeff asked if Ozzy had any fans. Ozzy was on his own.
When Jim dropped out, we saw Ozzy smile.
When Ozzy won, he stared intently at the spectators.
In repsonse, we first saw Rick and Coach being emotionless and then Albert was seen grimacing.
Keith then told Ozzy: “Try and win it for us, bro.”
Jim joined in: “Go get ‘em, brother.”
Once more, Ozzy told us that he would be nice to the next person joining him but he’d beat them.

Redemption island – Day 26

Ozzy: “Being alone on Redemption is a very nice thing…I’m glad that the Te Tuna tribe is missing my skills. As far as I can tell, no one is able to go out and get fish because they have to spend a lot of their energy watching out for who is doing what, who is going where and who they are talking to. They have to watch out for the conniving nature that is the classic end game of Survivor.” A dying fish was then seen on the sand, another sign against Ozzy.

“Redemption adds a whole new twist to it. If you have the skills like I do…you can have everything set to play the end game with a passion and a ferocity that you can’t get when you have to deal with a tribe.”

We then saw Ozzy climb atop a coconut tree, an amazing helicopter shot showing this natural survivor in all his glory.

Camp

As Ozzy said, Rick wasn’t having any success catching fish.
Dawn said she wanted to eat. Cochran replied he’d be happy just eating coconuts.
Dawn then said: “I realized again this morning how frustrated I am that I jeopardized my own game and didn’t out your game plan when our group could have shook it up. So, I feel like you could reciprocate. I’d do anything to stay right now.”
Cochran told her: “You are still the number one person that I want to work with.”

Cochran: “There is something appealing about the idea of returning to Dawn and Withney. They know it’s pretty much going to have to be the act of an angel looking over them to carry them further in the game and I think that, if I could be that angel, it will probably earn me more jury votes than just blindly following Upolu would.” To Dawn, he said: “I am willing to change things up if I think it is viable.” His confessional continued: “Either way, it is going to have to be a leap of faith. I am going to have to either trust that the few promises I have received to take me further than 7th place have been sincere or if I am really 7th in line, then I have to make a big move so this is something that I have to seriously consider.”

Cochran, we know, wasn’t that angel but we will see him trying. Will it be enough to earn the jury votes? It is much more interesting that we heard him talk about jury votes. What was really noticeable was the change in the quality of Cochran’s voice when he said “or if I am really 7th in line.” That part was spliced with the first and may come from the time frame of next episode when he will again be confronted with this dilemma. Another interesting aspect is that we didn’t really see Cochran working with Dawn. Maybe Dawn returns to make that happen.

The Challenge

Fun comments:
“Brandon and Dawn trying to win this.”
Coach giving it another shot. Coach’s got something going now.”
Right after Jeff said: “Once you find that sweet spot, this gets easier”, we saw that Cochran still hadn’t found his sweet spot. The music told us that this wasn’t a challenge for him!
“Edna…almost. Got to head back.”
“Brandon, Dawn and Sophie, fighting to win immunity. Everybody else (Albert, Whitney and Rick shown) is struggling.”
“Sophie with a huge move. A very big bowl of rice.”
Sophie won immunity and Jeff announced a twist for Tribal Council.

Dawn: “Whitney and I are on the outs so we had to win this challenge for sure…This isn’t the time to give up because anything can happen.”

One thing that could happen is Dawn beating Ozzy. We know she won’t give up.

Cochran: “I was pretty disappointed with my performance today in the immunity challenge. I thought there was a chance I could excell at this one but, in the end, my lack of balance and agility came back to haunt me.” We heard Coach telling Cochran that Dawn would certainly win the jury vote if she made it to the end. Coachran replied that she would be a challenge threat! Cochran continued his confessional: “Luckily, Dawn and Withney are in such a bad position right now, they know they are the next two to go. Unfortunately, when Jeff mentioned that there will be a twist tonight at Tribal Council, my first thought was “OK, it’s going to be a double elimination so there’s always the possibility that, after we vote one of the two of them, then there will be another immunity challenge and, if one of the remaining two wins that challenge, I could be in danger. So, I’m a little bit nervous.”

Cochran showed that he knew what was coming and how it could impact him. The council would indeed show that he was in danger.

Dawn: “I had to win the challenge, there was no way around it…I feel that their camp has been so serious about this issue of trust, that Coach has this loyal following but it’s not over. The one thing about this game is that you can lay in bed and think I am going home and then the whole day changes.”

I found it interesting that when Dawn mentioned Coach’s loyal following we were shown a group shot where, although she was present (we see her legs) we don’t see Sophie.

Is she the one that will eventually break the alliance? It seemed Albert would be the one but he continues to fail.

Dawn knew that their only hope was to talk to Albert.

Whitney: “Right now, we would definitely be up for making a move. It’s just picking the right people. Brandon is such a loose canon that you don’t know what to believe. Rick? He’s not even playing the game. Edna is so far up Coach’s butt that it’s ridiculous. Albert, at least, seems like a good guy.”

Poor Rick and Edna, being called useless by someone just as useless! Whitney should get flagged for a late hit out of bounds but she is right. No one can argue in favor of Rick and Edna at this point.

With Cochran and Dawn present, Whitney told Albert that Coach would take Edna and Sophie to the end.
Albert was listening, especially when Dawn said: “We are two votes that can help someone.”

Albert: “Right now, I am at a cross-roads. I feel like my only real chance to win this game is to secure every Savaii jury vote I can get. So, I have an idea of possibly getting Edna out immediately for a couple of reasons. A: I really want to credit Cochran for what he’s done for us by moving him up the ladder so to speak and I also want to curry a little bit of extra favor with Whitney and Dawn. Now, I have buttered up three possible jury members and I have lost Edna who wasn’t going to vote for me anyway.”

Albert, despite what many viewers at home think, sees the value of what Cochran did but, at the same time, he shows his strategic limitations. We had just heard Cochran telling Dawn that he wasn’t giving her lip-service while Albert, in effect, did just that. Worse, he neglected to consider that Edna wouldn’t be the only jury vote he loses if he goes against the family. Or does he not remember how Brandon reacts when he sees a traitor? Someone that betrays Brandon’s side that is; not someone who betrays others for Brandon!

For some reason, when Albert told Whitney that Edna was useless and that they deserved to stay more than she did, the camera showed us Cochran.

Brandon pointed out to Coach that they weren’t supposed to talk to these people, not to make themselves available for voting discussions.

Albert and Cochran then had a game of checkers.
Cochran: “This is a bummer. You are about to take one of my pieces either way.”
After making sure that no one was standing behind him, Albert told Cochran that he would be targeted at 7th. He then took one of Cochran’s pieces.
Cochran: “Oh Boy! I didn’t see that. I think I’m screwed big time.”

Cochran: “Albert just confirmed my suspicions that I am going to be voted out at 7th. I am not exactly shocked but I felt that was a complete betrayal of our trust because I am the one that saved that entire tribe and, if they think that Edna is a more valuable player for them or is somebody that made more sacrifices for them, they are sorely mistaken.”

This scene is really bad for Cochran: Seeing him get beaten and say that he is screwed big time could very well be telling us that his future is limited in this game. But that is only a superficial interpretation. As he said about odds, Cochran doesn’t do checkers, he does Survivor. What did the scene tell us about the game of Survivor? Cochran actually got closer to Albert, infiltrating a new layer of Upolu which is the game he is playing. He got information from Albert which can be useful in the future. In his next confessional Cochran was going to tell us that he came to play Survivor, which told us that he wasn’t interested in winning checkers.

His comments about Edna are much more worrisome than the game of checkers but people have said that Edna isn’t valuable all the way back to the first few episodes. Only Coach sees the value of Edna. Maybe he’s like Earl, the only one that saw the value of Yau Man, but the viewers had been given ample evidence that Yau Man was valuable. Edna hasn’t shown us anything.

The game of checkers went on with Albert proposing a big move to Cochran saying: “This is if you want to gamble and if we want to take the game into our own hands.”

Cochran: “I came to play Survivor and Survivor is about big moves. I didn’t make the big jump I did just to be voted out in 7th place. I want to get further in this game and, if that means flipping back then it is something that I will consider.”

Sophie then joined Albert and Cochran in the jungle.
Albert asked about Edna’s allegience as a jury member.
Sophie answered she would vote for Coach.
Albert said they should get rid of her.

Sophie: “Albert is starting to show his true colors more and more which, maybe are similar to my true colors in that I am strategic and I want to win the game and this is our /one shot/ (note the cut in the sound as she said one shot) to make the big move because you have two free votes hanging around. Albert is trying to take control of this game and I am the swing vote. So, now I am debating to stick with Coach or go with Albert’s crazy plan. At the end of the day, it is a question of what will take me to then end.”

Finally, an interesting confessional from Sophie. She finally put herself in the end game discussion instead of just commenting on events around her. What should be made of her chances? We will have to come back to this later.

To Albert and Cochran, Sophie said she had made no promises to Edna.
Albert repeated that she brought zero to the table.

Coach told Edna that Albert was playing for jury votes.
Cochran told Albert that Coach was suspicious.

Coach: “Albert, righ now, is playing for Albert and that is a dangerous game to play out here. I see him talking to Whitney and talking to Dawn. He is either trying to come up with a last second plan or he is trying to curry jury votes and neither one is acceptable in my opinion.” Coach directly threatened Sophie, Rick and Albert, telling them: “If anyone goes against the five, it is instant death.” His confessional continued: “There are three types of motivational style: There is coddling, there is reaffirming and then there is fear. At the moment, I feel like an old mob boss. If anyone goes against the family, they are dead.”

Tribal Council

Dawn told Jeff that Upolu should use the two of them. She said people in positions 5, 6 and 7 should join them.
Whitney said Cochran was 7th.
Cochran said that he was a late comer to the Upolu group. He added he would do some maneuvering once he reached 7th.
Jeff was surprised to see that Cochran hadn’t looked ahead. “You are going to be very late to a party that won’t be interested in letting you in the door.”
Cochran said he was already making plans. He agreed with Jeff that this was a great time to make a big move.
Dawn promised her loyalty to the people she had spoken to.
Coach said he was worried: “We have some thinkers on this tribe…I am not running the show but I am always thinking in the back of my head that people have to make big moves in order to get ahead in this game so I worry, I stress, I believe, I trust. All of those emotions all day long. It drives me crazy.”
Having been caught rolling her eyes at Coach’s claim not to be leader, Whitney said: “It seems that everybody always reports back to Coach.”
Albert seemed to put his foot in his mouth when he said: “It is widely believed that Coach is the leader by the Savaii members. I definitely don’t think he is my leader or the leader of this group. He might just be a figurehead who just represents leadership or he may be pulling the right strings.”
Coach had to respond to that: “I am not the leader of this tribe but I like to get information. Information is the biggest power in this game…Will I use it when my life is in jeopardy which I feel is coming pretty soon?” <The camera showed Albert at that moment> “Yes”.

As soon as Dawn walked down the stairs, Jeff announced a second immunity challenge with a vote to follow.
We saw a few surprised look at Whitney’s reaction: “Damn it.”

When the challenge game down to Whitney, Coach and Sophie, the camera zoomed in on a nervous Cochran.
Sophie won her second immunity to the delight of her tribe and the relief of Cochran.
Whitney was voted out leaving Jeff to say: “The good news is that the 7 of you have accomplished your goal. The bad news? Nowhere left to hide. This game is about to change.”

Dawn’s last words told us that Upolu would have problems playing the end game because of their constant talk of loyalty.

The Story

It is interesting that, this late in the season, the story can still go one of four ways:
1- The Upolu 5 sticks together and we wind up with a final three that would most likely involve Coach, Sophie and Albert.
2- The Upolu 5 break up and Albert leads the move against Coach.
3- The Upolu 5 break up and Coach gets rid of Albert.
4- The Redemption Island returnee finds a way to get to the end.

Of course, the first possibility implies that we were wrong to see Cochran as our possible winner. Hearing Cochran speak against Edna in confessional wasn’t necessary and it didn’t portray him in a flattering light. It’s also troubling that, having reached Final 7, Cochran wasn’t presented as the decoy boot; the previews giving that role to Brandon. And, of course, Cochran could be screwed like the game of checkers implied. Jeff’s words at TC weren’t an endorsement of his end game.

The Characters

Ozzy: Starting with scenario #4, Ozzy has a beautiful story. However, this could be nothing more than a tribute to a great Survivalist instead of setting the stage for our Sole Survivor. Some think that the helicopter shot is meaningful but that image was too great to leave on the editing floor even if Ozzy was to lose the next challenge. Coach in Tocantins and Phillip last season had aerial shots that didn’t translate in victory. Anyway, Coach and Cochran also saw the helicopter filming them as they did their tai chi exercises. Redemption Island edits are tricky as seen last season when two relative nobodies received strong enough edits that some saw them as eventual winners when they turned out to be the returning players only.

Ozzy certainly has the passion and he did have a rough start. He embraces the Redemption Island twist like no one before him which could validate the twist. However, his personal theme, as he said it himself in episode #1, was that he had to improve his strategy. Time and again, he failed. Even his big move was greeted by an unimpressed Upolu tribe that simply didn’t buy it. In my eyes, Ozzy is showing too much confidence in his own abilities. Granted, he dominated challenges in his original season in a way never seen before but that was a long time ago. This season, he failed winning immunity when he really needed it. Let’s see him beat another player with a good edit before making a final decision on his story.

Dawn: With Cochran saying that Dawn could be a challenge threat and her confessional about not quitting, there are hints that Dawn will be the returning player. Will that lead her to a final victory? Coach understood that she would certainly win the million if she is taken to the end so she would face a huge battle once she returned to the game.

Coach: His chances of winning look really good in the first scenario. Like Jim said: “The longer that Coach has them believing that they are one tribe, the more likely it is that he wins the million dollars.” With all of Albert’s talk of making a move and Sophie’s strategic confessionals, this ending would imply that these two fail to get rid of Coach.

There are many parallels between Coach’s story this season and Rob during the last one, notably his confessional about acting like a mob boss. A win by Coach would somewhat fit the main themes we have been following: He does have a passion for this game as evidenced by his “it drives me crazy” response to Jeff. He started off poorly and would be finishing strong. As for his own theme, scenario 1 would mean that he was loyal and played for his tribe to the end.

However, if things work out perfectly for Coach and he ends up in the Final 3, it would be a stretch to say that he started poorly because it only lasted for the first 30 minutes of the premiere episode. It has been going well since then. Also, despite the parallels with Rob, we have seen odd negative moments for Coach, especially his happy little wave as Jim walked off to Redemption Island, his desire to see Christine lose the first duel, his fake hug to Stacey for example. Rob was shown always focusing on the big picture, the win, while Coach., too often, was seen celebrating little victories. Jim has been wrong so often this season that we have to doubt that he told us the true ending when he said that Coach was the likely winner.

The probable reason that Coach would lose is that we have been given hints that he won’t be able to continue making them believe they are one tribe. As he told us; more blindsides occur than alliances sticking together. There are thinkers in that tribe not only puppets and a delusional fool that followed advice from a dead ancestor. Like Coach said in his mob boss speech; if anyone goes against the family, they are dead. If he himself goes against the family, he will need witness protection!

Albert: His story consists mainly of hatching plans to improve his game and being constantly stopped by Coach. Even if he were to succeed, he seems destined to stay with Sophie and her edit overshadows his. It would be weird to see him get the votes over her when she has been presented as the smartest half of that pair while neither appears to be more liked than the other. On the other hand, viewers’ perception and players’ feelings are different things. Stephen from Tocantins could attest to that. Considering that, maybe we should keep in mind that Whitney thought Coach would bring Edna and Sophie to the end. Whitney was presented as an observer during tribal Council so maybe there is something to her observation and Sophie isn’t seen as a jury threat by her fellow players.

That being said, Albert doesn’t fit the themes of the season. He hasn’t shown any passion for the game, he started off well and things have stayed on course despite his best attempts to rock the boat. His chances of winning are in scenario #2 but then he would have to go against the family and that should mean death.

Sophie: She finally talked about more than events surrounding her, talking directly about her end game. Her challenge wins finally validate her comment that she is a strong woman but knowing that clams aren’t dangerous isn’t worth a million dollars! She will need to do more than this even if this episode made her a popular choice to win the game at this stage. The first question I have concerns her lack of presence: Did the editors hide her because they knew she’d shine in late challenges or did they hide her so that her challenge wins won’t make her our favorite. To answer that, let’s examine her story more closely.

Like Albert, her main flaw is that we have no personal connection to her. She is a player, no doubt, but who is she? Whitney knew that she was in Med school so they had to have shared personal moments. We didn’t hear any of that. Other problems comes from the themes which don’t fit her story. Her confessionals have shown no passion and she has never been in trouble.

To complete the analysis of Sophie’s story, we need to go back to Semhar’s last poem, essentially the line: "I'll never understand how men like you can cause so much damage, or even worse, how women like myself can stand it"
Some have mentioned this as “proof” that a woman wins this season but, as we look at it objectively, the poem gives an “even worse” role to the woman. What is more interesting is that we have seen examples of this in each tribe:
- Cochran caused so much damage to Savaii that he is the only one left outside of Redemption Island and we have heard that Dawn let him do it and she regretted doing so, fitting the poem perfectly.
- Albert has tried to cause damage to the Upolu family and Sophie has let him do it. It has been Coach that has stopped Albert up to now. It would be surprising to see Sophie stop Albert’s next attempt because she told us that she shares the same color, the same strategy, as Albert. If Albert and Sophie carry through scenario #2 then neither should win. Going against the family means death.

If Sophie were to win, the theme of the season would become: “Don’t ever, ever step up” which for Survivor’s future is a terrible theme.

As a funny observation, we heard someone ask Sophie how many bowls of rice she had carried to the end and her answer of three was captioned on screen as if we really needed to know. It made me think that she would receive only 3 votes if she makes it to the end.

Cochran: Inevitably, we are led back to our nerd. As one who has been seeing him as winner, I cringed when Jeff said he had betrayed his tribe but then we heard Jim telling Ozzy and Keith that they were supposed to be Final 3 which indirectly justified Cochran’s betrayal.

Cochran isn’t in the South Pacific to play checkers, he is there to play Survivor as he keeps reminding us. His passion for the game was evidenced when he knew exactly what would be the twist at Tribal Council. The thought of that twist forced Cochran back to his natural worried state: The possibility of a win by Whitney would mean his elimination. If this season tells us that it isn’t how someone starts that matters but how they finish, then Cochran is still not there yet, still has ways to go but look at the road traveled since the beginning. This has been his theme and every episode, every vote has reminded us that Cochran still has work to do to get to that good finish.

As for this episode, Coach words about information being power seemed important enough to look at the episode through them. Whitney said that everyone reported to Coach but that wasn’t what we were shown. What we saw was that everyone, everyone that mattered that is, talked to Cochran. He mostly listened and talked to us. Coach told him his worries about Brandon and Albert. Dawn told him she was ready to do anything to stay. Albert told him about his big idea to take over the game and Sophie joined in the discussion. Cochran was present when Brandon told Coach that the other Upolus weren’t supposed to be available to discuss votes with Savaii.

So looking back at Semhar’s poem, a survivor fan will understand the damage that big moves can cause and fans like big moves so maybe this season will show Semhar/us how to play.