Previously, on Survivor, after being bullied by her former alliance, Lisa jumped ship…
….Leaving Pete and Abi powerless.
Meanwhile, Lisa and Shupin were in search of a new alliance…
…but after Penner passed, Malcolm and Denise jumped on the chance, agreeing to a Final 4 pact.
Lisa: “I think he missed an opportunity.”

At the immunity challenge, Carter won, putting Pete and Abi on the chopping block.

But, at Tribal Council, it was only Abi who took a beating.
Denise: “I’ve spent much of my life with people that are helpful, they are kind, many qualities that are not a part of who Abi is.”
It only got worse for Abi when she played her idol and watched her closest ally leave this game.

This recap is a clear indication of tampering with the story. In the previous episode, we had seen Malcolm talk about the Final 4 alliance first but here it was presented as Lisa and Mike’s idea while Malcolm and Denise “jumped on the chance”. That is powerful manipulation to portray Lisa and Mike as the strategic players. “Jumped on” even suggests riding coat tails and those with short term memory loss (90% of the audience!) were being told to favor Lisa and Mike.

Also, while many didn’t agree that the last TC was unfavorable to Denise and was meant to draw sympathy towards Abi, the recap should have removed any argument. “Abi took a beating” and only Denise was shown putting her down. Jeff’s harsh words were omitted for a reason: Without them, Denise was shown as the only one giving that beating to Abi! Also, Abi’s interruptions disappeared, leaving only Denise’s trashing. This seems sufficient to eliminate Denise from contention. Viewers want to see someone nice winning but we were being told that Denise wasn’t nice at all.

The Dilemma

Day – 28

The first scene showed Mike asking Abi if she was OK.
She said people had been brutal which caused a raised eyebrow from Jonathan and a facepalm from Denise.

Denise: “Abi was sitting by the fire with Michael and, as we are overhearing it, it’s just more of the same. She’s just continues the reign of negative, grumpy Abi. Between, Malcolm, Michael, Lisa and I, we have our solid four. Abi is the one going next unless she miraculously wins immunity which I doubt, but if she does somehow have immunity, Jonathan’s made it this far, he’s a great player so next we’d probably vote out Jonathan.”

If the recap wasn’t sufficient to eliminate Denise then the editors reinforced the point: Where Mike looked sympathetic, Denise added another layer and then she turned her sights on Jonathan, a well-liked player that was part of her Kalabaw alliance. Knowing how the episode turned out, we can say that the editors didn’t so much credit Denise for eliminating Jonathan but tainted her with the blame for eliminating a fan favorite. Many must have said: No! Not Jonathan. Why not Carter?

Abi and Malcolm went to get tree mail.
Seeing Abi cry, Malcolm said he wanted to hug her last night.

Malcolm: “Last night, it was like the tribe decided to lay Abi down in the middle of the road and roll over her with a bus then back up and do it over again. She just got destroyed.” At Abi’s mention of Denise, Malcolm said: “Denise was rough” which was captioned to make sure we heard it. Malcolm’s confessional continued: “Abi is so unself-aware that’s it’s hard not to feel a little sympathy for her when she’s breaking down. So, my heart goes out to her a little bit.”

This should be the final nail in Denise’s chances to win the game when her closest ally, another fan favorite, tells the audience that we should feel sympathy for Abi while Denise was rough.

Abi had a confessional after reading Tree Mail: “I am the most unliked person on this island right now…At today’s auction, I am just going to sit tight and hold my money and hope for the right opportunity to use my money for getting ahead. They are not going to stop me now. I’m going to fight, I am a fighter, I am a Survivor!”

The Auction
Denise purchased pancakes for $500 which made Mike say: ‘That’s $1.99 at the local dinner.”
Mike got cheese and wine for $500 which surprised Malcolm since Mike doesn’t drink.
Malcolm got doughnuts for $200
Abi told Jeff she wasn’t bidding because she’d be eating soon.
Jonathan got a covered item for $100. It turned out to be fried chicken, making Jonathan smile from ear to ear!
Carter got a baked potato for $200 but he traded it in for rice and beans for everyone.
For $320, Lisa was happy to see that she bought a gigantic sandwich.
When Jeff presented “an advantage in this game” Abi immediately said: $500.
Jeff told her she could read it in camp and commended her for being in the game.
For the last item, Carter got a couple of veal shanks that he had to share with the entire tribe.

It wasn’t a very funny auction as far as Survivor goes. No one was made to look foolish even if there were comments that Denise and Mike spent too much money too soon. Everyone got something so it seems there are no hints to help us here. To show that nothing important happened, the first words we heard back in camp was Jonathan saying: “Everybody was a winner.”

Lisa (solo): “…Everybody was happy but, just as we were sharing in the joy of this experience, Penner and Abi get into this conversation which shuts us totally down…I’m sorry but it’s really hard not to laugh at some of the things she says.”

Jonathan: “The more bitter, the more obnoxious, the more toxic Abi is, the better for me. The easier it is to say: We have to get rid of her. The six of us will figure it out from there.”

The scene ended with a hug between Abi and Jonathan.

Abi also had a confessional: “Everything that they are saying, I am taking with a grain of salt. I think people are starting to feel like they need to start communicating with me somehow because they don’t know what kind of tool that I have in my hands. The tool being the item that I bought at the auction. They realize that I have an advantage in the game…This note could possibly change my game if I play my cards right. I can do whatever I want with this note, I can tell them whatever I have to for it to work in my favor. I am going to have to put fear in them and break their alliance with this power that I may have. I have a lot better chance that I had before.”

The next day started with a new confessional from Abi: “This morning, I woke up and I woke up very ambitious. I woke up with the feeling that I am not going to go out without fighting. They had a lot of problems with me being such an honest person. They asked for this: Now, it’s time for me to lie. I will outplay them. I will be creating a fantasy 4th immunity idol. So, I’ve been trying to be sneaky, plant some seeds. I’ll either go out graciously or I stay in the game as a very smart, hard working fighter. A warrior really.”

She tried to talk to Malcolm who gave us the confessional of the evening: “Abi is like having a girlfriend that won’t leave even after you’ve broken up with her. She’s bitter, she hasn’t forgiven you and you’re not getting the benefits of having a girlfriend around anymore so it’s the worst situation possible.”

Abi told Malcolm she had the 4th idol.

The Immunity Challenge

Abi had a confessional to explain her ruse: “I know I can’t use Probst as a tool at all because he needs to keep the game fair (!) but I am still going to carry on with my fake idol.”

She told everyone there were two parts to the note and would only read the part about the challenge.
Probst simply said: “OK.”

Lisa was the first one eliminated.
Carter and Penner joined Abi in the finals.

Mike told everyone that Abi couldn’t climb but to watch how good her knee was.
It was funny to see the four members of the alliance all together watching this unfold.

Everyone was rooting for Carter but Abi was flying through the structure.
I laughed out loud when she came down the pole to claim immunity. Funniest moment of the season.
Denise didn’t find it funny: “You gotta be freaking kidding me. I want to throw up.”
Jeff gave Abi the necklace and commented on her journey.

Day – 30

Malcolm: “Hell hath forzen over. Abi won immunity today. She spent $500 on an advantage and it paid off for her…I had to act all upset about like it’s the worst thing in the world but inside I just smiled because I couldn’t ask for a more convenient excuse to get a real threat in this game which is Penner.”

We saw the four gather in the woods and Malcolm saying it would be Penner.

After Denise, it’s now Malcolm’s turn to target Penner without provocation. They had voted together earlier on but that didn’t count anymore.

Lisa reacted by saying she just wasn’t cut out for this game.

Lisa: “I’m in such a huge inner conflict. I mean, I like Denise and Malcolm but I really have a heart connection with Carter and Penner. I’m going to hurt somebody I care about. I love this game…but I think I am not cut out for it.”

At first, this story line served to set Lisa’s journey but now it sounds as the reason why she will lose jury votes. It won’t be a question of being liked or not, it will be because she is so bad at this game. She learned something about herself that can help her outside the game but not in it.

In the shelter with Penner, she told him she wasn’t good at this game because she couldn’t keep the decision quiet and couldn’t lie to him.
Jonathan asked her to take a walk.
She reminded him of the F3 offer and that, after he declined someone else came to her.
Jonathan could only ask: “Am I going home?”
She said she was told to write his name. She added she didn’t want to so she hoped he could work his magic.

Jonathan (solo): “Lisa, once again, lost her mind and she confessed to me that she was in another alliance, that she is voting for me tonight and, I guess to her credit, she is going to stick by her guns. She will not be swayed. I think her guns are ridiculous. Lisa got played and that is to Denise and Malcolm’s credit. Now, my mistake was that I was playing both ends against the middle without making any commitments to anybody. That was probably my mistake: I did not choose a side.” He told Carter and Abi to vote out Denise and Abi was on board. Jonathan’s confessional continued: “People are a little weary about Malcolm because of his idol and he’s aligned tightly with Denise so we will now vote for Denise.”

Jonathan went to Mike saying: “Unfortunately for you, my brilliant, wise old chum, you put yourself in the driver’s seat and have to decide who you want to go forward with.”
Mike agreed: “The proverbial swing vote.”

Mike (solo): “Tribal Council day is a zoo. My dilemma is that I am going to make three people very happy tonight and I am going to upset three people. I am potentially going to win three jury votes and lose three jury votes at the same time. So, am I in a better group to win this game with Lisa, Denise and Malcolm or Abi, Carter and Penner. The closer it gets to the Final three, the more I realize it’s a pretty big deal. I believe strongly that I can beat Penner in the Final three.”

His confessional ended like that but since he voted to eliminate Penner then he had to say more, had to analyze other options. For one thing; a way to avoid having angry jurors is to take them to the end. Did Mike say he’d want to have Abi sitting next to him in the end? It would fit in well with the thoughts we were allowed to hear. “I believe strongly that I can beat Penner in the final three…but I know I can easily beat Abi.” And Mike would know that Abi will always be on board with eliminating Denise.

Tribal Council

Abi told Jeff it was her plan all along to get the Auction’s advantage.
Jeff turned to Denise saying the last TC was brutal on Abi.
Denise denied it by saying: “What was perceived as brutal was simply a group of people whose tolerance had reached its maximum.”
Artis shook his head.
Asked about the vibe in camp, Jonathan said that it was crazy and that lines had been drawn. “I believe Denise and Malcolm shook hands with Lisa and Skupin.”
He went on pleading his case, saying he was trustworthy and loyal.
Malcolm said he didn’t trust her enough to make an alliance.
Jonathan explained that Lisa had voted against him twice. He added that they didn’t have a shot at the million if they aligned with the two Matsings.
Malcolm didn’t want to argue with Penner or force Lisa’s hand but they did have a bond.
Lisa said she was going to hurt people she cared about.
Jonathan countered: “You vote me out tonight, you are giving a million dollars to one of these two.”
Jeff asked Lisa if this dilemma compared to any situation in her life.
She said it did but would not talk about it.
She agreed that her decision could disappoint herself.
Asked if it was difficult for him, Mike said he’d want to be friends with everyone after the game which caused Abi to roll her eyes but he wanted to play to win so there was some validity to what Penner said.

With that, Jeff sent them to the voting booth.
Denise was the first voter, getting a grimace from Abi.
Jonathan made his vote clear, yelling Denise from the booth!
Once again, Mike was the last voter shown, his dilemma lasting until the very end as we saw him fiddling with the pen.

After getting his torch snuffed, Jonathan took his time to leave but, once he was gone, Jeff said: “This game is clearly up for grabs.”
As he said this, the camera showed:

The Story

Mike and Jeff both mentionned the episode’s dilemma and it gave us an opportunity to see how the Prisonner’s Dilemma, a version of Game Theory, could have been edited into this episode’s story. In an iterative game such as Survivor where each Tribal Council can be seen as a repetition of the dilemma, it’s proven that playing “nice” has an advantage if and only if it’s accompanied by retaliation: Tit for tat. Could it be that, when Penner said the viewers would want to see nice people winning the game, we were supposed to understand it as the editors pointing to playing “nice” according to Game Theory? I’d like to think so.

We saw that Skupin and Lisa applied this strategy while Malcolm and Denise didn’t: Skupin and Lisa had played once with Penner and he had chosen not to cooperate with them. Therefore, the best move for Mike and Lisa was to “retaliate”, to betray Penner. Malcolm and Denise betrayed Penner on the first occasion, without provocation. Malcolm even said he was happy that Abi won IC to be able to betray Penner and their Final 6 deal.

So, now, with the pairs of Malcolm/Denise and Mike/Lisa having cooperated once, what is their next best move? At one point, it will be more advantageous to betray the other so how will it be presented? I wouldn’t be surprised to see one pair show a lack of cooperation first and the other profitting later when they retaliate. Since the dilemma was introduced in Mike’s story, I would expect that he, once again, should be shown getting the better result.

The Characters

Abi: It’s remarkable that, in an episode where a Survivor legend would take his final bow, Abi was the star. We didn't have to hear her strategy in such intricate details and we certainly didn’t need to hear Probst acknowledging her game THREE times (at the auction: he said she had her head in the game) at the challenge (he not only congratulated her which would be normal but he mentioned her incredible journey) and at TC were he let the jury hear him praising her. Each one, to me, sounded like a jab at Denise who told us she wanted to throw up when she saw Abi win immunity. Usually, when a “villain” is in the middle of his downward spiral, we do not hear the host’s praises. Jaime in Guatemala who had a redemption arc before leaving got only fleeting nice words when he did nice things to make amends. So there must be more to Abi’s story. Maybe we heard her talk of the 4th idol because it will come into play, it will fool someone.

Denise: For all the negativity we have seen in her story lately, we cannot forget that she once had the best story of the season. Even with Malcolm at her side, it was Denise that was the star of the pre-merge. However, this is the important act and great pre-merge stories have come to a crashing end before to let the winner’s story emerge.
We did hear once more that Denise would win hands down if they let her make it to the end so we can’t totally ignore her chances but there was a lot of manipulation done to make Denise look bad and there was very little done to prevent the viewers from thinking: “I hope it’s Denise that gets the boot, not Penner.” The only time Survivor did that to its winner was Jenna and she was up against a deaf girl.
Finally, on a more pragmatic note, Denise wasn't shown doing anything to save herself once she was put on the block. We didn’t see her talk to Mike or Lisa to insure their votes and she didn’t intervene during TC. Winners are usually shown defending themselves when they are on the block.

Lisa: The end of the journey is painful and I am not sure if it’s more painful for her or for us. She once had the potential of being the fan favorite but now? She is a bad player and she’s starting to bring the mood down more than Abi ever did. Not an easy thing to do! Lisa is losing her mind out there and we can only sit and watch…and watch…

Malcolm: I once thought that JT was too good to be true, that something would surely happen so that he’d get the boot before reaching the end. I was horribly wrong then and I may be wrong again here. This season’s golden boy is in a great position to win the game and all the notes that I have taken that make me think he doesn’t win could be turned upside down to make the case that he does win. We saw him creating the Final 4 deal, we know he is listening carefully to use his idol correctly, he was distanced from Denise’s negativity by his words to Abi at tree mail and he still has a shield in Carter, another young athlete that needs to be removed in the next 3 votes…or will it be 4?
The only thing that still makes me think that he won’t win is that it was too easy for Malcolm. Even during Matsing’s days of horror, he was never in danger and, as soon as he switched, he was adopted by the clique. Matsing’s problems were more part of Denise’s story than his. To me, the season seemed destined to an older player but maybe that’s why we heard Denise saying he was mature beyond his years.

Mike: After the Dog that Didn’t Bark and the Rise of the Phoenix, we now see the Prisonner’s Dilemma as part of Mike’s story. The problem is that we have no idea if the editors were also thinking along those lines or if it’s only the fruit of my imagination. All I can say to defend the idea is that it could have been the line of thought of editors knowing the result that Mike won.
What is undeniable though is that Mike had a great premiere, a great merge episode and, while his showing in episodes 2 to 5 was weak, he has been the central character of the game since the merge, the fulcrum, the swing vote.
He doesn’t have the biggest story but the first post merge vote put him in danger of being eliminated so, with Lisa’s help, he rallied and then he was the key vote in eliminating Kent, Artis, Pete and now Penner.
The last was a difficult decision and it underlined the dilemma that players face in this game. Most often than not, the tough decisions are shown through the eyes of the winner so this episode reinforces our opinion that Mike wins.