I'm glad to see that this party is already started. I'm sorry if i repeat anything that has been said but I like to write my thoughts without outside influences.

Previously, on Survivor; there was a majority alliance made up of Malcolm, Denise, Skupin and Lisa but cracks started to form
We see Malcolm falling in the water and both Mike and Lisa talking about eliminating him.
With Abi and Carter on the outs, Abi came up with a plan to save herself, attempting to trick everyone into thinking she had an immunity idol.
But it wasn’t her plan that saved her, it was her constant negative attitude.

At Tribal Council, Lisa made it clear who she wanted to sit next to at the end and Carter found out that nice guys finish last.

The recap once again mostly centered on Lisa and Mike and told us to expect Malcolm’s fall.

This episode should have been titled:

You can’t Beat Denise

Night 33

Abi: “I survived another tribal…”

Lisa: “Tribal Council was hard. Carter is one of the nicest guy you’d ever want to meet.” Mike was heard saying that Carter will learn and grow up from this experience before Lisa’s confessional continued: “It really doesn’t seem fair. This game isn’t fair but, if I had a choice…I’d bring somebody I could beat.”

Mike then made an interesting comment when he told Abi: “You thought you were going to be here but I think you thought you were going to be here with very different people.”

Malcolm: “Tribal Council tonight, Lisa said she would go to the end with somebody she thinks she could beat. It’s really an eye-opener that she could be thinking so strategically. Good on her but now I know what she is looking for in someone she plans on getting to the final 3 and her head’s in the game. She tipped it off and it makes her dangerous going forward.”

As with the recap, these two confessionals point to Lisa as a real player. She accepts that the game isn’t fair and Malcolm recognizes her as a threat.

Day 34

Malcolm had a confessional after the group saw Abi go into the jungle: “Abi’s… keeping the act going around camp as if she still has an idol but…there’s no way she would have held it in her bag if she had it.”

Abi: “Malcolm isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. He’s using his immunity idol…I need to make sure that the alliance that Denise and Malcolm have is destroyed because they are very dangerous together. If Denise doesn’t win the next immunity challenge, she needs to go home ASAP.”

Abi then told Lisa that she was at the bottom of the 4 person alliance: “Denise knows she cannot beat you.”

Lisa: “I don’t believe Abi for a second but I need to keep Abi close whether she stays or whether she goes to the jury. If we keep her…maybe take her to the end and that feels really yucky inside. I…need to use her for my best game plan. Right now, I have options from which to choose: I would love to be able to vote off Denise and keep Abi around but then again, I may have to vote off Abi to keep the alliance strong. I feel like I have all these scenarios in my head and I am taking control of my own destiny but, part of taking control of my own destiny is waiting for the right time to make my big move.”

The Challenge

It was between Mike and Malcolm and, in the end, Mike won reward.
Mike reminded Jeff of his last chopper ride.
He chose Malcolm, returning the favor for giving him something “that will last so much longer than pizza,” and Lisa.

Jeff noticed that Abi looked heartbroken.
She said she was, adding: “I guess my vote doesn’t mean anything.”
Mike looked long at her as she left but then it was time to hop on the helicopter!

Camp

Abi” “I was very crushed…To make matters worse, I got to go home with Denise who is a horrible person…I’m the swing vote and Mike doesn’t see that.”

Denise: “It’s going to be a fun afternoon: It’s like the first date with the kid who pulled your hair all the time in kindergarden...I want to hang myself, gouge my eyes out…”

This scene was a complete waste of time, it only served to show that Denise missed an opportunity to improve her social game. I guess she thinks Abi’s vote means nothing. Wait…where did we hear that before?!

The Reward

Malcolm: “…We had pizza, soft drinks and cookies. Michael Skupin doesn’t eat sugar in real life…he acted like a drunk chick in a bar! All of a sudden, Skupin is fun to be around. Who knew he had that side of him?”

Mike: “I haven’t had a soft drink in 30 years and I had 3 or 4 of them, I can’t remember; they were good.”

Malcolm: “The guys finally spotted a shadow in the water. It turns out we aren’t going to look at them from the boat…You are actually going to put me in the water with the world’s biggest fish?”

Lisa: “We dive in…and, out of the blue…this humongous whale shark!”

Malcolm: “It was awe inspiring. That fish was massive.”

Mike: “It’s so intimidating because, you think that, at any second, he’s going to turn on you and eat you.”

Malcolm: “A whale shark head-butted Michael Skupin! It’s the funniest thing I’ve seen in my life and my mind has become so calculating after a month and a half in this game that I am thinking: Great! One less competitor! I have a game to play: I have been the driving force in the last few votes, I need to keep it that way.”

He offered a Final 3 deal to Lisa and Mike, saying they’d have to get rid of Denise. “Nobody beats Denise” he said.
Lisa pointed out that Denise had been to every Tribal Council.
Malcolm added that she works harder than anyone and hasn’t betrayed anyone.

Malcolm (solo): “Denise and I have been tight since day 1 but, in my mind, my best chance to be in the Final 3 and win the Final 3 is to be next to Lisa and Skupin. So, I made them give me their word on Final 3.”

Mike said that Malcolm had never lied to him and that they couldn’t be like Penner and refuse the offer.

Mike: “Malcolm, at this point, would be the best person to form an alliance with because he is the most dangerous to win individual immunity. If he wins, he has more power on who goes to the final 3.”

Lisa said she like to be stress free so they shook on it.

Lisa: “Skupin’s really on board with this and I didn’t have the chance to knock some sense into him so I said I loved it, it made all the sense in the world to be us three to the end and if it is the best way for me to go; great, I made the deal. If it’s not, I’ll make another deal.”

Maybe this was the best scene of the season. It was a fun reward and they made it fun to watch also. Even at this late stage of the game, we got some personal insight into Mike, learning a bit more about him and getting a laugh at the same time. It’s a good sign to see Mike being fleshed out a little more.
As for the game, we also learned a lot. First and foremost, the theme of the “Unbeatable Denise” surfaced once again. Hearing Malcolm say he wanted to get rid of her gives Denise an excuse if she votes against him at F4 so that’s encouraging for those that see Denise as a winner.
On the other hand, we heard that one of her selling points to the jury is that she hasn’t betrayed anyone so that has to make us wonder how the jury will react if she betrays Malcolm.
Listening to Mike’s confessional, he seemed to say that the alliance with Malcolm was only meant as a way to get to the end if Malcolm wins F4 immunity but Lisa’s confessional twisted it around to mean that Mike was on board with keeping Malcolm no matter what happens. That would make Mike an idiot! In the end, the scene showed that Lisa was the real player, the one thinking about the options and the deals yet to be made.

Day 36

Denise: “This morning, I got up and, as soon as I moved…it was like my neck was on fire…I don’t know if I am having an allergic reaction to something that bit me…I’m telling myself to suck it up; you have three days left!”

Lisa and Mike prayed for Denise’s health.

Abi: “I feel bad for Denise…but what scares me most is Denise winning immunity.”
The grimace that we saw her make wasn’t meant to endear her to us.

What was the message of this scene? First, we see that nothing can stop Denise. It certainly made her look tough. I think that the prayer scene was more important though as it clearly showed that Lisa and Mike were better sports than Abi. They prayed for a rival’s health instead of hoping for an opportunity to advance in the game. In a way, it even balanced out their prayer for victory in a challenge showing that they weren’t selfish.

The Immunity Challenge

Denise told Jeff she had been bitten.
Jeff told Abi it was an opening.
(Too much game talk, not enough zingers. I was hoping for something witty like when Heidi was bitten by a spider but Probst has lost it.)

I noted with vivid interest these two comments by Jeff:
“A huge setback for Malcolm. He was right there at the end…”
“Denise thinks she has it. Denise is very close but something is not right…One piece (vote?) can cost you a million bucks.”
Despite Malcolm’s comeback in this challenge, these two lines sounded like huge hints about the outcome of the season

When he handed Malcolm the necklace, Jeff noted that with it and the immunity idol, he had huge powers for the next TC.

Denise: “Knowing that Malcolm won and not Abi was a huge relief. Tonight is a slam dunk: There’s no other name that I am going to be writing down than Abi. The torture of dealing with her will be done.”

This confessional spot is more often reserved to the person that gets the boot instead of the decoy boot. It’s usually an ironic confessional that sets up the player’s upcoming blindside. The irony here could only be that Denise’s torture isn’t over. She will have to deal with Abi-the-juror so maybe that’s what was set up. Will it be the one vote that will cost Denise the million?

Camp

The fire was hot so Mike got injured!
This time, it was just a little spark.

Abi: “I lost today to Malcolm…I need Skupin and Lisa to vote with me against Denise.”

She told a quiet Mike that she was his best chance at winning this game.

Mike (solo): “You’d think it would be an easy decision tonight; it’s just not because everything matters so much when you get down to the end game like this. You have to consider every scenario if you want to come out on top.” Finally, Mike told Abi that she made a lot of sense and he’d talk to Lisa. Mike’s confessional continued: “Abi hasn’t done anything likable at all in a game where you want to be liked by everyone but, hanging out with Abi for the next three days would definitely be worth the million dollars.”

Mike joined Lisa in the shelter and told her that Abi proposed a Final 3 deal to them which surprised Lisa.
Lisa wanted them to consider voting off Denise.

While this was going on, Denise was asking Malcolm if he’d consider giving her the idol.
Malcolm said they wouldn’t keep Abi.

Malcolm: “…I have no intention of giving Denise the immunity idol; she’s safe…My mom is going to get a little something to put on her shelf.”

Back in the shelter, Mike pointed out that Denise could help them beat Malcolm at F4 immunity.

Lisa: “We may need Denise to beat Malcolm… I want to go to the end with Abi, someone that would be easier to beat but Malcolm won the immunity necklace today and he is getting more and more dangerous by the day. If he continues to win immunity he’ll win the whole game so we need all available manpower to defeat Malcolm and Abi hasn’t done anything so we may need Denise in there to knock Malcolm out of there. Since my brother came out here, he has recalibrated me and tonight’s decision for me is purely based on strategy. You have to play out all the different scenarios and see which trade-off will cost me the most and which trade-off will reward me the most and then hoping that I guess right.”

Tribal Council

Lisa told Jeff that Abi played Survivor and didn’t go down without a fight.
Abi told Jeff that her back was against the wall.
Jeff told her she was detested and laughed at and that she was just not nice which, to Jeff meant she might be good to take to the end.
Denise said Abi was perfect to take to the end because she didn’t outplay, outwit and outlast.
Jeff said she had outwitted, outplayed and outlasted 13 people in the game.
Denise countered that there was some luck to that because Tandang never had to go to tribal council.
This reply angered Lisa who said that Tandang wasn’t lucky, they were strong.
Denise tried to correct what she said by agreeing with Lisa but it still left the impression of foot in mouth.
Malcolm said he was considering who he could beat.
Abi interrupted to say that they could not beat Denise. She added that Lisa and Skupin were not winning.
Mike tried to tell Jeff what he thought about that but Abi interrupted him, saying he was an idiot. She then called him a moron.
Mike simply said that was Abi’s way of communicating.
Abi added: “He thinks he’s going to win a million dollars in the end and he’s not.”
Lisa said she would take Abi to the end.
Abi told Jeff she just wanted to make it to Final 3.
Jeff said people had won that way.
Malcolm agreed: “If you take Abi because you think she is a goat, she won’t go down without a fight.”
Abi agreed she was a loudmouth but that she was playing for a million dollars contrary to Denise who was there to make friends.
Denise correected her saying she was indeed there for the million.

After snuffing Abi’s torch, Jeff looked at the F4 and commented that we were down to 2 Tandangs and 2 Matsings.
When the four walked away, we saw Mike doing a happy dance and heard Lisa laughing.

The Story

The story of a Matsing player winning the game is right there for everyone to see and, despite our impressions that editors love misdirections and irony, the story in Survivor has often been straightforward. There was very little done to hide that Tom, Yul, Earl, JT and Rob would win except our own penchant for mystery.
So: Malcolm or Denise? Malcolm has always looked like the nice guy who falls short and even if he was the best player this season, he will probably wind up as the last juror. If Malcolm wins F4 immunity, he wins even if he thinks Denise would beat him.

So Denise wins. It certainly has been the prima-facie evidence presented in the 4th episode by Russell. That story was corroborated by Malcolm during that same TC and it was repeated by Malcolm, Lisa and Abi in this episode. She would be a deserving winner, having attended every Tribal Council of the season. Like Abi said, she is good with words and her story is easy enough to tell that she may not have to convince the jury. May as well say she’ll win 8-0 even if that means she’d get Abi’s vote!

Then what do we make of all those carefully crafted confessionals by both Lisa and Mike? They were the ones chosen to tell us about their strategy while Denise was more often than not ignored before crucial TC votes. It could be explained by saying those confessionals were shown to tell us where Lisa and Mike failed, where they made their crucial mistakes. When we heard Mike and Lisa say that they would need Denise to beat Malcolm at Final 4, it felt as if they were forgetting the credit Denise would receive for winning that challenge. Wouldn’t it have been more appropriate to rely on each other, to say that they’ll need to win that Final Immunity themselves in order to be considered deserving winners? It would be quite ironic to see either Mike or Lisa win final immunity but have no option but to keep Denise. The message would be: If only they had kept Abi!

I am going to take the opposite view though and say that we heard those thoughts because they were important. Lisa and Mike have been the key players in the game since the merge and it was their strategy that we followed. So much that it sounded weird when Malcolm said he had been the driving force behind the last few votes. He may have gotten what he wanted but it was only because Lisa and Mike sided with him after carefully considering the alternatives. Denise may look unbeatable in front of the jury but we have seen her twice now make mistakes during councils. First, arguing with Abi and now implying that Tandang had been lucky.

Also, there was the prayer shown after Denise was bitten by an animal which made me go back to what Denise had said about prayers: “I’m respectful but it’s just not my gig. I don’t pray for anything. Anything that’s going to get me to the end of the game, it’s going to be me.” The implication here was clear: Denise needed that prayer so she didn’t get to the end of the game by herself.

So Denise loses! To me that would mean the editors did serve us some irony and some misdirections and this season would still have some interest.

A Tandang wins but which one?

I had been on board of Lisa’s win early on, saying she fit the themes much better than Denise, until I thought that Mike was the Dog that Didn’t Bark and that the story was edited as the Return of the Phoenix but I may have gone overboard with that story! Mike could be the journey player instead of Lisa and his Journey, spanning a decade, was to get back on the adventure that he so clearly loved. His Journey would have ended with his son’s visit when, finally, they could say they had done it together. That visit was very important to Mike as we heard when he chose Malcolm for this reward so it could have been his “victory”.

Last week, I wrote: “To win, Lisa would need to play with her head without forgetting about her heart but that’s what has caused her so many problems.” She did exactly that in this episode, always looking for her best options and analyzing all the scenarios. Her story could have been edited in opposition to Mike’s: Where the family visit ended his journey, it got Lisa going on the path to victory. Once more, we heard her saying that her brother’s visit helped her a lot and there’d be nothing more Jeff would like to say that those sappy moments that many fans abhor, are really important. The reunion show would already be scripted and it would center on the importance of family which would tie into the season.

Abi said that Denise was good with words but Lisa showed she is very good at making her point and that, contrary to Denise, her point carries weight with the jury. Lisa’s roller coaster ride of emotions probably cost her many fans along the way but seeing her win would make for one of the most complete stories in the series history. The calculating player would still have shown torrents of emotions and the message would be clear: You can show emotions, be a nice person but still scheme and make big moves because it is a game.

Of course, my (virtual) money has been placed on Mike a long time ago so I’m still looking for his story to end with victory even if I think it’s unlikely now. One of the few players to receive personal development during the merge scene, we got to know him a little more in this late episode which should be a good sign but is it enough?

His confessional about the importance of the decisions this late in the game gives hope that he will fare better in answering questions than he did replying to Abi’s attacks in this last TC. His happy dance after the council could have been shown to prepare us for his celebration after Jeff reads the vote but I think, like Colby, he will be just as happy to see his partner win.