The recap first reminded us of Malcolm and Denise’s story: A pair from the beginning, Denise and Malcolm were the only members of Matsing remaining.
<We heard Denise say that Malcolm may be young but that he is wise.>
A change in the game split them up.
Malcolm, with his idol, was sent to Tandang, winning challenges after challenges…
While Denise had yet to taste victory with Kalabaw.

Then we had Mike and RC’s troubles in Tandang:
The winning streak came to an end when Skupin and RC convinced their tribe to forfeit the victory for the rest of Kalabaw’s rice.
<We heard Mike saying: “From a strategic point of view, let’s take their food and go.”
We also saw Artis’ sour reaction.>
Back at camp, Artis, Pete and Abi were all but satisfied…
<Abi is heard saying it was the dumbest moments on survivor>
…villifying Skupin and RC for giving up reward.

At the reward challenge, Malcolm singlehandedly caught the victory for Tandang while Katie continued to be a liability.
Jeff Kent had other plans, targeting his former new ally Penner and his idol.
<Kent tells us he may need Jonathan to go further in the game.>
At Tribal Council, Kent ditched his plans and Katie to keep the tribe strong.

This recap reduced Kalabaw to being only Denise’s new surroundings. They weren’t worth mentioning before they had to go to Tribal Council again. In fact, the recap reduced the season to the obstacles faced by Malcolm, Denise, Mike and RC. One of that foursome wouldn’t survive the night but for the other 3, the future looks much more promising.

It Just Takes Two

Kalabaw – Night 16

Denise: “Coming back from the 6th Tribal Council in a row, I’m just glad I’m back but it’s like déjà vu. It’s one after the other. Am I cursed?”

Jonathan then talked about Katie’s vote against him. Kent tried to explain but Jonathan wasn’t convinced.

Kent first told us about the situation: “Tribal tonight was chaotic. I was about to let Penner go but I think Penner could help me out. I hope I made the right choice. We’re two guys taking shots at each other but there will come a time and a place where I will have to get to him before he gets to me.”

Jonathan had a confessional also: “I think Jeff and I have built a trust between each other but I was really surprised that Katie wrote my name. It shouldn’t have been. I forget that other people are lying. It’s always my problem. It’s a wake-up call. Do I get to keep my eyes and ears open as we move forward? Of course. It would be stupid not to.”

Tandang – Day 17

Mike told his tribe that day 17 was the day he fell in the fire during Australia.
Malcolm joked that he barely made it this far this time.

Mike: “I fell in the fire this far in the game 24 seasons ago so I no longer have an advantage. It’s all new territory for all of us.”

This, I think, is the key quote to understanding the story.

Just then, Artis spotted the catamaran.

Lisa: “We were just lying around thinking it was going to be a long day when all of a sudden we saw this boat and we thought: He’s going to come in the cove, no he’s not, he’s coming in: OH! My God!. Then we heard the best news we’ve had since day 1…When you only have 10 minutes to gather up everything you have, everything is like gold, making sure I don’t have socks hanging on a line somewhere or shoes hidden underneath the raft somewhere, that’s priority one.”

Malcolm had a confessional while packing his bag: “I buried my idol the first day I got here now I have 10 minutes to dig it up again.”

Kalabaw

Jonathan: “It’s a new lifeline for all of us. There’s 4 of us, 7 of them so we’re hoping for some dissension over there. We can take one or two people to our side, use them for a while and then cut them off if we can.”

Denise: “Kalabaw, we are going to stay 4 strong. We need two to shift that balance and have majority. My plan is to stick with the alliance that I have with Kalabaw but, at the same time, I truly would like to go back to my original alliance with Malcolm.”

During the unloading of the boat, I noticed RC picking the immunity idol...

...and then Skupin had it when he went to embrace Jonathan, the first two to greet each other.

Knowing what happened to RC, did they show this to hint that she should have kept it instead of giving it (and her story) to Skupin? And what is the significance of showing Skupin and Mike hugging first if they do not align sooner or later? Especially considering the confessional that came immediately after

Kent: “I believe that a veteran player shouldn’t be winning this game. Penner has always been my priority since day 1 and now that I am on a team with Penner and Skupin, I have two priorities. It was a good introduction. I don’t think anyone knows who I am so that’s a good thing. As long as we don’t talk about baseball, maybe I’m safe.”

Peter: “The feast was amazing. There was more food than you could ever want. The wine was awesome. The tribe’s first intention when we landed on this island was to be Tandang strong but that was impossible because RC is someone that would never let that happen and Skupin doesn’t have a brain of his own. He does what RC tells him to do.”

Mike’s confessional reminded us that Pete was the cause of dissension, not the other way around: “I never made the merge before. They merged in Australia, the day after I was medevaced so this is kinda cool and merging with numbers? Even better. I noticed Pete and Abi, the power alliance in our tribe, being a little quiet. They haven’t had alliegience in weeks to RC and I so we’re really free agents. Being free agents means you get to choose your team. It just takes two.”

Doesn’t this confessional contradict Pete’s assesment completely? It certainly seems that Skupin has a brain. I also noted that the merge feast was the occasion for the viewers to hear about only 2 players’ personal life: Kent and Skupin’s.

Abi, RC and Lisa sat together, RC saying that she thought Denise would talk to her.
Abi suggested that RC should be a spy to get information.
RC countered that they weren’t one big happy family which seemed to frustrate Lisa a lot because we saw her bowing her head when RC said that.

Merged Tribe – Day 17

Lisa: “On the merged beach, the guys were working on the shelter so I thought I’d hang everyone’s clothes out and give them some sun so we don’t sleep with wet clothes. Then I picked up Malcolm’s bag…I was looking in there and I felt something. I discovered he had the hidden immunity idol in his bag, which totally shocked me.”

Malcolm and Denise quickly noticed.

Lisa wasn’t dressed the same way while she was hanging the clothes as when she was giving her confessional. She had a dress while hanging the clothes but pants when talking to Malcolm and giving her confessional.

Maybe she changed before Malcolm whisked her away but he must have acted quickly. Her hair changed also in each scene (Loose when she first hangs the clothes, in a bun on top while hanging the last ones, So, it’s quite probable that the camera crew missed the shot when she found the idol and had to recreate the scene from another occasion when Lisa takes care of the clothes.

Malcolm: “I was going to change clothes and hide the idol but I thought one hour would be a safe amount of time to assume people would be eating, drinking and getting to know each other. Apparently, the estrogen kicked in and we had to have our clothes cleaned. Now, I have to pin down good ole Lisa who, I think, from the goodness of her heart, tried to dry my clothes. I get her alone and don’t say a word, I just looked at her.”

Lisa did confess immediately to finding the idol. She promised not to tell anybody while Malcolm promised his “new momma” a Final 3 deal with Denise.

Malcom’s confessional continued: “Alleluia! The church lady found it who hopefully, has a heart. At the same time, I’m locked into an involuntary alliance with Lisa and Denise, the two people I don’t have confidence I could beat in the Final 3 just because they are nice but…”

Lisa had a confessional of her own: “Malcolm promised a Final 3 with me and Denise. That’s really nice but you do have to take it with a grain of salt. I’m not the only actor on this island! I could be being played.”

Having both players give their point of view underlines the importance of the scene and of the characters. The scene ended with both laughing but we suspect that Final 3 won’t make it to the end and Lisa certainly came out of it looking more aware of the situation than Malcolm

Day 18
We never heard a discussion about the tribe’s name.

Lisa had a confessional after a nice scene with Jonathan: “Penner is aware of my past as a child star but we didn’t talk strategy and, if we weren’t on this island, we would have a really great time over lunch, just talking about each other’s lives. If you have that kind of connection, it’s valuable especially if you do wind up aligned together further down the road.”

Does anyone think Lisa may have warned Penner before TC, letting him know to use his idol? It would be strange since she did vote against him but maybe it was a way to hide their future alliance.

Jonathan: “Lisa had been on “Facts of Life” but now, as with many, many former actors, you get older and you do other things with your life. Lisa is a cool lady. She could actually go pretty far as an under-the-radar, non-threatening person who could find herself sitting in the Final 3. I believe that.”

Jonathan promised not to blow her cover.

Jonathan’s POV is always important on Survivor so we should say with confidence that Lisa will make the Final 3.

Jonathan then talked to Skupin about the dangers of being a returning player.

Jonathan: “I am trying to find fissures in this yellow tribe and Skupin seems like a cool guy so I got to help him feel as comfortable as he can about slitting the throats of the people he spent 17 days with.”

Jonathan offered 4 loyal people but we now know he couldn’t deliver.

Mike, after receiving a nice helicopter shot, talked it over with RC asking her how she felt about realignement.
RC only gave him a 50-50 which sounded like the wrong answer and could be the reason Mike didn’t stick with RC in the end.
Mike told her he couldn’t trust Tandang.

RC in confessional: “There are a lot of dynamics right now. Me and Mike are solid but we would like to feel more secure. The old Tandang tribe made it obvious about me and Mike. They ostracised us both for 17 days. So, Jonathan corrals his threesome and I have Mike obviously on my side, so that’s 6 so why wouldn’t we do something? If we have a chance to go somewhere else, why not?”

Mike told her why not: “We need to take baby steps before we can take giant steps.”

Back in camp, Kent was back to his idea of going after veterans, Penner first.
Pete, Malcolm, Artis and Abi were there to listen.

Kent: “I know Penner’s got the idol, nobody else knows for sure but I know and I’ll join any game to get Penner out before I get out.”

The group agreed to split the votes 4-4 between Penner and RC.

Malcolm: “The little clique inside of Tandang is operating under the assumption that Penner has an idol but we don’t have the votes within our own tribe to split the votes and get rid of him so we have to pull in Jeff, Carter and Denise. We would split the votes between Penner and RC. If Penner has an idol, he’ll have to play it to save himself and RC goes home but, if not, we revote and get rid of Penner right now. The only wrinkle is if the Kalabaw; Jeff, Carter and hum, Denise, are going to go along with this, go along with what they say they will.”

Being the one to express the nasty ones’ plan is terrible for Malcolm. His story is that of the nice guy that wins challenges and goes to the end hoping that his social game will enable him to win over two very nice persons yet now, he is tainted with RC’s blood. This ended his chances, storywise, to win the game. At least Denise was nowhere to be seen during this scene.

The Challenge

Does anyone think that Abi lied about her weight?!

Skupin was the first to fall out, followed by Pete and Penner who got some ribbing from Jeff like in the good old days.
Lisa and Malcolm soon followed.
Abi let go immediately after RC had dropped her bucket so Denise won immunity for the women.
Carter eventually outlasted Artis and Kent.
For Denise it was her first immunity as Malcolm noted

Artis: “I’m happy that Penner and RC didn’t come close to winning immunity because we are going to split the votes between Penner and RC. If Penner plays the idol, RC goes home. If Penner doesn’t play the idol, he goes home with it.”

RC: “It’s been a good day so far. No, I didn’t win immunity but we got this core 6 in place right now. Me and Mike are solid and we are definitely with Kalabaw. With us 6. we are in the majority.”

Mike had a confessional that looked back to his whole time on Survivor and clearly contrasted with RC’s carefree attitude: “I have never felt threatened before and tonight, returning players are a major threat. My reputation is pretty competitive. My reputation isn’t being loyal to a tribe that hasn’t been loyal to me. There isn’t anybody who think that I would go down without a fight.”

These words and the epsiode’s outcome tell us that the themes of fighting back outlined by RC really applied to her companion, Mike.

He then had a talk with Jeff, the leader of Kalabaw: “Pete, Abi and Artis cannot control this game. They are too rude. I just hate them.”
He offered to go with Kalabaw’s 4 but Kent was still obsessed about Penner outlasting him.
Mike then said he’d go with Jeff.

Mike: “It just takes two people from Tandang to realign with the Kalabaw tribe then they would be 6 strong. Unless God himself appears live before me and speaks to me, I cannot follow Pete, Artis and Abi as long as I have some assurance that Jeff and Carter aren’t going to switch over to the old Tandang tribe. Because if RC and I go this way while Jeff and Carter go this way then, what happened? Nothing got gained.”

This and the baby steps strategy explain Mike’s vote against Penner. With Carter and Jeff indeed going with Tandang, it would have been foolish to flip.

Jeff and Carter talked it over and they realized that going with the yellow tribe against Penner would put them at the bottom yet they chose to go that way.

Jonathan after pledging loyalty again to Kalabaw, had a confessional: “If the people that I believe are going to vote with me are really not going to vote with me, if all of this has been smoke, then I’m a terrible judge of character and I don’t really deserve to stay in the game. I do believe that Skupin, RC, Denise, Carter and Jeff are going to vote with me. They all mean it; I believe they do.”

Once more, Jonathan forgot that people could be lying. Jonathan is a terrible judge of character because Kent and Carter were then shown telling Pete they were still on.

Kent: “I’m at a cross roads. I’m either going with veterans players, people I don’t want to win this game, trying to ride them out, or I’m going to go with the Tandang tribe and vote out Penner but then I’m at the bottom. If you treat baseball with disrespect, you are going to get bit in the ass and I know that if you treat this game with disrespect you’re going to get bit in the ass too so, with all humbleness, I say that the decision on who goes home tonight is going to be heavily based on which way I go and who I carry over to the other side. I got to protect myself because whatever move I make, it’s not going to sit well with either tribe.”

Unfortunately for Kent, the sun came down while he talked about his crossroads, symbolyzing the end of his game.

Tribal Council

First Jeff noted the history made by Tandang and by Denise.
Denise was happy to survive one more time
Skupin said the fractures in Tandang were natural but that they still pulled off the wins.
RC said it got pretty bad but that families fight sometimes.
Abi said she had been close to RC until the betrayal.
RC said she still didn’t know how she betrayed Abi.
Abi mentioned the idol clue.
Peter smiled when they accused each other.
Asked if this fight could cause people to flip to Kalabaw, Lisa mentioned that they would simply be voted off at the end by Kalabaw.
Kent mentioned that the 5th position in Kalabaw is better than 6th or 7th on Tandang.
Lisa countered that you’re weaker after flipping because you’ve shown you can’t be trusted.
Pete said that players usually don’t like returning players.
Lisa said she was concerned by Denise and Malcolm’s alliance and that they too could jump over and avoid being the dog that’s kicked to the side of the road.
Asked about the idol, Pete said he thought Matsing’s idol was gone. He added he felt he had a target on his back.
Kent told Jeff that they were still scrambling because they didn’t know exactly who was going home.

Not taking any chances, Penner played his idol. It wasn’t wasted:

Abi voted: Penner
Lisa: Penner
RC: Pete
Artis: RC
Malcolm: Penner
Penner: Pete
Pete: RC
Skupin: Penner
Denise: Penner
Carter: RC
Kent: RC

I wrote down the votes as they were revealed at the end of the show because the pattern is fascinating.

Abi and Pete shared a smile as RC walked away.
Jeff sent them back to camp with a warning: “Three people got votes so it would appear that it is anybody’s game.”

The Story

It takes two, Skupin said and this season has really focused on the pairs:

The first one, outlined in the recap, is Macolm and Denise. Their story dominated the premerge and, while Denise’s immunity win still kept her in the viewers’ eyes, they faded in the background after the merge.
Tandang’s power alliance of Abi and Pete exchanged smiles at the result of the latest TC. They think they’ve gained control but this could be their last occasion to rejoice.
Then we have Carter and Kent who thought were in control but are now at the bottom of the Tandang totem pole just because of their fixation on Penner.
The next known pair was RC and Skupin and while the vote broke the pair, I believe it was broken the moment RC said she was 50-50 on flipping. Skupin couldn’t stand the idea of staying with Tandang so he ditched his partner and found a new pair. It wasn’t shown like so many other things about Skupin’s story but the vote pattern showed us exactly who is his new ally: Lisa. These two hopped on with Denise and Malcolm and managed to stay hidden within the split vote strategy, because of the split vote strategy. Can an alliance of four remain hidden long enough to gain control of the game? To answer this, we have to look at the story of the season:

The Rise of the Phoenix

Mike had a key quote at the beginning of the episode: “I fell in the fire this far in the game 24 seasons ago.” I believe this explains the editing choices made during the premerge and tells us the outcome of the season. In Australia, Mike had a tremendous premerge story, so good in fact that “Filipino Mike” could never top it so the editors didn’t even try, hiding him instead.

This way we can read Mike’s story as if it ended in the ashes of that fire on the banks of the Herbert river only to rise again on the same day, 24 seasons later. Mike is being portrayed as the Phoenix, the mythical bird, and he has now returned to life after falling in the fire. (We have seen quite often an eagle fly by during the season and that’s the link, the hint to Mike’s story.)

Mike’s strategy is to play with one partner: It just takes two. However, RC disappointed him when she was uncertain about the course of action. All she considered was going to Kalabaw but that would have put Mike and her at the bottom of their pecking order. We also saw that Lisa was disappointed with RC when she continued the fight with Abi: “We aren’t one big happy family.” Mike needed a partner, Lisa was worried about Malcolm’s offer so they probably agreed to team up. That’s what their votes told us. We will need to see how it’s explained down the road but I believe that, out of all the pairs that have been revealed, the most important one is being hidden…for a very good reason.

The Characters

Artis: This sour man is unpaired , editing wise, even if we know he is close to Pete and Abi.

Jonathan: His first “Punch” was only a jab: His play of the idol saved him for now but it has once more isolated him. The lone wolf is the ultimate “Free Agent” and which way he goes will decide the game…at least the play of the game because we have a pretty good idea that he won’t go with Kent or Pete’s sides. Jonathan can only find salvation, at least temporarily, by aligning with four of the five that voted against him this time! Another fascinating aspect of the last vote.

Pete and Abi: The rude pair should get what is coming to them shortly. I thought RC would outlast them but her story was transferred to Mike instead. The only question I have is whether this pair goes before or after the other failed pair:

Carter and Kent: They completely miscalculated because of their fixation on Penner. They could have been in charge of the alliance of 6 with RC, Skupin, Penner and Denise but they forgot two important factors: Denise wasn’t going in an alliance without Malcolm while Lisa has more strategic importance than they thought. The whole story tells us that Penner will get Kent first. Appropriately, Kent now has 2 strikes against him (2 TCs where he wanted Penner out but failed) so he should be punched out on his next swing of the bat.

Malcolm and Denise: Malcolm’s story was gravely hurt this week because of his close association with Pete. It would have been much better for him if the editors hadn’t picked him to tell the audience about the plan to boot either Penner or RC. The plot turned RC, a likable player, into a victim and winners are never shown booting “Victims”. They are always shown booting “Dumb Players” or “Villains”. Can Denise survive without her partner? Of course she could and has for 2 important rounds in Kalabaw but, editing-wise, she is linked to him so her story should fall short. It will be a great, an historic journey but it won’t give her the title of Sole Survivor even if we have heard that she’d be unbeatable in the Final Vote.

Lisa and Mike: This is the winning pair! Lisa had a tremendous episode and her interventions at TC show that she is a force to reckon with as far as the game’s strategy is involved. I think Penner will dearly regret not talking about strategy with her, She is also very well liked so she has it all as far as jury appeal is concerned. I’d certainly declare her the winner except for the manipulation we have observed in her partner’s edit. Her story is very straightforward, the only hidden aspect being her “church lady” character. Malcolm mentioned it but we haven’t heard her talk about religion.

The editors manipulated Mike’s story so much that it caught our eye before the merge, before we fully realized what angle they were using. The “Dog that Didn’t Bark” may have been used as a wink to Tina’s story but that was only a side effect. To have waited to show Mike until the day of his “rebirth” reveals a long term plan that can only lead him to victory. Another funny side of it is that, by his own admission, Mike is on a level playing field now with the rookies. He’s “lost” his veteran status that put such a huge target on returning players’ back. Now, can he convince Kent of this? I have to believe he does because Mike will Win Survivor: Philippines.