So happy to read this, Michel! I will comment along with you.

I also felt that the 2 people that were chosen to have confessionals were all because their confessionals were in sync with their tribes. Peter spoke of trying to hide how smart he was, Debbie said that puzzles laid down for her like lovers. Scot noted how he did what nobody else wanted to do in the NBA, he shoved and pushed people to the ground, and he was good at it, while Jason will do whatever he has to do to get that paycheck. Nick was very self aware, saying he's had it easier in life because of his looks, and Anna uses her virtues to help her get what she wants. All excellent reflections of the way they were divided.

For me, I felt that the 3 other characters got confessionals for just that reason, they will be the characters of the season. Caleb, the BB star, cowboy, country boy, Tai, the Vietnamese born gardener and lover of all creatures, and Joe, the 71 year old brawny brain. I think that the majority of them will have an impact on the season, especially after watching the first episode.

Regarding the 3 zoom in shots when Jiffy stated, 39 days, 18 players, 1 left to claim the million dollar prize....we first saw Scot and Jason, then we saw Neal alone, but it was when they said left to claim the million dollar prize~ I had a pause at first, that he could be the winner? But, on retrospect, after seeing the premiere in it's entirety, I did wonder if they showed him then as he's already a millionaire? It crossed my mind. Then we saw the beauty's, Nick, Michele, and Tai.

I will add here that Scot and Jason scare me....so scary, and when I think of all the physical challenges they have, it's frightening. Jason didn't give me Chris vibes, but, now that you mention it, I can see why you say that. Chris was my absolute favorite winner.

As you note, I got that there will be conflicts as well. I got that there will be one between Peter and Debbie, especially how his confessional segued into hers....stupid people, think they know everything, then hers. I also felt that Scot and Nick will go head to head at some point, (run Nick, run!), and clearly, Neal and Cydney. I also noticed that when Tai had his first confessional regarding saving the chickens and lover of all creatures, then we immediately saw Scot grab the loose chicken and it appeared to me as if he wrung it's neck, so contrasting to how Tai treated the chicken...two extremely opposite ways to handle the chicken. Whose approach will outlast this season?

I noted that also regarding Cydney's first confessional, when she wasn't doing any of the work on the raft. I also loved Jason's confessional too and was happy to hear he can be a girly daddy!

Alecia's confessional felt very shallow, all about her adventures, if she did those she can do this...?

While Jenny didn't get a confessional, she was seen as socially organizing the group, I thought. A good screen presence.

So funny when they were going around telling everyone what they did and Alecia said, real estate, condos and apts. I wished they would have shown us the reactions when Jason told them what he did...I have to wonder if he told them he was indeed a bounty hunter?

Cutting to the Brains beach with the melodic music, happy, islands, and the soaring eagle as well, a very good sign for the Brains. I have to wonder if they got the soaring eagle this week because their tribe won the challenge? Is the eagle foreshadowing to the episode challenge winners? Or, is the eagle a good sign for the entire season? We'll have to watch closely to who gets the soaring bird of prey.

Liz comments how she's happy to be on the Brains tribe and they are starting with a definite advantage ~ nice comments on her, michel, walking the walk!

...then Debbie comments on how Peter looks like Obama. Peter rolls with it and has a confessional about it, but he ends it with:
if they feel better being crushed by Obama, then so be it.

Regarding Neal's confessional, he tells us about himself, then Debbie, a whole other level of craziness, and then talks about her talking smack re: fire, but not delivering, then ends the confessional: Looking back at past seasons, it seems that the really smart folks have some sort of kryptonite so I’m a little concerned about being on the Brain tribe. It could be complete and utter madness.. I took this as a down note, and a negative for Neal. At this point I don't know if he's cynical, or a realist? I'm perplexed regarding him...

Debbie does go on and on regarding her many vast jobs and experiences. Boy, I have to say she does remind me of Coach, and she's definitely a character.

Cut to the Beauty tribe: Where we hear lots of happy upbeat, islandy music, and we see bug colony's busy at work, which makes me think they are going to be happy and busy and work well together, and that is just what we found. I was so happy to see that Nick can be amiable and upbeat! I thought his video was pure arrogance and negative. He had the first confessional at Beauty about how wonderful and beautiful everything is and how they are all working so well together...."nothing could go wrong". I knew this meant something, turns out it was the prelude to the escape of the chickens.

Tai questions why he is here and ends it with, I think personalities may come out, we all have beautiful inside and outside. (At least that is how I heard it?) Well, said, Tai.

I found it hilarious when the girls were speculating as to the jobs of the guys and Michele said that Nick was probably definitely a model of some sort, proving that Nick had insight and self awareness with his first confessional about how he has had it easier in life because of his looks. Funny? I take all of this that Michele likes what she sees with Nick....

Michele had the next confessional about being self aware as a bartender and then spoke about all the guys, saying how Nick was the tall, dreamy guy that would see her at her dirtiest. Clearly, Michele likes Nick...

Michele aligns with all the girls, and Julia thinks that the guys won't align all together. Then after we see the girls all talking about the guys, the guys do the very same thing and start talking about all the girls. Comical!

Then Caleb looks at all the beauty's in the tribe and wonders why Tai is on their tribe...but he figures it out...like maybe there is a lot more to him than we really see... *Excellent insight regarding Julia's words that they would not align altogether, Michel. I agree with you!

Then, Tai tells us that he loves all living creatures, especially plants, then goes on to tell us his story. How he fled Viet Nam during the war, and escaped on an over crowded boat with nothing to eat and little to drink for 11 days, and made it somewhere close to Cambodia, and lived there as a refugee for a year, until coming to America. Then he tells us of his love for adventures and how it's a once in a lifetime chance to be there!

It's easy to see the beauty in Tai, he's so charming and gentle! But, I do think he is a little hyper, as some of his tribe mates have noticed. I think Michele commented on it.

Back to the Brawn tribe and I did not even notice if there was music:

We see Darnell trying to make fire with Cydney. Then get a confessional from Jason commenting on the kind of guy he is, do the physical stuff first, he ends it by talking about "Blondie" and how he has no sympathy for her as he has his own wife and kids." He is certainly a "cut to the chase guy". We see him go to Scot and they concur, and he states, you, me, and Jenny. Scot agrees.

Then we see Jason talking to Cydney and sealing the agreement with a shake, and his confessional continues. He speaks of alliances and says he wants as many as possible and that they are only truthful if he needs them to be, they all could be, but, they all could be bull. I will make that decision when I need to.

Then, we see him talking to Jenny and aligning with her as well, and after he shakes her hands, he asks, You don't happen to have any matches, do you? hahaha! I had a chuckle at that, and he is disarming me with that humor of his.

(My favorite part of the episode was when Scot and Jason were talking about how big to build the shelter and Scot said there are only 5 of us, and Jason said, 6. And, Scot commented he was on the Brawn tribe!)

When Darnell and Cydney agreed to watch out for each other, Darnell liked Alecia but she wanted to stick with the guys and get the 2 girls out first....I was happy that this was predictable from her intro video.

Will Cydney be so predictable for the rest of the game?

When Darnell went to use the bathroom right out in front of their beach, I said, uh oh, that could be the reason they get rid of him? Seriously, it would be reason enough for me to get rid of someone! Yuck, at least walk a mile down the beach....please!

Darnell did have a good sense of humor about it though. #reading material

Cut to the happy music Gondol tribe, Beauty's...

We see the chicken's escape and then we get a contrasting confessional from his last one from Nick regarding the escape of the chickens, how they are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, but they got 2 back, 66%, he'll take it.

Tai suggests tying them up by the leg, the girls are happy, they are so much happier, and Nick says to them all, they'll be dead in 2 days! I found that funny...

Anna comments on Tai's nature and she is drawn to him, has 3 girls but needs one more....would like to work with Tai. Then we see Anna talk to Julia about him, and they really bond, and are so excited! I felt this confessional was out of order, and that this probably happened earlier? Regardless Julia tells us how she will be underestimated,
and she predicts the 3 girls could do really well. As you noted earlier, Julia's assessment of the guys not aligning tightly together was underlined by Caleb's confessional, so I have to wonder if her assessment of the "3 of them sticking together" will indeed have them doing really well? I'm optimistic with these three.

Julia then tells Anna that she's 99% sure Caleb was on BB. Anna has a confessional about how that helps her because Caleb had an alliance of 9 and he stayed loyal to that, that's really important to us!

So Anna, has the 3 girls then she comments on wanting to pull Tai in, then Caleb. Will Nick be the first boot from Beauty?

Caleb admits he was on BB to the girls, and he tells them he didn't want it to ruin his game.

Then, we get the Caleb confessional. Caleb is seriously getting a hero edit. The editors are loving him. He was stellar in the intro, I thought. He had his priorities straight with gathering important stuff in the first 2 minutes, the chickens, the huge bunch of bananas, chopped the raft down to gather everything on, then he ended it all with fun and a flip into the water. During this confessional, there is HERO music playing underlining his character.

He's more than the character, Beast Mode Cowboy, from BB, and he wants them to see it...(see him in the palm tree high up chopping palm fronds and Michele comments that he's on the right tribe, he's beautiful up there...)

I was in the military right outta hs, I was a prison guard in Baghdad, Iraq, so I have been through a lot of things that a lot of people have not had to go through, if I am in a competition where I am standing on my tippy toes for 3 hrs then I am going to stand on my tippy toes for 3 hours...until the last person gives up.

Then we see Caleb making fire, and he succeeds! Hear the hero music still playing, and they all cheer and celebrate, happily!

Living my daily life and being from the outdoors this is home to me...
I know what it takes to make a fire, i’ll do whatever I have to do to get to what I want. I believe I am probably mentally stronger than anyone in this game.

Caleb is the dream Jiffy/EPMB contestant. He's got solid values, foundation, he's comical, he's a very hard worker, he's buff and handsome, and he is "Beast Mode" in challenges, or will be. He'll give it his all for the team.

Then we cut to the Brains tribe: We see them working well, and Debbie has a confessional about working hard for her and Joe, we have the wisdom to know that before we go strategizing to win the game we’ve got to stay alive. This is S, you actually have to S here. I think Debbie hits on one of the main theme's of this season, perhaps, that was introduced in the intro, the harsh physical conditions. We hear that she is planning on sticking with Joe for a long time. Possible foreshadowing?

Then, we hear Neal and Liz smack talk her out in the ocean, she's "chatty, chatty, chatty and will not shut up...

Liz in conf. notes that she just might annoy everyone to death...(I feel that Liz is the narrator for Brains, fwiw.) Neal says that they won't flip out over any stupid thing... ~ foreshadowing

Then, we see Neal start talking about the geriatrics, and what do you think of an alliance of 4, the children? Neal has a confessional about how he thinks the 4 young ones will be quicker mentally, as well as physically. When he talks to Peter about his plan, Peter is all over it, Neal shushes him, the doctor, about sound traveling well over water, and then Peter asks who he wants to get out first, and Neal replies that they will see how they do in challenges. (they both did great in the challenge ~ winning).
Peter deferred to Neal's plan, and so did Liz...they were eager to go along with it, thus making Neal their defacto leader....hmmmm?

Then Peter echoes the plan with the low hanging fruit, Debbie and Joe, they will be eaten first.

We see the sun set, and then the happy music, Beauty's...

Then we get Tai telling us he had to go look for the idol. This was so perplexing to me. Clearly, Tai must have felt like the odd one out, and he went to search for the idol. But, we had heard earlier all about how he loved all living creatures, especially the plants, and was concerned about cutting off their limbs, then we see him up root young trees, single-handedly....he threw them back in, but??? He manhandled those living creatures for his own selfish reasons, so I found this perplexing. He is playing hard, and perhaps a little too hard.

They catch him, and it ends with a conf. about he screwed up. They are all on to him. NOT good for Tai. Anna tells us, he's out, and so does Michele. Enemy #1. *great observations with perhaps Tai going out multiple times to look for the idol, michel!

Then, cut to ominous music, woodwinds, and see the glaring sun, see the hot horizon...a nod to the extreme harsh conditions...BRAINS day 2, see them on the beach sweating like crazy, doing palm braiding....dripping sweat.

Aubrey: It’s so hot out here I don’t think you even realize how hot it is in the moment. You realize when you start moving slower, it kind of scrambles your brain, you can’t escape it. I think the heat might be one of the biggest factors in this game.

Aubrey is being perceptive as the intro has told us. But, she's having trouble adapting....as we see...She complained that she didn’t have her faculties with her to even sit still and take care of herself, Debbie was attentive to her....can you guys just like help me? With like fruit and water? Neal: sure, just lay down...debbie: yes, Neal's right, just lay down and relax....Debbie has a confessional about it.

She goes to the others for help, and Debbie is sensitive, and Neal is helpful.

...and Aubrey is grateful to her, and wonders if she brought this on herself?

Liz recaps and is dubious, if she did it now, she'll do it again. Neal has the same sentiments and questions if this will be a repeat of the first brains beauty and brawn where the brains goes nuts and just got shellac’d?

Then, we see the sun go down behind clouds and get more ominous music, and we have the bug incident. Alecia, suggesting it's just water in her ear and Jenny snaps, my ear is bleeding! Alecia is worried it could be her if they lose.... We see it unfold, Scot expresses concern for the challenge, and then it comes out. Cydney, the pre-med student, screams when she sees it, EWWWWWW....let's Scot handle it. Hmmmm? Don't know if medicine will be her forte?

Cydney comments on the bug incident.

Then Jenny has the confessional, come on, bring it, I'm ready, 39 days!

*Regarding Cydney's hoodie, she had it on during the marooning, it was tied around her waist. fyi.

Cut to the challenge...When Jiffy began to speak and he commented: where you will be the first person voted out of this game, that is a distinction that nobody ever wants, see Neal shake his head no, as if he will be the first person voted out of the brains tribe, at least it gave me that impression. I got a lot of Positive vibes from Julia...

As you noticed when the Brawns delegated the puzzle to Alecia and she told them she wasn't good at them, that's certainly a bad sign. Will they continue to make bad choices? (*they are the Brawn tribe

Here is the dialogue from the challenge:

Beauty in the boat first, then aubrey in......darnell loses mask...Jenny jumps in without a mask... Michele has first paddle...Caleb saves it....Brawn having alot of trouble, Jenny has first paddle, paddles get deeper with each one. Aubrey has the third, Jenny has their second, beauty has their second, then Jason dives in...Aubrey with the fourth, did it all herself, beauty tribe is back...working together nicely, takes everybody, brains tribe closer...brain tribe is back...brawn tribe still in the water, has fourth...beauty tribe, that is team work....brawn tribe here, brawn tribe digging, beauty has it, clip in, put on wheels, brains are in, brawn is in...brain tribe now in the lead....Beauty tribe has slid off the track, hard to get going...brawn has 4 wheels, beauty now in dead last...brain tribe untying the puzzle box......taxing challenge for everybody, never give up in this game....Liz and Aubrey doing a big lead, Brawn now in second......beauty has blown a huge lead but quickly gaining on Brawn, puzzle ...Jenny says get the f’g peices to Alecia, who is just standing there...

~keep digging beauty....beauty going with puzzle...Caleb drops the box at the platform....Jenny doing all the work for the brawn tribe, Scot comes in...Anna and Julia trying to figure out the clues to solve it....brains win....hug...

congrats, see Aubrey, then Beauty, nobody going home, see Caleb, Tai catches the flint...see Alecia...see Darnell in the middle of the screen.

Brawn men, said we need to communicate....Jenny crying.

Positive vibes with: Aubrey, Caleb, Julia, Anna, Jenny. Negative vibes: Alicia, Darnell

Alecia has first conf. post challenge. Admits that she's not a "puzzle wizard", and her only chance is to go after Darnell. I think she's weak, she's a talker, she's not mentally strong, but she's a schemer....I think she's the more dangerous of the two.

Darnell has first conf, about growing up in Chicago, he accepts the blame, knows he's in trouble. I didn't feel that Darnell fought hard enough at camp, post challenge, at all. But, then again, maybe we didn't see it...? We did see him trying to bargain with the guys...If you save me, I'll promise loyalty, don't have to worry about the merge....blah, blah...

Regardless, Scot gets the next conf. and says it's between Darnell and Alecia, but from his vantage point, it was all Darnell who was the "dead weight".

Goes to tell Alecia that she'll be safe, but she doesn't trust him. When the guys were talking to her about the idol, she wouldn't tell them that she didn't have it....I think that she's trouble, far more than Darnell, very weak and not mentally sharp for challenges. Clearly, do not understand how she got on the "brawn" tribe.

Cydney has the last confessional, and says that she wants Darnell to stay, and that she'll try to point that out at TC....cut to TC.

Things I noticed: Jason had no trouble calling both Darnell and Alecia out, noting you don't express doubt, if you do, you have lost before you start...

Jenny empathized with Darnell, but it seems they were set in stone, although it was Kyle Jason that questioned it to Jenny. I felt they tied the vote on purpose to flush out an idol if there was one, then when they re-voted, they voted out Darnell.

Thoughts:

Beauty: Happy, hard workers, making the most of what they have, most confessionals in the intro, initial thoughts: All got a good introduction. I think the key player could be Anna. Even though Julia only got one confessional, I feel like she's a solid contender. She's got a strong screen presence as well. But Michele has an affinity for the girls and Nick as well.
While Nick could be the narrator I feel a lot of this tribes vantage point is coming from the girls, and specifically, Anna.

Brawn: Powerful forces in the tribe: Scot and Jason. The real player in the bunch=Jason. Wonder if any of the girls are significant to the season? Nice speculation though on Jenny. I would be so happy if this were the case because I really do like her and she does have a nice screen presence. I am reserved regarding Cydney and Jenny. It appears that Jason likes Jenny the best of the girls. I think the guys may have wanted to get Darnell out because either he didn't "fit", or they wanted to draw Cydney in closer. I feel that Cydney could be their little soldier? Jenny seems the most on the ball, most mature, committed. Would love to see her go far.
Wonderful comments on the brawns, michel.

Brains: This tribe is the most perplexing to me. We hear about the "Children Alliance" vs. the "geriatrics". But, I also get a vibe that someone will flip, (alliances revealed?) and I agree, after this episode it appears it could indeed be Aubry. And, you are right to notice that we never saw Aubry agreeing to the Children's alliance....hmmmm? I have mixed feelings about Liz, Neal ~ negative vibes. I think Peter looks like he's in good stead for the time being. I have to ask, is this tribe going to tolerate a "female Coach"?

I felt that we started out with 2 confessionals from each tribe that epitomized their tribes. We then went to the respective camps with happy music, seeing them all start out with stars in their eyes, eagerly, happy, full of optimism and anticipation, then we return to camps with their first set backs. For the Brawn: setbacks like weak players, bugs in the ears; for the Brains: Aubrey's dehydration, anxiety attack, and Beauty's escape of the chickens.

I think the theme of this season is going to be the horribly harsh conditions, extreme temperatures and humidity and how Survivor is really about Surviving first, as Debbie told us and as Jason told us. Will it truly be more about "outlasting" the elements this season? It definitely will not just be about surviving the challenges, the "others", but also the elements and clearly the elements could be the most formidable of them all.

I will end with noting that this season has a tremendous amount of BIG physical people: Scot, Jason, Cydney, Nick, Caleb, Peter...with all of the big strong physical threats around, there are targets for everyone. It makes me feel that it will be a female that wins this season!

Wonderful first assessments and observations as always, michel. Great thoughts regarding your ones that are proving themselves. And, I also like the theme of "actions speak louder than words". If that was the basis of the winning edit, I would say after this episode that Aubry and Julia have the best chances! I was so happy to see Aubry do so well at the challenge, I'm rooting for her too.

You know there is always so much about the editing, it can be used to lead us or help us find the winner, OR it can be used to MISlead us regarding the winner. Just with the 5 minute intro, when Scot told us he'd get along with the people that were strong, and we saw a shot of Darnell and Jason, which led me to believe, falsely, that Darnell would be safe. But, in retrospect, we can see that the camera really focused on Jason, and Darnell was in the foreground. So, it's very tricky. Last season, the editing supported a Spencer win, I thought, at least until the final episode. So, this season, I am going to really try to be patient with my contenders.