LAST EDITED ON 02-28-16 AT 00:21 AM (EST)

Hey Michel, glad to see you're doing the editing analysis again. Since I am unspoiled again, I can participate a little more this year.

I think you hit the nail on the head with the analysis of the Brawn Tribe. It seems increasingly unlikely that the winner could possibly come out of there. The worst moment of the night for them (from an editing standpoint) was the moment Alecia made fire with the flint. There is no doubt that the scene is meant to portray the entire tribe as lazy... The image of all their shoes hanging over the edge of the shelter while they slept is way too strong and direct.

Jason is obviously the biggest character but he's not painted sympathetically at all. Or even that strategic, really. I admit, I kinda hate Jason and want him off my TV screen, so maybe my bias is coming through. Scot doesn't really have a personal story and every strategic moment is very basic, repeat-the-party-line kind of talk. If Scot is tight with Jennifer, why didn't they highlight that from his POV more? I thought Cydney had a decent chance in Episode 1, but the fact that they completely gloss over her role in the Jennifer boot is really really really bad for her. If she is playing the important swing vote role, more of the entire discussion should be from her POV. All we get is a confessional before Tribal. It's not enough. I can understand situations like Natalie from SJDS getting glossed over when Jeremy goes home, but Cydney was a swing vote.

The only emerging character seems to be Alecia. And while I don't give Survivor enough credit to do a turnaround winner story, she's probably going to be an Eliza-esque scrappy underdog story. I would love it if Alecia did come back and win, but once again... This isn't The Genius. Survivor's editing style is much more brain-dead.

Brains Tribe is a little confusing because almost everyone isn't being portrayed super sympathetically. I think the lynchpin is going to figure out what's going to happen with Liz vs. Debbie/Joe. Liz either has Sophie upside or she is going to be a victim of the old/young split. We are going to find out pretty quickly, I suspect. They're highlighting Liz over Aubry for a reason. I like Liz so far (but I always love smartypants women types on this show) but I can't tell if the general audience is supposed to.

I don't think we're supposed to view Debbie as being particularly credible and they went out of their way to point out Joe's mistakes. On the other hand, they let them have the floor and basically spell out how foolish Liz's inventions and ideas are, even something as basic as wanting to boil water. Since the editors have put in time establishing Debbie and Liz the most, I suspect Joe is going to be the casualty of that showdown and the ladies will battle on into the tribe swap.

Neal and Peter come off as most winner-like thus far on Brains. Neal has given very general observations, while Peter has been more specific regarding his strategy with Debbie. As a winner pick, I like Peter more than Neal at this point.

If I had to wager right now, I would guess the winner is coming out of the Beauty Tribe. They are getting waaaaaay too pristine of an edit for a beauty tribe and it is suspicious.

Caleb and Tai are getting strong, likeable big character edits. I was expecting a more wacky and dopey Caleb edit, so the more carefree and fun edit is a good sign for him. He seems poised for a pretty decent run. Doesn't smell like a winner's edit yet but you never know. I feel similarly about Tai. A little buffooonish strategy-wise, which is a red flag. But he's got a good story and is someone for the audience to get behind.

I don't think Nick has a prayer of winning. His opening confessional was just AWFUL AWFUL AWFUL for him, the way it was phrased, potentially portraying him as arrogant. I definitely get what he is saying there, but it's such a statement that can be taken two ways, that the editors would pick something different if he went on to win. And then he goes invisible in Episode 2. Not good. He's either a Joaquin and is gone early or is a mid-merge Mini Boss.

Anna had a strong Episode 1 but also went invisible this time. There was virtually no strategy talk from Beauty this episode and the story they picked didn't necessarily require Anna, so I'm not going to deduct too many points. Natalie in SJDS didn't always have things to do in non-TC pre-merge episodes. She's someone to monitor.

Julia is a little more consistent than Anna, being a little more present as a narrator in both episodes. I don't feel like there's been a lot of substance to it yet... I don't feel like I really know who Julia is yet. Kinda feels like a minor highlight for an early boot right now, but my mind could change.

This is going to sound weird, but I get this weird feeling that Michele might be the winner. If I recall correctly, of the three Beauty girls in Episode 1, the men (Caleb and Tai?) picked Michele out specifically as someone they could work with. I feel the editors wanted us to notice Michele in particular. She was present for Episode 2's discussion as well. Maybe I'm completely barking up the wrong tree, but something smells funny. Why are we supposed to notice Michele?

Like others, I get the strong impression that a woman wins this season. Not just because of the way Jeff previewed the season, but a lot of the women just have stronger edits than the men. And you guys know how Survivor is.